Ken’s Take: Does 52-46 really constitute a “landslide” ?
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“Obama ran four points better nationally than John Kerry did in 2004 and 2.5 points better than Al Gore did in 2000. These small changes on the margin meant all the difference between winning and losing [by a “landslide’].
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Source: WSJ, “How the President-Elect Did It”, Rove, Nov. 6, 2008
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122593304225103509.html
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November 6, 2008 at 9:53 am |
I saw on reporter say that Prop 8. “nearly lost” in California. The vote there was 52% in favor and 48% opposed.
November 6, 2008 at 11:35 am |
Perhaps it just feels like a landslide when you take into account that at a time of war a 46-year old black man with only a few years experience as a Senator beat a long time, well respected Senator who happens to be a war hero?
1) The Bradley effect is a myth. We will NEVER know if there was a racial component for many voters. Why lie to pollsters when it is just as legitimate to say you are a McCain voter for many good reasons? I would be very interested to see how many voters supported Hillary but could not pull the trigger for Barack. Of course that is not proof of racism, but it would be an interesting number that probably sheds some light on the race issue.
2) The Palin effect has also been talked about in strange terms. While she did ‘fire up the base’ I wonder how many economic republicans she turned off. I have never seen such a stream of party heavyweights and journalists (Brooks, Powell, Parker, Will, etc.) cross the line so publicly.
3) Don’t underewstimate the youth vote. The current republican coalition will not be competitive as younger voters have a louder voice. Don’t just look at the small percentage rise in college age voters, but remember that young professionals that skipped ’04 become more likely to vote in every election. They may become more economically conserrvative as they earn more money, but I would suggest that they are more used to a multi-cultural world and may vote more like city-dwellers who have been turned off by the divisiveness of the repubs.
Hopefully republicans can finally have it out – is this party about small, efficient government or non-sense like Joe the Plumber and other ‘social’ issues?
Despite Bush’s low ratings this was always McCain’s race to lose. And he lost.
November 6, 2008 at 11:54 am |
56,494,802 Americans voted No to socialism and “global citizenship.” Let’s not forget that.
November 6, 2008 at 3:01 pm |
James, please first refer to the 50,999,897 (the majority of the popular vote) that voted in 2000 against this incompetent regime today.
November 6, 2008 at 5:34 pm |
Yes, and 40% of those people don’t pay income taxes.