Archive for November 21st, 2008

Dow = 7,500 … Where in the world is President-elect Obama?

November 21, 2008

As I predicted on the day before the election, if Obama won, the Dow would fall to 7,500.  Well, it did.

Of course, there are mega-financial pressures completely unrelated to Obama’s election. 

But, he left some undetonated campaign grenades that unsettle the market.  Will he raise taxes on businesses and investors next year?  Last word from him: yes.  Will he protect UAW jobs in Detroit with a bailout?  Last word: yes.  Who will be hisTreasury Secretary?  Last word: hold your pants on.

At minimum, Obama should name Paulson’s successor and pledge to hold tax rates where they are until they expire naturally in 2010.

If he wanted to do something bolder, he should cut capital gains tax rates to zero for stocks bought from now until the end of 2009.

Regardless, he’s got to quit playing paddycake with Hillary, come out of hiding, and give investors some reason to believe.

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Note: I stand by my other market prediction: if Franken wins and Chambliss loses — the Dow will have it’s largest 1-day decline ever — at least 1,000 points.   Hope this one goes unverifiable.

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Opinion: Boost the national debt and make the next generation pay for it!

November 21, 2008

I used to think that the escalating national debt was a serious economic problem — creating an enormous, painful burden that would  be shifted to our sons & daughters.

I’ve stopped fretting.  Why ?

Exit polls indicate that collegians craved “change” and voted overwhelmingly for Obama — at least 2 to 1. 

Obama’s ambitious agenda of government programs will cost trillions of dollars. 

Rather than raising taxes on the folks who don’t want change, why not shift the burden to those who do?

It’s called poetic justice.   

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Replace the Big 3 CEOs ? I don't think that's the answer …

November 21, 2008

Based on their poor performances at the Congressional hearings this week — including the tone deaf moves of flying in on G4s and wearing bling to the hearings — there is a groundswell calling for the heads of the Big 3 automakers. 

The logic: it’s all the CEOs fault.  Replace them with smarter, more effective CEOs and everything will be ok.

Problem with the logic: Though Waggoner has been at GM forever and CEO for a long time, Mulally came to Ford a little over 2 years ago (from Boeing) and Nardelli came to Chrysler a little over a year ago (from Home Depot, after a career at GE).

In other words: TWO OF THE THREE ARE NEW !

Perhaps that’s why some of their answers weren’t as crisp and authoritative as one would expect.

My opinion: these are very complicated businesses with many constraints (burdensome union contracts, government regulations, legacy costs).  It would be difficult for any mere mortal to jump in, grasp the business, and overcome the constraints.

Who’s on the shortlist of replacement CEOs? Pity the poor souls.  Anybody who would take the job should be eliminated from consideration on the basis of poor judgment.

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Replace the Big 3 CEOs ? I don’t think that’s the answer …

November 21, 2008

Based on their poor performances at the Congressional hearings this week — including the tone deaf moves of flying in on G4s and wearing bling to the hearings — there is a groundswell calling for the heads of the Big 3 automakers. 

The logic: it’s all the CEOs fault.  Replace them with smarter, more effective CEOs and everything will be ok.

Problem with the logic: Though Waggoner has been at GM forever and CEO for a long time, Mulally came to Ford a little over 2 years ago (from Boeing) and Nardelli came to Chrysler a little over a year ago (from Home Depot, after a career at GE).

In other words: TWO OF THE THREE ARE NEW !

Perhaps that’s why some of their answers weren’t as crisp and authoritative as one would expect.

My opinion: these are very complicated businesses with many constraints (burdensome union contracts, government regulations, legacy costs).  It would be difficult for any mere mortal to jump in, grasp the business, and overcome the constraints.

Who’s on the shortlist of replacement CEOs? Pity the poor souls.  Anybody who would take the job should be eliminated from consideration on the basis of poor judgment.

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The perils of one man, one vote …

November 21, 2008

Excerpted from Zogby Poll, “How Obama Got Elected”, Nov. 19, 2008
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The Survey

The sample: 512 Obama Voters 11/13/08-11/15/08
97.1% High School Graduate or higher, 55% College Graduates
12 simple Multiple Choice Questions
Margin of Error MOE +/- 4.4 points

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Most Damning57.4% could NOT correctly say which party controls congress (50/50 shot just by guessing)

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Talk about being well-informed

88.4% denied that Obama said his policies would likely bankrupt the coal industry and make energy rates skyrocket (25% chance by guessing)

82.6% denied that Barack Obama won his first election by getting opponents kicked off the ballot (25% chance by guessing)

71.8% could NOT correctly say Joe Biden quit a previous campaign because of plagiarism (25% chance by guessing)

56.1% denied that Obama started his political career at the home of two former members of the Weather Underground (25% chance by guessing).

But…..

83.6%%  identified Sarah Palin as the person on which their party spent $150,000 in clothes

86.9 % thought that Palin said that she could see Russia from her “house,” even though that was Tina Fey who said that!!

94.8%  identified Palin as the one with a pregnant teenage daughter

http://www.howobamagotelected.com/

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Zogby’s Reply to Criticism of the Survey

“We stand by the results our survey work on behalf of John Ziegler, as we stand by all of our work. We reject the notion that this was a push poll because it very simply wasn’t. It was a legitimate effort to test the knowledge of voters who cast ballots for Barack Obama in the Nov. 4 election. Push polls are a malicious effort to sway public opinion one way or the other, while message and knowledge testing is quite another effort of public opinion research that is legitimate inquiry and has value in the public square. In this case, the respondents were given a full range of responses and were not pressured or influenced to respond in one way or another. This poll was not designed to hurt anyone, which is obvious as it was conducted after the election. The client is free to draw his own conclusions about the research, as are bloggers and other members of society. But Zogby International is a neutral party in this matter. We were hired to test public opinion on a particular subject and with no ax to grind, that’s exactly what we did. We don’t have to agree or disagree with the questions, we simply ask them and provide the client with a fair and accurate set of data reflecting public opinion.” – John Zogby

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1642 

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Where America buys wine … and some recommendations

November 21, 2008

Excerpted from WSJ, “Costco Cabernets”, Nov. 15, 2008

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10% of all the money that Americans spend on wine at stores in the U.S.  is spent at warehouse club stores.

Costco has become America’s wine store.  In the U.S., Costco warehouse-club stores sold more than 75 million bottles of wine for$1.1 billion, making it the nation’s top retailer of wine.

After a slow start, Wal-Mart is trying to catch up. More than 2,000 of its stores now have beer and wine licenses and of the 594 Sam’s Club stores, 453 sell wine.  

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Some Cabernets — carried at the clubs — recommended by the authors:

J. Lohr Winery Estates “Seven Oaks” 2006 (Paso Robles). $11.52. Good/Very Good. Best value.
Pleasant and grapey, with some acidity and blackberry fruit. Nicely dry finish, with some herbs and pepper. Well-balanced. This will be drunk merrily. We didn’t like the 2004.

Charles Krug Winery 2005 (Yountville, Napa Valley). $20.99. Very Good.
Lovely dark color, with cedar on the nose. Ripe, dark fruit, excellent tannins and some aging potential. A complete wine, with layers of flavor — Bordeaux-like structure and rich California fruit.

Simi Winery 2005 (Alexander Valley). $20.48.Very Good. 
Looks rich and even smells like ripe, chewy fruit, with blackberries, blueberries and savory spices of the kind we’d put into stuffing. Earthy, with good tannins and a little bit of bittersweet chocolate. Big, rich, friendly wine.  

Raymond Vineyard & Cellar “Reserve” 2005 (Napa Valley). $22.99. Very Good.
Lovely fruit and nicely dry. Tastes classy, with some structure and even a hint of tobacco, like a fine Bordeaux. A wine of some stature, appropriate to a fine meal.

Sterling Vineyards 2005 (Napa Valley). $20.86. Good/Very Good.
Crisp, clean and nicely acidic. Mouth-watering, with some minerals and a nice little bite at the end. Good with food because it’s not too heavy. John thought it was thin; Dottie thought it was simply restrained.

Full article:
 http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB122669984967629523-lMyQjAxMDI4MjE2NjYxOTY5Wj.html

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"Believe"??? Battered Retailers Holding on to Hope

November 21, 2008

Excerpted from the Washington Post, “Tapping Into Shoppers’ Psyches: Battered Retailers Turning to Sentimental Sales Pitches”, by Ylan Q. Mui, November 11, 2008

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The economic downturn is rattling U.S. shoppers as their wallets shrink and credit dries up. Retailers, who just reported their worst October in decades, fear disaster. The battle for customers — and survival — is on, and stores have little margin for error. With Wal-Mart dominating the race to rock-bottom prices, those who can’t compete must get creative.

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“Believe,” says Macy’s.

Peter Sachse, president of Macy’s Corporate Marketing, said executives began brainstorming the idea shortly after Christmas last year: Believe in Santa, believe in goodness, believe your 401(k) will one day bounce back. Believe in Macy’s. Sachse said the theme felt even more relevant as the economy began to falter.

“It is this stable thing out there in this maelstrom that is going on around the consumer,” he said. “I think it’s going to strike a chord in America.”

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Surely, the thinking goes, some shoppers must need relief from wallowing in their economic misery. Women’s clothing chain Talbots is hoping they’ll want to escape to private parties at its stores.

At these “hostess events,” a loyal customer throws the party, and the store shuts down to the public. The company provides hors d’oeuvres, drinks and, in some cases, even a stylist to help women update their looks. All the hostess has to do is bring her friends and their charge cards. Apparently, they are.

About 70 parties have been held so far, with 60 to 200 shoppers at each event, she said. Talbots is expected to roll them out to all its stores by the first week of December. The parties are supposed to build relationships between shoppers and employees, which the retailer hopes will translate into higher sales.

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But it remains to be seen whether warm and fuzzy feelings translate into bottom-line growth during a year of financial crisis. Darrell Rigby, a partner at consulting firm Bain & Co., said many shoppers are on tight budgets this year and may not be swayed by their psyches.

“Economic downturns have a way of turning consumer purchasing hierarchies upside down,” he said. “Self-actualization and esteem-building don’t seem nearly as important as taking care of basic needs.”

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It’s a lesson that Target has learned as sales have slumped at stores open at least a year, a key measure of a retailer’s health. Target became a cultural icon with its stylish, eye-catching ads and cheap-chic clothes, which make up as much as 22 percent of its revenue. But as shoppers cut back on such indulgences, Target found its message veered off-key.

So this Christmas, it is spotlighting gifts that cost less than $25, such as vintage board games and makeup brushes. It quickly matched Wal-Mart’s move last month to sell several popular toys for $10 or less. Recent TV ads feature the slogan “A new day. A new way to save” and price is more prominent at new signs in the stores.

“We are emphasizing value in all communications with our guests,” Target chief executive Gregg Steinhafel said in a recent meeting with analysts.

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Although price cuts are welcome news for consumers, they eat away at retailers’ profit margins. To keep its budget in line, Target has also cut its payroll and employee overtime. It plans to open only 70 stores next fiscal year and fewer the following year.

According to Piper Jaffray analyst Jeffrey Klinefelter, fighting the price war will be costly to retailers but that those who do not enter the fray risk losing sales.

“We do not expect the consumer to trade up this season,” he wrote, “especially in the midst of significant economic uncertainty.”

Edit by DAF

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Full article:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/10/AR2008111002331_pf.html

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Getting Cozy With Customers …

November 21, 2008

Excerpted from HBS Discussion Leaders “How CEO’s Should Work with Customers” by John Quelch, September 22, 2008

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Customers are the source of all cash flow. Organic growth depends on developing relationships with new and existing customers. And future growth prospects are baked into stock market valuations of companies.

An increasingly high percentage of Fortune 500 CEOs have not come up the ranks through marketing or sales…actual customer expertise is typically a mile wide and an inch deep.

Marketing expertise depends on customer insights…To be customer-oriented, executives must get out and meet customers on their home turf – in their homes, on job sites, in their offices. in stores.   ..

Over time, the need for customer insights should mean a higher percentage of general managers coming up through the marketing ranks..

Edit by SAC

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Full article:
http://discussionleader.hbsp.com/quelch/2008/09/how_ceos_should_work_with_cust.html

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