Archive for December 10th, 2008

"Stop those foreclosures, now !" … Nope, that’s a bad idea.

December 10, 2008

Ken’s Take:

“Stop those foreclosures, now !” is one of three recent mortgage-related refrains that make me scratch my head.

The first is a variant of the above one: “we’ve got to keep people in their homes” — with the emphasis on “their”.  Seems to me that folks are conveniently confusing “ownership” with “occupancy”.  Some lug who makes no downpayment and makes at most a couple of mortgage payments at promotional interest rates doesn’t own anything.  He started with no equity, built no equity, and may even be in a negative equity position.  It’s not “his” home simply because he squatted there for awhile.  Geez.

The second came from the mouth of Ben Bernanke himself: “Putting these people through the foreclosure process (instead of cutting rates & principle) will put a permanent, detrimental mark on their credit records.”  No kidding, Ben.  Isn’t it the role of credit records to report to prospective lenders that somebody has a history of stiffing people who lent them money in the past.  Seems fraudulent to me that the government puts together a process that spackles over that serious flaw.

Now, here’s one of hundreds of reasons that we shouldn’t “stop those foreclosures now.” …

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Excerpted from IBD, “Bad-Loan Lipstick”, December 09, 2008

Foreclosures: A new federal report shows that most bailed-out borrowers slip back into default within six months.

It seems agreed on all sides that bad home loans got us into our economic crisis. So, goes one argument, wouldn’t it make sense to modify those loans into good ones — that is, loans not in default? That would seem to get at the root cause of the trouble. Besides, help for struggling homeowners is good politics. Sounds like a plan.

The chairwoman of the FDIC and  leading Democrats in Congress want to modify some 2 million high-risk loans by [cutting interest rates, lengthening terms, and even cutting the principle loan balance].  

This week,the Comptroller of the Currency released data showing that … 53% of the mortgages modified by lenders end up back in default –usually within 6 months.   

Were the loans so badly underwritten that borrowers simply could not afford them, even with reduced payments?

After al, they went to borrowers who put little or nothing down, and who lacked the credit history and documented income that lenders would have demanded in saner times.

These loans started to sour in good times. And easing up on their terms now won’t cure their fundamental flaws. 

For these toxic loans, the best thing to do is to let them run their course into foreclosure, and work to contain the damage.

Full article:
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=313719048815277

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They’d rather play than eat … huh??

December 10, 2008

Excerpted from Marketing Daily “How We Cut: Restaurants First, Video Games Last” by Sarah Mahoney, November 12, 2008

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While there’s no shortage of consumers who are dialing down their spending-.  Guess what consumers axe first when they are worried.

When asked how they planned to trim the fat, dining out is in the hot seat–with 57% of respondents saying they plan to spend less.

Clothes were the next casualty, with 54% cutting back–followed by entertainment, with 50%.

Somewhat safer were beauty products and music, both identified as categories to cut by 44% of the survey, and movies at 43%.

Only 39% say they plan to spend less on toys, and 35% on video games…

How long consumers will continue to tweak their purchasing habits is anyone’s guess, but as far as people are concerned right now, the changes are for the long haul…

Younger consumers are the least hopeful…Those in the 65-plus category come in second in the pessimism parade, with only 7% saying they believe that recovery in less than a year is possible.

Overall, men tend to be less likely to believe we are in a recession, and more likely to believe the economy will bounce back fast.

Edit by SAC 

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Full article:
http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=94580

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What Downturn? Luxury Brands Keep Consumers Dreaming

December 10, 2008

Excerpted from Knowledge @ Wharton “Luxury Brands: Marketing the Upscale During a Downturn“, November 12, 2008

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As 2009 shapes up to be the most challenging year in more than a generation for luxury items such as high-end apparel and fragrances, marketers’ plans for targeting aspirational 16-year-olds and expanding rapidly into the new money hubs of Russia or the United Arab Emirates are suddenly “out.”  What’s now “in” for marketing luxury in this difficult era is pampering the wealthiest and most loyal customers…

In a recession in which even upscale consumers may find themselves strapped for disposable cash, it is a bad strategy to chase customers too far down the economic ladder. “We don’t want to see huge price cuts that will create a lower-priced brand…you don’t want to tarnish your brand…you still have your brand reputation to uphold”…

Many experts believe that the economic pain of the deepening recession could fall disproportionally on these marketers of high-end perfumes, trendy clothing or sleek fashion accessories…Conspicuous consumption seems practically un-American in these troubled times…As a result of the hard times, consumers are likely to see some moves aimed at selling high-end products at a slightly lower cost.

The key is not to make any move that will diminish the value of a brand with a well-established name for luxury…For luxury goods, the business plan places trust in the artistic vision of a designer — and hopes that will lure customers.

Because of the luxurious image they must portray, these marketers said they also need to guard their brands in ways that mass-market companies do not…That does not mean, however, that luxury firms do not want their products to reach a fairly broad audience… But to boost the bottom line, fashion firms are likely to focus now on pampering their best and most loyal consumers, using computer technology to increasingly customize upscale products that will be designed or tailored especially to their needs.

The success of individualized luxury goods — such as designer clothes or eyewear — is a development that could keep a customer repeatedly coming back for more, according to the panelists…Among the designer trends in customization are monogrammed handbags, personalized options for a color or a fabric in accessories, or a wider array of fragrances that are “personalized”…

Ironically, while the panelists were not particularly enthusiastic about the short-term prospects for emerging overseas markets, their companies continue to position themselves for when the time is right…

Still, regardless of where the global economy winds up, luxury marketers say their principle mission will remain the same: Selling a more glamorous way of life to aspiring consumers. “You’re buying into that dream…And you’re buying into that grand theme, which is our job.” 

Edit by SAC

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Full article:
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2091

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