Archive for February 19th, 2009

What about the guy that got laid off?

February 19, 2009

No surprise that I’m not a big fan of Obama’s plan to bailout the mortgage deadbeats.

For starters, consider the following (none of which I’ve heard the pundits pounce on):

First, even I am sympathetic to the working stiff who anted in a down payment and has a history of making his payments on time, but has been jolted by the economy with declining home prices and, worst of all, a lost job.  I say, cut that guy mucho slack.  I don’t mind my tax dollars helping him out.

But, Plan Obama says multiply earnings times 31% to calc mortgage payment.  The nuns taught me that anything times nothing is nothing — so this guy — the most deserving, in my opinion —  is out in the street,  That’s not fair, is it?

Second, Obama says 10 million mortgages will be impacted at a cost of $75 billion.  That’s $7,500 per loan — of which $5,000 is the sum of the annual incentives (principal reduction) if the borrower makes his payments, and at least $1,500 are processing costs to the lender.  That leaves a whopping $1,000 that goes to modify loans that average over $200,000.  Doesn’t add up to me.

Third, politically incorrect, but shouldn’t this plan be limited to social security card carrying US citizens.

Fourth, keep in mind that 1/3 of all home owners don’t have a mortgage — they own their homes free and clear of any liens or mortgages … and over 90% of all mortgage holders are making their payments — just as they always have.

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For the record: here’s what economists were saying pre-stimulus …

February 19, 2009

Since Team Obama has started the chatter that “saving or creating jobs” will be measured against an 11% unemployment rate, I checked to see what economists were saying right before the stimulus was passed.  Consensus was 8.8% — to me that’s the bar to apply to Obama’s program.  Let’s see what happens.

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http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash08.html?project=EFORECAST07

Article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123445757254678091.html

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Detroit 3 cut number of brands … oh, no so fast

February 19, 2009

Excerpted from  brandchannel.com, “Detriot’s Big Three: Car Brands a Pile-up ” by Dale Buss, February 9, 2009

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The Big 3 are looking to cut costs by eliminating brands, but it’s not quite that simple.  The incremental cost to maintain brands built on common manufacturing platforms may be minimal compared to the cost savings due to higher capacity utilization. Plus there are many other costs incurred by discontinuing brands.

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Despite its looming demise, the American auto industry dismissed demands for brand reduction in December 2008. Forced by the federal government into a mea culpa that was supposed to include plans for drastic cost-cutting and other reformative measures, GM was expected to agree to eliminate a handful of its brands.

But GM went no further than admitting it should streamline Pontiac, keep Hummer for sale and maybe ditch Saab. Saturn, GM said, faced an indeterminate future—but only in terms of its ownership, not existentially.

Consider Mercury, too: Everyone has talked down Ford’s secondary brand for decades as unnecessary. But given many chances to dump Mercury, Ford has kept it around.

And as Chrysler is widely considered to be in the most danger of imminent dissolution, only two aspects of the company are given a decent chance of surviving: its minivans and its brands. If Chrysler does go out of business, Jeep and its iconic identification with SUVs probably would survive.

Even the much-damaged Chrysler brand is given some respect in discussions about what a Fiat-Chrysler combination might do with Fiat-designed or -built small cars that could be imported to the United States under their new partnership. Almost invariably, industry experts predict such vehicles would be badged “Chrysler” rather than “Fiat”—a brand that has been missing from the American market for 27 years.

Brands in the auto business are everything…and it’s a much more complex decision to either minimize or kill a brand than most people realize.”

For a variety of reasons – including historic loyalties, production strategies, internal politics and dealer investments – car brands possess a ton of inertia and are very difficult to kill even when there’s a clear business-school case to be made against them.

But profound challenges to Detroit’s automotive brands keep arising. They snuffed out Plymouth and Oldsmobile years ago. And today’s marketplace presents a strong apparent rationale for accelerated brand consolidation in the industry, including share shifts, segment disruption, the demands of developing new models more quickly and the huge costs of supporting a brand with marketing.

Add to that the extremely intensified imperative to cut costs that now is being shouldered by each of the Big Three.

“The rationale for decision-making now isn’t whether brands are strong or not—it’s that the business won’t support them,”

On the surface, it sure looks as though GM will have to say goodbye to some brands. In its business plan unveiled to Congress in December, GM said that it would slash US$ 600 million in marketing spending by 2012. It will reduce its vehicle nameplates to just 40 in 2012, down from 48 this year and 63 in 2004.

And GM told Congress that it will avidly support only half of its eight brands: Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick and GMC. Those four account for 83 percent of GM’s US vehicle sales and much more than 83 percent of its profits.

Yet in the fine print, congressmen found that GM wasn’t actually as dedicated to brand elimination as first thought. GM CEO Rick Wagoner said that Pontiac will continue as a specialty niche brand within the Buick-GMC division—essentially, what it is now. Saab may go on the sale block along with Hummer, but since most of the brand’s vehicles are sold in Europe, GM’s evaluation of Saab is being done there.

And Saturn, GM executives told Congress, will be the subject of exploration of “alternatives” to a simple termination or sale of the brand, in large part because the company has unique franchise arrangements with Saturn dealers.

Pontiac’s manufacturing and product development already are highly integrated with those of Buick and GMC, so the marginal cost of maintaining Pontiac as a separate brand mainly lies in marketing. And the ongoing integration of Saturn’s lineup with that of Opel, the company’s leading brand in Europe, will help GM continue to build a case for preserving Saturn.

GM also is still smarting from the lessons of Oldsmobile, which it deep-sixed in 2004. First: Beware dealers. GM ended up spending an estimated US$ 2 billion in write-offs and settlements with Olds retailers.

Second, in nixing Oldsmobile, GM voluntarily sacrificed volume in the tens of thousands of units, partly in the expectation that its other brands would recover much of that. The problem was that “they gave up all that volume and it never went anywhere else inside the GM organization,”

The main reason that Mercury has survived has boiled down to the few extra points of market share that it gives Ford and how it helps the company’s overall manufacturing utilization.

At the same time, having to churn out Mercury-badged products as well as Fords “gives higher capacity utilization to Ford’s plants, maybe 95 percent with Mercury—which would be only 80 percent without it,” said David Cole, chairman of the Center for Automotive Research.

Edit by NRV

Full article: http://www.brandchannel.com/start1.asp?fa_id=463

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Marion Barry agrees with Harry Reid: "Taxes are voluntary"

February 19, 2009

Last week, we posted the link to an interview in which Sen. Harry Reid said repeatedly that paying income taxes in the U.S. is strictly voluntary.  Apparently, former DC mayor Marion Barry is on the same page as Reid.

If you missed the Reid interview, here’s the link again.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7mRSI8yWwg

Trust me, this is worth watching.

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Excerpted from AP, “Prosecutors ask judge to send Barry to jail”, Feb 10, 2009

Former Washington mayor Marion Barry was given three years of probation in 2006 after pleading guilty to misdemeanor charges for failing to file his tax returns from 1999 to 2004. As part of a plea bargain, he agreed to file future federal and local tax returns annually.

Now, prosecutors have asked a federal judge Monday to send  to jail for failing to file his tax returns for the eighth time in nine years.

If the judge decides not to send Barry to jail, prosecutors asked for a hearing so that Barry can explain his conduct and prosecutors can seek to extend his probation by two years.

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Barry served four terms as mayor. In 1990, during his third term, he was videotaped in a hotel room smoking crack cocaine in an FBI sting. He served a six-month prison sentence and in 1994 was re-elected to the mayor’s office for another four-year term.

Full article:
http://wtop.com/?nid=596&sid=1597042 

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Marion Barry agrees with Harry Reid: “Taxes are voluntary”

February 19, 2009

Last week, we posted the link to an interview in which Sen. Harry Reid said repeatedly that paying income taxes in the U.S. is strictly voluntary.  Apparently, former DC mayor Marion Barry is on the same page as Reid.

If you missed the Reid interview, here’s the link again.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7mRSI8yWwg

Trust me, this is worth watching.

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Excerpted from AP, “Prosecutors ask judge to send Barry to jail”, Feb 10, 2009

Former Washington mayor Marion Barry was given three years of probation in 2006 after pleading guilty to misdemeanor charges for failing to file his tax returns from 1999 to 2004. As part of a plea bargain, he agreed to file future federal and local tax returns annually.

Now, prosecutors have asked a federal judge Monday to send  to jail for failing to file his tax returns for the eighth time in nine years.

If the judge decides not to send Barry to jail, prosecutors asked for a hearing so that Barry can explain his conduct and prosecutors can seek to extend his probation by two years.

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Barry served four terms as mayor. In 1990, during his third term, he was videotaped in a hotel room smoking crack cocaine in an FBI sting. He served a six-month prison sentence and in 1994 was re-elected to the mayor’s office for another four-year term.

Full article:
http://wtop.com/?nid=596&sid=1597042 

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Let’s eat in … what’s in the freezer?

February 19, 2009

Excerpted from WSJ, “Consumers Cut Food Spending Sharply”  By J. Lahart, T. Martin, and J. Adamy, Feb 13, 2009

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The bad economy is hitting America right in the stomach. Consumers have cut back sharply on food spending, shunning restaurants, opting for generic products over brand names, trading in lattes for home-brewed coffee and shopping for bargains. That is hurting sales and profits at many food processors, grocery chains and restaurants.

In 2008’s fourth quarter, consumer spending on food fell at an inflation-adjusted 3.7% from the third quarter … That is the steepest decline in the 62 years the government has compiled the figure …

The big drop likely comes from two things, said Joseph Carson, an economist … First, consumers have been trading down to lower-priced items. Second, he thinks many households dug into their pantries for staples rather than going to the store, a trend that can’t continue indefinitely. “You can’t contract at this rate for long … It’s just shocking.”

Cindy Greco, a Chicago resident, said she’s shopping more at Costco and buying less expensive meat, such as chicken, shrimp and ground turkey …“I’m someone who used to never ever pay attention to the prices of groceries … But now it’s a different story.” She showed off a bottom round roast she had unearthed that was marked down to $7.21 from $18.26.

“In recent years, a lot of discretionary income has gone into buying fancier food, whether it’s Starbucks coffee or prepared dinner or restaurant meals” … Now, that trend seems to be waning.

Last week, Kraft Foods Inc. lowered its earnings forecast for the year, saying customers are cutting back purchases of snack foods and trading down to private labels. Groupe Danone SA said this week that U.S. consumers sharply trimmed their purchases of yogurt and other dairy products at the end of last year. Even makers of chocolates are worried about how well their products sold for Valentine’s Day …

Citi Investment Research warned of a “modern-day price war” based on Wal-Mart’s plan to freshen up its Great Value private-label foods and the analyst’s expectation that it will trim national-brand prices. That could force grocery stores to cut prices to compete. U.S. sales of private-label food rose 10% in 2008 from 2007, to $82.9 billion … At the same time, branded food products saw sales rise 2.8% to $416.6 billion …

When times get tough, restaurants are one of the first places where people economizeThe shift has a silver lining for some companies. While supermarkets passed along last year’s high ingredient costs to customers, McDonald’s Corp. and other fast-food chains absorbed some of the expense and kept many items priced at $1. Now, some consumers consider a fast-food meal a bargain. On Monday, McDonald’s said same-store sales rose 7.1% in January, including a 5.4% increase in the U.S.

Other consumers are opting for home cooking. In Bellevue, Neb., stock broker Kevin Vaughan and his wife cook chicken to make broth from scratch instead of buying it in cans, and use all of the resulting meat for multiple dishes … another bonus from reduced food purchases, he added: less trash to take out.

[food spending]

Edit by SAC

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Full Article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123448606475780133.html

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Free Downloads to Save the Music Industry … say, again

February 19, 2009

Excerpted from the New York Times, “Music Industry Imitates Digital Pirates to Turn a Profit”, by Eric Pfanner, January 18, 2009

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After years of futile efforts to stop digital pirates from copying its music, the music business has started to copy the pirates.

Online and mobile services offering listeners unlimited “free” access to millions of songs are set to proliferate in the coming months, according to music industry executives.

Unlike illegal file-sharing services, which the music industry says are responsible for billions of dollars in lost sales, these new offerings are perfectly legal. The services are not really free, but payment is included in the cost of, say, a new cellphone or a broadband Internet access contract, so the cost to the consumer is disguised. And, unlike pirate sites, these services provide revenue to the music companies.

Perhaps the most prominent service offering unlimited downloads has been Comes With Music, which was introduced in Britain last fall by Nokia, the world’s largest maker of cellphones. It lets users download as many songs as they want, from a catalog of more than five million tracks, when they buy certain Nokia phones.

Other services offering unlimited downloads are being introduced by Internet service providers, which many people in the music industry say hold the key to curbing piracy because of their direct relationship with Web users.

“At the end of the day, we are not going to stop piracy, so let’s embrace it,” said one industry insider.

Music companies have balked at such arrangements in the past. But they are showing a newfound flexibility in licensing their material as their existence becomes increasingly threatened.

Cellphone manufacturers, meanwhile, are eager to add music services as the battle of the smartphones heats up among companies like Nokia, Apple and BlackBerry.

Edit by DAF

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Full article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/19/business/worldbusiness/19digital.html?ref=technology&pagewanted=print

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