Archive for February 23rd, 2009

The slippery slope of setting prices based on ability to pay.

February 23, 2009

Imagine walking into a car dealer, seeing a shiny new sedan on the floor, asking the salesman “what’s its price?”, and having the salesman ask you how much money you earn.  You answer $80,000 and he says “half a year’s pay — $40,000.”

As you stand pondering, you overhear the salesman talking to another customer about an identical car. That customer says he only earns $50,000 per year.  So, the salesman quotes him $25,000 — half of his annual pay.

Sound absurd ?  It should because its commercially and legally problematic  The practice is called price discrimination based on ability to pay, and any merchant who tried it would probably be stoned by the public while being hauled off to court.

This technicality didn’t faze Team Obama in the development of their mortgage foreclosure plan.  In fact, price discrimination based on ability to pay is the plan’s central operating principle.

Consider the example that Team Obama circulated on the day the President unveiled the plan.  A person (call him Able) is holding a $220,000 mortgage at 6.5% with a 30 year payback term.  Able’s principal and interest payment is about $1,370 per month, or $16,365 per year.

Team Obama’s magic ratio of payment to income is 31%, so if Able earns more than $53,000 then he doesn’t qualify for a government induced loan modification. Let’s assume Able makes just over $53,000 and doesn’t qualify.

Able’s neighbor (call him Skipper) lives in an identical home with an identical $220,000 mortgage at the same terms – 6.5% for 30 years.  But, Skipper only makes $40,000 per year and is falling behind on his payments.

Enter Team Obama’s loan modifiers.  Since Skipper only makes $40,000, Team Obama says that he should only be expected to pay $12,400 — 31% of his income — towards his mortgage.  No problem. The lender – subsidized by the dwindling number of taxpayers – just lowers Skipper’s interest rate to about 4% (3.93% to be precise) and he’s officially modified.  And, if Skipper doesn’t start skipping payments again, he gets a check for $1,000 for each of the next 5 years.  Is this a great country, or what?

Let’s look at Skipper’s loan modification another way.  Assume that the lender holds the interest rate constant at 6.5% — the same rate that Able is paying.  How can the lender get Skipper’s payment down to $12,400 ?  Simple.  Write off about $53,000 of Skipper’s principal balance — getting it down to about $167,000 – which amortized over 30 years at 6.5% crams the annual payments down to the magic 31%.

In other words, Able and Skipper bought the identical houses at the same prices.  Because Skipper didn’t earn enough to make the payments, the lender, in effect, gave him a $53,000 price rebate to make it affordable.  We taxpayers then give him an additional $5,000 rebate if he makes his reduced mortgage payments.  So, Skipper gets the house for $162,000.

Able – since he is able to pay — gets no rebate. He still owns his house at the original price — $220,000.

Whether Skipper’s mortgage is repriced by adjusting the interest rate or by reducing the outstanding principal balance, the economics are the same.  It is price discrimination based on a buyer’s ability to pay – a morally bankrupt tactic that should be illegal if it’s not.

Otherwise, why not sell cars that way?  Or for that matter, why not force all merchants to price all their goods proportionate to customers’ incomes?  Why should I have to pay the same price for a can of Coke as Warren Buffet does?  That’s not fair, is it?

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Foreclosures will NOT hurt your neighborhood’s property values … (unless you live in CA, FL, AZ, NV, MI)

February 23, 2009

Ken’s Take: This is a very insightful, must read analysis … one of many that Team Obama seems to have missed.

Big idea: Federal subsidies to bailout delinquent homeowners will not often involve helping “neighbors” but rather those who live thousands of miles away, mainly in just five states: California, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan. 

In truth, Obama’s “Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan” compels taxpayers in most states to help those in just a few.  And,there is neither evidence nor logic that suggests a drop in property values in those 5 states impact property values in the other 45 states. 

Foreclosures aren’t a national problem — they’re an isolated regional problem and, of course, a personal problem for overstretched borrowers.

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Excerpted from NY Post, “The Foreclosure Five”, Reynolds, Feb 21, 2009

When President Obama discusses his $275 billion mortgage bailout, he talks as if it was a national problem, caused by a national decline in home prices. “We must stem the spread of foreclosures and falling home values for all Americans,” he says.

But there is no national market for homes and no national price for homes. Instead, most of the United States will pay for the folly of few.

The beneficiaries of taxpayer charity will be highly concentrated in just five states – California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida and Michigan. That is not because the subsidized homeowners are poor (Californians with $700,000 mortgages are not poor), but because they took on too much debt, often by refinancing in risky ways to “cash out” thousands more than the original loan. Nearly all subprime loans were for refinancing, not buying a home.

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Foreclosure Rates

One out of 76 homes in Nevada went into foreclosure in January, for example, compared with one out of 173 in California, with Arizona and Florida close behind.

But,nationwide, foreclosures fell 10% in January, to one out of every 466 homes … in the 25th ranked “median” state,  only one out of 949 homes was in foreclosure – just one-tenth of 1% … in New York, by contrast, only 1 out of 2,271 homes went into foreclosure … in Vermont, foreclosures amounted to just one out of 51,906 homes

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Home Prices

As of the third quarter of 2008,  home prices were still higher than a year before in 18 states, and down less than 2% in a dozen others. Double-digit declines in home prices were confined to just four states – surprise, every one of the Foreclosure Five except Michigan.

Even though California home prices fell 20.8% over the year ending in the fall of 2008, however, they were still 50% higher than they were just five years ago.

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Underwater Mortgages

Obama is particularly interested in mortgages that are underwater – that is, larger than the value of the home.

But again, this varies enormously by state. The state with the tenth highest percentage of underwater mortgages, Texas, has the same 16.5% underwater as the so-called national average. The other 40 states have a below-average percentage of homes that are worth less than their mortgages, which means the mean average is not at all typical of most states.

Only 4.4% of New York mortgages are underwater, not even a tenth as many as in Nevada.

Full article:
http://www.nypost.com/seven/02212009/postopinion/opedcolumnists/the_foreclosure_five_156287.htm?&page=0 

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Coca-Cola: Repackaging and Repricing to Increase Value

February 23, 2009

Excerpted from Dow Jones Newswire, “Coke To Push New 99-Cent, 16-Ounce Bottle” by Anjali Cordeiro, January 21, 2009

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Coca-Cola Co. (KO) will widen distribution of a new 16- ounce bottle priced at 99 cents in conjunction with the launch of a new marketing campaign called “Open Happiness.”

Coke executives said the new bottle size was launched about three months ago in the Southeast U.S. and is now being rolled out nationwide.

Sales of carbonated soft drinks have weakened in the U.S. as the economy has slowed, pushing beverage makers to test new package sizes and pricing.

The price of 99 cents also highlights the pressure on consumer companies to offer consumers better value for their money.

The company’s new ad campaign for its namesake brand launches this week and will have TV spots on “American Idol” and the upcoming Super Bowl. The campaign will include a focus on packaging and pricing.

Edit by DAF

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Full article:
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200901211404DOWJONESDJONLINE000813_FORTUNE5.htm

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Angry renters say “Don’t bail out Bob …”

February 23, 2009

Excerpted from Angryrenter.com

All we hear these days is whining from reckless home borrowers and their banks.

But did you know that renters are 32 percent of American households? And that homes in foreclosure are less than 2 percent?

So why is Congress rushing to bailout high-flying borrowers and their lenders with our tax dollars?

Unfortunately, renters aren’t as good at politics as the small minority of homeowners (and their bankers) who are in trouble. We don’t have lobbyists in Washington, DC. We don’t get a tax deduction for our rent and we don’t get sweetheart government loans.

Quite simply, we are just Angry Renters. And now it is our time to be heard: no government bailouts!

To sign the Angry Renter’s petition, go to Angryrenter.com

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Short video, worth watching:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOaDrM3rMXs 

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Revenue Management: Dark Skies Ahead for Airlines

February 23, 2009

Excerpted from WSJ, “After Rough Year, Airlines Bet on More Fees, Lower Fuel Costs” By Susan Carey, January 30, 2009

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Four more U.S. airlines reported fourth-quarter losses, capping a tough year, but the industry is hoping that new fees, higher ticket prices and lower fuel bills will bring improved results in 2009.

Airlines have begun boosting revenue by raising their fees for incidental services and charging for perks that were once included in the price of a ticket … US Airways Group hopes to generate as much as $500 million of such ancillary revenue this year.

So far, the industry’s capacity reductions have enabled carriers to raise prices and report fairly healthy gains in unit revenue, or the amount taken in for each seat flown a mile.

But gyrating oil prices and the recession continue to cloud the industry’s outlook. Volatile crude prices gave airlines fits last year as oil’s descent in the second half led to losses on hedging contracts they had entered to guard against rising jet-fuel costs …

 

The industry faces headwinds, including the challenge of holding down unit costs as capacity is cut and previously profitable international routes turn weaker. The International Air Transport Association … said passenger demand fell 4.6% in December and international cargo traffic dropped more than 22%.  Continental said it is concerned about a deterioration in its premium international business, its business bookings and even some leisure markets.

While Continental, the fourth-largest U.S. airline by traffic, figures its annual fuel bill will drop $2 billion this year, it said it is anybody’s guess whether oil will climb to $150 a barrel or decline to $20 a barrel …

US Airways, the No. 6 U.S. carrier by traffic, reported a net loss of $541 million … with $234 million in losses reflecting adjustments to its fuel hedges. The company expects it will pay $1.7 billion less this year on fuel than in 2008. US Airways plans to reduce its mainline capacity by nearly 6% in the current quarter …

Edit by SAC

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Full Article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123315725894024393.html

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