Archive for March 13th, 2009

Tough week for Warren Buffett …

March 13, 2009

Citing concerns about Berkshire’s  equity and derivatives investments, Fitch stripped Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway of its ‘AAA’ credit rating …  cutting the insurance and investment company’s issuer default rating by one notch to ‘AA+’.

The downgrade is another setback to Buffett, coming a day after the billionaire lost his position as the world’s richest man to Bill Gates. 

According to Forbes’ annual list. Buffett’s net worth plunged to $37 billion from $62 billion last year, as shares of Berkshire Hathaway fell nearly 50% in 12 months.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29666975
http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/11/worlds-richest-people-billionaires-2009-billionaires_land.html

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FLASH ! … The HomaFiles scoops WSJ … by almost one month !

March 13, 2009

Today’s WSJ contains an editorial titled “Obama’s Poll Numbers Are Falling to Earth” by GOP pollster Scott Rasmussen and Dem pollster Doug Schoen.

In summary, they report: “It is simply wrong for commentators to continue to focus on President Barack Obama’s high levels of popularity …  a detailed look at recent survey data shows that … Mr. Obama’s approval rating is dropping and is below where George W. Bush was in an analogous period in 2001 and that . his net presidential approval rating — which is calculated by subtracting the number who strongly disapprove from the number who strongly approve — is just six, his lowest rating to date.”

For the full article, click to:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123690358175013837.html

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Ken’s Take:

It will be interesting to see how the press covers this column. My bets:

(1) Fox will loop it; CNN will have commentators debunk it; MSM will ignore it completely

(2) No media will push Rasmussen for the more controversial data nuggets: Obama’s PAI (presedential approval index) is near 100% among blacks, around 70% for Hispanics, and negative for whites; Obama’s PAI is negative among investors and taxpayers; and according to FD/Diageo, support for Obama’s programs is only strong among groups who “know little about them”

(3) Robert Gibbs — fronting for Team Obama — will say that the administration doesn’t pay attention to polls … ducking questions regarding Karl Rove’s revelation that “senior White House staff meet for two hours each Wednesday evening to digest their latest polling and focus-group research.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123682426946303905.html

Also, with two consecutive days of bad polls (yesterday, economists gave Obama and Geithner failing grades for their handling of the economy ), it will be interesting to see how Team Obama — known for its rhetorical offense — plays defense.

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Loyal readers of the HomaFiles got a heads-up on this trend almost a month ago. 

On Feb. 17, 2009 — using Rasmussen’s data — we posted  “Uh-oh … is Obama’s star starting to fade ? ”
https://kenhoma.wordpress.com/2009/02/17/uh-oh-is-obamas-star-starting-to-fade/

On March 2, 2009, we posted a follow-up “Uh-oh … Barack-O’s presidential approval index drops to single digit”
https://kenhoma.wordpress.com/2009/03/02/uh-oh-barack-os-presidential-approval-index-drops-to-single-digits/

This Monday — March 9, 2009 — we posted “So really, how strong is Obama’s approval rating ?”
https://kenhoma.wordpress.com/2009/03/09/so-how-strong-is-obamas-approval-rating/

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81% say Madoff should not keep any of the money ….

March 13, 2009

As part of the plea bargain being worked out, Bernard Madoff  is expected to plead guilty to 11 criminal counts, but he’s angling for his wife Ruth to keep at least $70 million to live on while he’s in jail.

In a Rasmussen survey, 81% of the respondents said that neither of the Madoffs should be permitted to keep any of the ill-gotten money.

Amazingly (to me at least) 5% of the respondents thought Madoff or his wife should be allowed to keep at least some of the money

14% were not sure … or hadn’t heard of Madoff

Ken’s Take:

(1) Man, that guy has got some stones.

(2) Think: those 19% get to vote in Presidential elections …

Full article:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/general_business/81_say_neither_madoff_nor_his_wife_should_keep_any_money

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Even credit card companies are tightening up …

March 13, 2009

Excerpted from WSJ, “Credit Cards Are the Next Credit Crunch”, Whitney, March 10, 2009

Currently, there is roughly $5 trillion in credit-card lines outstanding in the U.S., and a little more than $800 billion is currently drawn upon.

(That compares to total mortgage debt of over $10.5 trillion)

I believe that there will be at least a 57% contraction in credit-card lines. Of the $5 trillion, over $2 trillion of credit-card lines is likely to be cut in 2009, and $2.7 trillion by the end of 2010.

As we return to more realistic underwriting standards, certain borrowers will no longer appear worth the risk, and therefore lines will continue to be pulled from those borrowers.

Lenders have reduced credit lines based upon “zip codes,” or where home price depreciation has been most acute. Such a strategy carries the obvious hazard of putting good customers in more vulnerable liquidity positions simply because they live in a higher risk zip code.

Currently five lenders dominate two thirds of the market. Credit-card lenders are currently playing a game of “hot potato,” in which no one wants to be the last one holding an open credit-card line to an individual or business. While a mortgage loan is largely a “monogamous” relationship between borrower and lender, an individual has multiple relationships with credit-card providers. Thus, as lines are cut, risk exposure increases to the remaining lender with the biggest line outstanding.

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Over the past 20 years, Americans have also grown to use their credit card as a cash-flow management tool.

For example, 90% of credit-card users revolve a balance (i.e., don’t pay it off in full) at least once a year, and over 45% of credit-card users revolve every month.

A relatively small portion of U.S. consumers have actually maxed out their credit cards, and most currently have ample room to spare on their unused credit lines. For example, the industry credit line utilization rate (or percentage of total credit lines outstanding drawn upon) was just 17% at the end of 2008.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123664459331878113.html

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Remember when getting upgraded to a bigger rental car was, well, an upgrade?

March 13, 2009

Excerpted from Direct, “Thrifty Marketing for Thrifty Times: A Car rental case history” By Ken Magill, Dec 1, 2008

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When gas prices skyrocketed this summer, Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group — along with the rest of the car-rental industry — faced a tough marketing challenge: What to do when customers’ demand for economy cars soars and the fleet simply isn’t built to meet that demand.

“Consumer behavior has really changed a lot for us with high gas prices,” says Chris Payne of Dollar Thrifty … “There are road warriors who like to get the best deal they can. [Before gas prices went up] they would reserve a smaller car than they really needed knowing we’d probably sell out and they’d get a bigger car at no extra cost. Now people are saying, ‘Wait a minute — I reserved a smaller car and you want to give me that gas guzzler? Forget it, I don’t want it.’ Four-dollar gas definitely was a tipping point.”

As a result, the company found itself in a rough spot. “You just can’t change your fleet overnight … It’s the same issue the manufacturers have had, where for a while Detroit was pumping out all these SUVs and minivans and everybody thought bigger was better.” Moreover, he says, the cost of cars to rental companies has gone way up, so these firms have been forced to keep their vehicles longer, making fleet changes even more difficult.

“Think about running a business where the cost of your commodity has gone up by 50% twice in the last two years … All the companies have been holding on to cars for from 12 to 14 months. It used to be we’d hold on to them for about nine …”

To overcome the challenge, Dollar Thrifty began running regular e-mail promotions on larger and luxury vehicles … the company’s two brands — Thrifty Car Rental and Dollar Rent a Car — have 1.8 million and 1.3 million opted-in e-mail subscribers, respectively … The average opt-out rate for a Dollar Thrifty mailing is .12% — “which is amazingly low … we’re reaching a very targeted audience … ” Also, he says, the average mailing generates most of its activity within 72 hours and brings in over $1 million in revenue.

“Dollar Thrifty is a perfect example of a company that’s built a successful permission-based marketing program … By providing subscribers with content that’s directly relevant and valuable to them, Dollar Thrifty is able to increase revenue while keeping opt-outs incredibly low” … 

Dollar Thrifty also created a chart to be given to customers at rental counters. With it, customers can cross-reference the gas consumption of smaller vehicles against larger ones and figure out how much more they’d end up spending on an upgrade.

“What we’ve found is that consumers’ perceptions are way out of whack on the gas thing … families of five are showing up having rented an economy car because it was the best price they could find online … They’re forgoing comfort to save a few bucks, but they’re not saving as much as they think. In some cases, they’re literally spending a dollar or two more for the entire rental.”

Anecdotally at least, Payne says the program is working … As of this writing in October when gas prices had dropped, Dollar Thrifty customers remained cost conscious and the chart was still being used.

“It’s still helpful,” Payne says. “People are getting hit in a lot of areas and anything they can do to cut costs, they’ll do …”

Edit by SAC

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Full Article:
http://directmag.com/email/1201-thrifty-email-promotions/

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Avoiding the Chardonnay tax & other restaurant price gotchas …

March 13, 2009

Excerpted from WSJ, “10 Ways to Save Money Ordering Wine”, March 7, 2009

Here are 10 insider tactics for not overpaying for wine at restaurants:

1. Skip wine by the glass. Restaurateurs like to make enough on a single glass to pay for a whole bottle … many wines by the glass are poured from bottles that have been open for too long and mistreated after opening … wine bars that specialize in wines by the glass, and keep them well, are a major exception.)

2.  Make sure the wine is from a very recent vintage. Most wines are meant to drink young and fresh and many restaurants, especially informal restaurants, don’t keep their wines in perfect conditions. .

3. Bypass the second-cheapest wine on the list. Restaurateurs know that diners don’t want to appear cheap by ordering the least expensive wine on the list, so they’ll hose you for ordering the second-cheapest. The least expensive is actually a pretty good deal at many places.

4. Scope out the owner’s passion for value. If there are, say, a dozen wines from South Africa on the list and no more than a handful from anywhere else, chances are the owner knows and cares about South African wine — and therefore is more likely to know good values from there.

5. Avoid the Chardonnay tax. Chardonnay is America’s favorite wine. Just about everybody loves it and feels comfortable with it, which is why the Chardonnays on so many lists are grossly overpriced compared to other wines.

6. Never order Santa Margherita Pinot Grigio.  Because so many people like it, it is routinely one of the most outrageously priced wines on the list.  If you stay within your comfort zone, ordering only wines you already know, you will be punished for it, price-wise.  There is value in tasting something new.

7. Don’t ignore house wines, by the bottle or in carafes … more often than not, we have found these lusty and fun.

8. Look for half-price deals.  This trend is sweeping the nation. Look around and you are likely to find a deal like that in your neighborhood.

9. BYOB. Check around for restaurants that allow you to bring your own wine.   More restaurants than ever, eager for business, are relaxing their rules on BYOB and lowering corkage fees. Even some fancy places now are offering special BYOB nights.

10. Check online before you dine to see a  restaurant’s wine list . This will give you more time to study the list to find good values.

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No wine is going to seem like a good value to you when you know you could buy it at a local store for half the price or less.

And while personally we wouldn’t do it, we know there are people out there who enjoy bargaining and we’d guess that at least some restaurants would be willing to dicker on the price of more-expensive wines these days.

Full column:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123638925101858707.html?mod=djemtastings 

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