Archive for May 12th, 2009

WH says "no new jobs this year" … how un-stimulating !

May 12, 2009

Extracted from IBD, “What About Jobs?”, May 11, 2009

One of President Obama’s campaign pledges was to “create or save” more than three million jobs in his first two years in office — not all that ambitious considering the economy has created 1.5 million jobs annually since 1980.

K-Note: That claim morphed to “save or create 3.5 million jobs” via the $750 billion stimulus.

As of May 1, just $29 billion in stimulus spending, or about 3.7% of the total, had gone out. In a $14 trillion economy, that’s nothing.

The new White House economic forecast contains more than one stunning revelation. Tops on our list is that no net new jobs are expected this year, even as the economy recovers.

Now, Christina Romer, chairwoman of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, says don’t expect any new jobs this year — and that unemployment could reach 9.5%, up from the current 8.9%, even though she expects the economy to grow 3.5% in the fourth quarter.

Full article:
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=326933960257860

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If so many people want hybrid cars … how come ?

May 12, 2009

Ken’s Take: Both GM and Chrysler will be pushed by Team Obama to make the itsy-bitsy hybrids that “everybody wants.”

According to the WSJ: hybrids still  aren’t getting any traction in the market and, now, Toyota is beefing up the Prius with more size and more power.

Hmmmm.

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 Excerpted from WSJ: “Hybrids Battle for Green”, May 11, 2009

With sales of hybrid vehicles sinking, … Toyota,is rolling out a major U.S. ad push for its 2010 Prius, the third generation of the world’s top-selling hybrid vehicle.

Toyota’s new ad for its third-generation Prius shows a planet in harmony, with humanized clouds, fields and flowers bursting into song.

Some experts believe that price should be a big factor in the campaigns; hybrids typically cost thousands of dollars more than comparable gas-burning models. “They need to emphasize not only the social benefits of hybrids but also the economics … one of the big hang-ups with these cars is that they cost more.”

The allure of hybrids has waned with the decline in oil prices. Prius sales have fallen about 50% from Jan. 1 to April 30. F or all their earth-friendly cachet, hybrid cars represent only 2% of the light-vehicle market.

“It’s stunning … despite all the successes of the Prius and the emphasis on global warming, we can’t get significant hybrid penetration.”

“The big barrier for mass consumers is they worried that the Prius was underpowered and small …  the newly remodeled Prius is slightly bigger, with more horsepower.

The initial Prius advertising largely targeted the early adopter and the tree-hugging crowd, while the second generation of the vehicle was seen as the family’s second or commuter car. This campaign is about the “mainstreaming of the product.”

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124199018707904593.html

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Innovators’ success formula … don’t listen to users

May 12, 2009

Excerpted from HBS Working Knowledge, “Radical Design, Radical Results” by Julia Hanna, February 19, 2009

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When furniture designer Herman Miller presented a prototype of its sleek, mesh Aeron chair to a consumer focus group, many asked if they could see a finished, upholstered version.

Innovative product design can be a risky proposition. Yet as consumer purchases become increasingly driven by emotion, the competitive advantage gained by how a product “speaks” to a customer is clear. Just think about how Apple began its resurrection in 1998 with the unthinkable design of computers made of translucent blue, orange, and pink plastic, the original iMac.

Despite the importance of industrial design, little theory exists on how companies might go about creating a successful design strategy.

“Researchers have been investigating technological innovation for decades, but we know almost nothing about how companies manage design innovation.” .

For a study, Profs. Verganti and Dell’Era focused on the Italian furniture industry… they also divided the corresponding sample of 100 manufacturers into innovators and imitators.

Verganti says that design innovation often involves a high degree of uncertainty in terms of market success. “It’s very hard to understand what people want,” he says. “If I make a car that can brake in 10 yards instead of 50, that’s a quantifiable advantage that is easy to understand. But if I decide to create a computer out of translucent, colored plastic, it’s much more subjective. People will love it, or they won’t.”

Focus groups and market research can help to define a product, of course, but Verganti has found that design-driven innovation is not user-centered. Instead, it comes from within the organization. “Rather than being pulled by user requirements,” he wrote recently, “design-driven innovation is pushed by a firm’s vision about possible new product meanings … that could diffuse in society.”

“Apple is a company that is pushed by a vision,” Verganti says. “Steve Jobs has said that the market doesn’t always know what it wants. Companies that do radical innovation do not listen to users; they eventually value market feedback, but first they propose things to the users.”

In the face of this market uncertainty, Verganti has found that companies adopt one of three different strategies:

  1. Launch and see. The company launches a variety of products, and then measures market reaction to each, relying on the selective capability of consumers to determine which products to focus on.
  2. See and launch. The company employs some sort of research process and then launches products based on its findings.
  3. Wait and see. The company allows others to experiment with various products, observes what is most successful, and reacts accordingly.

In Verganti’s study of the Italian furniture industry, one would expect those who wait and see to have the least amount of variety in their product line. After all, if the imitators decide to stand back and observe what is most successful, wouldn’t they choose to copy just a few, choice products? Conversely, it would seem that the innovative companies would probably have higher levels of variety in their products because of the experiments they conduct.

Instead, the results showed just the opposite.

While the cost of experimentation in the furniture industry is relatively low, Verganti and his colleague found that the innovator companies actually used a see and launch strategy, conducting research in order to understand what sort of product language might be most successful. (This research is less of the focus-group variety and more of a broad-based assessment of cultural trends and scenario building.)

“Innovators avoid proposing a wide range of product signs and languages as a way to protect brand identity,” says Verganti. “They tend to adopt strategies that allow customers to easily reconnect specific product signs to their brands.”

In contrast, imitators show a greater variety in their product portfolio. They observe what innovators do and how the market reacts. But the feedback they receive is initially so ambiguous, with several languages coexisting, that they eventually imitate everything.

“The confusion that this creates in the market is called semiotic pollution,” Verganti says. “Imitators can be successful if they wait four or five years to determine what they should produce. But in the beginning it’s not clear which product is the winner. So when it comes to product languages, imitation is a very expensive strategy.”

Do these findings have implications beyond the design-heavy world of the Italian furniture industry? Regardless of the product in question, Verganti believes that companies need to consider the importance of design.

“In every industry, sooner or later, there is a radical change in the language of its products,” he says. “So the point for companies is, do they want to lead the change, or do they want to suffer the change?”

Edit by NRV

Full article:http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/5850.html

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