Archive for July 2nd, 2009

According to Gallup, Obama’s approval ratings are …

July 2, 2009

I usually cite the Rasmussen poll numbers.  For the record, they now show Obama running a negative PAI (Presidential Approval Index).  That is, more people strongly disapprove of the job he’s doung as president than strongly approve.  In prior posts, I’ve argued why that’s a better indicator than the groos approval numbers usually reported in mainstream media, and I’ve highlighted the demographics (e.g. rock solid among blacks; double digit negative among whites).

Gallup is longer established than Rasmussen, more brand-recognized and its methodology is arguably more favorable to Obama since it samples more than “likely voters’. 

Well, there even seem to be some “issues’ cropping up in the Gallip numbers.

Gallup has made available Obama’s approval ratings over time, by demographic groups.  While his support is rockhard among some groups (Liberals, blacks, low income, Northeasterners), it is slipping among some demographic groups with approval majorities in those groups threatened.  More specifically,

Comparing the periods Jam.19 to 25 (the Inauguration) to the latest reporting period June 22 to 28:

Pres. Obama’s overall job approval rating is still high (60%), but that’s down 7 points

Disapproval has increased by 20 points, from 13% to 33%

Approval among folks earning $90,000 or more is down 14 points to 52%;

Among whites approval is down 11 points to 52%; 

in the South approval is down 10 points to 54%;

Among college grads w/o post-grad degrees approval is down 14 points to 55%;

Among marrieds approval is down 9 points to 52%;

Among weekly churchgoers approval is down 9 points to 49%.

Is the bloom coming off the rose ?

Source data:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/121199/Obama-Weekly-Job-Approval-Demographic-Groups.aspx

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Posted in Obama - Promises Made & Kept | 1 Comment »

If you can’t trust Walmart, who can you trust?

July 2, 2009

Ken’s Take: Yesterday,  Walmart jumped on the Obamawagon and threw its support behind employer mandated healthcare insurance – the provision that layers additional taxes on any company that doesn’t offer its employees health insurance.

For sure, Walmart isn’t being altruistic.  This is a straightforward strategic-political gambit. 

Walmart already provides health insurance to the majority of its employees – essentially, all full-timers.  They might have to extend coverage to part-timers – or, they might be hoping that part-timers are outboarded from legislation — or, they just hire fewer part-timers (since their advantage over full-timers gets minimized)..

More important, few smaller retailers provide health benefits today.  All of these guys – Walmart’s competitors – will get slammed with higher taxes. In other words, their costs go up, theor margins go down, and Walmart gets a huge competitive advantage.  The small guys won’t be able to compete.

Also, there may be a quid pro quo for Walmart politically. 

Specifically,  if union “card check” gets passed, Walmart will have to be priority one for unionization.  That would be a way bigger problem than employer mandated healthcare insurance. 

My bet: Team Obama prizes the healthcare plan more than card check and cut a deal with Walmart to back off card check. 

Problem for Walmart: administration has a tendency to change rules and break promises.  Could backfire on Walmart.

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Excerpted from WSJ, “ Everyday Low Politics” – Wal-Mart buys protection by selling out its competitors”. July 2, 2009

The employer-mandate endorsement falls into the self-interest department. A boost in the minimum wage helps Wal-Mart because most of its workers already earn well over the wage floor, and it hurts smaller, less-profitable competitors that can’t afford to pay more. On health care, an employer mandate will also reduce the margins of their rivals. This is especially true for businesses of a slightly smaller size that cannot insure on the same scale or currently don’t reach the 55% of the 1.4 million Wal-Mart employees who are insured through the company. (Another 40% or so are covered by spouses or the likes of Medicaid.)

The Wal-Mart-Stern-Podesta troika made sure to specify that “shared responsibility” must be “fair and broad in its coverage,” with an emphasis on the latter. The Mom & Pop stores that liberals accuse Wal-Mart of running out of town may get hit hardest. Democrats say they’ll exempt certain small businesses, size details to be determined. But if the mandate is limited to large employers, it won’t reduce the number of uninsured. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, 99% of firms with more than 200 workers provide health benefits, only 62% of smaller firms.

Businesses are also largely indifferent whether compensation comes in the form of wages or benefits, so an employer mandate — an indirect tax on employment — may cause wages to rise more slowly. Or it may simply mean fewer jobs.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124649408574683287.html

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Posted in Health Care / Medical Insurance, Walmart | 1 Comment »

If you can’t trust Walmart, who can you trust?

July 2, 2009

Ken’s Take: Yesterday,  Walmart jumped on the Obamawagon and threw its support behind employer mandated healthcare insurance – the provision that layers additional taxes on any company that doesn’t offer its employees health insurance.

For sure, Walmart isn’t being altruistic.  This is a straightforward strategic-political gambit. 

Walmart already provides health insurance to the majority of its employees – essentially, all full-timers.  They might have to extend coverage to part-timers – or, they might be hoping that part-timers are outboarded from legislation — or, they just hire fewer part-timers (since their advantage over full-timers gets minimized)..

More important, few smaller retailers provide health benefits today.  All of these guys – Walmart’s competitors – will get slammed with higher taxes. In other words, their costs go up, theor margins go down, and Walmart gets a huge competitive advantage.  The small guys won’t be able to compete.

Also, there may be a quid pro quo for Walmart politically. 

Specifically,  if union “card check” gets passed, Walmart will have to be priority one for unionization.  That would be a way bigger problem than employer mandated healthcare insurance. 

My bet: Team Obama prizes the healthcare plan more than card check and cut a deal with Walmart to back off card check. 

Problem for Walmart: administration has a tendency to change rules and break promises.  Could backfire on Walmart.

* * * * *

Excerpted from WSJ, “ Everyday Low Politics” – Wal-Mart buys protection by selling out its competitors”. July 2, 2009

The employer-mandate endorsement falls into the self-interest department. A boost in the minimum wage helps Wal-Mart because most of its workers already earn well over the wage floor, and it hurts smaller, less-profitable competitors that can’t afford to pay more. On health care, an employer mandate will also reduce the margins of their rivals. This is especially true for businesses of a slightly smaller size that cannot insure on the same scale or currently don’t reach the 55% of the 1.4 million Wal-Mart employees who are insured through the company. (Another 40% or so are covered by spouses or the likes of Medicaid.)

The Wal-Mart-Stern-Podesta troika made sure to specify that “shared responsibility” must be “fair and broad in its coverage,” with an emphasis on the latter. The Mom & Pop stores that liberals accuse Wal-Mart of running out of town may get hit hardest. Democrats say they’ll exempt certain small businesses, size details to be determined. But if the mandate is limited to large employers, it won’t reduce the number of uninsured. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, 99% of firms with more than 200 workers provide health benefits, only 62% of smaller firms.

Businesses are also largely indifferent whether compensation comes in the form of wages or benefits, so an employer mandate — an indirect tax on employment — may cause wages to rise more slowly. Or it may simply mean fewer jobs.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124649408574683287.html

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Posted in Health Care / Medical Insurance, Walmart | 1 Comment »