Digging deeper on Obama’s sliding performance approval ratings …

Top-line Numbers

The most recent Rasmussen Poll reports that 30% of likely voters Strongly Approve of Obama’s performance as president, and 37% Strongly Disapprove.   That puts his Presidential Approval Index — the difference between the percentage of likely voters who Strongly Approve and the percentage who Strongly Disapprove — at minus 7.  The PAI has been negative for all of July, and it has been consistently around minus 7 for the past week or so.

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Top-line Analysis

The generally reported story line: Obama is personally popular, but his policies are causing concern among rock hard GOP opponents and some independents “at the margin”.

But, not to worry – ratings slips are to be expected when a President pushes an aggressive agenda and the Presidential honeymoon period winds down.

But, I’ve been noticing that acquaintances who were strong Obama supporters seem less willing to pitch his case and defend his actions to date.  While “buyer’s remorse” overstates the case, I am seeing some doubts and head-scratching.

So, I did some digging.

I previously posted some FD-Hotline polling results that indicated Obama is slipping among males, independents, and rural voters.  Interesting, but not earth-shaking.

The “internals” from Rasmussen polling – are way more revealing.  They’re under-reported – even by Rasmussen – probably because they tarnish the Obama mystique and reek of political incorrectness.

For example:

  • Obama’s high ratings with females and young people has eroded – his PAI with females and 18-29 year olds are now both dead even – as many strongly disapprove as strongly approve.
  • While his overall approval ratings among blacks is still sky high at 93%, his strong approval has dropped 10 points from 70% to 60%
  • His strong disapproval is over 40% among males, whites, independents, 30-39 year olds, and middle class folks earning between $40,000 and $100,000.

Keep reading for the drill down …

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First Level Drill Down

Comparing Rasmussen poll results from the week of July 6-12 to the week of  June 1-7

For the total sample of likely voters: Obama’s PAI (the difference between strong approvers and strong disapprovers)  dropped by 10 points, from plus 3 to minus 7

Highlights from the “internals”

For males: Strong Disapproval increased by 7 points,  from 35% to 42%
For females: Obama’s PAI dropped by 9 points, from plus 9 to even zero

For whites: Strong Disapproval increased by 5 points,  from 36% to 41%
For blacks: Strong Approval dropped 10 points,  from 70% to 60%
For “Other”: Strong Disapproval increased 16 points,  from 27% to 43%

For Democrats: Strong Approval dropped 12 points,  from 62% to 50%
For Republicans: Strong Disapproval increased 7 points,  from 54% to 61%
For “Other”: Strong Disapproval increased 8 points,  from 35% to 43%

For 18-29 olds: Strong Approval dropped 12 points,  from 39% to 27% and Obama’s PAI  dropped by 17 points, from plus 17 to even zero
For 30-39 olds:Strong Disapproval increased by 11 points,  from 31% to 42%

For those earning between $20,000 and $40,000: Obama’s PAI dropped by 12 points, from plus 5 to minus 7
For those earning between $40,000 and $60,000: Strong Disapproval increased by 12 points,  from 35% to 47%
For those earning between $75,000 and $100,000: Strong Disapproval increased by 9 points,  from 35% to 44%

For more still more detail from the internals, keep reading.

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Rasmussen June to July Internals

Comparing poll results from the week of July 6-12 to the week of  June 1-7

For the total sample of likely voters:

  • Strong Approval dropped 5 points,  from 34% to 29%
  • Strong Disapproval increased by 5 points,  from 31% to 36%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 10 points, from plus 3 to minus 7

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Gender

For males:

  • Strong Approval dropped 5 points,  from 32% to 27%
  • Strong Disapproval increased by 7 points,  from 35% to 42%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 12 points, from minus 3 to minus 15

For females:

  • Strong Approval dropped 5 points,  from 36% to 31%
  • Strong Disapproval increased by 5 points,  from 27% to 31%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 9 points, from plus 9 to even zero

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Race

For whites:

  • Strong Approval dropped 5 points,  from 29% to 24%
  • Strong Disapproval increased by 5 points,  from 36% to 41%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 10 points, from minus 7 to minus 17

For blacks:

  • Total Approval stayed even at 93%
  • Strong Approval dropped 10 points,  from 70% to 60%
  • Strong Disapproval stayed even at 2 to 3%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 9 points, from plus 67 to plus 58

For “Other”:

  • Total Approval dropped 8 points,  from 56% to 48%
  • Strong Approval dropped 2 points,  from 32% to 30%
  • Strong Disapproval increased 16 points,  from 27% to 43%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 18 points, from plus 5 to minus 13

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Party

For Democrats:

  • Total Approval dropped 6 points,  from 85% to 79%
  • Strong Approval dropped 12 points,  from 62% to 50%
  • Strong Disapproval increased by 4 points,  from 9% to 13%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 16 points, from plus 53 to plus 37

For Republicans:

  • Total Approval  and Strong Approval stayed about even even at 23% and 9-10%
  • Strong Disapproval increased 7 points,  from 54% to 61%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 6 points, from minus 45 to minus 51

For “Other”:

  • Total Approval dropped 7 points,  from 49% to 42%
  • Strong Approval dropped 5 points,  from 25% to 20%
  • Strong Disapproval increased 8 points,  from 35% to 43%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 13 points, from minus 10 to minus 23

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Age

For 18-29:

  • Strong Approval dropped 12 points,  from 39% to 27%
  • Strong Disapproval increased by 5 points,  from 22% to 27%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 17 points, from plus 17 to even zero

For 30-39:

  • Strong Approval dropped 5 points,  from 30% to 25%
  • Strong Disapproval increased by 11 points,  from 31% to 42%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 16 points, from minus 1 to minus17

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Income

For those earning less than $20,000

  • Approval and disapproval have remained essentially even
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 4 points, but remains high at plus 17

For those earning between $20,000 and $40,000

  • Strong Approval dropped 9 points,  from 34% to 25%
  • Strong Disapproval increased by 3 points,  from 29% to 32%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 12 points, from plus 5 to minus 7

For those earning between $40,000 and $60,000

  • Strong Approval dropped 9 points,  from 32% to 23%
  • Strong Disapproval increased by 12 points,  from 35% to 47%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 21 points, from minus 3 to minus 24

For those earning between $75,000 and $100,000

  • Strong Approval remained about even at 31%
  • Strong Disapproval increased by 9 points,  from 35% to 44%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 10 points, from minus 4 to minus 13

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One Response to “Digging deeper on Obama’s sliding performance approval ratings …”

  1. Laj Says:

    The problem Obama faces is that he managed to convince people, for whatever reason, that he was a moderate when he was running for President. Now, it is becoming apparent to all those who thought he was moderate that he is anything but. I guess the real question is how well the Democrats will perform in the 2010 elections and how Obama responds to that.

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