The Homa Files

Ken’s Take: Since Rasmussen was first to report Obama’s approval below 50%, his methodology is being questioned by mainstream media.  Below is a pretty clear explanation. 

Bottom line: Rasmussen samples likely voters instead of all adults and distinguishes between ‘strong’ and ‘somewhat’ approval (and disapproval).

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From RCP,Obama Upside Down, July 24th, 2009

Rasmussen officially becomes the first poll to show the President with an upside-down approval rating.  The pollster has him at 49% approve, 51% disapprove today. Rasmussen’s polls are typically spot-on in the end, but he’s been a consistent outlier on the approval rating issue.

Part of this is that Rasmussen samples likely voters, while most pollsters are sampling adults or registered voters right now.  Likely voters typically skew Republican by a few points.  On the one hand, it is difficult to screen for likely voters this early on, but on the other hand, this could be something of a preview of whether things will go when other pollsters begin imposing likely voter screens.

The other thing is that Rasmussen gives for options:  Strongly approve, strongly disapprove, somewhat approve, and somewhat disapprove.  It may well be the case that, given a simple “approve/disapprove” rubric, many people who somewhat disapprove of the job Obama is doing are unwilling to give a complete “disapprove” answer.  By adding the “somewhat” nuance, Rasmussen may be nudging voters into the “disapprove” camp.

One final thought: Rasmussen typically has fewer undecideds than other pollsters.  It may be that people who somewhat approve or somewhat disapprove of the President are more likely to describe themselves as “undecided.”  Pushed away from the “undecided” option, these voters may then choose the “somewhat disapprove” or “somewhat approve” option; it may be that, for now, the undecideds are leaning away from Obama.  This would make sense, given the general sense of approval that has surrounded Obama’s first six months, there may be a large chunk of the populace that simply isn’t willing to voice disapproval of him right now.

At any rate, an unwelcome milestone for the President.

Source article:
http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2009/07/24/obama-upside-down/

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This entry was posted on July 27, 2009 at 7:45 am and is filed under Obama Administration, Polls & Surveys. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.