Archive for August 6th, 2009

Instead of old people, how about rationing care to fat people ?

August 6, 2009

OK, I’ve got a dog in this fight. 

ObamaCare goes after old folks. 

Why not go after the horizontally challenged?

Hmmmm …

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According to the Wall Street Journal:

The prevalence of obesity rose 37% between 1998 and 2006.

Obese people spent 42% more than people of normal weight on medical costs in 2006.

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According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the percentage of male citizens who are clinically rated as obese,

Japan 2.8%
France 9.8 %
Germany 14.4%
Canada 17.0%
U.K. 22.7%
U.S. 31.1%

Percentages are similar for females.

Source post:
http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/

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According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention:

Overall, about 26 percent of U.S. adults are obese, including …

39% of black women
36% of black Americans
29% of Hispanics 
24% of whites

Source article:
http://www.newser.com/article/d99frjv01/state-by-state-obesity-statistics-show-blacks-have-the-largest-waistlines.html

For the full study (worth browsing):
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db01.pdf

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Draw your own conclusion

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Posted in Health & Nutrition, Health Care / Medical Insurance | 5 Comments »

What’s driving the stock market higher? …. Here’s an analysis you won’t see on CNBC (continued)

August 6, 2009

A loyal reader replied to my original post “ You’re too focused on Obama’s disapproval ratings”, the market is reacting in a “normal” way to a Democratic president. He referenced a Forbes article by investment guru Ken Fisher.

The Obama Effect. Ken Fisher, 06.03.09
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/0622/wall-street-stocks-obama-portfolio-strategy.html

“Wall Street marks down stocks before a Democrat takes office–before, in fact, he is even elected. After the inauguration there’s a good chance for a rebound.

With Democratic politicians the big fear is about how antibusiness and anticapitalist they will be.

Obama says lots of stupid, scary things. That fear hit markets early in the election cycle (and early after inauguration).

But once  in office the overwhelming motivation of a left-of-center President slowly morphs toward getting reelected.

Achieving that means pandering more to the independent voters and liberal Republicans, less to the Democratic power base.

Obama’s concern now is the recession and the job creators that can take us out of it. That means slowly backing off soak-the-rich, anticorporate talk over time.

The reverse happens with Republicans. They come in riding high expectations for pro-business, pro-growth policies–and inevitably disappoint investors as they drift away from their power base. Optimism fades, depressing stocks.”

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Ken’s Take: Rather than contradicting my original point (market buoyed as O’s disapproval increases), I think Fisher’s observation supports it. 

Though O is in battle mode now to push through Cap & Tax and nationalized healthcare, the market is assuming that the increasing opposition (as indicated in the disapproval numbers) will make him come to his senses and move to the middle, i.e. start to act more like a “normal” Democratic president. 

My prediction stands: if O fends off the opposition now, stays way left, and gets C&T and ObamaCare … the market will tank.  We’ll see.

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Thanks to Mike for the feedback.

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Posted in Obama Administration, Stock Market | Leave a Comment »

How do you know a successful new car when you see it ?

August 6, 2009

 Ken’s Take: This article is specific to the auto industry but the general principles are applicable to most businesses.

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Excerpted from: WSJ, The Auto Industry’s Comeback, July 29, 2009

The future of any car company is built on the relative success of its new cars.

Between now and 2014 there will be approximately 250 launches of either all-new or significantly redesigned new cars in the U.S.

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What constitutes a successful launch?

First,  focus on the true indicators of how well a launch is going. Sales reports are not enough. What are the cars actually selling for at retail? Do the vehicles require incentives? Are dealers earning a profit? How are the residual values holding?

Second, the company must deliver a high-quality product if sales are to be sustained. Getting things right from the start has become the price of admission. Even the most subtle mistakes—like user-unfriendly technology—can kill off an otherwise promising product.

Third, the vehicle must have appeal. Owner delight with the design, content, layout and performance can be objectively measured. Attributes such as drivability, instrument panel layout can make the buyer an advocate and give the launch momentum.

Fourth, the products must have durability and reliability. It takes about three years to get a good reading on how the consumer feels about these two qualities. But we do know there is a direct relationship between a brand’s reputation for reliability and durability and its performance. So part of the assessment should include a look at the reputation of the brand. Where the reputation is strong, the launch gets a boost.

Fifth, while manufacturers launch cars, dealers sell them. The dealer’s willingness to put his best sales people on the new product, advertise vigorously, finance, carry and merchandise (a fancy word for trick out) the requisite inventory is all a reflection of the dealer’s confidence in the franchise. Brands that enjoy a high level of dealer confidence and exclusive dealership facilities have a more effective channel for launching a new vehicle.

 Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204886304574308202570479912.html

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Posted in Autos - Travel, Mktg - Product & Innovation | 1 Comment »