The Homa Files

Ken’s Take:

I’m an avid follower of political polls.  So, the other nite when a CNN reporter said that President Obama’s high job approval ratings were still holding, it aroused my curiosity.  After all, that’s not what I recollected seeing in the polls.

My first stop: www.RealClearPolitics.com — a site that tracks polls and combines them into a “poll of polls”.

Here’s the headline on RCP:
“Gallup: Obama Suffers Worst Quarter Drop in Approval Since 1953”

Barack Obama has suffered the worst quarterly decline in his public approval rating of any elected president in the post-World War II era.

Obama’s average quarterly approval rating has slipped from 62 percent in the second quarter to 52.9 percent in the third quarter, according to Gallup polling.

That 9 percentage point decline is twice the amount of any other post-war elected president.

No other elected president has declined more than 5 points since 1953. 

Obama suffered the bulk of his decline in late summer, though the media was slow to notice or note.

Since summer, Obama has stabilized and generally bobbed a sliver above the 50 percent mark.

Among all presidents since WWII, Obama’s third quarter approval rating is above only Bill Clinton and Gerald Ford. Clinton averaged 48 percent in the third quarter of 1993. Ford averaged 39 percent during his 1975 third quarter.

Gallup reports that Obama’s latest quarterly average ranks 144th, or in the 44th percentile, for all post-war presidents during any quarter.

http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2009/10/21/poll-obama-worst-decline-in-approval-since-wwii/

It gets even more interesting.

RCP says that the current average rating across major polls is 52.4%.  CNN reports  55%.  Hmmm.

Interestingly, CBS reports a higher number — 56% and ABC reports a still higher 57%.  Three mainstream media shops reporting the 3 highest numbers in the sample.  Double hmmm.

The 2 surveys generally considered the most objective are Gallup — which leans a little bit left — and Rasmussen — which leans right.

Gallup reports 50%; Rasmussen calls it 47%.

So, three mainstream networks average about 7 points more than the 3rd party sources.  I’d call that statistically significant.  And, I don’t call it a coincidence …

BTW: note that Fox reports 49% — between Rasmussen & Gallup.  I didn’t throw Fox in with either group since some folks question their objectivity and they’ve been stripped by the WH of their “news network” status.

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The Data

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

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Note that both Gallup and Rasmussen show a decline in job approval from the high 60%s to 50% plus or minus a little. 

Gallup bounces around a little above 50%,’ Rasmussen a little below 50%.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/gallup-daily-obama-job-approval.aspx

 
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

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The number I like to watch is Rasmussen’s PAI — Presidential Approval Index — the difference between the % of people who strongly approve and the 5 who strongly disapprove.

Early on, Obama’s PAI was as high as plus 30%.  Now, it’s down to minus 13% — with 27% strongly approving and 40% strongly disapproving.  That means that almost 80% of the folks who disapprove, strongly disapprove.  That’s a high intensity factor.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

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This entry was posted on October 22, 2009 at 7:59 am and is filed under Obama Administration, Polls & Surveys. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.