Archive for October 30th, 2009

Must read: "Americans feel increasingly disheartened, and our leaders don’t even notice."

October 30, 2009

Ken’s Take: I’ve said many times before that I love reading Peggy Noonan — even though I don’t always agree with her .  (For my more  liberal friends, keep in mind that she was onboard the Obama train in ’08.)

What she’s always able to do is dive down beneath the superficial and get to the core — the philosophical and emotive stuff that most other analysts miss.  She invariably provokes my thinking … and, she’s a wonderful writer to boot.

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Excerpted from WSJ: We’re Governed by Callous Children, Oct. 29, 2009 

The new economic statistics put growth at a healthy 3.5% for the third quarter. We should be dancing in the streets. No one is, because no one has any faith in these numbers.

Waves of money are sloshing through the system, creating a false rising tide that lifts all boats for the moment. The tide will recede. The boats aren’t rising, they’re bobbing, and will settle.

No one believes the bad time is over. No one thinks we’re entering a new age of abundance. No one thinks it will ever be the same as before 2008.

Economists, statisticians, forecasters and market specialists will argue about what the new numbers mean, but no one believes them, either. Among the things swept away in 2008 was public confidence in the experts.

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The biggest threat to America right now is not government spending, huge deficits, foreign ownership of our debt, world terrorism, two wars, potential epidemics or nuts with nukes.

The biggest long-term threat is that people are becoming and have become disheartened, that this condition is reaching critical mass, and that it afflicts most broadly and deeply those members of the American leadership class who are not in Washington, most especially those in business.

It is a story in two parts. The first: “They do not think they can make it better.”

The most sophisticated Americans, experienced in how the country works on the ground, can’t see a way out.

This is historic. This is something new in modern political history … Americans are starting to think the problems we are facing cannot be solved.

Part of the reason is that the problems—debt, spending, war—seem too big.

But a larger part is that our federal government, from the White House through Congress, and so many state and local governments, seems to be demonstrating every day that they cannot make things better.

They are not offering a new path, they are only offering old paths—spend more, regulate more, tax more in an attempt to make us more healthy locally and nationally. And in the long term everyone—well, not those in government, but most everyone else—seems to know that won’t work.

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And so the disheartenedness … of even those who have something.

This week the New York Post carried a report that 1.5 million people had left high-tax New York state between 2000 and 2008, more than a million of them from even higher-tax New York City. They took their tax dollars with them—in 2006 alone more than $4 billion.

You know what New York, both state and city, will do to make up for the lost money. They’ll raise taxes.

I talked with an executive this week.   He was thoughtful, reflective about the big picture. He talked about all the new proposed regulations on industry. Rep. Barney Frank had just said on some cable show that the Democrats of the White House and Congress “are trying on every front to increase the role of government in the regulatory area.”

The executive said of Washington: “They don’t understand that people can just stop, get out. I have friends and colleagues who’ve said to me ‘I’m done.’ ” He spoke of his own increasing tax burden and said, “They don’t understand that if they start to tax me so that I’m paying 60%, 55%, I’ll stop.”

Government doesn’t understand that business in America is run by people, by human beings.

Mr. Frank must believe America is populated by high-achieving robots who will obey whatever command he and his friends issue.

But of course they’re human, and they can become disheartened. They can pack it in, go elsewhere, quit what used to be called the rat race and might as well be called that again since the government seems to think they’re all rats.

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And here is the second part of the story.

While Americans feel increasingly disheartened, their leaders evince a mindless callousness.

It is a curious thing that those who feel most mistily affectionate toward America, and most protective toward it, are the most aware of its vulnerabilities, the most aware that it can be harmed. They don’t see it as all-powerful, impregnable, unharmable. The loving have a sense of its limits.

When I see those in government, both locally and in Washington, spend and tax and come up each day with new ways to spend and tax—health care, cap and trade, etc.—I think: Why aren’t they worried about the impact of what they’re doing? Why do they think America is so strong it can take endless abuse?

They don’t feel anxious, because they never had anything to be anxious about. They grew up in an America surrounded by phrases—”strongest nation in the world,” “indispensable nation,” “unipolar power,” “highest standard of living”—and they are not bright enough, or serious enough, to imagine that they can damage that, hurt it, even fatally.

We are governed at all levels by America’s luckiest children, sons and daughters of the abundance, and they call themselves optimists but they’re not optimists—they’re unimaginative.

They don’t have faith, they’ve just never been foreclosed on.

They are stupid and they are callous, and they don’t mind it when people become disheartened. They don’t even notice.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703363704574503631430926354.html?mod=djemEditorialPage

Squandering hope … the politics of blame & attack.

October 30, 2009

Excerpted from Weekly Standard: Obamaland – Squandering hope, channeling Nixon, 10/29/2009

The transition from campaigning to governing has not been kind to President Obama.

As a candidate he spoke of hope, change and ending the polarization of the past; he promised to bring people together; he pledged a new style of civil political engagement; he sought to lift us as a people above surly partisan warfare.

As president, he sucked the veracity from these hopes.

Maybe this was the plan all along. Politicians often say one thing and do another.

Or perhaps, he succumbed to inexorable forces and patterns that swallow every idealistic elected official trying to navigate the Washington swamp.

Whatever the reason, Obama has fallen short of those lofty aspirations.

After ten months in office a clear pattern has emerged. Instead of hope and change, it’s blame and attack.

Obama rarely gives a speech about a pressing national problem–the economy, health care, the budget deficit–without blaming Republicans or former president George W. Bush.

For many Americans it’s getting old. It makes the president look small and petty. Does he want America’s respect or its pity?

Attack is the other side of this strategy.

Playing Chicago-style politics comes naturally to this White House, populated with a cadre of former Obama for president staffers and others steeped in the tactics of the permanent campaign. And they don’t merely assault an enemies list. “We routinely hear about phone calls from the president’s staff to congressional Democrats expressing White House dissatisfaction if someone says anything out of line with Obama’s policies,” a senior congressional aide told me.

The gap between the president’s campaign rhetoric compared to his governing style creates a harsh cognitive dissonance and a toll in the polls.

And the slide will likely persist as the White House continues to force its vision of change on a country that lacks consensus in many areas.

Full article:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/017/132koltj.asp?pg=2

At home, Dos Equis says “no mas” to Corona …

October 30, 2009

TakeAway:  Unimaginative marketing, poor portfolio mix, and inattentive product management have caused Femsa, Mexico’s historic beer market leader, to lose 12% market share and drop to a distant second place in the Mexican domestic beer market. 

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Excerpted from WSJ, “Beer’s Glory Days Fade at Femsa,Leaving Brewer Eyeing Options,” By Jose De Cordoba and David Kesmodel, October 19, 2009

The Dos Equis beer ad campaign, “The Most Interesting Man in the World,” has gone viral in the U.S., helping to boost sales of the Mexican import.

But in Mexico, few consumers have ever heard the suave gentleman’s voice … and Femsa’s beer market share has dropped … 

Lack of marketing imagination at home is one reason why Femsa, the company that makes Dos Equis, has been overtaken south of the border by archrival Grupo Modelo SAB, maker of Corona beer …

In the past two decades, Femsa—which makes Sol, Tecate, Indio, and Bohemia as well as Dos Equis—has seen its share of Mexico’s beer market fall to 43% from a once-dominant 55%. Modelo overall has a 57% share, with its Corona brand accounting for 31% on its own.

Femsa recently acknowledged it was contemplating selling its beer business or making a strategic alliance with one of the world’s brewing giants …

Analysts say a key reason Femsa is considering teaming up with a bigger brewer is that the landscape of the beer business has changed rapidly. Increasingly, the global market is dominated by giants such as Anheuser-Busch InBev, and SABMiller … Family-run Femsa has annual beer sales of about $4 billion, compared with roughly $35 billion and $21 billion at Anheuser-Busch InBev and SABMiller, respectively.

And last year, when InBev bought Anheuser-Busch … it took over Anheuser-Busch’s 50% non-controlling stake in Grupo Modelo, giving Femsa’s rival a new deep-pocketed uncle …

Femsa has partners of its own, but the scale is much smaller …

Although Femsa’s beer business has been lagging, the company is doing well in its two other main business lines: soft drinks and convenience stores. Last year, it had operating profits of $2B on revenue of $15B … in the last decade, revenue and profits have surged seven fold …

Mr. Fernandez, the current CEO who took the helm at Femsa in 1995 … has placed less emphasis on beer … he has a love affair with his two new babies, Coca-Cola and Oxxo … has put much of his focus on the OXXO convenience stores … It’s by far the largest convenience store chain in Mexico … three times the number of all its competitors combined.

OXXO has played a key role in defending Femsa’s market share, as it provides points of sale for Femsa’s beers. Indeed, some analysts fear Femsa’s share of the beer market would have fallen much more had it not been for the support from OXXO stores and worry Femsa’s share of the beer market could fall further once OXXO reaches a saturation point.

In Mexico, Femsa is known for being efficient in brewing and sales, but has struggled to develop expertise in marketing. “They are still trying to find the right portfolio mix, which brands to push in which markets,” said an analyst with Barclays Capital …

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Full Article
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704112904574477272483981410.html?mod=article-outset-box

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Marketing that goes down the toilet … literally.

October 30, 2009

TakeAway:  Very little is off limits anymore when it comes to marketing. 

Making all marketers proud, the “adults wipes segment”  is getting more graphic and more descriptive.  YIPES.

I’m a proponent of good benefits advertisng, but this one makes me very, very queasy.

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Excerpted from NYTimes, “Adult Toilet Training, From Madison Ave.,” By Andrew Adam Newman, October 20, 2009

Toilet tissue advertising traditionally has featured fluffy clouds, cherubic toddlers and Mr. Whipple … But the ads remained steadfastly oblique about what consumers do after they tear along the perforated line.

With the prevalence these days of commercials for erectile dysfunction drugs and risqué network programming, however, tissue brands also are growing more frank … 

Cottonelle just launched a new commercial and a new Web site, CottonelleInstitute.com, to highlight not just the brand’s Aloe & E toilet paper but also its new flushable moist wipes … With both products, the brand is breaking with tradition, trumpeting not softness but rather that it is “dermatologically tested” for sensitive skin.

“Dry toilet paper is generally thought of as being a functional product, and a lot of brands in the category talk about strength and softness,” said a brand manager for Cottonelle wipes. “But we are reframing the Cottonelle brand as a personal care brand, which is a much more emotional space.”

… and the brand is pitching both rolls and wipes in one advertisement, in the hope of increasing the use of wipes, which are purchased by only 25 percent of households, many of which use them only on what she called “select usage occasions” … 

Getting adults to use more wipes in the bathroom … requires marketers to engage in a sort of toilet training with grown-ups, and Cottonelle and other brands apparently think cultural taboos have relaxed enough to do exactly that …

The wipes segment has been fast growing with only modest marketing support … and marketers say the growth of wipes does not cannibalize sales of toilet paper, because consumers tend to use them not as a replacement but an added step …

Charmin also is pitching its wipes … as complementary to rolls, and has launched a new campaign … that includes a video “product demo” …

“It’s a pretty straightforward way of speaking to consumers and letting them know how best to use the products together to get cleaner,” said a Charmin brand manager. “To my knowledge it is the most clearly that we have laid it out so far.”

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Full Article
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/20/business/media/20adco.html?ref=media

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