The Homa Files

Let’s go out on a limb …

I”m posting this @ 7:59 a.m. and predicting that today’s the day that President Obama’s job approval — as measured by Gallup, a respected, slightly left leaning polling org — will drop below 50% for the first time.  If so, that’ll be a very big deal.

Why?

Major reason: yesterday’s number was 51% (chart below); today will be the first rating that fully reflects Saturday night’s healthcare vote (since Gallup is a 3-day moving average).

Secondary reason: backlash to the way the administration is handling the Afghanistan decision and the Fort Hood massacre.

Reason for confidence: Rassmussen — a slightly right leaning polling org — tends to lead Gallup by a day or two.  Rasmussen has Obama’s job approval down to 46% (chart below).

Note: Rasmussen posts around 9:30 am; Gallup in mid-afternoon.

We’ll see …

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Gallup

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

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Rasmussen

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

This entry was posted on November 12, 2009 at 7:59 am and is filed under Polls & Surveys. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.