Archive for June 10th, 2010

Perceptual Differences: Is 68 cents per day enough to “buy” seniors’ support ?

June 10, 2010

In marketing, there’s a concept called a “perceptual difference”.

The basic notion is that something has to be sufficiently different from a comparative benchmark in order to make a difference in the way people think about it.

For example, throwing an extra 1/2 ounce of Cheerios into a 14 ounce box probably doesn’t pass the perceptual difference test. It adds to the cost of the product, but probably doesn’t motivate buyers to pay more for it.

Increasing the contents by, say 20%, probably does .  Folks are likely to notice.  Whether they’re willing to pay more for the super-size is another question …

Which brings us to Pres Obama’s push to win seniors over to his health care plan.

Keep in mind that roughly half ObamaCare’s comes from $500 billion in Medicare cuts – half from cutting waste & fraud (yeah, right) and half by eliminating Medicare Advantage – a step-up HMO version of Medicare.

$500 billion passes the perceptual difference test, and seniors are taking the cuts personally.

To partially offset the cuts, ObamaCare is “filling the doughnut hole” in Bush’s prescription drug plan – a program that supplemented Medicare to cover seniors’ prescriptions – but only up to a certain amount – and then kicked back in for extraordinary prescription drug users. The gap between “a certain amount” and “extraordinary – designed to suppress unnecessary prescriptions “at the margin” – is the “doughnut hole”.

To close the doughnut hole, Obama is sending each Medicare senior a check for $250 – the equivalent of 68 cents per day. Hardly a perceptual difference.

Does the administration really think that 68 cents a day will get old folks to think that $500 billion in cuts is good for them ?

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Side note: The notion of perceptual differences also provides an explanation for why Obama doesn’t get credit for his “tax cut to 95% of workers”.  His “making work pay” program paid out a max of $400 to workers – that’s a little over $1 per day.  A significant perceptual difference ?

Draw your own conclusion.

ESPN Zones: Going … going … gone !

June 10, 2010

ESPN found it increasingly challenging to operate the sports-themed restaurants and will be closing ESPN Zones five of its seven ESPN Zone locations: Baltimore, Chicago, New York, Las Vegas and Washington.  Locations in Los Angeles and Anaheim will stay open.

ESPN Zone, an arcade-style restaurant used as a brand extension for the popular sports network, becomes a victim of the economic downturn, where consumers increasingly cut back on visits to restaurants. 

WSJ: Disney to Close Most ESPN Zone Restaurants, June 9, 2010 
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703890904575296690000235662.html?mod=WSJ_hps_MIDDLEForthNews

Rent vs. Buy: The rule of 15

June 10, 2010

Punch line: If the annual rent for a home is less than 1/15th of a comparable home’s market value … rent, don’t buy.

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Excerpted from WSJ: A Fresh Look at Rent vs. Buy, June3, 2010

Is it cheaper to buy, or to rent?

The cross-over point is about 15 times annual rent.

In other words, as a rough rule of thumb, homes are probably fairly valued in a city when they cost about 15 times a year’s rent.

So, for example, if you’re paying $10,000 a year to rent a place, think twice about buying a home that costs more than $150,000.

So what’s the multiple in New York right now?

The average two-bedroom condo or townhouse in New York city costs about 32 times as much to buy as it does to rent.

Other major markets over 20 times include Seattle (24 times), San Francisco (22 times) and Portland, Ore. (22 times).

On the other hand Miami list prices are now about eight times annual rents. Phoenix is about 10 times and Las Vegas about 11.

Note: a cut-off point at 15 times rents may be on the low side … it assumes you’re only going to stay in your home for the typical seven years. If you stay a lot longer, the transaction costs of buying and selling become less and less important. That makes owning more attractive – hence a higher multiple.

The cult of homeownership makes no sense. If renting is much cheaper than buying, think seriously about it.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052748703561604575282910161870380-lMyQjAxMTAwMDAwNDEwNDQyWj.html