Archive for January 10th, 2011

Fuzzy math: About that remarkable drop in the unemployment rate …

January 10, 2011

Let’s see, the BLS reports 100k jobs added in Dec. –– pushing the unemployment rate down from 9.8% to 9.4% – giving Obama & Goolsbee fodder to crow that their economic programs are “clearly working”.

Hmmm.

According to the BLS data set, in Nov. there were 238.715 million non-institutionalized civilians age 16 and over … 153.950 of them were participating in the labor force by either being employed or actively looking for work … that’s a 64.5% participation rate, down from 64.9% in May.

Of the 153.950 million … 138.909 (90.2%) were employed, 15.041 (9.8% – rounded up from 9.77%) were unemployed.

Then the BLS reported that about 100k jobs were added in Dec.

OK, let’s do the math.

138.909 million employed in Nov. plus 100k jobs added in Dec. equals 139.009 employed in Dec. …  which divided by 153.950 participants equals 90.3% employed … or, flipping the numbers, 9.7% unemployed … down from the rounded 9.8% in Nov.

But, the Feds say unemployment went from 9.8% to 9.4% … how can that be?

Simple.

First, the unemployment number comes from a different source: household surveys vs. employer surveys.

The household survey says that 297k jobs were added … 3 times what the employers say they added.

OK,  let’s recalculate.

138.909 million employed in Nov. plus 297k jobs added in Dec. equals 139.206 employed in Dec. …  which divided by 153.950 participants equals 90.4% employed … or, flipping the numbers, 9.6% unemployed … down from the rounded 9.8% in Nov. and the 9.7 based on the employer data.

But, the Feds say unemployment went down to 9.4% … where’s the other .2% ?

Simple.

260k unemployed people who were previously participating in the labor force by at least looking for work got sufficiently discouraged (or distracted by Xmas) that they stopped looking for jobs … so the labor pool denominator dropped to 153,690.

Let’s re-do the math one more time.

138.909 million employed in Nov. plus 297k jobs added in Dec. (according to the household survey) equals 139.206 employed in Dec. …  which divided by 153.690 participants equals 90.6% employed … or, flipping the numbers, 9.4% unemployed … down from the rounded 9.8% in Nov.

Presto.

Bottom line: if government policies can simply discourage another 7 million people enough that they stop looking for work, we’ll have the unemployemnt problem fixed.

Posted in Economics, Employment - Jobs | Leave a Comment »

“It starts with the product …”

January 10, 2011

TakeAway: Consumers are still cash-strapped, but that hasn’t stopped Ford from selling more cars. The company’s sales were up 19% last month, and its year-to-date sales increased 21% versus the last year.  Ford’s secret?  “It all starts with product.”  Because without product, there’s nothing to market!

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Excerpted from Forbes, “Ford: How To Maintain A Sales Streak In Tough Times” By Elaine Wong, November 5, 2010

Ford’s VP of U.S. marketing, sales and service describes how Ford is tapping into social media and consumer trends toward vehicle customization, fuel efficiency and higher product quality to drive sales in an economic downturn.

Ford’s product development team has been focused on their four pillars – quality, green, safety and smart. The sales and marketing team  has done a lot of work to transform the image of Ford to being not just a company that makes the bestselling truck [F-Series] in America for 33 years or the Mustang, but a company that delivers products that are fun to drive.

Ford has a program called Drive One 4 UR School, where thousands of dealers help support local high schools, many of which are under a lot of financial stress. Fundraisers give people a chance to test drive new products. People aren’t naturally inclined to go to the dealer to get a new car when they go to a school event, but if they’re test driving it to help raise funds for their school and as part of a no-pressure environment, they may reconsider.

Ford is continuing its “rant” style of advertising when launching its new campaign for the F-150.  The ads cut through the clutter, have great recall among consumers and, if imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, more kinds of advertising with the “rant” style are being used in Iots of other commercials.

Edit by AMW

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Full Article:
http://www.forbes.com/2010/11/05/ford-sales-strategy-economy-social-media-elaine-wong-cmo-network_print.html

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Posted in Mktg - Product Line Mgnt, Mktg - Promotion | Leave a Comment »