Archive for October 19th, 2011

Squeezing Buffett’s numbers … Part 3

October 19, 2011

In Part 1, we looked hard at Buffett’s effective income tax rate (17.4%), and showed how he could get to that low rate by offsetting practically all of his ordinary income with $23 million in deductions.

This conclusion debunks the popular pundit point that he gets to the rate by having practically all of his income in capital gains and dividends.

In Part 2, we showed that about $20 million of the deductions are probably charitable contributions – a device that rich folks use to (1) do good things and (2) to manage down their tax liabilities.

Better to give to a cause that you believe in, right?  Why give it to the government and have it waste the money?

Today, let’s look at the popular headline: “Buffett’s Tax Rate Lower than His Secretary’s”

Since we don’t know his secretary’s specifics, we looked at 3 hypotheticals: a single taxpayer (i.e. not married), all ordinary income,  no dependents, standard deduction (i.e. doesn’t itemize).

The bottom line: The headline seems reasonable.  In each of 3 income scenarios ($50k, $75k and $100k) the rate to taxable income is in the lower 20s – about 5 points higher than Buffett’s rate.

But, keep reading …

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First, these are scenarios the get to the highest possible tax rates – a joint-married filer with dependents and itemized deductions would pay less.

Nonetheless, it’s hard to imagine an ordinary person closing the gap to Warren’s rate unless they had a big mortgage deduction and played the charity angle: giving a lot to charity to shelter income down to the 15% rate.

For example, if our 50K single taxpayer had no mortgage interest and paid about 5% in state & local taxes, he could make a charitable contribution of about $10,000 and land in the 15% tax bracket (which is capped at $34,000)

Here’s the arithmetic: $50,000 less $3,650 in exemptions, less about $2,500 in state and local taxes, less $10,000 in charitable deductions is less than$34,000 – which is the top of the 15% bracket.

The charitable deduction would be 20% of AGI … which is lower than Buffett’s apparent 30% donations’ rate ($20 million / $63 million = 31.4%) … but probably not practical at that income level.

And, using the same logic, getting our $75k and $100k ordinary income earners into the 15% bracket would require a  charitable giving rate approaching 50% of AGI.

That certainly doesn’t seem practical.

What’s the point?

Buffett’s case illustrates how a completely discretionary itemized deduction – charitable contributions – can be used by folks – especially rich folks – to shelter ordinary income from taxes … and get them to a low effective tax rate.

That’s not a shot at charitable deductions – more on that in subsequent posts – just raises the point that closing the gap between Buffett and his secretary may be less a matter of raising tax rates (on capital gains) and more a matter of how deductions are allowed and applied.

More to come ..

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Occupy Wall Street … by the numbers.

October 19, 2011

According to Democratic pollster Doug Schoen:

Research shows clearly that the movement doesn’t represent unemployed America and is not ideologically diverse.

Rather, it comprises an unrepresentative segment of the electorate that believes in radical redistribution of wealth, civil disobedience and, in some instances, violence.

Specifically …

  • Half (52%) have participated in a political movement before
  • Virtually all (98%) say they would support civil disobedience to achieve their goals
  • Nearly one-third (31%) would support violence to advance their agenda.
  • The vast majority of demonstrators are actually employed
  • An overwhelming majority of demonstrators supported Barack Obama in 2008.
  • Now 48% say they will vote to re-elect him in 2012, while at least a quarter won’t vote.
  • 65% say that government has a moral responsibility to guarantee all citizens access to affordable health care, a college education, and a secure retirement—no matter the cost.
  • By a large margin (77%-22%), they support raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans, but 58% oppose raising taxes for everybody,

Schoen’s bottom line: Occupy Wall Street is a group of engaged progressives who are disillusioned with the capitalist system and have a distinct activist orientation.

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For Groupon, suddenly, $5.6 billion is looking better …

October 19, 2011

Punch line: Groupon’s luster – and valuation – are starting to fade.  These guys will rue the day they sent Google packing.

According to the WSJ:

Last year, four mutual fund companies – including Growth Fund of America, T. Rowe Price and Fidelity Investments — invested in Groupon at a price that valued the entire company at $4.7 billion,

Then,  Groupon turned down an offer from Google reported to be just south of $6 billion?

At the time, Groupon was said to have potential IPO valuations ranging from $15 billion to as high as $30 billion.

But the U.S. IPO market has been largely dormant, the Securities and Exchange Commission has required more-conservative accounting from Groupon, and a top company executive has departed.

Some IPO analysts now predict a Groupon IPO, if completed, might value the company at $5 billion to $10 billion.

If the valuation keeps falling, some early-in funds may find themselves marking down the value of their holdings on their books.

Of course, I’m betting the under …

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