A couple of data points …
The BLS weekly new unemployment claims averaged 363,000 in March … they’ve been just short of 390,000 the past couple of weeks.
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Challenger reported an increase in job cuts — vs. last month and vs. same month last year.
U.S.-based employers announced planned job cuts totaling 40,559 during the month of April.
That is a 7.1 percent increase from job cuts announced in March.
April job cuts were up 11.2 percent from the same month a year ago.
So far this year, employers have announced 183,653 job cuts, 9.8 percent more than the job cuts by this point in 2011.
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Gallup’s daily tracking of unemployment has been running between 8.3% and 8.4% for the past week or so.
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Yesterday, ADP reported that the private sector added just 119,000 jobs in April
Private-sector employment increased by just 119,000 in April, according a report from ADP that puts a dent into the notion that the jobs market is on the path to a solid recovery.
The report was well below forecasts of 170,000 and comes after a string of stronger numbers.
ADP said service-sector jobs rose by 123,000, but construction fell by 5,000
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Let’s see: unemployment claims are up, Gallup says 8.4%, ADP reports a slowing of job growth (below what’s need to keep pace with typical labor market growth).
So, what’ll be the BLS unemployment number?
My bet: the mysterious seasonal adjustments coupled with more discouraged workers no longer looking for work will keep the unemployment rate at 8.2%
We’ll see.
The Homa Files 