The Homa Files

Obama’s job approval numbers have dropped significantly in the past  week … into the mid-40s … in both the Gallup & Rasmussen daily tracking polls.

He has been underwater by a point or two in Rasmussen for the past couple of weeks.

But, he was riding 50-plus approval numbers in Gallup until the past couple of days … so the drop in that survey is big news.

Why is this a big deal?

Pundits’ wisdom is than an incumbent’s vote ceiling is his job approval number going into the election … and, if it’s below 50, that’s obviously bad news.

What might explain the drop?

Couple of hypotheses:

1) Obama’s negative campaigning and quirky ads (e.g. “First Time”) this week may have turned some folks off.

2) Benghazi-gate may be catching up to him … especially the dead Seal’s father going public with his disappointment on Obama’s reaction.

3) The giant thud heard when he released his 20-page glossy economic plan

4) The polls may be whacky … especially Gallup, which has been very erratic since it changed its methodology a month or so ago.

* * * * *
Focus on the polls since Oct. 23 … toss out the CBS poll which is broadly considered a partisan outlier. 

This entry was posted on October 28, 2012 at 6:59 am and is filed under 2012 Campaign, Polls & Surveys. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.