The Homa Files

If you answered  270  … you’re wrong.

The correct answer is 269.

And, if Romney prevails with 269 electoral votes, there’s a quirky possibility that Biden could be his VP.

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What if Obama & Romney tie at 269 ?

Given the 2012 swing states, it is unlikely , but mathematically possible for Obama and Romney to each win 269 electoral votes.

As we’ve posted before, a tie would be resolved in the House (for President) and in the Senate (for Vice President).

• See: What happens if no presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes?

Practically every pundit and pollster is predicting that the GOP will win a majority of states in the House.

• Important technical note: the new House & Senate get sworn in on January 3rd source and hold a joint session on January 6th to “count and announces the results of the Electoral College vote” source

So, in the case of a tie, the House would pick the President … and, assuming that the GOP wins the House, Romney wins with 269 electoral votes

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What about the Vice Presidency ?

Remember, the Senate picks the VP.

I’d been assuming that the Senate would certify Ryan if there was a tie … regardless of whether Dems or GOP win the Senate

I overlooked a major factor: the Vice President also holds another postion — President of the Senate.

That’s a largely ceremonial role … except that the VP votes to breaks ties in Senate votes.

That’s why things get interesting.

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What if the Senate-elect is tied 50-50

If there’s a tie and the GOP wins the Senate … Ryan gets the VP slot.

If the Dems win the Senate by a couple of seats, my bet is that they would allow Ryan to prevail rather than set-up a ridiculous Romney-Biden pairing.

After all, Romney would just deploy Joe to supermarket openings and state funerals.

But,if the Senate-elect is split 50-50, then the VP slot becomes very meaningful.

Remember that the VP is the President of the Senate and votes to break ties.

Here’s a quirk: Biden – as sitting VP – would get a vote on who wins – him or Ryan.

And, in a 50-50 Senate, there are likely to be a lot of ties … making the President of the Senate position very important.

So, you gotta expect that Biden would vote for himself – as VP – but, more meaningfully, as President of the Senate.

Bingo.  A Romney-Biden scenario.

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This entry was posted on October 29, 2012 at 6:59 am and is filed under 2012 Campaign, Electoral College. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.