Archive for the ‘Electoral College’ Category

Shocker: NFL to revamp scoring system …

November 16, 2016

Total net yards gained to determine game winners – not TDs, FGs and PATs.

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You may have missed this last week in the emotional aftermath of the election, but amid a sharp drop in TV ratings …

The NFL rules committee voted to fundamentally change the game’s scoring rules …. the ones that determine the winners and losers of games.

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In a nutshell, the team that gains the most yardage during a game will be declared the winner.

All yards gained will be counted – passing, rushing, kick & interception returns.

Penalty yardage will be deducted from a team’s total.

Team’s will get 10 bonus yards for each “classic” point scored … 60 yards for a TD, 30 yards for a FG, etc.

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Here’s how Commissioner Roger Goodell defended the rules change …

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What happens if no presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes?

January 28, 2016

Here’s an interesting twist: what if Michael Bloomberg runs as a 3rd party candidate and siphons some electoral votes from, say Clinton and Trump, keeping them both from attaining the  necessary 270 electoral votes.

Could create a very interesting situation.

bloomberg, mike

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So, what happens if none of the presidential candidates gets 270 electoral votes?

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Quick: Has any 3rd party presidential candidate ever won any electoral votes?

January 26, 2016

Lots of chatter around whether Michael Bloomberg will run as 3rd party candidates.

Raises a logical question …

bloomberg, mike

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Has any 3rd party presidential candidate ever won any electoral votes?

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Here’s a wild election scenario that you won’t see anywhere else …

August 7, 2015

First, a couple of disclaimers:

This is neither my prediction of what’s to come, nor my preference..

It’s just an oddball scenario that could conceivably happen.

 

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Bottom line:

All the pundits say that if Trump runs as a 3rd party candidate, then the GOP is toast..

I say: Not so fast …

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What happens if no presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes?

August 6, 2015

Let’s put another puzzle piece in place re: a wild scenario of how the GOP could prevail even if Trump runs as a 3rd party candidate …

Electoral College

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What happens if no presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes?

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Quick: Has any 3rd party presidential candidate ever won any electoral votes?

August 5, 2015

Lots of chatter around whether Trump (or Sanders) will run as 3rd party candidates.

Pundits are unanimous that a Trump 3rd party run would doom the GOP and hand the election to Hillary (presuming that she’s not in jail).

I’m not so sure.

In the next couple of posts, I’ll build to a scenario that has Trump running as a 3rd party candidate, but the GOP nominee getting the keys to the White House (<= note how I strained to avoid using the word “winning”).

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Let’s put the first puzzle piece in place and answer the question:

Has any 3rd party presidential candidate ever won any electoral votes?

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A 269 to 269 scenario … how a tie could happen.

October 30, 2012

WARNING: This is for hard core political junkies.

In a prior post – Trick question: How many electoral votes does Romney need to become President? – I showed that if Romney bagged 269 electoral votes he would become President and that Biden probably would be named VP.

I said the 269 tie was mathematically possible, but didn’t show how.

Martin Leborgne (MSB MBA ’03), a loyal Homa Files reader, replied with a fascinating election analysis that lays out a 269-269 scenario … and a couple of related strategy variations.

Great work, Martin.

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Martin Leborgne’s Analysis

The 269/269 electoral split is becoming more and more of a possibility.

Not saying a high probability option … just more and more of an option.

To do that:
1) Romney has to win FL & NC. (fine they’re leaning that way)
2) Mitt also take AZ, while Barack takes NM. (again, leaning that way)
3) Obama wins OH & MI – which as you said in a previous post is relatively likely.
4) Wisconsin goes to Obama
5) VA goes to Mitt
6) CO, IA, and NV also go to Mitt. (We’ll come back to these three.)

Essentially:
Mitt HAS to win CO, IA, NV, VA and FL just to push a 269 tie.
Assuming OH & Wisc goes blue.

So to win:
Romney has to hit those 5 states AND steal one other state.

Obama has to take just two of those states to win -> Wisc + one other.

Ohio certainly changes the landscape of what I’m writing here.

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BUT if Ohio goes Red: (Again, assuming FL is red) states in play are:
VA, Wisc, Col, IA, and Vegas-Baby!
44 unallocated. BO: 241, MR: 253.

To become the Leader of the Free World with OH and FL red:
MR has to win: 3 out of those 5, ORRRR VA + Wisconsin.
BO has to win: VA + Wisc + one other, ORRRR 4 of those 5.

Punch lines:
Game over of FL is blue.
OH def changes the landscape.
If OH & Wisc go Obama, CO, IA, NV, and VA are a must win for just a shot (269 split here)
If OH & Wisc go Romney, MR will have 263, and will need 7 votes out of NV-6, CO-9, IA-6, and VA-13.

The no-kidding moment:
Things are a lot safer for Romney with OH in Red.

VA(13) and WISC(10) are must-must-must wins.

So with VA and Wisconsin going Red, does Mitt plan to go for OH or concede Ohio and go for 2/3 between IA, NV, and CO?

My thinking: Concede OH. Its uphill. Focus on VA and Wisc  just to make this is a close one.

Then focus on IA and NV.

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Whew!  Thanks, Martin.

Any other scenarios out there?

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Trick question: How many electoral votes does Romney need to become President?

October 29, 2012

If you answered  270  … you’re wrong.

The correct answer is 269.

And, if Romney prevails with 269 electoral votes, there’s a quirky possibility that Biden could be his VP.

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What if Obama & Romney tie at 269 ?

Given the 2012 swing states, it is unlikely , but mathematically possible for Obama and Romney to each win 269 electoral votes.

As we’ve posted before, a tie would be resolved in the House (for President) and in the Senate (for Vice President).

Practically every pundit and pollster is predicting that the GOP will win a majority of states in the House.

  • Important technical note: the new House & Senate get sworn in on January 3rd source and hold a joint session on January 6th to “count and announces the results of the Electoral College vote” source

So, in the case of a tie, the House would pick the President … and, assuming that the GOP wins the House, Romney wins with 269 electoral votes

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What about the Vice Presidency ?

Remember, the Senate picks the VP.

I’d been assuming that the Senate would certify Ryan if there was a tie … regardless of whether Dems or GOP win the Senate

I overlooked a major factor: the Vice President also holds another postion — President of the Senate.

That’s a largely ceremonial role … except that the VP votes to breaks ties in Senate votes.

That’s why things get interesting.

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What if the Senate-elect is tied 50-50

If there’s a tie and the GOP wins the Senate … Ryan gets the VP slot.

If the Dems win the Senate by a couple of seats, my bet is that they would allow Ryan to prevail rather than set-up a ridiculous Romney-Biden pairing.

After all, Romney would just deploy Joe to supermarket openings and state funerals.

But,if the Senate-elect is split 50-50, then the VP slot becomes very meaningful.

Remember that the VP is the President of the Senate and votes to break ties.

Here’s a quirk: Biden – as sitting VP – would get a vote on who wins – him or Ryan.

And, in a 50-50 Senate, there are likely to be a lot of ties … making the President of the Senate position very important.

So, you gotta expect that Biden would vote for himself – as VP – but, more meaningfully, as President of the Senate.

Bingo.  A Romney-Biden scenario.

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Update: What happens if no presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes?

October 22, 2012

Back in January, Homa Files posted the answer to the question.

At the time, it looked like Ron Paul might make a run as a 3rd party candidate, potentially being a spoiler, depriving Obama or Romney of the necessary 270 electoral votes.

Well, Paul is out of the picture … but there’s increased chatter that Obama and Romney could end up tied in electoral votes.

So, what happens if neither presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes?

As we reported in January, according to the Electoral College web site …

If no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes, the House of Representatives elects the President from the 3 Presidential candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each State delegation has one vote.

The Senate would elect the Vice President from the 2 Vice Presidential candidates with the most electoral votes, with each Senator casting one vote for Vice President.

Note that for President, each state gets one vote in the House … not each rep.  So a majority of each state’s reps determine the state’s vote.

And, yes, it’s possible that the tickets could be split.

For example, the GOP House-elect would certainly pick Mitt … and the Senate Dem majority could select Biden … and certainly would if the Senate-elect is split 50-50 between Dems and GOP.   For details, see our post Trick question: How many electoral votes does Romney need to become President?

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Click here for a short video: What If the Presidential Election is a Tie?

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