Sandy’s impact on the election

Pundits have been speculating re: the impact that Sandy will have on the Presidential election.

Generally, the chatter is about the possibility of low turnout in some swing places like  central city Philly (not sure why) and southwestern Virginia (blizzards).

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My take: Sandy increases the probability of one possible outcome – that Obama wins the electoral college and Romney wins the popular vote …  maybe by a statistically significant margin.

My logic: The hardest  hit states are all solid Blue: MD, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA

Obama will undoubtedly carry those states … by big margins.

So, put yourself in the shoes of somebody who is still bailing water out of his basement, or rebuilding his house, or just waiting for the electricity to finally go back on.

Are you going to drop everything and hustle to the polls to cast an insignificant vote?

I wouldn’t … except maybe if there was a close local race that I was interested in.

So, I predict that Obama will win the Sandy states, but by a lesser margin than he would have sans Sandy.

Since the states are major population states, that drop could be significant.

So, it’s entirely possible that Obama ekes out an electoral victory, but loses the popular vote.

Just maybe …

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Related:

For a nice recap of the legal aspects of delaying the election, extending hours, etc., see  Could Sandy postpone the election?

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One Response to “Sandy’s impact on the election”

  1. Chris Says:

    I agree except for the wild card:

    How much federal aid will Obama release to address the unseen and unreported – yet very significant – damage hurricane Sandy did in FL, OH and WI.

    How has the Florida economy been devastated due to New Yorkers cancelling mid-fall vacations?

    How many auto workers in Ohio will be furloughed due to lost sales days on the East Coast?

    How can we ignore the suffering of average people in Wisconsin that this storm has wrought?

    We may not know the full extent of this damage – and how much money it will take to fix – until the BLS report is out on Friday… maybe not until first set of exit polls are available on Tuesday…

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