The Homa Files

The headline this afternoon was Pew’s final pre-election survey:

Obama 50%, Romney 47%.

Bummer … especially since Obama hits the magic 50%

But, Pew’s raw numbers were 48% to 45% … they then allocated 4 points of undecided voters 50/50. Huh?

So, Obama still below 50%.

Another ray of hope: margin of error 2 points … so it could be Romney 47%, Obama 46%

Key facts:

• Independents still  Romney 44%, Obama 41%
• Turnout : D = 36%, R = 32% , I = 29%

Let’s plug those numbers into our simple turnout model:

= = = = =
Required GOP Turnout

Now, let’s ask the question: how much does the GOP have to shrink the turnout differential to win with Pew’s numbers.

Answer: if the GOP can narrow the turnout differential to less than 1%, Mitt wins.

= = = = =
The Religious Factor

Romney wins:

• Protestants 52% to 42%
• White Catholics 55% to 41%

Obama wins “unaffiliated with religion” 66% to 24%

Per our post earlier today, I think religious groups may swing the election …

My final prediction comes tomorrow.

This entry was posted on November 4, 2012 at 6:20 pm and is filed under 2012 Campaign, Polls & Surveys. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.