The Homa Files

Prediction: this will be a year when polls take a beating.

In the stretch run, all the polls shift to “likely voters”.

Each poll has a different method for categorizing a respondent as a likely voter

The two prevalent metrics are (1) did they vote in 2008, and (2) do they say they’re going to vote

I think that both measures may be suspect this year.

First, it’s commonly reported that many of Obama’s 2008 voters will stay home this year.  Think, college students.

Second, self-reporting typically overstates likelihood to vote.  Its a common survey bias – folks don’t want to admit that they’re going to skip their civic duty.

Third, this is an election that will be determined by turnout.

Dems have an info systems advantage and have a strong ground game – largely driven by unions and paid organizations.

GOP has an old school GOTV system – driven by volunteers and church groups … and, the GOP seems to have a significant enthusiasm advantage.

We’ll see what prevails on Tuesday … new school data-driven micro-targeting  and internet social networking or old school grind-it-out person-to-person mobilization.

Whichever prevails, it’ll be a classic case study.

This entry was posted on November 5, 2012 at 7:59 am and is filed under 2012 Campaign, Polls & Surveys. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.