The Homa Files

The CNN headline is “Deadlocked at 49%”

The polls’ internals tell a different story.

To get the tie, CNN uses a turnout mix that’s Dems +11% … 3 points higher than 2008.

Nobody is predicting that.

Even at Dems  +11 Romney ties … thanks to a 59% to 37% lead with Independents.

Bottom line: Based on the CNN internals, if turnout is the same mix as 2008 (Dems +8%), Romney wins by 2.5%

This entry was posted on November 5, 2012 at 11:48 am and is filed under 2012 Campaign, Polls & Surveys. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.