The Homa Files

Romney … wins popular vote, for sure

… wins an electoral college squeaker

…  Wisconsin seals the win; upset in Pennsylvania ; Ohio won’t matter.

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More specifically, I see the probabilities:

• 15% Romney wins electoral college in a landslide & wins popular vote
• 40% Romney wins electoral college in a squeaker & wins popular vote
• 25% Obama wins electoral college in a squeaker, but loses popular vote
• 20% Obama wins electoral college in a squeaker & wins popular vote
• 0%   Obama wins electoral college in a landslide & wins popular vote

So, to summarize:

• 55% chance that Romney wins electoral college
• 80% chance that Romney wins popular vote
• 45% chance that Obama wind electoral college
• 20% chance that Obama wins popular vote

Best guess: Romney wins popular vote 51.5% to 48.5% …. and wins about 285 electoral votes.

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Critical Factors

1. The 50% threshold … Romney may be right that 47% won’t vote for him under any circumstances … but, there have been a gazillion polls and, in very few polls, has Obama hit the magic 50%+1 … I buy the conventional wisdom that an incumbent rarely exceeds the last poll ratings … undecideds will break 3 to 1 for Romney.
2. Independents … Romney’s edge seems solid at about 10 points … and, there seem to be a lot of independents out there … may be the only “clean” polling data
3. Turnout … the thrill is gone … at worst, turnout will be Dems +4% … I expect GOP to come close to equaling Dem turnout in key swing states
4. Intensity … surveys say that the GOP has a 10 point lead in enthusiasm & intensity … if true, that’s worth 2% to 3% in the vote.
5. Religious groups … Evangelicals have lined up behind Romney; a strong minority of Catholics will still support Obama  – but that will be down from the 54% that he got in ‘08; folks are overlooking the Mormon factor – they vote GOP and will bloc vote this election; and, they are industrious, trained missionaries and know how to go door-to-door
6. Obama defections … still haven’t met anybody who voted McCain and now voting for Obama … Wash Post says 16% are going the other direction … hat’s a big swing.
7. Hispanics … Obama will win them big, but maybe not big enough … as the Univision guy said: “You didn’t keep your promise.” … that might shave some points and keep some Hispanics home.
8. Military … Colin Powell & Wesley Clark are Obama supporters, but over 300 retired generals & admirals support Romney … I expect military-related people to overwhelmingly vote for Romney … impacts Virginia (ships) and Ohio (tanks).
9. Tea Party … has been flying under the radar … almost nothing written about them … in polls, 20 to 25% of folks say they support the Tea Party …. I expect they’ll be a force on election day … ditto for the NRA and Chamber of Commerce
10. The economy, Benghazi, ObamaCare … all have to be taking a toll on Obama … question is how big a toll?

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Soft Stuff

1. Hurricane Sandy sucked much of the air out of the stretch run … but, positives seem to be dissipating for Obama … good that Christie give Romney a shout out Sunday night
2. Rasmussen … I’m intrigued that Rasmussen – an automated phone survey system – always scores Obama a couple of points lower than the personal interview surveys … hmmm … wonder why?
3. I got 6 GOTV calls on Friday and 5 on Saturday … from the NRP, Romney campaign, Allen campaign, Americans for Prosperity, Christian coalition, Catholic Rights Coalition, Gov. McDonnell, Pat Boone … Dem’s GOTV can’t be better than that
4. Clinton drew under 2,000 at an Ohio rally … Obama drew only 4,000 in Mentor, Ohio … Romney drew over 30,000 in Cincinnati, more  in Philly, event moved to VA Patriot Center today because of crowd size … I’ve seen cherry-picked interviews with folks who say they came to see Springsteen, not Obama …  for sure, nobody’s coming to Mitt rallies just to see Meat Loaf
5. On the stump: Romney is looking Presidential (tie & positive message) … Obama is open-collared, whining, attacking, looking tired … may just be me, but I see debate #1 being replayed in the closing arguments.
6. I know I’m biased, but Obama’s closing argument isn’t very compelling: “Yeah, things are bad, but would have been even worse.” … Benghazi neutralized the bin Laden kill … auto bailout is a strong wedge, but largely a non-issue except for NW Ohio and unions
7. “Vote for revenge” handed Romney a final days’ gift … on par with 47%, with worse timing.
8. At the moment of truth, I think many people at the margin will gamble with Romney rather than signing up for another 4 years of malaise.
9. But, I don’t underestimate the “power of free” … the nation may have reached the tipping point … it’s Obama’s ace in the hole
10. Regardless of the outcome, it’s going to get ugly … neither side will be gracious in defeat.

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Gut Check

I don’t give investment advice, but …

I think that – in the next 6 months — the stock market will go up 20% if Romney is elected and down 30% (sooner rather than later) if Obama is elected.

From the above, I think the probabilities of winning are 55% for Romney to 45% for Obama.

So, expected values are:

• Romney = 55% x 20% = 11% upside
• Obama =   45% x 30% = (13.5%) downside.
• Net expected value = (2.5%) loss

Bottom line: I sold mucho stocks into the rally a couple of weeks ago.

I figure that if Mitt wins I can buy back in and just miss part of the upside.

If Obama wins, I didn’t want to be caught holding stocks.

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OK, I’m on the record!

Let’s see what happens …

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This entry was posted on November 5, 2012 at 3:15 pm and is filed under 2012 Campaign, Polls & Surveys. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.