The Homa Files

OK, let’s role play.

You’re in a job interview or taking the GMAT or chatting with a shrink.

You’re presented with the following chart and asked to etch out the next couple of moves.

What’s your play?

Answer’s pretty clear right?

Looks like a recurring cycle that’s about to turn down.

Here’s the “so what?”

As you may have guessed, it’s a chart of the S&P 500 going back to the late 1990s.

Brings back distant memories.

Early in my career, I worked as an apprentice econometrician

My boss sent me off to chat with a very old dude who operated out of a cabin in New Hampshire.

The guy preached “cycles of seven” … and, he could show – with some arithmetic sleight of hand – how practically all business data could be restated in a 7-year cycle.

I thought the guy was pitching theoretical snake oil … but I never forgot him or his message.

He’d love the chart …  note that the peaks and troughs seem to occur regularly.

Giving a hard round, there seems to be a 7-year cycle.

Oh my …

And, where’s your money these days?

* * * * *
Follow-up … an interesting twist:

Curiosity got the better of me and I did some Googling.

Sure enough

There are folks pitching “Cycles of Seven: Every seven years there is, within the human system, a total change.”

And, weather watchers pointing out a “7 Year Storm Cycle: Katrina, Isaac, Hurricane Sandy And The Perfect Storm”

Lord, give me one more sign ….

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Tags: 7-year Cycles

This entry was posted on March 5, 2013 at 6:54 am and is filed under Cycles - Business Cycles, Stock Market. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.