Unemployment claims moving up … anybody notice?

A couple of weeks ago, the Administration and its friends were touting that  unemployment claims had dropped to historically low levels … proof positive that the pork-laden, 2009 Stimulus Spending Program worked … albeit 4 or 5 years after the program ended.




There has been a lot less chest-pounding the past couple of weeks.  Wonder why?


Here’s this week’s report from the Department of Labor:

In the week ending February 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 320,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 313,000.

The 4-week moving average was 304,750, an increase of 10,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 294,500.


Let’s chart that to put it in perspective:




Since the “historical trough”, the weekly numbers have trending up …  and are now at their highest point this year.

Hmmm, again.

But, weekly numbers are unreliable, right?

So, let’s look at the 4-week moving average:




To my naked eye, it kinda looks like a trend.

If anybody notices, my bet is that the Administration’s rationalization will be:

(1)  The numbers which were highly reliable a couple of weeks ago are now unreliable

(2)  There has been uncertainty re: funding of DHS

And, the odds-on favorite

(3)  Climate change: The wicked winter weather — attributable to global warming (err, I meant Climate Change) –- suppressed business activity and caused joblessness.

My bet: This will get lost in the shuffle between Hillary’s email’s and Iran’s muscle flexing.



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