The Homa Files

Everybody knows that Trump can’t win because he alienated Hispanics by saying that he’d build the wall and send illegals back to their home countries … where they can queue up to enter the U.S. legally.

For a typical pindit argument, see Business Insider  “Donald Trump may be dooming the GOP with a 10% chunk of the electorate”

Need data?

A recent Gallup poll has Trump’s favorability with Hispanics “underwater” by a whooping 51 points … that is, the spread between Hispanics viewing him favorably and those viewing him unfavorably is 51 points.

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Pundits assert confidently that Trump can’t win because a candidate unless he is competitive with Hispanics … and Trump isn’t close to being competitive.

Not so fast, pundits …

 

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Let’s look at the macro numbers.

According to Pew Research, there are about 11 million Hispanics eligible to vote.

But, consistently, only 8 million of them make it to the ballot box.

So, if Trump loses them all, he’s down 8 million votes.

That’s 6.5% of the roughly 125 million people who vote.

Obviously a problem.

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Would Trump lose all 8 million Hispanic votes?

Maybe, but maybe not.

True,his favorability is 51 points underwater.

But, drilling down, that 51% Gallup number is composed of 65% who view him unfavorably (ouch!) … and 14% who view him favorably..

So conceivably, Trump is only in the hole by less than 7 million votes.

Still 7 million is a big challenge.

How can Trump make up 7 million votes?

Here’s where the pundits have it all wrong.

They’re assuming a relative constant demographic mix of voters.

Key fact: In 2012, 126 million people voted … down from 131 million in 2008.

In total, some 93 million eligible citizens did not vote in 2012. Source

That’s the pool that Trump is energizing … folks who were hacked at government but were bored by Romney and didn’t didn’t think he would make much of a difference.

They stayed home.

If Trump can really energize and mobilize 10% of those folks, he overcomes the Hispanic deficit and wins the election.

You’re in peril if count the master marketer out too soon.

What a wild & crazy year in politics … I love it for the sheer entertainment value.

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This entry was posted on September 1, 2015 at 6:55 am and is filed under 2016 Campaign, 2016 Presidential Election, Hispanics, Trump, Donald. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.