Two coinciding events …
In my Strategic Business Analytics course, we’re dealing with “base rates” — the likelihood of something occurring given prior results in relatively similar situations.
And, a couple of weeks ago, Triple Crown winner American Pharoah won the Breeder’s Cup.
So, I thought it would be a good time to flashback to last May, when American Pharoah was heading into the Belmont as the odds-on favorite to win the Triple Crown … a case study in base rates.
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Originally posted May, 2014
On Saturday, American Pharoah will try to win the Belmont — capping off his Derby & Preakness wins to capture the oft-elusive Triple Crown.
Based on Triple Crown history, what are his chances?
The simple – but very deceiving answer is 35%.
31 horses have won both the Kentucky Derby & the Preakness …
11 of them have won the Belmont and the Triple Crown.
35% … about 1 out of 3.
That’s not bad, right?
Let’s slice the numbers a little finer …
The Homa Files 