Polls: Near-majority opposes GOP tax plan.

Gomer Pyle observes: Surprise, surprise, surprise.

MSM is taking great delight reporting polls that show a near- majority of opposing the emerging GOP tax plan.

Some polls have the opposition as high as 55%.

USA Today reports that 48% oppose it and explains:

“53% of those surveyed predict their own families won’t pay lower taxes as a result of the measure.”



Let’s unpack the survey results ….


1) Remember Mitt Romney’s 47% ?

Mitt observed that 47% of the country doesn’t pay Federal income taxes, so they’re unlikely to support legislation that cuts taxes on folks that do.

Note that 47% is remarkably close to 48%.

Ironically, the GOP tax plan is going to push the percentage of non-tax payers higher.

For the record, I’m not a big fan of more folks having no skin in the game. See My biggest beef with the GOP tax plan … for details.

And, the USA Today trumpets: “Almost all households making less than $10,000 a year would see minimal change”.

That may be statistically true, but ignores the fact that the GOP plan will provide more refundable tax credits to folks who don’t pay Federal income taxes.

Bottom line: Some of the 47% actually are getting a tax cut.


2) Revenge of the SALT lovers

On a population basis, there are a lot of folks living in CA, NY and NJ.

They’re cool with big government tax & spend at the Federal, state local levels.

Of course, the have to do a gut check with most of the SALT deduction going away.

Many think that others should subsidize their high SALT appetites.

So, they think that eliminating the SALT deduction is bad idea.

I respectfully disagree: It’s time to do away with SALT.

I’ll go out on a limb and say that those states are going to vote Democratic in 2018 – tax plan or no tax plan.


3) Hardly anybody has run their nums.

First, I’ll concede that  (1) the tax plan has been a moving target and (2) it’s tough getting the details.

That said, there are good summaries to browse … for example, the Tax Foundation’s recap.

And, last week we linked readers to a quick & dirty tax impact calculator.

See Reality Check: How much will YOUR income taxes go down (or up)?

Plug in your numbers and see how you’ll do.


So why is the GOP pushing ahead?

Again, according to the USA Today reporting:

One reason the GOP is moving ahead is that Republican voters are enthusiastic.

In the survey, they backed the tax bill by an overwhelming 71%-12%.

Two-thirds of Republicans predict their own taxes will be cut.

Nearly three-fourths say the bill will significantly boost the nation’s economy.

English translation: If you pay taxes, you’re probably a fan of tax cuts; if you don’t, you’re ambivalent or oppose them.

Makes sense, right?



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