GOP narrowing the Congressional “generic ballot” gap, but…

Will ‘hate trump love’ in the midterm elections?
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Lots of chatter re: a forthcoming ‘blue wave’ in the 2018 midterms.

The usual quantitative metric is the so-called Generic Congressional Ballot …. which queries folks on which parties’ (unnamed) Congressional candidate they’re likely to vote for.

At the end of 2017, the Dems had a 13 point advantage.

That gap has narrowed to under 4 points in the RCP poll-of-polls.

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And, the the most recent individual polls indicate that the gap is continuing to close…

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Specifically, the 4 polls completed so far in August have the gap at only 2.25 points.

And, looking back at those polls’ prior results shows an improved GOP position.

  • Reuters closed by 4 points from Dems +6 to Dems +2;
  • The Economist went from +4 to +3
  • IBD moved from Dems +8 to a tie
  • Rasmussen narrowed from +6 to + 4

So, pundits now seem to be hedging their their bets re: a GOP-damaging “Blue Wave”.

But…
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In 2016, Hillary oft-used the applause cliche: “Love will trump hate” … specifically referring to her love of all people (except ‘deplorables’, Catholics, etc.) and Trump’s minority-group phobias.

The 2018 midterm elections may prove that hate is a way stronger emotion than love.

Dems are likely to turn out in droves given the ferocity of the Trump-haters and the MSM’s constant anti-Trump hysteria.

The GOP may have some recent traction, but the Dem intensity will be hard to beat.

My bet: hate will trump love….

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One Response to “GOP narrowing the Congressional “generic ballot” gap, but…”

  1. Sam Says:

    Hi Prof, would be interesting for you to do an analysis on the Trump tax cut. Will it actually help the middle class (proportionally to the upper class) and is it worth the ballooning deficit? And while unemployment has continued to decrease, wages are stagnant. Any concerns there?

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