Today, the WSJ concedes that cases have spiked in some areas but advises us to…
Focus on the burden on hospitals, not on models’ oft-mistaken forecasts .
Specifically, the WSJ points out that — even in currently reported hot spots — hospitals have substantial unused capacity (beds) to cope with spikes …and, medical staffs are better prepared to treat patients more efficiently and more effectively.
Here are the numbers…
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According to the WSJ:
Hospitals have capacity
Even in New York City, hospital utilization never exceeded 85% of capacity and 89% for ICUs.
New York City has 29% of its hospital beds and 34% of its intensive care units now available.
While Arizona has had an uptick in hospitalizations, about 59% of its emergency beds and 17% of ICU beds are unused.
In Texas, hospitalizations have been climbing, but weekly fatalities are down 40% from a month ago … and more than a quarter (of hospital beds) are available.
Even in Houston which has experienced the biggest increase in hospitalizations, More than 20% of hospital beds are unused.
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But the models say…
A Massachusetts General Hospital model predicted more than 23,000 deaths within a month of Georgia reopening but the state had only 896.
Stanford epidemiologist John Ioannidis explains:
“Forecasts may be more likely to be published or disseminated, if they are more extreme.”
As Gov. Cuomo conceded: “All the early national experts, all the projection models . . . They were all wrong.”
Yet, Cuomo continues to blame his misjudgments on “just following the data”.
And, national Democrats and the press are still promoting worst-case predictions, almost as if they’re hoping for worse so they can prove Donald Trump wrong.
Hmmm.
The Homa Files 
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