Let’s start with the data …
The 7-day average of Covid cases is up 30% in past week
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The 7-day average of deaths is down 10% in past week.
How can this be?
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Bottom line: nobody really seems to know, but many hypotheses are floating around.
First, why a spike in cases?
- A 2nd spike was inevitable (Note: Fauci has been on & off this view a couple of times … he’s currently back on it)
- Re-openings are being done prematurely and too rapidly
- More testing is being done, so more positive diagnoses are to be expected
- In general, people are developing lockdown fatigue and getting sloppy re: social distancing and avoiding hot spot venues (e.g. bars)
- Specifically, blame it on the protests / riots … or Trump rallies … depending on your ideology
Again, these are hypotheses being bandied about … nothing more.
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And, what about deaths? Why aren’t they spiking, too?
Some hypotheses:
- There’ a time lag between diagnoses and deaths … diagnoses are a leading indicator, deaths are a lagging indicator
- Testing has increased, especially among asymptomatics … they may test positive but rarely die.
- Many of the most vulnerable have already dies … e.g. the more than 50,000 who have died in nursing homes.
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The most positive spin: An increase in non-fatal asymptomatic cases is building herd immunity … which is a good thing
The most negative spin: The rise in cases is, in fact, an early indication of a 2nd wave, so fasten your seatbelts
Stay tuned.
The Homa Files 
June 25, 2020 at 12:12 am |
Prof Homa, thank you, if you can overlay the DND graph over reported cases graph, we might get some idea of the lag and can validate the hypothesis in future. I believe there is clearly a lag in deaths from confirmed cases of around 7-8 weeks