The Homa Files

Today, let’s drill down for some perspective…
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First, as oft-reported, NY & NJ lead the list for total deaths … the 2 states represent about 30% of the US total.

The Top 10 states account for 2/3’s of the US total.

Let’s dig deeper…

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Per capita deaths

As logically to be expected, several big states have the highest death tallies … a function of their death rates and their population.

Adjusting for population:

• NY & NJ still top the list … MA & CT are the only other states with deaths per million over 1,000.
• Rhode Island, D.C. and Delaware aren’t in the top 10 with the highest death totals … but they are in the top 10 with highest per capita death totals.

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Total Cases

Much recent attention has been focused on new confirmed cases.

• 3 Sun Belt states (CA, FL, TX) top the list in confirmed cases … and, their numbers keep growing
• NY is still #4 on the list despite their restricted testing when only people with severe symptoms were being tested (and possibly confirmed … that is, asymptomatic persons didn’t qualify for testing.

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Deaths-to-cases Ratio

The ratio of deaths to confirmed cases is substantially higher in NY (8.5%) and NJ (7.4%) than it is in CA (1.8%), TX (1.6%) and FL (1.5%).

A likely explanation: Many of the cases being confirmed today are persons with no or mild symptoms who weren’t being tested (and confirmed) in NY & NJ.

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Takeaways:

• Fixating on on total deaths by state limits perspective … and obscures some important situations, e.g. the high per capita death rates in RI, DC and DE.
• The current haphazard testing scheme muddies the water … and makes it difficult to draw firm conclusions and doesn’t provide the data needed to answer many key questions (e.g. what’s the virus’ prevalence rate?).

See: Why is COVID testing still so haphazard?

This entry was posted on August 6, 2020 at 10:00 am and is filed under Coronavirus - Covid 19, COVID-19 Tracking. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.