The Homa Files

Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

May 24, 2020

Which are the ones to watch?
=============

A loyal reader asked: The “Bottom 39” DND keeps rising, are there any particular states driving that?

So, I crunched some numbers looking at the past 3 weeks of data… May 3 until today (charts below).

During that period, there were 30,288 C-19 deaths in the U.S.

The Bottom 39 accounted for 8,601 of those deaths … that’s 28% of the total.

16 states (in the Bottom 39) had more than 200 deaths between May 3 and May 24.

Those 16 states accounted for 6,086 deaths … that’s 70% of the Bottom 39 total.

Note that:

The states near the top of the list of 16 are relatively large in population
Texas and North Carolina still have relatively low per capita death rates
Rhode Island and D.C. are low on the list of 16 (but in the Top 28) and have relatively high per capita death rates
Minnesota, Arizona, Mississippi, Iowa and New Mexico have more than doubled their death count since May 3

Here’s another cut at the data…

Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | 1 Comment »

May 24: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 24, 2020

1,043 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,224
> Peaked on April 21

271 NY+NJ+CT 21% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
98,693 Worldometer
43,954 NY+NJ+CT 45% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May24: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 24, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 98,693 299 per Million
NY+NJ+CT = 43,954 45% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 78,218 79% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 508 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 116 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge

May 23: Key NATIONAL Data

May 23, 2020

1,277 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,305

327 NY+NJ+CT 26% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
97,640 Worldometer
43,683 NY+NJ+CT 45% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May 23: Key STATES Data

May 23, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 97,640 296 per Million
NY+NJ+CT = 43,683 45% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 77,488 79% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 504 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 114 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge

Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | 1 Comment »

May 22: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 22, 2020

1,445 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,350

339 NY+NJ+CT 25% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
96,363 Worldometer
43,356 NY+NJ+CT 45% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May 22: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 22, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 96,363 297 per Million
NY+NJ+CT = 43,356 45% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 76,588 80% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 498 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 111 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge

May 21: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 21, 2020

1,385 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,392

381 NY+NJ+CT 28% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
94,918 Worldometer
43,092 NY+NJ+CT 45% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

May 21: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 21, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 94,918 288 per Million
NY+NJ+CT = 43,092 45% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 75,699 80% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 492 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 109 Deaths/Million
Bottom 39: Increasing share of DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 20: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 20, 2020

1,548 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,444

334 NY+NJ+CT 22% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
93,533 Worldometer
42,711 NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

May 20: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 20, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 93,553 283 per Million
NY+NJ+CT = 42,711 46% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 74,759 80% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 486 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 107 Deaths/Million
Bottom 39: Increasing share of DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

NYU: Hydroxychloroquine cocktail cuts death rate 44%

May 19, 2020

Oh yeah, and “Irresponsible” Trump is taking it.
============

Remember hydroxychloroquine?

It’s what the MSM likes to refer to as “an anti-malarial drug that is unproven as beneficial treating Covid-19 patients.”

It had kinda fallen off the radar, but it’s back.

President Trump caused a stir yesterday when he casually mentioned that he started taking HCQ as a preventative medicine.

The gathered reporters gasped: “Irresponsible!”

Before getting judgmental, consider these underreported promising developments …

Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | 2 Comments »

May 19: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 19, 2020

1,007 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,456

278 NY+NJ+CT 32% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
91,985 Worldometer
42,377 NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

May 19: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 19, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 91,985 279 per Million
NY+NJ+CT = 42,377 46% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 73,375 80% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 479 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 104 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May-18 Key NATIONAL Data

May 18, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends, catching-up” on Mon & Tues

865 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,456

366 NY+NJ+CT 42% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
90,975Worldometer
42,099 NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

May 18: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 18, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 90,978 276 per Million
NY+NJ+CT = 42,099 47% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 72,963 80% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 474 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 102 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Data: Over half of C-19 deaths in nursing homes.

Our slant on last week’s COVID-19 news

May 17, 2020

Just in case you might have missed…
=============

Time to catch up on your HomaFiles reading:

“I was for hydroxychloroquine before I was against it”
… and other reasons that I couldn’t take the Dr. Bright seriously.

Oh my, what a disappointing Senate hearing…
Are these scientists just making things up as they go along?

COVID: How about squeezing the data and doing some old-fashioned profiling?
Hint: Go back and ask people who have been tested or hospitalized.

Survey: Some changes will endure post-coronavirus…

Gottleib: “We thought we’d be in a better place by now”
More deaths than expected … daily deaths on a plateau.

Birx: “Nothing from the CDC that I can trust”

May 17: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 17, 2020

1,606 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,439

336 NY+NJ+CT 21% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
90,113 Worldometer
41,733 NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

May 17: C-19 STATES Data

May 17, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 90,113 273 per Million
NY+NJ+CT = 41,733 46% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 72,286 80% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 470 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 101 Deaths/Million
Bottom 39 Trend 4.2% > Top 12 1.2%

State-by-State Data – Top 12

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 16: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 16, 2020

1,595 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,413

418 NY+NJ+CT 26% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
88,507 Worldometer
41,009 NY+NJ+CT 47% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

May 16: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 16, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 88,507 268 per Million
NY+NJ+CT = 41,009 47% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 71,034 80% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 462 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 99Deaths/Million
Maryland 1,911 +45

State-by-State Data – Top 12

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

“I was for hydroxychloroquine before I was against it”

May 15, 2020

… and other reasons that I couldn’t take the Dr. Bright seriously.
==============

Let, start at the beginning…

The “courageous” whistleblower walked into the hearing flanked by the same uber-partisan lawyers who represented Dr. Christine Blasey Ford in her failed attempt to torch Bret Kavanaugh.

I guess the signaling was supposed to be hash-tag “I Believe Him” but, at least for me, it signaled “Here We Go Again”

OK, that may be partisan-petty, so let’s get specific …

Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | 1 Comment »

May 15: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 15, 2020

1,740 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,426

449 NY+NJ+CT 26% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
86,912 Worldometer
40,591 NY+NJ+CT 47% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

May 15: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 15, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 86,912 263 per Million
NY+NJ+CT = 40,591 47% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 69,935 81% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 455 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 96 Deaths/Million
Maryland 1,866 +57

State-by-State Data – Top 12

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 14: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 14, 2020

1,747 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,482
> 3-day average 1,462

385 NY+NJ+CT 22% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
84,172 Worldometer
40,142 NY+NJ+CT 47% of US Total

Note: JHU reporting 84,059

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

May 14: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 14, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 85,172 258 per Million
NY+NJ+CT = 40,142 47% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 68,704 81% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 447 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 93 Deaths/Million
Maryland 1,809 +53

State-by-State Data – Top 12

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 13: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 13, 2020

Headline: Downward trend appears real.

1,630 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,593
> 3-day average 1,129

405 NY+NJ+CT 25% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
83,425 Worldometer
39,757 NY+NJ+CT 48% of US Total

Note: JHU reporting 82,339

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

May 13: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 13, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 83,425 253 per Million
NY+NJ+CT = 39,755 48% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 67,430 81% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 438 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 91 Deaths/Million
Maryland 1,756 +73

State-by-State Data – Top 12

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 12: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 12, 2020

Headline: Downward trend appears real.

1,008 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,696
> 3-day average 1,060

309 NY+NJ+CT 31% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
81,795 Worldometer
39,352 NY+NJ+CT 48% of US Total

Note: JHU reporting 80,378

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
137,184 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 2,709 on 5/10

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

May 12: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 12, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

NY+NJ+CT = 39,352 48% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 66,388 81% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 432 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 87 Deaths/Million
Maryland 1,683 +39

State-by-State Data – Top 12

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 11: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 11, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

NY+NJ+CT = 39,043 48% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 65,678 81% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 427 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 86 Deaths/Million
Maryland 1,644 +30

State-by-State Data – Top 12

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 11: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 11, 2020

Headline: Here’s hoping, but numbers look too good to be true.

750 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,741
> 3-day trend 1,286

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends with “catch-up” on Mon & Tues

222 NY+NJ+CT 30% of US Total
NY = 41 <= looks suspicious

Cumulative Deaths
80,787 Worldometer
39,043 NY+NJ+CT 48% of US Total

Note: JHU reporting 79,528

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
137,184 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 2,709 on 5/10

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

May 10: Key NATIONAL Data

May 10, 2020

1,422 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,798
> 3-day trend 1,746

376 NY+NJ+CT 26% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
80,037 Worldometer
38,821 NY+NJ+CT 49% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

=============
click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

May 10: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 10, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

NY+NJ+CT = 38,821 49% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 65,112 81% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 423 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 85 Deaths/Million
Maryland 1,614 +54

State-by-State Data – Top 12

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 9: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 9, 2020

1,697 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,834
> 3-day trend 2,113

449 NY+NJ+CT 27% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
78,615 Worldometer
38,445 NY+NJ+CT 49% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

=============
click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

May 9: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 9, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

NY+NJ+CT = 38,445 49% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 64,028 82% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 416 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 83 Deaths/Million
Maryland 1,560 +57

State-by-State Data – Top 12

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 8: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 8, 2020

2,129 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,865 Level
> 3-day trend 2,334 Up Slightly

750 NY+NJ+CT 65% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
76,928 Worldometer
37,996 NY+NJ+CT 49% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

=============
click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

May 8: Key STATES Data

May 8, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

NY+NJ+CT = 37,996 49% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 62,894 82% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 409 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 80 Deaths/Million
Maryland 1,503 +66

State-by-State Data – Top 12

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 7: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 7, 2020

2,524 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,881 trending down
> 3-day trend 2,066 DOWNWARD

1,117 NY+NJ+CT 44% of US Total
NY “found” 1,700 “presumed” cases.

Cumulative Deaths
74,799 Worldometer
37,246 NY+NJ+CT 50% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

=============
click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

May 7: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 7, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

NY+NJ+CT = 37,246 50% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 61,209 82% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 398 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 77 Deaths/Million
Maryland 1,437 +47

State-by-State Data – Top 12

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Except for timing, the new IHME forecast isn’t as shocking as it seems…

May 6, 2020

In mid-April, we pointed out the obvious: the operative projection at the time (60,000 deaths by Aug. 4) — which was modeled by IHME, touted by Pres. Trump, and head-nodded by Drs. Fauci & Birx — was arithmetically unlikely.

Our simple logic: At the time, the US had already had about 40,000 deaths and was running at a rate of about 2,000 new deaths each day. To stay under 60,000, the average daily death rate would need to drop to 200. That didn’t seem likely.

See About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths…

And, we pointed out that IHME routinely reported a wide confidence interval (aka. zone of uncertainty) that ranged up to 140,000.

The new 134.475 projection falls within that confidence level.

Add to the mix some data mumbo-jumbo: There have been some definitional and procedural changes that have boosted the reported number of deaths.

Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19, COVID-19 Tracking | Leave a Comment »

May 6: C-19 NATIONAL Data

May 6, 2020

Consecutive 5-day down streak ENDED
=============

2,350 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,875 trending down
> 3-day trend 1,858 DOWNWARD

678 NY+NJ+CT 29% of US Total
346 Pennsylvania

Cumulative Deaths
72,275 Worldometer
33,573 NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

Note: The revised forecast implies that new deaths average ~ 650 per day from now until Aug. 4. Current 7-day moving average is 1,875; 3-day moving average is 1,381.

=============
click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

May 6: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 6, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

NY+NJ+CT = 36,128 50% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
PA +346 NJ +341 IL +176 MA +122
Top 12 Total = 59,232 82% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 385 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 74 Deaths/Million
Maryland 1,390 +73

State-by-State Data – Top 12

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 5: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 5, 2020

Major upward revision of IHME forecast
=============

1,324 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> DOWN for 5 consecutive days
> 7-day trend 1,875 trending down
> 3-day trend 1,383 DOWNWARD

442 NY+NJ+CT 33% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
69,925 Worldometer
35,451 NY+NJ+CT 51% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

Note: The revised forecast implies that new deaths average ~ 650 per day from now until Aug. 4. Current 7-day moving average is 1,875; 3-day moving average is 1,381.

=============
click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | 1 Comment »

C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May 4, 2020

Tests, Confirmed Cases, Deaths
Cumulative Totals and Key Ratios
Data as of May 3, 2020
==============

Now that we seem to be heading down the backside of “the curve” and are starting to re-open the economy … I thought it would be a good time to heatmap where states stand relative to each other along the key variables: number of tests, confirmed cases and deaths … and, to “normalize” the data by adding some key ratios.

For example, here are the 10 states with the highest number of deaths per million … and the 10 with the lowest number of deaths per million:

>> Click for a PDF that displays all of the data <<

The reference guide includes sections sorted by:

State name (alphabetical)
Tests per million (population)
Confirmed cases per million (population)
Ratio: confirmed (positive) cases to the total number of tests
Total deaths to date
Deaths per million
Ratio:deaths per confirmed (positive) test

All data is sourced from Worldometer as of May 3 2020.

Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19, COVID-19 Tracking | 40 Comments »

May 4: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 4, 2020

1,154 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> DOWN for 5 consecutive days
> 7-day trend 1,884 declining slightly
Caution: Weekend reporting has tended to under-report,
catching-up on Mon & Tues

483 NY+NJ+CT 42% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
68,602 Worldometer
35,029 NY+NJ+CT 51% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
72,433 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 1,213 on 4/29

=============
click for Key STATES Data
=============
Related Posts:

May 4: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 4, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Summary

NY+NJ+CT = 35,029 51% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 56,662 83% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 368 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 68 Deaths/Million
Maryland 1,281 +30

State-by-State Data – Top 12

May 3: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 3, 2020

1,672 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> DOWN for 4 consecutive days
> 7-day trend 1,883 declining slightly

600 NY+NJ+CT 35% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
67,448 Worldometer
36,526 NY+NJ+CT 51% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
72,433 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 1,213 on 4/29

=============
click for Key STATES Data
=============
Related Posts:

Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | 1 Comment »

May 3: Key STATS Data

May 3, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Summary

GA out of Top 12; replaced by IN
NY+NJ+CT = 34,546 52% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
Top 12 Total = 55,722 83% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 363 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 66 Deaths/Million
Maryland 1,251 +52

State-by-State Data – Top 12