166,161 Deaths-to-Date
538 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,025 (peak 2.229 April 23)
48,932 New Cases
> 7-day average 54,344
=============
Details below…
Archive for the ‘COVID-19 Tracking’ Category
Aug. 11: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 11, 2020The good C-19 news that the MSM will likely ignore…
August 10, 2020Data indicates that the worst may be behind us … at least for now.
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The 7-day average for new cases has been trending down for more than two weeks, from more than 67,000 on July 22 to 47,849 on Sunday.
=============
There are 49,039 Covid-related patients currently hospitalized. Hospitalizations are trending down and are below the 60,000 peaks reached on April 21 and July 27.
=============
The 7-day average for new reported deaths has also apparently peaked., trending from 1,246 on July 31 to the current 1,036, which is less than half of the peak reached on April 23 (2,229).
==============
The arrows are pointing in the right direction!
Aug. 10: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 10, 2020165,617 Deaths-to-Date
535 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,036 (peak 2.229 April 23)
47,849 New Cases
> 7-day average 54,289
=============
Details below…
Aug. 9: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 9, 2020165,070 Deaths-to-Date
980 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,025 (peak 2.229 April 23)
54.199 New Cases
> 7-day average 54,459
=============
Details below…
Aug. 8: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 8, 2020164,076 Deaths-to-Date
1,272 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,047 (peak 2.229 April 23)
62,541 New Cases
> 7-day average 55,063
=============
Details below…
How many people are walking around infected with Covid-19?
August 7, 2020Finally, some C-19 “prevalence” estimates…
=============
Loyal readers know that I’ve been frustrated by the lack of practical, personally-relevant data that the public health “experts” have been gathering, analyzing and disseminating.
For example, I’d like to know how likely I am to bump into a person who is infected with C-19 if I leave my house.
Reasonable question, right?
In infectious disease speak, that number is called the “prevalence rate” … the percentage of people in an area who are infectious-likely at a specific point in time.
Current testing procedures don’t answer the question (see: Why is COVID testing still so haphazard?) … so, the “experts” fixate on metrics that are muddled and potentially misleading (see: Birx: “Key metric that I watch is the positivity rate”).
Finally, I’ve stumbled on some “machine learning” analyses that take a stab at answering my question: What’s the Covid prevalence rate?
OK, let’s get to work…
Aug. 7: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 7, 2020162,804 Deaths-to-Date
1,203 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,074 (peak 2.229 April 23)
58,611 New Cases
> 7-day average 56,258
=============
Details below…
C-19: State-level Cases, Deaths, Rates
August 6, 2020Today, let’s drill down for some perspective…
=============
First, as oft-reported, NY & NJ lead the list for total deaths … the 2 states represent about 30% of the US total.
The Top 10 states account for 2/3’s of the US total.
Let’s dig deeper…
Aug. 6: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 6, 2020161,601 Deaths-to-Date
1,319 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,109 (peak 2.229 April 23)
56,148 New Cases
> 7-day average 57,681
=============
Details below…
Gov. Cuomo says to follow the data, so…
August 5, 2020Let’s compare NY (and its North East neighbors) to the spiking Sun Belt states.
=============
According to Gov. Cuomo, the fawning MSM and Dr. Anthony “First Pitch” Fauci:
Gov. Cuomo did a stellar job managing the covid crisis … and, all of the Sun Belt governors (except CA’s Gov. Newsome) are reckless dufasses.
Really?
I hate to ruin a good narrative with data, but since Gov. Cuomo says to follow the numbers…
Below is a current Covid recap for 4 North East states (NY, NJ, MA, CT) … 4 Sun Belt states (TX, FL, AZ, GA) … and California.
click to enlarge chart
Here are a couple of takeaways….
Aug. 5: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 5, 2020160,215 Deaths-to-Date
1,287 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,128 (peak 2.229 April 23)
52,055 New Cases
> 7-day average 59,220
=============
Details below…
Aug. 4: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 4, 2020158,929 Deaths-to-Date
568 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,131 (peak 2.229 April 23)
48,622 New Cases
> 7-day average 61,030
=============
Details below…
Have Covid cases peaked?
August 3, 2020Let’s drill down on some numbers today…
=============
For the past 2 or 3 weeks, the number of new cases reported each day seems to have peaked … maybe plateaued, maybe turned the corner and is starting to decline.
===============
Over the same time period, the daily death rate has trended up from its previous trough … or, as the MSM media likes to say “in recent weeks, the daily death rate has catastrophically doubled from 500 per day to over 1,000 per day”.
===============
Putting those numbers into context, the daily case counts have more than doubled since the prior peak in mid-April … while daily deaths have hovered around 50% of their mid-April level.
In numbers: New cases were running at about 30,000 per day in mid-April … and there were over 2,000 new deaths each day … a ratio of deaths to cases of about 6.7%.
During the recent spike, cases have been running at about 60,000 per day … and new deaths each day have been averaging about 1,000 … a ratio of deaths to cases of about 1.7%.
That’s a 75% drop in the deaths to cases rate.
==============
Keep a watchful eye on the daily death rate …
Aug.3: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 3, 2020158,365 Deaths-to-Date
467 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,126 (peak 2.229 April 23)
49,038 New Cases
> 7-day average 62,880
=============
Details below…
Aug. 2: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 2, 2020157,898 Deaths-to-Date
1,151 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,124 (peak 2.229 April 23)
58,429 New Cases
> 7-day average 63,893
=============
Details below…
Aug.1 C-19 Data Dashboard
August 1, 2020156,747 Deaths-to-Date
1,462 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,089 (peak 2.229 April 23)
70,904 New Cases
> 7-day average 65,177
=============
Details below…
July 31: C-19 Data Dashboard
July 31, 2020155,285 Deaths-to-Date
1,465 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,051 (peak 2.229 April 23)
68,569 New Cases
> 7-day average 66,192
=============
Details below…
July 30: C-19 Data Dashboard
July 30, 2020153,840 Deaths-to-Date
1,520 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,004 (peak 2.229 April 23)
66,921 New Cases
> 7-day average 66,850
=============
Details below…
July 29: C-19 Data Dashboard
July 29, 2020152,320 Deaths-to-Date
1,245 Daily New Deaths
> 7-day average 964
64,729 New Cases
> 7-day average 66,871
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Details below…
July 28: C-19 Data Dashboard
July 28, 2020150,444 Deaths-to-Date
595 Daily New Deaths
> 7-day average 946
61,571 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 69,186
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Details below…
July 27: C-19 Data Dashboard
July 27, 2020149,849 Deaths-to-Date Worldometer
451 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 93&2
56,130 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 68,341
Data Source: Worldometer
=============
Details below…
July 26: C-19 Data Dashboard
July 26, 2020149,398 Deaths-to-Date Worldometer
906 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 932
67,413 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 68,648
Data Source: Worldometer
=============
Details below…
July 25: C-19 Data Dashboard
July 25, 2020149,490 Deaths-to-Date Worldometer
1,193 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 914
78,009 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 68,054
Data Source: Worldometer
=============
Details below…
Birx: “Key metric that I watch is the positivity rate”
July 24, 2020In yesterday’s post, I indicted that I was very disappointed with Dr. Brix’s answers in a TV interview with Bret Baer.
One particular question & answer still has me scratching my head:
What is the key statistic that you track?
Birx’s answer: Test positivity (i.e. ratio of positive test results to total tests). It’s the most sensitive indicator and best early warning.
With all due respect, I think that Dr. Birx is confusing “positivity” with “prevalence”.
I’m way more interested in the latter prevalence: the percentage of the population that is currently infected with the virus.
Prevalence indicates how widespread the virus is at any point in time in a selected locale.
That gives me a sense of how safe it is to leave my house: How many people am I likely to run into who have the virus and may be contagious.
=============
Determining prevalence requires periodic random sampling of the population.
That’s not what’s being done now.
A representative sample of the local populations is not being tested.
Why is that a problem?
The positivity rate (Birx’s key metric) is a function of who shows up to be tested.
If only people with covid-like symptoms are being tested, then of course, the positivity rate will be high.
If there’s a groundswell of asymptomatic people, the positivity rate will likely be relatively low.
My hunch: The testing “sample” is skewed to people with symptoms.
In a prior post, we reported that “Asymptomatics” are not rushing to get tested and provided some subjective reasons why that might be (e.g. no doctor referral, high hassle factor, privacy concerns).
So, positivity is, at best, a very crude measure of prevalence.
=============
To that point, keep in mind…
July 24: C-19 Data Dashboard
July 24, 2020147,297 Deaths-to-Date Worldometer
1,114 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 882
68,278 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 67,623
Data Source: Worldometer
=============
Details below…
July 23: C-19 Data Dashboard
July 23, 2020146,183 Deaths-to-Date Worldometer
1,239 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 860
71,907 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 68,353
Data Source: Worldometer
=============
Details below…
July 22: C-10 Data Dashboard
July 22, 2020144,944 Deaths-to-Date Worldometer
1,113 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 829
66,933 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 68,322
Data Source: Worldometer
=============
Details below… (more…)
The Sun Belt states vs. New York and its neighbors…
July 21, 2020We’ve been emphasizing that while the number of confirmed cases has more than doubled since mid-April, daily reported new deaths have arguably stabilized at about half of their mid-April level.
Today, let’s get a bit more granular and drill down to the states’ level… where the data is VERY interesting.
July 21: C-19 Data Dashboard
July 21, 2020143,825 Deaths-to-Date Worldometer
538 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 797
62,656 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 68,130
Data Source: Worldometer
=============
For details, keep reading… (more…)
July 20: C-19 Data Dashboard
July 20, 2020 
Data Source: Worldometer
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Cumulative Deaths
143,289 Worldometer
===============
412 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 786
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 57,000 July 17
> 7-day average 57,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 65,279 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 68,535
> Highest day 73,388 July 16
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
July 19: C-19 DATA DASHBOARD
July 19, 2020 
Data Source: Worldometer
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Cumulative Deaths
142,877 Worldometer
===============
783 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 782
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 58,000 July 17
> 7-day average 55,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 63,259 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 67,345
> Highest day 73,388 July 16
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
Where’s the case-related spike in deaths?
July 18, 2020No question, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases has skyrocketed since mid-June.
During the same time period, daily new deaths reported have leveled off … typically ranging between 500 and 1,000.
The chart below displays the 7-day moving average of daily reported new cases and deaths … indexed to their levels in mid-April when daily new deaths previously peaked (2,824 on April 21) and daily new cases were running about 30,000.
![image_thumb[18]](https://kenhoma.files.wordpress.com/2020/07/image_thumb18.png "image_thumb[18]")
Data Source: Worldometer
My take:
Even factoring a lag time between case diagnoses and deaths, it doesn’t appear that the higher case counts are driving a commensurate spike in deaths.
July 18: C-18 DATA DASHBOARD
July 18, 2020Cumulative Deaths
142,054 Worldometer
===============
939 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 758
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 57,000 July 16
> 7-day average 54,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 74,987 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 67,325
> Highest day 73,388 July 16
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
July 17: C-19 DATA DASHBOARD
July 17, 2020Cumulative Deaths
141,125 Worldometer
===============
965 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 758
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 57,000 Current
> 7-day average 54,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 73,388 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 66,868
> Highest day 73,388 July 16
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
July 16: C-19 DATA DASHBOARD
July 16, 2020Cumulative Deaths
140,160 Worldometer
===============
1,017 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 757
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 56,000 Current
> 7-day average 52,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 71,750 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 63,693
> Highest day 71,750 July 15
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
NYT editor resigns … and makes the obvious evident.
July 15, 2020“The paper of record is, more and more, the record of those living in a distant galaxy”
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Bari Weiss, a high-profile editor and writer for the New York Times opinion section, resigned Monday, citing what she said was unchecked bullying from colleagues and depicting the news organization as a place where the free exchange of ideas was no longer welcome. Source
Ms. Weiss bills herself as a non-ideological centrist. A position that seems to be borne out in media reactions to her resignation.
Liberal media sentiment: “Good riddance”; Conservative media: “Nice try, Dani”.
What’s noteworthy is the scathing resignation letter that Ms. Weiss wrote and published online.
Here are some snippets….
July 15: C-19 DATA DASHBOARD
July 15, 2020Cumulative Deaths
139,143 Worldometer
===============
895 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 739
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 54,000 Current
> 7-day average 48,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 65,594 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 63,693
> Highest day 68,000 July 10
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
More re: Super-spreader events, venues and activities.
July 14, 2020Avoid them to improve your odds of staying COVID-free (and alive)
=============
A consensus seems to be emerging among researchers that the bulk of coronavirus infections happen in “clusters” and can be traced to a small number of “super-spreading” people, events, venues and activities.
The obvious conclusion: avoid them to minimize the chance that you get infected.
In a prior post we explained why super-spreader people are so difficult to identify … and offered 2 principles: (1) Consider everybody that you run into as being a GUPI (Guilty Until Proven Innocent), and (2) avoid high risk activities and places where GUPIs hang out.
Let’s get practical on those principles…
July 14: C-19 DATA DASHBOARD
July 14, 2020Cumulative Deaths
138,753 Worldometer
===============
460 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 753
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 54,000 Current
> 7-day average 48,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 65,488 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 62,243
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
DANGER: “Super-spreading” people, events, venues and activities.
July 13, 2020Avoid them to improve your odds of staying COVID-free (and alive)
=============
A consensus seems to be emerging among researchers that the bulk of coronavirus infections happen in “clusters” and can be traced to a small number of “super-spreading” people, events, venues and activities.
The obvious conclusion: Avoid them to minimize the chance that you get infected.
Today, let’s drill down on the people who may be super-spreaders…
July 13: C-19 DATA DASHBOARD
July 13, 2020Cumulative Deaths
137,746 Worldometer
===============
382 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 746
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 53,000 Current
> 7-day average 46,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 58,349 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 60,114
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
July 12: C-19 DATA DASHBOARD
July 12, 2020Cumulative Deaths
137,405 Worldometer
===============
734 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 727
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 52,000 Current
> 7-day average 44,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 61719 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 57,960
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
July 11: C-19 DATA DASHBOARD
July 11, 2020Cumulative Deaths
136,671 Worldometer
===============
849 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 653
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 52,000 Current
> 7-day average 42,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 71787 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 55,597
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
July 10: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data
July 10, 2020Cumulative Deaths
135,822 Worldometer
===============
960 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 621
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 44,000 Current
> 7-day average 40,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 61,067 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 53,186
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
July 9: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data
July 9, 2020Cumulative Deaths
134,862 Worldometer
===============
892 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 582
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 43,000 Current
> 7-day average 40,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 64,848 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 82,896
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
Finally, a Covid testing plan that makes sense to me…
July 8, 2020Tip of the hat to Georgetown on this one.
=============
Last week, I did some reading re: the Herculean challenges facing colleges as they contemplate when and how to re-open.
In a nutshell, residence colleges face three major challenges:
- Staying afloat financially
- Delivering a valuable education
- Keeping their campuses healthy
One aspect of healthy campuses is instituting a comprehensive Covid testing program.
Many schools are rationalizing away the need for testing, arguing that tests aren’t sufficiently accurate and that they cost too much to administer. Source
That’s not the approach that Georgetown is taking…
July 8: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data
July 8, 2020Expanded Data Set:
Cases > Hospitalizations > Deaths
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Cumulative Deaths
133,972 Worldometer
===============
663 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 552
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 41,575 Current
> 7-day average 38,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 55,442 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 50,156
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
July 7: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data
July 7, 2020414 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 517
States reporting more than 25 New Deaths:
CA 76, TX 63, FL 46
===============
Cumulative Deaths
132,979 Worldometer
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 50,586 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 48,172
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
July 6: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data
July 6, 2020263 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 591
States reporting more than 20 New Deaths:
NY 33, FL 29, TX 27, NJ 22
===============
Cumulative Deaths
132,571 Worldometer
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 44.530 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 46,675
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
July 4: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data
July 4, 2020688 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 643
============
Cumulative Deaths
132,101 Worldometer
Confirmed Cases
> 54,904 New Cases
> 7-day average 46,409
