COVID-19 Tracking | The Homa Files

Archive for the ‘COVID-19 Tracking’ Category

July 4: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

July 4, 2020

688 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 643

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Cumulative Deaths
132,101 Worldometer

Confirmed Cases

> 54,904 New Cases
> 7-day average 46,409

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July 3: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

July 3, 2020

> 56,939 New Cases
> 7-day average 44,276

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688 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 643

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Cumulative Deaths
131,477 Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
175,168 by Oct 1 DOWN 3,938 on June 29

=============

Key States Data

> 10 states reporting 22 or more new deaths

> Note high per capita DNDs in MA, LA & AZ

click to enlarge table

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July 2: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

July 2, 2020

> 44,766 New Cases
> 7-day average 41118

WSJ

Confirmed cases have spiked upwards, mostly in Southern & Western states. The majority of the uptick is in the under 45 age group. Some of the under 45s require hospitalization, but relatively few die (compared to the elderly death rate).

For details, see: Remember when the med-science community told young adults that the virus wouldn’t hurt them?

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680 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 628

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Cumulative Deaths
130,789 Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
175,168 by Oct 1 DOWN 3,938 on June 29

=============

Key States Data

> 10 states reporting 23 or more new deaths

> Note high per capita DNDs in AZ and SC

click to enlarge table

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July 1: Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

July 1, 2020

> 41,556 New Cases
> 7-day average 39,750

WSJ

For details, see: Remember when the med-science community told young adults that the virus wouldn’t hurt them?

==============

751 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 646
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths
130,109 Worldometer
190,187 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
175,168 by Oct 1 DOWN 3,938 on June 29

=============

Key States Data

> 10 states reporting 23 or more new deaths

> Note high per capita DNDs in NJ, AZ and LA

click to enlarge table

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June 30: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 30, 2020

> 38,845 New Cases
> 7-day average 38,192

WSJ

For details, see: Remember when the med-science community told young adults that the virus wouldn’t hurt them?

==============

351 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 581
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths
128,788 Worldometer
183,407 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
175,168 by Oct 1 DOWN 3,938 on June 29

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Key States Data

> 9 states reporting more than 10 new deaths

> Note high per capita DNDs in RI, MS and MA

click to enlarge table

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June 29: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 29, 2020

299 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 583
> Peaked on April 21

============

Cumulative Deaths
128,437 Worldometer
183,808 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
179,106 by Oct 1 UP 22,023 on June 25

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table

None of the Bottom 39 states reported 25 or more New Deaths

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June 28: Key NATIONAL Data

June 28, 2020

Confirmed cases have spiked upwards, partially due to increased testing of asymptomatics. Most of the uptick is in the under 45 age group. Some of the under 45s require hospitalization, but relatively few die (compared to the elderly death rate).

WSJ

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498 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 578
> Peaked on April 21

==============

Cumulative Deaths
128,138 Worldometer includes upward reporting adjustment

Projection: 183,599 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
179,106 by Oct 1 UP 22,023 on June 25

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June 27: Key NATIONAL Data

June 27, 2020

IMPORTANT: Data reporting criteria have changed! Details below…
==============

WSJ

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663 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 591
> Peaked on April 21

WSJ See: Changes in Reporting

IMPORTANT NOTE: The June 25 spike in Daily New Deaths is attributable to changes in the criteria that some states are using to count Covid deaths. The June 25 number includes 2.111 in cumulative adjustment based on the revised criteria.

Below is our usual chart … that neutralizes the new reporting

==============

Cumulative Deaths
127,640 Worldometer includes upward reporting adjustment

Projection: 184,967 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
179,106 by Oct 1 UP 22,023 on June 25

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June 26: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 26, 2020

585 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 597
> Peaked on April 21

============

Cumulative Deaths
124,866 Worldometer
183,358 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
179,106 by Oct 1 UP 22,023 on June 25

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
GA (47) TX (41) AZ (27)

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June 25: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 25, 2020

805 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 620
> Peaked on April 21

============

Cumulative Deaths
124,281 Worldometer
185,661 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
AZ (79) TX (42) AL (27)

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June 24: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 24, 2020

866 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 621
> Peaked on April 21

============

Cumulative Deaths
123,476 Worldometer
185,533 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
Delaware (68) AZ (42) GA (46) TX(33)

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June 20: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 20, 2020

704 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 653
> Peaked on April 21

============

Cumulative Deaths
121,392 Worldometer
189,987 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
AZ (41) GA (31) TX (27) IN (25)

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June 19: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 19, 2020

747 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 666
> Peaked on April 21

============

Cumulative Deaths
120,688 Worldometer
193,231 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
NC (54) TX (37) AZ (32) GA (30)

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June 18: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 18, 2020

829 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 687
> Peaked on April 21

============

Cumulative Deaths
119,941 Worldometer
193,481 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
GA (46) TX (43) IN (28)

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June 17: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 17, 2020

849 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 711
> Peaked on April 21

============

Cumulative Deaths
119,132 Worldometer
195,935 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15
759 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
TX (46) GA (35) NC (29) AZ (25)

Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | 1 Comment »

June 16: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 16, 2020

430 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 746
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths
118,283 Worldometer
199,597 by Oct 1ug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15
760 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table

39 states with 25 or more New Deaths: GA (43)

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June 15: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 15, 2020

327 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 879
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths
117,863 Worldometer
208,320 by Oct 1ug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
169,890 by Oct 1 <= NEW END DATE
472 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table

No Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths

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June 14: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 14, 2020

707 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 879
> Peaked on April 21

============

Cumulative Deaths
117,526 Worldometer
215,079 by Oct 1ug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
169,890 by Oct 1 <= NEW END DATE
472 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

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Key States Data
FL moved up from #11 to #10 in total deaths

click to enlarge table

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
AZ (39) GA (28)

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June 13: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 13, 2020

Note: IHME has extended its forecast period from Aug 3 to Oct 1. Details below,

790 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 949
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths
116,819 Worldometer
223,155 by Oct 1ug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
169,890 by Oct 1 <= NEW END DATE
474 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

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Key States Data
IL moved up to #4 in total deaths

click to enlarge table

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
GA (47), TN (27), MN (25)

click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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June 12: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 12, 2020

Note: IHME has extended its forecast period from Aug 3 to Oct 1. Details below,

899 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 984
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths
116,028 Worldometer
227,205 by Oct 1ug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
169,890 by Oct 1 <= NEW END DATE
476 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
GA (46), AZ (32), OH (25), TX (25), in (25)

click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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June 11: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 11, 2020

976 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,010
> Peaked on April 21

============

Cumulative Deaths
115,130 Worldometer
171,598 by Aug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
140,496 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 5,387 6/6
417 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
GA (44), MN (39), TX (28), AZ (25)

click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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Update: 2/3s of C-19 deaths have been 65 and over…

June 10, 2020

Not exactly new news, but for the record …

About 1 in 4 C-19 deaths have been folks over 85.
About 2 in 3 have been over 65
Practically no deaths for those under 35.

Source: WSJ, CDC

Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19, COVID-19 Tracking | Leave a Comment »

June 10: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 10, 2020

Caution: 6 states (none in top 12) didn’t report any deaths
… either no new deaths to report or report just wasn’t submitted

1,093 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,033
> Peaked on April 21

============

Cumulative Deaths
114,154 Worldometer
173,019 by Aug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
140,496 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 5,387 6/6
462 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table

Bottom 39 states with more than 25 New Deaths:
GA (77), TX (27), NC (27)

click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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June 9: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 9, 2020

Caution: 16 states (none in top 12) didn’t report any deaths
… either no new deaths to report or report just wasn’t submitted

965 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 984
> Peaked on April 21

============

Cumulative Deaths
113,061 Worldometer
169,951 by Aug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
140,496 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 5,387 6/6
473 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table

Bottom 39 states with more than 20 New Deaths:
GA (27), RI (26), AL (23)

click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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June 8: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATE Data

June 8, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends;
several states (none in top 12) didn’t report on Sunday.

375 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 897
> Peaked on April 21

REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

============

Cumulative Deaths
112,471 Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
140,496 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 5,387 6/6
481 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table

click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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June 7: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 7, 2020

727 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 938
> Peaked on April 21

REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

============

Cumulative Deaths
112,101 Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
140,496 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 5,387 6/6
481 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table

click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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June 6: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 6, 2020

1,201 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 976
> Peaked on April 21

REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

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Cumulative Deaths
111,374 Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
135,109 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 3,142 6/2
396 = Req’d Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

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Key States Data
Michigan DNDs spike; MI moves ahead of IL

click to enlarge table

click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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June 5: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 5, 2020

1,031 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 977 1st time < 1,000
> Peaked on April 21

REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

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Cumulative Deaths
110,173 Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
135,109 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 3,142 6/2
368 = Req’d Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table

click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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June 4: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 4, 2020

1,083 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,005
> Peaked on April 21

REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

============

Cumulative Deaths
109,142 Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
135,109 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 3,142 6/2
368 = Req’d Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,005 = Current 7-day moving average
171,452 = Aug 4 total @ current run rate

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table

click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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UPDATE: Almost half of C-19 deaths in nursing homes.

June 3, 2020

It’s now crystal clear that one of the great fails of the C-19 response was not recognizing that nursing homes would be underprepared hot spots … and, rather than taking all-out action to contain the carnage, some states directed Covid patients back to nursing homes, inflaming the outbreak.

How bad has the carnage been?

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) issued a survey this week reporting 25,923 nursing home death tied to Covid-19 and a death rate of 2.7% (the ratio of deaths to the number of nursing home residents).

But, …

CMS only surveyed federally regulated nursing homes … slightly more than 1/2 of the total number of nursing homes in the US
Only 80% of the surveyed nursing homes replied to the survey
The survey only asked for death after May 6 (huh?)
Other LTC (long-term-care) facilities — e.g. assisted living, veterans homes — were not surveyed.
Only That’s about 25% of all Covid-related deaths — a big number that comes with a couple of big “buts” — it didn’t cover long-term-care (LTC) facilities except for nursing homes, only 80% of nursing homes replied to the CMS survey … and the survey only asked about deaths after May 6 (huh?).

Bottom line: Bottom line: The CMS survey way understates the number of LTC deaths..

Red shading indicates nursing home hot spots

USA total pegs the number of deaths at 40,600.

A WSJ tally of state data totals more than 42,000 Covid-19-associated deaths in long-term-care facilities.

And, the WSJ says that its count “likely undercounts the full impact of the outbreak because of reporting lags and incomplete information from some states”.

How much is the undercount?

(more…)

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June 3: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

June 3, 2020

1,134 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,062
> Peaked on April 21

REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths
108,059 Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
380 = Req’d Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,062 = Current 7-day moving average
174,965 = Aug 4 total @ current run rate

=============
click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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June 3: C-19 Key STATES Data

June 3, 2020

Total US Deaths = 108,059 327 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 46,221 43% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 84,281 78% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 516 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 139 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge

C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

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June 2: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

June 2, 2020

Apparently due to weekend turmoil, many states did not report weekend COVID data.

730 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,017
> Peaked on April 21

111 NY+NJ+CT 15% of US Total

REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths
106,925 Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
391 = Req’d Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,014 = Current 7-day moving average
172,022 = Aug 4 total @ current run rate

=============
click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | Leave a Comment »

June 1: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

June 1, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends, “catching-up” on Mon & Tues

Apparently due to weekend turmoil, many states did not report weekend COVID data.

638 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,073
> Peaked on April 21

195 NY+NJ+CT 30% of US Total

REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths
106,195 Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
396 = Req’d Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,078 = Current 7-day moving average
175,949 = Aug 4 total @ current run rate

=============
click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | Leave a Comment »

May 31: Key NATIONAL Data

May 31, 2020

1,015 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,131
> Peaked on April 21

223 NY+NJ+CT 22% of US Total

REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths
105,557 Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
400 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,131 = Current 7-day moving average
180,203 = Aug 4 total @ current run rate

=============
click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | Leave a Comment »

May 30: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 30, 2020

1,208 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,168
> Peaked on April 21

320 NY+NJ+CT 21% of US Total

REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths
104,542 Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
403 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,168 = Current 7-day moving average
183,966 = Implied Aug 4 total @ current run rate

=============
click to see C-19 Key STATES Data, C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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May 30: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 30, 2020

Total US Deaths = 104,542 317 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 45,424 44% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 81,961 78% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 516 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 132 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

=============
State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge

C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

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May 29: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 29, 2020

1,227 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,202
> Peaked on April 21

255 NY+NJ+CT 21% of US Total

REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths
103,334 Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
414 = Implied Daily New Deaths average until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,227 = Current 7-day moving average
188,000 = Implied Aug 4 total @ current run rate

=============
click to see C-19 Key STATES Data, C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | Leave a Comment »

May 29: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 29, 2020

Total US Deaths = 103,334 313 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 45,104 44% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 81,200 79% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 511 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 129 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

=============
State-by-State Data – Top 12
PA up to #4 surpassing MICH

click chart to enlarge

C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | Leave a Comment »

I tested negative, so I’m not infected, right?

May 28, 2020

Yesterday, we reached into our toolkit and pulled out behavioral economics and Bayesian Inference.

Our big conclusion in that post was that if C-19 tests are 90% accurate and 5% of the people in our reference group are walking around infected, then roughly 2/3’s of all people who get positive test results are not infected … they’re so-called false positives.

See our prior post If I test positive for COVID, am I infected? for an explanation of the method and a walk-thru of the analysis leading to that conclusion.

Now, let’s change one of our assumptions.

In the prior post, we assumed that we were asymptomatic, have been sheltering-in-place (i.e. minimal social contacts outside of our homes) and don’t work in a COVID-prevalent environment … and we used 5% as our base rate (of virus prevalence among our reference group).

Now, let’s assume that the reference group we’re working with is elderly, has a comorbid medical history of respiratory and heart problems and is experiencing COVID-like symptoms (high fever, persistent cough), have had contact with an infected person. That’s essentially the only group that initially qualified for coronavirus testing. Lets, assume that 75% of the people in that reference group are, in fact, infected with the virus.

Here’s the Bayesian results chart would look like:

The question: what is the likelihood that the people who fit this profile are correctly diagnosed as having the virus (or not)?

(more…)

Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19, Covid-19 Testing, COVID-19 Tracking | Leave a Comment »

May 28: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 28, 2020

Media reports Memorial Day spikes in cases … stay focused on Daily New Deaths. This post explains why…

MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

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1,482 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,225
> Peaked on April 21

349 NY+NJ+CT 24% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
102,107 Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
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click to see C-19 Key STATES Data, C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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May 28: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 28, 2020

Total US Deaths = 102,107 3309 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 44,500 44% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 80,429 79% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 523 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 123 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge

C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

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May 27: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 27, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends, “catching-up” on Mon & Tues

Media reports Memorial Day spikes in cases … stay focused on Daily New Deaths. This post explains why…

MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

=============

820 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,234
> Peaked on April 21

226 NY+NJ+CT 28% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
100,625 Worldometer

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May 27: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 27, 2020

Total US Deaths = 100,625 305 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 44,500 44% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 79,430 79% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 516 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 120 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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State-by-State Data – Top 12
Ohio replaced Indiana in the Top 12 on May 25

click chart to enlarge

C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

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MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 26, 2020

Stay focused on the number of Daily New Deaths!
==============

Cutting to the chase, I’ve concluded that the most reliable number being reported is the number of COVID-19 related “Daily New Deaths”.

According to Worldometers – the best data aggregation site that I’ve found so far – there have been almost 100,000 COVID-19 related deaths in the U.S. so far.

Keep in mind that “COVID-related” means “COVID present”, not necessarily “COVID caused” … and that, along the way, “present” was redefined from “confirmed” to “presumed”

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From an analytical perspective, the chart of total deaths will, by definition, never crest and turn down. It’s rate of growth will eventually slow down, though, but that’s hard to read that from a chart.

So, I think it’s more useful to look at “Daily New Deaths” …. if that number keeps going up then, by definition, we haven’t turned the corner.

When Daily New Deaths start trending down then, by definition, we have turned the corner.

Here’s our charting of what Worldometers has reported since the first coronavirus cases were identified.

The dotted line is the 7-day moving average which smooths some of the day-to-day “noise” in the data.

Based on the 7-day moving average, it appears that the rate of growth of COVID-19 deaths trended downward since about April 21.

Bottom line: If you want to know if we’re starting to turn the corner, keep your eye on the number of COVID-19 related “Daily New Deaths”.

Choose the level of aggregation based on your specific interest … world, nation or state.

Note: I’ll be focusing on the U.S. national number … and the national number less the 3 state hot spots: NY, NJ, CT

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More specifically, why “Daily New Deaths”?

(more…)

Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19, Covid-19 Testing, COVID-19 Tracking, Uncategorized | Leave a Comment »

May 26: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 26, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends, “catching-up” on Mon & Tues

Media reports Memorial Day spikes in cases … stay focused on Daily New Deaths. This post explains why…

MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

=============

1,112 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,261
> Peaked on April 21

193 NY+NJ+CT 31% of US Total

Cumulative Deaths
99,805 Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18
=============
click to see C-19 Key STATES Data, C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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May 26: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 26, 2020

STATE DEATHS Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 99,805 302 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 44,274 44% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 78,972 79% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 513 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 118 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

=============
State-by-State Data – Top 12
Ohio replaces Indiana in the Top 12

click chart to enlarge

C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | Leave a Comment »

Our slant on last week’s COVID news…

May 25, 2020

Here are links … just in case you missed any posts
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Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39
Which are the ones to watch?

UPDATE: Here we go again … “Science” takes still another u-turn.
It’s a bigger deal than whether we need to wipe down our counters and packages.

Shocker: “Asymptomatics” not rushing to get tested.

Would I take HCQ like Trump is doing?

NYU: Hydroxychloroquine cocktail cuts death rate 44%

COVID’s Impact: Geographically concentrated in only 30 US counties…
Great analysis from the researchers at the Heritage Foundation

Our slant on the prior week’s COVID-19 news … week of May 10

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May 25: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 25, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends, catching-up” on Mon & Tues

613 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,199
> Peaked on April 21

193 NY+NJ+CT 31% of US Total

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths
98,693 Worldometer
44,063 NY+NJ+CT 44% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | Leave a Comment »

Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

May 24, 2020

Which are the ones to watch?
=============

A loyal reader asked: The “Bottom 39” DND keeps rising, are there any particular states driving that?

So, I crunched some numbers looking at the past 3 weeks of data… May 3 until today (charts below).

During that period, there were 30,288 C-19 deaths in the U.S.

The Bottom 39 accounted for 8,601 of those deaths … that’s 28% of the total.

16 states (in the Bottom 39) had more than 200 deaths between May 3 and May 24.

Those 16 states accounted for 6,086 deaths … that’s 70% of the Bottom 39 total.

Note that:

The states near the top of the list of 16 are relatively large in population
Texas and North Carolina still have relatively low per capita death rates
Rhode Island and D.C. are low on the list of 16 (but in the Top 28) and have relatively high per capita death rates
Minnesota, Arizona, Mississippi, Iowa and New Mexico have more than doubled their death count since May 3

Here’s another cut at the data…

(more…)

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