Archive for the ‘COVID-19 Tracking’ Category

Aug. 11: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 11, 2020

166,161  Deaths-to-Date

538 Daily New Deaths     (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,025    (peak 2.229 April 23)

48,932  New Cases
> 7-day average    54,344

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Details below…

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The good C-19 news that the MSM will likely ignore…

August 10, 2020

Data indicates that the worst may be behind us … at least for now.
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The 7-day average for new cases has been trending down for more than two weeks, from more than 67,000 on July 22 to 47,849 on Sunday.

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There are 49,039 Covid-related patients currently hospitalized.  Hospitalizations are trending down and are below the 60,000 peaks reached on April 21 and July 27.

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The 7-day average for new reported deaths has also apparently peaked., trending from 1,246 on July 31 to the current 1,036, which is less than half of the peak reached on April 23 (2,229).

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The arrows are pointing in the right direction!

Aug. 10: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 10, 2020

165,617  Deaths-to-Date

535 Daily New Deaths     (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,036    (peak 2.229 April 23)

47,849  New Cases
> 7-day average    54,289

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Details below…

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Aug. 9: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 9, 2020

165,070  Deaths-to-Date

980 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,025    (peak 2.229 April 23)

54.199  New Cases
> 7-day average    54,459

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Details below…

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Aug. 8: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 8, 2020

164,076  Deaths-to-Date

1,272 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,047    (peak 2.229 April 23)

62,541  New Cases
> 7-day average    55,063

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Details below…

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How many people are walking around infected with Covid-19?

August 7, 2020

Finally, some C-19 “prevalence” estimates…
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Loyal readers know that I’ve been frustrated by the lack of practical, personally-relevant data that the public health “experts” have been gathering, analyzing and disseminating.

For example, I’d like to know how likely I am to bump into a person who is infected with C-19 if I leave my house.

Reasonable question, right?

In infectious disease speak, that number is called the “prevalence rate” … the percentage of people in an area who are infectious-likely at a specific point in time.

Current testing procedures don’t answer the question (see: Why is COVID testing still so haphazard?) … so, the “experts” fixate on metrics that are muddled and potentially misleading (see: Birx: “Key metric that I watch is the positivity rate”).

Finally, I’ve stumbled on some “machine learning” analyses that take a stab at answering my question: What’s the Covid prevalence rate?

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OK, let’s get to work…

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Aug. 7: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 7, 2020

162,804  Deaths-to-Date

1,203 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,074    (peak 2.229 April 23)

58,611  New Cases
> 7-day average    56,258

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Details below…

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C-19: State-level Cases, Deaths, Rates

August 6, 2020

Today, let’s drill down for some perspective…
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First, as oft-reported, NY & NJ lead the list for total deaths … the 2 states represent about 30% of the US total.

The Top 10 states account for 2/3’s of the US total.

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Let’s dig deeper…

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Aug. 6: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 6, 2020

161,601  Deaths-to-Date

1,319 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,109    (peak 2.229 April 23)

56,148  New Cases
> 7-day average    57,681

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Details below…

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Gov. Cuomo says to follow the data, so…

August 5, 2020

Let’s compare NY (and its North East neighbors) to the spiking  Sun Belt states. 
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According to Gov. Cuomo, the fawning  MSM and  Dr. Anthony “First Pitch” Fauci:

Gov. Cuomo did a stellar job managing the covid crisis … and, all of the Sun Belt governors (except CA’s Gov. Newsome) are reckless dufasses.

Really?

I hate to ruin a good narrative with data, but since Gov. Cuomo says to follow the numbers…

Below is a current Covid recap for 4 North East states (NY, NJ, MA, CT) … 4 Sun Belt states (TX, FL, AZ, GA) … and California.

click to enlarge chart
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Here are a couple of takeaways….

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Aug. 5: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 5, 2020

160,215  Deaths-to-Date

1,287 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,128    (peak 2.229 April 23)

52,055  New Cases
> 7-day average    59,220

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Details below…

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Aug. 4: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 4, 2020

158,929  Deaths-to-Date

568 Daily New Deaths    (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,131   (peak 2.229 April 23)

48,622  New Cases
> 7-day average    61,030

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Details below…

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Have Covid cases peaked?

August 3, 2020

Let’s drill down on some numbers today…
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For the past 2 or 3 weeks, the number of new cases reported each day seems to have peaked … maybe plateaued, maybe turned the corner and is starting to decline.

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Over the same time period, the daily death rate has trended up from its previous trough … or, as the MSM media likes to say “in recent weeks, the daily death rate has catastrophically doubled from 500 per day to over 1,000 per day”.

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Putting those numbers into context, the daily case counts have more than doubled since the prior peak in mid-April … while daily deaths have hovered around 50% of their mid-April level.

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In numbers: New cases were running at about 30,000 per day in mid-April … and there were over 2,000 new deaths each day … a ratio of deaths to cases of about 6.7%.

During the recent spike, cases have been running at about 60,000 per day … and  new deaths each day have been averaging about 1,000  … a ratio of deaths to cases of about 1.7%.

That’s a 75% drop in the deaths to cases rate.

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Keep a watchful eye on the daily death rate …

Aug.3: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 3, 2020

158,365  Deaths-to-Date

467 Daily New Deaths    (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,126   (peak 2.229 April 23)

49,038  New Cases
> 7-day average    62,880

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Details below…

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Aug. 2: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 2, 2020

157,898  Deaths-to-Date

1,151 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,124   (peak 2.229 April 23)

58,429  New Cases
> 7-day average    63,893

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Details below…

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Aug.1 C-19 Data Dashboard

August 1, 2020

156,747  Deaths-to-Date

1,462 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,089  (peak 2.229 April 23)

70,904  New Cases
> 7-day average    65,177

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Details below…

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July 31: C-19 Data Dashboard

July 31, 2020

155,285  Deaths-to-Date

1,465 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,051  (peak 2.229 April 23)

68,569  New Cases
> 7-day average    66,192

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Details below…

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July 30: C-19 Data Dashboard

July 30, 2020

153,840  Deaths-to-Date

1,520 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,004  (peak 2.229 April 23)

66,921  New Cases
> 7-day average    66,850

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Details below…

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July 29: C-19 Data Dashboard

July 29, 2020

152,320  Deaths-to-Date

1,245 Daily New Deaths
> 7-day average 964

64,729  New Cases
> 7-day average    66,871

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Details below…

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July 28: C-19 Data Dashboard

July 28, 2020

150,444  Deaths-to-Date

595 Daily New Deaths
> 7-day average 946

61,571  New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    69,186

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Details below…

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July 27: C-19 Data Dashboard

July 27, 2020

149,849  Deaths-to-Date Worldometer

451 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 93&2

56,130 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    68,341

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Data Source: Worldometer 
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Details below…

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July 26: C-19 Data Dashboard

July 26, 2020

149,398  Deaths-to-Date Worldometer

906 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 932

67,413 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    68,648

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Data Source: Worldometer 
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Details below…

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July 25: C-19 Data Dashboard

July 25, 2020

149,490  Deaths-to-Date Worldometer

1,193 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 914

78,009 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    68,054

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Data Source: Worldometer 
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Details below…

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Birx: “Key metric that I watch is the positivity rate”

July 24, 2020

In yesterday’s post, I indicted that I was very disappointed with Dr. Brix’s answers  in a TV interview with Bret Baer.

One particular question & answer still has me scratching my head:

What is the key statistic that you track?

Birx’s answer: Test positivity (i.e. ratio of positive test results to total tests). It’s the most sensitive indicator and best early warning.

With all due respect, I think that Dr. Birx is confusing “positivity” with “prevalence”.

I’m way more interested in the latter prevalence: the percentage of the population that is currently infected with the virus.

Prevalence indicates how widespread the virus is at any point in time in a selected locale.

That gives me a sense of how safe it is to leave my house: How many people am I likely to run into who have the virus and may be contagious.

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Determining prevalence requires periodic random sampling of the population.

That’s not what’s being done now.

A representative sample of the local populations is not being tested.

Why is that a problem?

The positivity rate (Birx’s key metric) is a function of who shows up to be tested.

If only people with covid-like symptoms are being tested, then of course, the positivity rate will be high.

If there’s a groundswell of asymptomatic people, the positivity rate will likely be relatively low.

My hunch: The testing “sample” is skewed to people with symptoms.

In a prior post, we reported that “Asymptomatics” are not rushing to get tested and provided some subjective reasons why that might be (e.g. no doctor referral, high hassle factor, privacy concerns).

So, positivity is, at best, a very crude measure of prevalence.

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To that point, keep in mind…

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July 24: C-19 Data Dashboard

July 24, 2020

147,297  Deaths-to-Date Worldometer

1,114 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 882

68,278 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    67,623

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Data Source: Worldometer 
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Details below…

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July 23: C-19 Data Dashboard

July 23, 2020

146,183  Deaths-to-Date Worldometer

1,239 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 860

71,907 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    68,353

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Data Source: Worldometer 
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Details below…

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July 22: C-10 Data Dashboard

July 22, 2020

144,944  Deaths-to-Date Worldometer

1,113 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 829

66,933 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    68,322

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Data Source: Worldometer 
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Details below…  (more…)

The Sun Belt states vs. New York and its neighbors…

July 21, 2020

We’ve been emphasizing that while the number of confirmed cases has more than doubled since mid-April, daily reported new deaths have arguably stabilized at about half of their mid-April level.

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Today, let’s get a bit more granular and drill down to the states’ level… where the data is VERY interesting.

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July 21: C-19 Data Dashboard

July 21, 2020

143,825  Deaths-to-Date Worldometer

538 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 797

62,656 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    68,130

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Data Source: Worldometer 
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For details, keep reading… (more…)

July 20: C-19 Data Dashboard

July 20, 2020

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Data Source: Worldometer 
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Cumulative Deaths 
143,289 Worldometer
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412 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 786

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Worldometer

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Currently Hospitalized

> 57,000  July 17
> 7-day average      57,000
> April 22 peak        59,000
> June 21 low point  28,000

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RonaViz

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Confirmed Cases

> 65,279 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    68,535
> Highest day        73,388  July 16
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point  17,414

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Worldometer

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Worldometer 

July 19: C-19 DATA DASHBOARD

July 19, 2020

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Data Source: Worldometer 
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Cumulative Deaths 
142,877 Worldometer
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783 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 782

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Worldometer

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Currently Hospitalized

> 58,000  July 17
> 7-day average      55,000
> April 22 peak        59,000
> June 21 low point  28,000

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RonaViz

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Confirmed Cases

> 63,259 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    67,345
> Highest day        73,388  July 16
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point  17,414

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Worldometer

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Worldometer 

Where’s the case-related spike in deaths?

July 18, 2020

No question, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases has skyrocketed since mid-June.

During the same time period, daily new deaths reported have leveled off … typically ranging between 500 and 1,000.

The chart below displays the 7-day moving average of daily reported new cases and deaths … indexed to their levels in mid-April when daily new deaths previously peaked (2,824 on April 21) and daily new cases were running about 30,000.

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Data Source: Worldometer 

My take:

Even factoring a lag time between case diagnoses and deaths, it doesn’t appear that the higher case counts are driving a commensurate spike in deaths.

July 18: C-18 DATA DASHBOARD

July 18, 2020

Cumulative Deaths 
142,054 Worldometer

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939 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 758

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Worldometer

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Currently Hospitalized

> 57,000  July 16
> 7-day average      54,000
> April 22 peak        59,000
> June 21 low point  28,000

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RonaViz

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Confirmed Cases

> 74,987 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    67,325
> Highest day        73,388  July 16
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point  17,414

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RonaViz

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Worldometer 

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WSJ JHU

July 17: C-19 DATA DASHBOARD

July 17, 2020

Cumulative Deaths 
141,125 Worldometer

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965 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 758

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Worldometer

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Currently Hospitalized

> 57,000 Current
> 7-day average      54,000
> April 22 peak        59,000
> June 21 low point  28,000

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RonaViz

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Confirmed Cases

> 73,388 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    66,868
> Highest day        73,388  July 16
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point  17,414

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RonaViz

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Worldometer

July 16: C-19 DATA DASHBOARD

July 16, 2020

Cumulative Deaths 
140,160 Worldometer
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1,017 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 757

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Worldometer

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Currently Hospitalized

> 56,000 Current
> 7-day average      52,000
> April 22 peak        59,000
> June 21 low point  28,000

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RonaViz

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Confirmed Cases

> 71,750 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    63,693
> Highest day        71,750  July 15
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point  17,414

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RonaViz

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Worldometer

NYT editor resigns … and makes the obvious evident.

July 15, 2020

“The paper of record is, more and more, the record of those living in a distant galaxy”
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Bari Weiss, a high-profile editor and writer for the New York Times opinion section, resigned Monday, citing what she said was unchecked bullying from colleagues and depicting the news organization as a place where the free exchange of ideas was no longer welcome. Source

Ms. Weiss bills herself as a non-ideological centrist.  A position that seems to be borne out in media reactions to her resignation.

Liberal media sentiment: “Good riddance”; Conservative media: “Nice try, Dani”.

TV

What’s noteworthy is the scathing resignation letter that Ms. Weiss wrote and published online.

Here are some snippets….

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July 15: C-19 DATA DASHBOARD

July 15, 2020

Cumulative Deaths 
139,143 Worldometer
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895 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 739

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Worldometer

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Currently Hospitalized

> 54,000 Current
> 7-day average      48,000
> April 22 peak        59,000
> June 21 low point  28,000

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RonaViz

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Confirmed Cases

> 65,594 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    63,693
> Highest day        68,000  July 10
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point  17,414

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RonaViz

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Worldometer

More re: Super-spreader events, venues and activities.

July 14, 2020

Avoid them to improve your odds of staying COVID-free (and alive) 
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A consensus seems to be emerging among researchers that the bulk of coronavirus infections happen in “clusters” and can be traced to a small number of “super-spreading” people, events, venues and activities.

The obvious conclusion: avoid them to minimize the chance that you get infected.

In a prior post we explained why super-spreader people are so difficult to identify … and offered 2 principles: (1) Consider everybody that you run into as being a GUPI (Guilty Until Proven Innocent), and (2) avoid high risk activities and places where GUPIs hang out.

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Source

Let’s get practical on those principles…

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July 14: C-19 DATA DASHBOARD

July 14, 2020

Cumulative Deaths 
138,753 Worldometer
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460 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 753

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RonaViz

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Currently Hospitalized

> 54,000 Current
> 7-day average      48,000
> April 22 peak        59,000
> June 21 low point  28,000

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RonaViz

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Confirmed Cases

> 65,488 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    62,243
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point  17,414

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RonaViz

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RonaViz

DANGER: “Super-spreading” people, events, venues and activities.

July 13, 2020

Avoid them to improve your odds of staying COVID-free (and alive) 
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A consensus seems to be emerging among researchers that the bulk of coronavirus infections happen in “clusters” and can be traced to a small number of “super-spreading” people, events, venues and activities.

The obvious conclusion: Avoid them to minimize the chance that you get infected.

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Today, let’s drill down on the people who may be super-spreaders…

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July 13: C-19 DATA DASHBOARD

July 13, 2020

Cumulative Deaths 
137,746 Worldometer
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382 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 746

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RonaViz

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Currently Hospitalized

> 53,000 Current
> 7-day average      46,000
> April 22 peak        59,000
> June 21 low point  28,000

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RonaViz

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Confirmed Cases

> 58,349 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    60,114
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point  17,414

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RonaViz

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RonaViz

July 12: C-19 DATA DASHBOARD

July 12, 2020

Cumulative Deaths 
137,405 Worldometer
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734 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 727

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RonaViz

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Currently Hospitalized

> 52,000 Current
> 7-day average      44,000
> April 22 peak        59,000
> June 21 low point  28,000

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RonaViz

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Confirmed Cases

> 61719 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    57,960
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point  17,414

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RonaViz

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RonaViz

July 11: C-19 DATA DASHBOARD

July 11, 2020

Cumulative Deaths 
136,671 Worldometer
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849 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 653

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RonaViz

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Currently Hospitalized

> 52,000 Current
> 7-day average      42,000
> April 22 peak        59,000
> June 21 low point  28,000

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RonaViz

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Confirmed Cases

> 71787 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    55,597
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point  17,414

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RonaViz

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RonaViz

July 10: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

July 10, 2020

Cumulative Deaths 
135,822 Worldometer
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960 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 621

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RonaViz

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Currently Hospitalized

> 44,000 Current
> 7-day average      40,000
> April 22 peak        59,000
> June 21 low point  28,000

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RonaViz

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Confirmed Cases

> 61,067 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    53,186
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point  17,414

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RonaViz

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RonaViz

July 9: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

July 9, 2020

Cumulative Deaths 
134,862 Worldometer
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892 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 582

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RonaViz

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Currently Hospitalized

> 43,000 Current
> 7-day average      40,000
> April 22 peak        59,000
> June 21 low point  28,000

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RonaViz

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Confirmed Cases

> 64,848 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    82,896
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point  17,414

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RonaViz

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RonaViz

Finally, a Covid testing plan that makes sense to me…

July 8, 2020

Tip of the hat to Georgetown on this one.
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Last week, I did some reading re: the Herculean challenges facing colleges as they contemplate when and how to re-open.

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In a nutshell, residence colleges face three major challenges:

  1. Staying afloat financially
  2. Delivering a valuable education
  3. Keeping their campuses healthy

One aspect of healthy campuses is instituting a comprehensive Covid testing program.

Many schools are rationalizing  away the need for testing, arguing that tests aren’t sufficiently accurate and that they cost too much to administer. Source

That’s not the approach that Georgetown is taking…

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July 8: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

July 8, 2020

Expanded Data Set:
Cases > Hospitalizations > Deaths

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Cumulative Deaths 
133,972 Worldometer
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663 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 552

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RonaViz

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Currently Hospitalized

> 41,575 Current
> 7-day average      38,000
> April 22 peak        59,000
> June 21 low point  28,000

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RonaViz

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Confirmed Cases

> 55,442 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    50,156
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point  17,414

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WSJ

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RonaViz


July 7: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

July 7, 2020

414 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 517

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States reporting more than 25 New Deaths:
CA 76, TX 63, FL 46

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Cumulative Deaths 
132,979 Worldometer
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Confirmed Cases

> 50,586 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    48,172
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point  17,414

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WSJ

July 6: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

July 6, 2020

263 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 591

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States reporting more than 20 New Deaths:
NY 33, FL 29, TX 27, NJ 22

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Cumulative Deaths 
132,571 Worldometer
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Confirmed Cases

> 44.530 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    46,675
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414

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WSJ

July 4: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

July 4, 2020

688 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 643

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Cumulative Deaths 
132,101 Worldometer

Confirmed Cases

> 54,904 New Cases
> 7-day average 46,409