Archive for the ‘COVID-19 Tracking’ Category

May 25: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 25, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends, catching-up” on Mon & Tues

613 Daily New Deaths  Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,199
> Peaked on April 21

193 NY+NJ+CT 31% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
98,693
Worldometer
44,063 NY+NJ+CT 44% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

May 24, 2020

Which are the ones to watch?
=============

A loyal reader asked: The “Bottom 39” DND keeps rising, are there any particular states driving that?

So, I crunched some numbers looking at the past 3 weeks of data… May 3 until today (charts below).

During that period, there were 30,288 C-19 deaths in the U.S.

The Bottom 39 accounted for 8,601 of those deaths … that’s 28% of the total.

16 states (in the Bottom 39) had more than 200 deaths between May 3 and May 24.

Those 16 states accounted for 6,086 deaths … that’s 70% of the Bottom 39 total.

Note that:

  • The states near the top of the list of 16 are relatively large in population
  • Texas and North Carolina still have relatively low per capita death rates
  • Rhode Island and D.C. are low on the list of 16 (but in the Top 28) and have relatively high per capita death rates
  • Minnesota, Arizona, Mississippi, Iowa and New Mexico have more than doubled their death count since May 3

image

Here’s another cut at the data…

(more…)

May 24: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 24, 2020

1,043 Daily New Deaths  Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,224
> Peaked on April 21

271 NY+NJ+CT 21% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
98,693
Worldometer
43,954 NY+NJ+CT 45% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May24: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 24, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 98,693 299 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 43,954  45% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 78,218 79% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 508 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • Bottom 39 Average = 116 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge
image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May 23: Key NATIONAL Data

May 23, 2020

1,277 Daily New Deaths  Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,305

327 NY+NJ+CT 26% of US Total

image_thumb4

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
97,640
Worldometer
43,683 NY+NJ+CT 45% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May 23: Key STATES Data

May 23, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 97,640 296 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 43,683  45% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 77,488 79% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 504 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • Bottom 39 Average = 114 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May 22: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 22, 2020

1,445 Daily New Deaths  Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,350

339 NY+NJ+CT 25% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
96,363
Worldometer
43,356 NY+NJ+CT 45% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May 22: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 22, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 96,363 297 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 43,356  45% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 76,588 80% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 498 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • Bottom 39 Average = 111 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge
image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

 

May 21: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 21, 2020

1,385 Daily New Deaths  Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,392

381 NY+NJ+CT 28% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
94,918
Worldometer
43,092 NY+NJ+CT 45% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 21: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 21, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 94,918 288 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 43,092  45% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 75,699 80% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 492 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • Bottom 39 Average = 109 Deaths/Million
     Bottom 39: Increasing share of DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 20: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 20, 2020

1,548 Daily New Deaths  Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,444

334 NY+NJ+CT 22% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
93,533
Worldometer
42,711 NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 20: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 20, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 93,553 283 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 42,711  46% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 74,759 80% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 486 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • Bottom 39 Average = 107 Deaths/Million
     Bottom 39: Increasing share of DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image_thumb[2]

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

NYU: Hydroxychloroquine cocktail cuts death rate 44%

May 19, 2020

Oh yeah, and “Irresponsible” Trump is taking it.
============

Remember hydroxychloroquine?

It’s what the MSM likes to refer to as “an anti-malarial drug that is unproven as beneficial treating Covid-19 patients.”

It had kinda fallen off the radar, but it’s back.

President Trump caused a stir yesterday when he casually mentioned that he started taking HCQ as a preventative medicine.

The gathered reporters gasped: “Irresponsible!”

image

Before getting judgmental,  consider these underreported promising developments …

(more…)

May 19: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 19, 2020

1,007 Daily New Deaths  Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,456 

278 NY+NJ+CT 32% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
91,985
Worldometer
42,377 NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 19: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 19, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 91,985  279 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 42,377  46% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 73,375 80% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 479 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • Bottom 39 Average = 104 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May-18 Key NATIONAL Data

May 18, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends, catching-up” on Mon & Tues

865 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,456 

366 NY+NJ+CT 42% of US Total

image_thumb2

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
90,975
Worldometer
42,099 NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 18: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 18, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 90,978  276 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 42,099  47% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 72,963 80% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 474 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • Bottom 39 Average = 102 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Our slant on last week’s COVID-19 news

May 17, 2020

Just in case you might have missed
=============

Time to catch up on your HomaFiles reading:

“I was for hydroxychloroquine before I was against it”
… and other reasons that I couldn’t take the Dr. Bright seriously.

Data: Over half of C-19 deaths in nursing homes.

Oh my, what a disappointing Senate hearing…
Are these scientists just making things up as they go along?

COVID: How about squeezing the data and doing some old-fashioned profiling?
Hint: Go back and ask people who have been tested or hospitalized.

Survey: Some changes will endure post-coronavirus…

Gottleib: “We thought we’d be in a better place by now”
More deaths than expected … daily deaths on a plateau.

Birx: “Nothing from the CDC that I can trust”

May 17: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 17, 2020

1,606 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,439

336 NY+NJ+CT 21% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
90,113
Worldometer
41,733 NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 17: C-19 STATES Data

May 17, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 90,113  273 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 41,733  46% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 72,286 80% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 470 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • Bottom 39 Average = 101 Deaths/Million
    Bottom 39 Trend 4.2% > Top 12 1.2%

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 16: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 16, 2020

1,595 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,413

418 NY+NJ+CT 26% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
88,507
Worldometer
41,009 NY+NJ+CT 47% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 16: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 16, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 88,507  268 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 41,009  47% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 71,034 80% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 462 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 99Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,911  +45

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

“I was for hydroxychloroquine before I was against it”

May 15, 2020

… and other reasons that I couldn’t take the Dr. Bright seriously.
==============

Let, start at the beginning…

The “courageous” whistleblower walked into the hearing flanked by the same uber-partisan lawyers who represented Dr. Christine Blasey Ford in her failed attempt to torch Bret Kavanaugh.

image

I guess the signaling was supposed to be hash-tag “I Believe Him” but, at least for me, it signaled “Here We Go Again”

OK, that may be partisan-petty, so let’s get specific …

(more…)

May 15: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 15, 2020

1,740 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,426

449 NY+NJ+CT 26% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
86,912
Worldometer
40,591 NY+NJ+CT 47% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 15: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 15, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 86,912  263 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 40,591  47% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 69,935 81% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 455 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 96 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,866  +57

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 14: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 14, 2020

1,747 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,482 
> 3-day average 1,462

385 NY+NJ+CT 22% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
84,172
Worldometer
40,142  NY+NJ+CT 47% of US Total

Note: JHU reporting 84,059

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 14: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 14, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 85,172 258 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 40,142  47% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 68,704 81% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 447 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 93 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,809  +53

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 13: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 13, 2020

Headline: Downward trend appears real.

1,630 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,593 
> 3-day average 1,129

405 NY+NJ+CT 25% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
83,425
Worldometer
39,757  NY+NJ+CT 48% of US Total

Note: JHU reporting 82,339

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 13: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 13, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 83,425 253 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 39,755  48% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 67,430 81% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 438 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 91 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,756  +73

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 12: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 12, 2020

Headline: Downward trend appears real.

1,008 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,696 
> 3-day average 1,060

309 NY+NJ+CT 31% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
81,795
Worldometer
39,352  NY+NJ+CT 48% of US Total

Note: JHU reporting 80,378

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
137,184 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 2,709 on 5/10

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 12: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 12, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • NY+NJ+CT = 39,352  48% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 66,388 81% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 432 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 87 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,683  +39

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 11: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 11, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • NY+NJ+CT = 39,043  48% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 65,678 81% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 427 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 86 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,644  +30

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 11: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 11, 2020

Headline: Here’s hoping, but numbers look too good to be true.

750 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,741 
> 3-day trend 1,286

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends with “catch-up” on Mon & Tues

222 NY+NJ+CT 30% of US Total
NY = 41 <= looks suspicious 

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
80,787
Worldometer
39,043  NY+NJ+CT 48% of US Total

Note: JHU reporting 79,528

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
137,184 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 2,709 on 5/10

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 10: Key NATIONAL Data

May 10, 2020

1,422 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,798 
> 3-day trend 1,746

376 NY+NJ+CT 26% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
80,037
Worldometer
38,821  NY+NJ+CT 49% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

=============
click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 10: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 10, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • NY+NJ+CT = 38,821  49% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 65,112 81% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 423 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 85 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,614  +54

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 9: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 9, 2020

1,697 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,834 
> 3-day trend 2,113

449 NY+NJ+CT 27% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
78,615
Worldometer
38,445  NY+NJ+CT 49% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

=============
click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 9: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 9, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • NY+NJ+CT = 38,445  49% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 64,028 82% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 416 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 83 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,560  +57

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 8: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 8, 2020

2,129 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,865 Level
> 3-day trend 2,334 Up Slightly

750 NY+NJ+CT 65% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
76,928
Worldometer
37,996  NY+NJ+CT 49% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

=============
click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 8: Key STATES Data

May 8, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • NY+NJ+CT = 37,996  49% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 62,894 82% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 409 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 80 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,503  +66

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 7: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 7, 2020

2,524 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,881 trending down
> 3-day trend 2,066 DOWNWARD

1,117 NY+NJ+CT 44% of US Total
NY “found” 1,700 “presumed” cases.

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
74,799
Worldometer
37,246  NY+NJ+CT 50% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

=============
click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 7: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 7, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • NY+NJ+CT = 37,246  50% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 61,209 82% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 398 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 77 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,437  +47

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Except for timing, the new IHME forecast isn’t as shocking as it seems…

May 6, 2020

In mid-April, we pointed out the obvious: the operative projection at the time (60,000 deaths by Aug. 4)  — which was modeled by IHME, touted by Pres. Trump, and head-nodded by Drs. Fauci & Birx — was arithmetically unlikely.

Our simple logic: At the time, the US had already had about 40,000 deaths and was running at a rate of about 2,000 new deaths each day. To stay under 60,000, the average daily death rate would need to drop to 200. That didn’t seem likely.

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And, we pointed out that IHME routinely reported a wide confidence interval (aka. zone of uncertainty) that ranged up to 140,000.

The new 134.475 projection falls within that confidence level.

Add to the mix some data mumbo-jumbo: There have been some definitional and procedural changes that have boosted the reported number of deaths.

(more…)

May 6: C-19 NATIONAL Data

May 6, 2020

Consecutive 5-day down streak ENDED
=============

2,350 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,875 trending down
> 3-day trend 1,858 DOWNWARD

678 NY+NJ+CT 29% of US Total
346  Pennsylvania         

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
72,275
Worldometer
33,573  NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

Now, IHME forecasts for the US are based on a new hybrid model.

(The original model) is now combined with a disease transmission model.

The latest US forecasts are based on four key determinants estimated from data: mobility, population density, testing, and temperature.

The new model captures the impact of changes in social distancing mandates, changes in mobility, and the impact of testing and contact tracing.

It enables predicting a resurgence when social distancing mandates are relaxed.

Source: IHME

Note: The revised forecast implies that new deaths average ~ 650 per day from now until Aug. 4.  Current 7-day moving average is 1,875; 3-day moving average is 1,381.

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click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 6: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 6, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • NY+NJ+CT = 36,128  50% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • PA +346   NJ +341   IL +176   MA +122
  • Top 12 Total = 59,232 82% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 385 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 74 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,390  +73

State-by-State Data – Top 12

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 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 5: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 5, 2020

Major upward revision of IHME forecast
=============

1,324 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> DOWN for 5 consecutive days
> 7-day trend 1,875 trending down
> 3-day trend 1,383 DOWNWARD

442 NY+NJ+CT 33% of US Total            

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
69,925
Worldometer
35,451  NY+NJ+CT 51% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

Starting today, IHME forecasts for the US are based on a new hybrid model.

(The original model) is now combined with a disease transmission model.

The latest US forecasts are based on four key determinants estimated from data: mobility, population density, testing, and temperature.

The new model captures the impact of changes in social distancing mandates, changes in mobility, and the impact of testing and contact tracing.

It enables predicting a resurgence when social distancing mandates are relaxed.

Source: IHME

Note: The revised forecast implies that new deaths average ~ 650 per day from now until Aug. 4.  Current 7-day moving average is 1,875; 3-day moving average is 1,381.

=============
click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May 4, 2020

Tests, Confirmed Cases, Deaths
Cumulative Totals and Key Ratios

Data as of May 3, 2020
==============

Now that we seem to be heading down the backside of “the curve” and are starting to re-open the economy … I thought it would be a good time to heatmap where states stand relative to each other along the key variables: number of tests, confirmed cases and deaths … and, to “normalize” the data by adding some key ratios.

For example, here are the 10 states with the highest number of deaths per million … and the 10 with the lowest number of deaths per million:

image

>>  Click for a PDF that displays all of the data <<

The reference guide includes sections sorted by:

  • State name (alphabetical)
  • Tests per million (population)
  • Confirmed cases per million (population)
  • Ratio: confirmed (positive) cases to the total number of tests
  • Total deaths to date
  • Deaths per million
  • Ratio:deaths per confirmed (positive) test

All data is sourced from Worldometer as of May 3 2020.

May 4: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 4, 2020

1,154 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> DOWN for 5 consecutive days
> 7-day trend 1,884 declining slightly
Caution: Weekend reporting has tended to under-report,
catching-up on Mon & Tues
 

483 NY+NJ+CT 42% of US Total            

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
68,602
Worldometer
35,029  NY+NJ+CT 51% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
72,433 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 1,213 on 4/29

=============
click for Key STATES Data
=============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 4: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 4, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 35,029  51% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 56,662 83% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 368 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 68 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,281  +30

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 3: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 3, 2020

1,672 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> DOWN for 4 consecutive days
> 7-day trend 1,883 declining slightly 

600 NY+NJ+CT 35% of US Total            

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
67,448
Worldometer
36,526  NY+NJ+CT 51% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
72,433 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 1,213 on 4/29 

=============
click for Key STATES Data
=============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 3: Key STATS Data

May 3, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • GA  out of Top 12; replaced by IN
  • NY+NJ+CT = 34,546  52% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 55,722 83% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 363 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 66 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,251  +52

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?