**Or, would we morph to a “pandemic of the vaccinateds”?**

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Biden keeps blaming *(shaming?)* the persistence of the coronavirus on the folks who “stubbornly” refuse to get vaccinated.

That raises the headlined question: “If we got to the point that 100% of the population was vaccinated, would the coronavirus finally be vanquished?

Let’s put aside politics, religion and even the debate on natural immunity … and just run some numbers.

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__Starting Point__

Early-on we were told that the vaccines were roughly **90% effective** against symptomatic infections.

English translation: Comparing matched samples of fully vaccinated and unvaccinated study participants … roughly equivalent in their natural susceptibility and their viral exposure … 90% a fewer vaccinated people became __symptomatically infected__ (as compared to the symptomatically infected unvaccinated participants).

Currently, the CDC is reporting that about **70%** of the adult population (18 and over) has been **vaccinated**.

About **225 million** Americans fall into the 18 and over category.

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__Step 1__

To illustrate the math, we’ll use the **70%** and **225** million numbers.

There are about **67.5** unvaccinated adults *(100% minus 70% = 30% times 225 million equals 67.5).*

And, assuming __full vaccine effectiveness__ *(90%)*, there are **15.75** million vaccinated adults who are medically equivalent to the unvaccinated adults (*225 times 70% times 10% equals 15.75*).

Let’s coin the sum of those 2 groups __ U__n

**accinated**

__V__**quivalents or “**

__E__**UVEs”.**.

So, at full vaccine effectiveness (*90%*), we have **83.25 million UVEs** (*67.5 + 17.5 equals 83.25)* … that’s about **37%** of the over 18 adult population.

But, the vaccines have waning effectiveness, right?

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__Waning Effectiveness__

It has been reported that, over the course of 6 months, the vaccines lose about half of their effectiveness.

To keep the arithmetic simple, we’ll assume that 6 months after full vaccination, the vaccines wane to **50% effectiveness.**

To start, let’s assume that everybody who is vaccinated got vaccinated exactly 6 months ago *(and hasn’t gotten a booster shot).*

That would raise the number of UVEs *(unvaccinated equivalents)* up to **146.25 million** *(equal to 65% of 18 and over adults)* … the 146.25 million is made up of 67.5 million unvaccinateds and 78.5 million vaccinateds whose vaccine effectiveness has waned (*225 times 70% times 50%*).

Let’s get more realistic…

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__Base Case__

The prior scenario assumed that all people were vaccinated exactly 6 months ago.

But, not all vaccinateds got vaccinated exactly 6 months ago … they got vaccinated over the course of 6 months … and, thus, theyare at varying stages of vaccine “wanedness” … somewhere between 90% full effectiveness and 50% waned effectiveness.

If we assume that the vaccinations were evenly spread over the 6 months (*rather than all on day one*) then the average vaccine effectiveness among those who have been vaccinated would be about **70%** *(the average — halfway between 90% and 50%).*

That would give us **114.75 million UVEs** *(equal to about half of all adults)* … made up of 67.5 million unvaccinateds *(225 times 30%) *and 47.25 million vaccinateds with waned vaccine effectiveness (*225 times 70% times 30%)*

Let’s call that our base case.

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__What if 100% vaccinated?__

Now let’s bump the fully vaccinated rate up to 100% and see what happens…

There would be no unvaccinated adults, but there would be UVEs (*unvaccinated equivalents*) — the vaccinated adults with waned vaccine effectiveness.

How many of them?

Using the above logic and numbers, there would be **67.5 million UVEs** *(225 times 100% times 30%) *… fully vaccinated adults whose vaccine effectiveness has waned … rendering them roughly equivalent to an unvaccinated person.

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__Rscap__

Note that the **67.5 million UVEs** is — coincidentally, using the above assumptions — the same number as the number of unvaccinateds who are currently walking around.

And, it implicitly assumes that everybody gets a booster every 6 months … to keep resetting the effectiveness clock.

To be fair, this estimate doesn’t adjust for any accumulated effectiveness that comes with successive booster shots or pre-existing natural immunity).

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__The bottom line__

Based on these rough estimates, we won’t move above our current level of coronavirus exposure even if 100% of the population gets vaccinated.

So, Biden will eventually lose his talking point of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” … and, unless there’s a marked improvement in the vaccines’ “durability”. we’ll morph to a “pandemic of the waned vaccinated”

That’s not a medical or philosophical point … It’s simple (?) arithmetic.

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