Archive for the ‘COVID-19 Tracking’ Category

May 7: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 7, 2020

2,524 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,881 trending down
> 3-day trend 2,066 DOWNWARD

1,117 NY+NJ+CT 44% of US Total
NY “found” 1,700 “presumed” cases.

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
74,799
Worldometer
37,246  NY+NJ+CT 50% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

=============
click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 7: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 7, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • NY+NJ+CT = 37,246  50% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 61,209 82% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 398 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 77 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,437  +47

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Except for timing, the new IHME forecast isn’t as shocking as it seems…

May 6, 2020

In mid-April, we pointed out the obvious: the operative projection at the time (60,000 deaths by Aug. 4)  — which was modeled by IHME, touted by Pres. Trump, and head-nodded by Drs. Fauci & Birx — was arithmetically unlikely.

Our simple logic: At the time, the US had already had about 40,000 deaths and was running at a rate of about 2,000 new deaths each day. To stay under 60,000, the average daily death rate would need to drop to 200. That didn’t seem likely.

image

And, we pointed out that IHME routinely reported a wide confidence interval (aka. zone of uncertainty) that ranged up to 140,000.

The new 134.475 projection falls within that confidence level.

Add to the mix some data mumbo-jumbo: There have been some definitional and procedural changes that have boosted the reported number of deaths.

(more…)

May 6: C-19 NATIONAL Data

May 6, 2020

Consecutive 5-day down streak ENDED
=============

2,350 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,875 trending down
> 3-day trend 1,858 DOWNWARD

678 NY+NJ+CT 29% of US Total
346  Pennsylvania         

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
72,275
Worldometer
33,573  NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

Now, IHME forecasts for the US are based on a new hybrid model.

(The original model) is now combined with a disease transmission model.

The latest US forecasts are based on four key determinants estimated from data: mobility, population density, testing, and temperature.

The new model captures the impact of changes in social distancing mandates, changes in mobility, and the impact of testing and contact tracing.

It enables predicting a resurgence when social distancing mandates are relaxed.

Source: IHME

Note: The revised forecast implies that new deaths average ~ 650 per day from now until Aug. 4.  Current 7-day moving average is 1,875; 3-day moving average is 1,381.

=============
click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 6: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 6, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • NY+NJ+CT = 36,128  50% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • PA +346   NJ +341   IL +176   MA +122
  • Top 12 Total = 59,232 82% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 385 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 74 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,390  +73

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 5: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 5, 2020

Major upward revision of IHME forecast
=============

1,324 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> DOWN for 5 consecutive days
> 7-day trend 1,875 trending down
> 3-day trend 1,383 DOWNWARD

442 NY+NJ+CT 33% of US Total            

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
69,925
Worldometer
35,451  NY+NJ+CT 51% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

Starting today, IHME forecasts for the US are based on a new hybrid model.

(The original model) is now combined with a disease transmission model.

The latest US forecasts are based on four key determinants estimated from data: mobility, population density, testing, and temperature.

The new model captures the impact of changes in social distancing mandates, changes in mobility, and the impact of testing and contact tracing.

It enables predicting a resurgence when social distancing mandates are relaxed.

Source: IHME

Note: The revised forecast implies that new deaths average ~ 650 per day from now until Aug. 4.  Current 7-day moving average is 1,875; 3-day moving average is 1,381.

=============
click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May 4, 2020

Tests, Confirmed Cases, Deaths
Cumulative Totals and Key Ratios

Data as of May 3, 2020
==============

Now that we seem to be heading down the backside of “the curve” and are starting to re-open the economy … I thought it would be a good time to heatmap where states stand relative to each other along the key variables: number of tests, confirmed cases and deaths … and, to “normalize” the data by adding some key ratios.

For example, here are the 10 states with the highest number of deaths per million … and the 10 with the lowest number of deaths per million:

image

>>  Click for a PDF that displays all of the data <<

The reference guide includes sections sorted by:

  • State name (alphabetical)
  • Tests per million (population)
  • Confirmed cases per million (population)
  • Ratio: confirmed (positive) cases to the total number of tests
  • Total deaths to date
  • Deaths per million
  • Ratio:deaths per confirmed (positive) test

All data is sourced from Worldometer as of May 3 2020.

May 4: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 4, 2020

1,154 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> DOWN for 5 consecutive days
> 7-day trend 1,884 declining slightly
Caution: Weekend reporting has tended to under-report,
catching-up on Mon & Tues
 

483 NY+NJ+CT 42% of US Total            

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
68,602
Worldometer
35,029  NY+NJ+CT 51% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
72,433 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 1,213 on 4/29

=============
click for Key STATES Data
=============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 4: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 4, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 35,029  51% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 56,662 83% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 368 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 68 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,281  +30

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 3: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 3, 2020

1,672 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> DOWN for 4 consecutive days
> 7-day trend 1,883 declining slightly 

600 NY+NJ+CT 35% of US Total            

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
67,448
Worldometer
36,526  NY+NJ+CT 51% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
72,433 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 1,213 on 4/29 

=============
click for Key STATES Data
=============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 3: Key STATS Data

May 3, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • GA  out of Top 12; replaced by IN
  • NY+NJ+CT = 34,546  52% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 55,722 83% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 363 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 66 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,251  +52

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 2: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 2, 2020

1,905 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> DOWN for 3 consecutive days
> 7-day trend @ ~1,937 declining slightly 

681 NY+NJ+CT 35% of US            

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
65,776
Worldometer
33,946  NY+NJ+CT 52% of US

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
72,433 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 1,213 on 4/29 

=============
click for Key STATES Data
=============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 2: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 2, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • GA drops out of Top 12; replaced by IN
  • NY+NJ+CT = 33,946  52% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 54,398 83% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 354 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 65 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,192  +52

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 1: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 1, 2020

2,236 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend is level @ ~2,000

853 NY+NJ+CT 38% of US            

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
63,871
Worldometer

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
72,433 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 1,213 on 4/29 

=============

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

April 30: Key NATIONAL Data

April 30, 2020

2,369 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend is level @ ~2,000

737 NY+NJ+CT 31% of US & dropping             

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
61,635
Worldometer

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
72,860 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 1,213 on 4/29 

=============
click for Key STATES Data
=============

Click to see the video that YouTube blocked:
The contrarian California docs who are challenging the scientific consensus.

April 30: Key STATES Data

April 30, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 32,412  53% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 51,234 83% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 325 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 60 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,078  +62

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

April 29: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

April 29, 2020

2,463 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> Big increase from prior day
(likely under-reporting in prior 2 days)

> 7-day trend is level

996 in NY+NJ+CT 39% of US              

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
59,256
Worldometer

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
74,073 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 1,665 on 4/28
According to IHME: upped b/c “presumed deaths” added by CDC in mid-stream; long NY plateau; states opening before Aug.4

=============
click for Key STATES Data
=============

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

April 29: Key STATES Data

April 29, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 31,675  54% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 49,466 84% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 313 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 57 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,016  +71

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

April 28: C-119 Key NATIONAL Data

April 28, 2020

1,391 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day moving average 2,041
> 7-day trend is downward

541 in NY+NJ+CT 39% of US              

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
56,803
Worldometer
56,253  
JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
74,073 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 1,665 on 4/28

=============
click for Key STATES Data
=============

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

April 28: C-19 Key STATES Data

April 28, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 30,650  54% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 47,475 84% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 301 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 54 Deaths/Million
  • GA +70  … likely under-reporting
    in prior 2 days
  • Maryland 945  +35

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

April 27: Key STATES Data

April 27, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 30,137  54% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 46,454 84% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 294 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 52 Deaths/Million
  • GA under 10 new deaths for 2nd day
  • Maryland 910  +35

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

April 27: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

April 27, 2020

1,147 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> Best day in nearly a month
> 5-day trend is downward

>Note: Weekend reporting has tended to under-record the number of weekend deaths, carrying some over to Monday & Tuesday

504 in NY+NJ+CT 44% of US              

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
55,412 
Worldometer
54,841  
JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
67,641 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 1,665 on 4/22

=============
click for Key STATES Data
=============

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

April 26: C-19 Key NATIONAL Chart

April 26, 2020

2,039 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 5-day trend is downward.
> 7-day average 2,177

961 in NY+NJ+CT 38% of US              

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
54,256 
Worldometer
53,934  
JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
67,641 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 1,665 on 4/22

=============
click for  Key STATES Data
=============

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

April 26: C-19 Key STATES Data

April 26, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 29,633  55% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 45,541 84% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 289 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 51 Deaths/Million
  • FL & GA under 10 new deaths 
  • Maryland 875  +77

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

April 25: C-19 Key NATIONAL Chart

April 25, 2020

1,974 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> Down from prior 3 days
> 7-day average 2,149

744 in NY+NJ+CT 38% of US              

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
52,217 
Worldometer
51,949   
JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
67,641 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 1,665 on 4/22

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

April 25: C-19 Key STATES Chart

April 25, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 28,672  55% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 43,841 84% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 278 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 49 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 798  +50

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

April 24: C-19 UPDATE

April 24, 2020

Today’s Headlines
Death toll over 50,000
2,562 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
IHME forecast 67,641 by Aug. 4

Must Read: About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths…
=============

KEY CHART: Daily New Deaths (DNDs)

2,562 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 2,229

967 in NY+NJ+CT 38% of US              

image

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
50,243 
Worldometer
49,963   
JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
67,641 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 1,665 on 4/22

=============

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 27,928  56% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 42,376 84% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 268 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 46 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 748  +50

State-by-State Data – Top 12

(more…)

April 23: C-19 UPDATE

April 23, 2020

Today’s Headlines
2,338 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
IHME forecast  UPPED to 67,641
Maryland into Top 12; Washington out

Must Read: About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths…
=============

KEY CHART: Daily New Deaths (DNDs)

2,338 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 2,174

1,092 in NY+NJ+CT 47% of US              

image

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
47,681 
Worldometer
46,785   
JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
67,641 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 1,665 on 4/22

=============

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 26,961  57% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 40,548 85% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 257 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
    Bottom 39 Average = 39 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland into Top 12; Washington out

State-by-State Data – Top 12

(more…)

April 22: C-19 >> ALERT! <<

April 22, 2020

A very bad day…
> Highest Daily Deaths toll so far
> IHME forecast  UPPED to 65,976

Must Read: About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths…
=============
Today’s Headline
DNDs UP from prior day
IHME forecast  UP to 65,976

KEY CHART: Daily New Deaths (DNDs)

2,824 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> UP from prior days
> Highest DNDs total so far
> 7-day average 2,214

1,232 in NY+NJ+CT 44% of US
> UP 44% from prior day                    

image

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
45,343 
Worldometer
45,075   
JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
65,976 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 5,668 on 4/21

=============

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 25,869  57% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 38,682 85% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 242 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
    Bottom 39 Average = 39 Deaths/Million
  • MD 562 Total Deaths  +46 DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

(more…)

April 21: C-19 UPDATE

April 21, 2020

Must Read: About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths…
=============
Today’s Headline
DNDs UP from prior day
7-day moving average 2,156 DND

KEY CHART: Daily New Deaths (DNDs)

1,954 Daily New Deaths Worldometer

856 in NY+NJ+CT 44% of US                    

image

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
42,513 
Worldometer
42,364   
JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,308 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 8,533 on 4/16

=============

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 24,553  58% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 36,416 86% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 228 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
    Bottom 39 Average = 36 Deaths/Million
  • MD 516 Total Deaths  +30 DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

(more…)

April 20: C-19 UPDATE

April 20, 2020

Trending: WaPo: “A glaring scientific breakdown at the CDC”
=============
Today’s Headline
DNDs down 16% from prior day
3-day moving average DOWN 

KEY CHART: Daily New Deaths (DNDs)

1,550 Daily New Deaths Worldometer

800 in NY+NJ+CT   52% of Total US
DOWN significantly 2 days in a row

image

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
40,565 
Worldometer
40,689   
JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,308 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 8,533 on 4/16

=============

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 23,627  59% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 34,821 86% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 218 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
    Bottom 39 Average = 34 Deaths/Million
  • MD 486 Total Deaths  +23 DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

(more…)

April 19: C-19 UPDATE

April 19, 2020

DNDs down 27% from prior day
3-day moving average DOWN 

KEY CHART: Daily New Deaths (DNDs)

1,867 Daily New Deaths Worldometer

1,347 in NY+NJ+CT   53% of Total US
DOWN significantly from prior day 

image

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
39,015 
Worldometer
39,090 
JHU

image

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,308 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 8,533 on 4/16

=============

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 22,827  59% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 33,520 86% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 210 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
    Bottom 39 Average = 32 Deaths/Million
  • MD 463 Total Deaths  +38 DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

 

(more…)

April 18: C-19 UPDATE

April 18, 2020

KEY CHART: Daily New Deaths

2,535 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
UP slightly from prior day; level w/ prior 3  

1,347 in NY+NJ+CT   53% of Total US
UP slightly from prior day 

image

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
37.175 
Worldometer
37,079 
JHU

Note: Both Worldometer and JHU have “absorbed”  the NY addition of “presumed” C-19 deaths.  So, there is a step increase in cumulative deaths (starting on April 16). Daily New Death counts are not effected.

image

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,308 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 8,533 on 4/16

=============

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 22,007  58% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 31,996 86% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 201 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • MD 425 Total Deaths  +76 DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

(more…)

April 17: C-19 => SCRAMBLED DATA

April 17, 2020

This morning, the WSJ reported that — based on their analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University:

In the 24 hours ending at 8 p.m. Eastern time Thursday, 4,591 people have died from Covid-19,

The prior record was 2,569 on Wednesday.

Worldometer – my primary source for C-19 fatality numbers – reported 2,179 Daily New Deaths.

So, based on 2 credible sources, C-19 deaths yesterday either increased by 2,022 (to 4.591) … or, they decreased by 390 (to 2,179).

That difference between estimates certainly falls into the category of “statistically significant” … especially hours after a government plan is announced to re-open the country for commerce.

I have greater confidence in Worldometer’s data analysis, so I’m going with their 2,179 DND number (with more explanation of the black bar to follow later):

image

My conclusion: Yesterday’s Daily New Deaths declined slightly from the prior day. … but the 3-day moving average is trending up slightly.

But, there’s a looming question:

What the hell is going on?

(more…)

April 16: C-19 UPDATE

April 16, 2020

KEY CHART: Daily New Deaths

2,490 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
Level from prior day  

1,103 in NY+NJ+CT   46% of Total US
DOWN slightly from prior day 

image

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
28,554 
Worldometer
30,985 
JHU

Note: NYC added 3,700 “presumed” covid cases.  It appears that JHU has added (some of) those deaths to their numbers, but that Worldometer has not (to preserve continuity with prior data).  We’re trying to unscramble the impact on the historical comparisons.  For now, we’re just going with the Worldometer data.

image

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
68,841 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 8,436 on 4/13

=============

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 15,610  55% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 24,115 85% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 151 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • MD 349 Total Deaths  +47 DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

(more…)

April 15: C-19 UPDATE

April 15, 2020

A VERY BAD DAY !

KEY CHART: Daily New Deaths

2,420 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
UP 69% from prior day  

1,209 in NY+NJ+CT   50% of Total US
UP 50% from prior day 

image

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
26,064 
Worldometer
26,057 
JHU

 

image

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
68,841 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 8,436 on 4/13

=============

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 14,310  55% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 22,043 85% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 138 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • MD 302 Total Deaths  +37 DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

The video that CNN won’t let you see

April 14: C-19 UPDATE

April 14, 2020

Recommended Reading:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Shocker: NY Times concludes that it’s all Trump’s fault…

===============

KEY CHART: Daily New Deaths
3 Consecutive decreasing days

image

TODAY”S DATA

1,429 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
   805 in NY+NJ+CT   56% of Total US
      Down from 1,105 prior day

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
23,640 
Worldometer
23,604 
JHU
Rate of change is decreasing

image

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
68,841 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 8,436 on 4/13

=============

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 13,101  55% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 20,048 85% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 126 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • MD 265 Total Deaths  27 DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

(more…)

April 13: Covid-19 UPDATE

April 13, 2020

Recommended Reading:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Remember when Cuomo (and the media) trashed Trump for not believing the models?

===============

TODAY”S DATA

1,635 Daily New Deaths   Worldometer
2 Consecutive decreasing days
1,055 in NY+NJ+CT   65% of Total US

Pivotal question: Past the apex?

IHME Model   Peak DND Projection:
1,983 on April 10  Prior forecast 2,212

image

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
22,215  Worldometer
22,109  JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,415 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 130 on 4/12

=============

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 12,289  55% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 18,745 84% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 117 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • MD 235 Total Deaths  29 DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

(more…)

April 12: Covid-19 UPDATE

April 12, 2020

Recommended Reading:

How strictly are you complying to stop the spread?

What you need to know about the IHME Model…

Why have the model’s forecasts dropped so much?

===============

TODAY”S DATA

1,819 Daily New Deaths   Worldometer
5 Consecutive days ~ 2,000 DND
1,,077 in NY+NJ+CT   59% of Total US

Pivotal question: An apex or a plateau?

IHME Model   Peak DND Projection:
2,212 on April 12  Revised DOWN 918 on 4/7

image

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
20,580  Worldometer
20,608   JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,415 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 21,351 on 4/7

=============

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 11,304  55% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 17,371 84% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 109 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • MA, IL moving up in ranking
  • Indiana is #13 with 330 Deaths +30 DND
  • MD 206 Total Deaths  35 DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

(more…)

April 11: Covid-19 UPDATE

April 11, 2020

Recommended Reading:

Why is New York ablaze while California is just simmering?

Why have the model’s forecasts dropped so much?

What you need to know about the IHME Model…

How strictly are you complying to stop the spread?

===============

TODAY”S DATA

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
18.761  Worldometer
18.777   JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,415 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 21,351 on 4/7

image

=============

2,064 Daily New Deaths   Worldometer
4 Consecutive days ~ 2,000 DND
Pivotal question: An apex or a plateau?

1,,077 in NY+NJ+CT

IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
2,212 on April 12  Revised DOWN 918 on 4/7

image

=============

State-by-State Detail …

(more…)

April 10: COVID-19 Tracker

April 10, 2020

Recommended Background Reading:
Why is New York ablaze while California is just simmering?
=============

TODAY”S DATA

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
16,697  Worldometer
16,686   JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,415 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 21,351 on 4/7

image

=============

1900 Daily New Deaths   Worldometer
3 Consecutive high DND days
1,104 in NY+NJ+CT

IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
2,212 on April 12  Revised DOWN 918 on 4/7

image

=============

State-by-State Detail …

(more…)

April 9: COVID-19 Tracker

April 9, 2020

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
14,797  Worldometer
14,808   JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,415 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 21,351 on 4/7

image

=============

1,940 Daily New Deaths   Worldometer
Consecutive high days in DNDs
1,104 in NY+NJ+CT

IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
2,212 on April 12  Revised DOWN 918 on 4/7

image

=============
State-by-State Detail

(more…)

April 8: COVIDS-19 Tracker

April 8, 2020

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
12,857  Worldometer
12,911   JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,415 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 21,351 on 4/7  

image

=============

1,970 Daily New Deaths   Worldometer
See technical note at end of post
Big spike up in DNDs
1,031 in NY+NJ+CT

IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
2,212 on April 12  Revised DOWN 918 on 4/7

image
=============
State-by-State Detail

(more…)

Raise your hand if you want to be in the placebo group…

April 7, 2020

We opted for a “doctor supervised off-label test” instead of a randomized control test. Here’s why.
==============

American Society of Hand Therapists (ASHT)

Dr. Fauci has consistently dissed the use of hydroxychloroquine because there hasn’t been a large-scale, double-blind control test proving its efficacy.

There are plenty of field reports, patient testimonials and doctors prescribing the drug “off-label” (or even using it themselves as a prophylactic).

But, Dr. Fauci advises that we all just chill for a year or so until the “proper” scientific testing is done.

That point-of-view hits close to home.

Here’s a very personal story…

(more…)

April 6: COVID-19 Tracker

April 6, 2020

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
9,620  Worldometer
9,648   JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
93,531 by August 4   

image

=============

1,166 Daily New Deaths   Worldometer
See technical note below chart

IHME Model  Peak DND Projection:
2,644 on April 16 

Dotted red line is 3-day moving average
image

Technical note: Worldometer’s calculation of DNDs sometimes falls out of sync with their reporting of Total Deaths. Probably due to reporting issues on granular state data. We are validity check the Worldometer Total Deaths against the JHU reporting … and do our own calculation of DNDs by comparing day-to-day Total Death numbers.

=============
State-by-State Data

(more…)

April 5: COVID-19 Tracker

April 5, 2020

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
8,454  Worldometer
8,503   JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
93,531 by August 4   

image

=============

1,051 Daily New Deaths   Worldometer
See technical note below chart

IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
2,644 on April 16   

image

Technical note: Worldometer’s calculation of DNDs has fallen out of sync with their reporting of Total Deaths. Probably due to reporting issues on granular state data. Starting today, we are validity checking the Worldometer Total Deaths against the JHU reporting … and doing our own calculation of DNDs by comparing day-to-day Total Death numbers.

=============
State-by-State Data

(more…)

April 4 – COVID-19 Tracker

April 4, 2020

1,328 Daily New Deaths   Worldometer

IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
2,644 on April 16   

image

=============

7,403 Cumulative U.S. Deaths  Worldometer 

NY = 3,218  43% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
93,531 by August 4   

image

=============
State-by-State Data

(more…)

April 3: COVID-19 Tracker

April 3, 2020

COVID-19 Deaths (Daily & To Date) Worldometer

image

=============

963 Daily New Deaths Down Slightly  Worldometer   

image

Projected Daily New Deaths   IHME Model

  • Peak DND Projection: 2,644 on April 16

image

=============

6,075 Cumulative U.S. Deaths    Worldometer   

image

Projected U.S. Deaths  IHME Model

  • Up 10,000 since 3/31/2020
  • NY = 16,261  17.5% of US Total

image_thumb16

=============
State-by-State Data
(more…)

April 2: COVID-19 Tracker

April 2, 2020

COVID-19 Deaths (Daily & To Date) Worldometer

image

=============

Daily New Deaths UP  Worldometer   

image

Projected Daily New Deaths   IHME Model

  • Peak DND Projection: 2,644 on April 16

image

=============

Cumulative U.S. Deaths    Worldometer   

image

Projected U.S. Deaths  IHME Model

  • Up 10,000 since 3/31/2020
  • NY = 16,261  17.5% of US Total

image

=============
State-by-State Data
(more…)

April 1: COVID Tracker

April 1, 2020

COVID-19 Deaths (Daily & To Date) Worldometer

image

Daily New Deaths UP  Worldometer   

image

Projected Daily New Deaths   IHME Model

  • Peak DND Projection: 2,607 on April 16

image

=============
State-by-State Data

(more…)