The Homa Files

414 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 517

States reporting more than 25 New Deaths:
CA 76, TX 63, FL 46

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Cumulative Deaths 
132,979 Worldometer
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Confirmed Cases

> 50,586 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    48,172
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point  17,414

WSJ

263 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 591

States reporting more than 20 New Deaths:
NY 33, FL 29, TX 27, NJ 22

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Cumulative Deaths 
132,571 Worldometer
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Confirmed Cases

> 44.530 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    46,675
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414

WSJ

688 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 643

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Cumulative Deaths 
132,101 Worldometer

Confirmed Cases

> 54,904 New Cases
> 7-day average 46,409 

> 56,939 New Cases
> 7-day average 44,276 

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688 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 643

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Cumulative Deaths 
131,477 Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
175,168 by Oct 1 DOWN 3,938 on June 29

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Key States Data

> 10 states reporting 22 or more new deaths 

> Note high per capita DNDs in MA, LA & AZ

click to enlarge table

> 44,766 New Cases
> 7-day average 41118 

WSJ

Confirmed cases have spiked upwards, mostly in Southern & Western states. The majority of the uptick is in the under 45 age group.  Some of the under 45s require hospitalization, but relatively few die (compared to the elderly death rate).

• For details, see: Remember when the med-science community told young adults that the virus wouldn’t hurt them?

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680 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 628

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Cumulative Deaths 
130,789 Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
175,168 by Oct 1 DOWN 3,938 on June 29

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Key States Data

> 10 states reporting 23 or more new deaths 

> Note high per capita DNDs in AZ and SC

click to enlarge table

> 41,556 New Cases
> 7-day average 39,750 

WSJ

Confirmed cases have spiked upwards, mostly in Southern & Western states. The majority of the uptick is in the under 45 age group.  Some of the under 45s require hospitalization, but relatively few die (compared to the elderly death rate).

• For details, see: Remember when the med-science community told young adults that the virus wouldn’t hurt them?

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751 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 646
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
130,109 Worldometer
190,187 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
175,168 by Oct 1 DOWN 3,938 on June 29

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Key States Data

> 10 states reporting 23 or more new deaths 

> Note high per capita DNDs in NJ, AZ and LA

click to enlarge table

> 38,845 New Cases
> 7-day average 38,192 

WSJ

Confirmed cases have spiked upwards, mostly in Southern & Western states. The majority of the uptick is in the under 45 age group.  Some of the under 45s require hospitalization, but relatively few die (compared to the elderly death rate).

• For details, see: Remember when the med-science community told young adults that the virus wouldn’t hurt them?

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351 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 581
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
128,788 Worldometer
183,407 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
175,168 by Oct 1 DOWN 3,938 on June 29

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Key States Data

> 9 states reporting more than 10 new deaths 

> Note high per capita DNDs in RI, MS and MA

click to enlarge table

299 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 583
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
128,437 Worldometer
183,808 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
179,106 by Oct 1 UP 22,023 on June 25

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table

None of the Bottom 39 states reported 25 or more New Deaths

Confirmed cases have spiked upwards, partially due to increased testing of asymptomatics. Most of the uptick is in the under 45 age group.  Some of the under 45s require hospitalization, but relatively few die (compared to the elderly death rate).

WSJ

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498 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 578
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
128,138 Worldometer includes upward reporting adjustment

Projection: 183,599 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
179,106 by Oct 1 UP 22,023 on June 25

IMPORTANT: Data reporting criteria have changed! Details below…
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Confirmed cases have spiked upwards, partially due to increased testing of asymptomatics. Most of the uptick is in the under 45 age group.  Some of the under 45s require hospitalization, but relatively few die (compared to the elderly death rate).

WSJ

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663 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 591
> Peaked on April 21

WSJ     See: Changes in Reporting

IMPORTANT NOTE: The June 25 spike in Daily New Deaths is attributable to changes in the criteria that some states are using to count Covid deaths. The June 25 number includes 2.111 in cumulative adjustment based on the revised criteria.

Below is our usual chart … that neutralizes the new reporting

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Cumulative Deaths 
127,640 Worldometer includes upward reporting adjustment

Projection: 184,967 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
179,106 by Oct 1 UP 22,023 on June 25

585 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 597
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
124,866 Worldometer
183,358 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
179,106 by Oct 1 UP 22,023 on June 25

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
GA (47)  TX (41)  AZ (27)

805 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 620
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
124,281 Worldometer
185,661 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
AZ (79)  TX (42)  AL (27)

866 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 621
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
123,476 Worldometer
185,533 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
Delaware (68)  AZ (42)  GA (46)  TX(33)

704 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 653
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
121,392 Worldometer
189,987 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
AZ (41)  GA (31)  TX (27)  IN (25)

747 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 666
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
120,688 Worldometer
193,231 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
NC (54)  TX (37)  AZ (32)  GA (30)

829 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 687
> Peaked on April 21