Archive for the ‘COVID-19 Tracking’ Category

Sept. 2: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 2, 2020

188,900  Deaths-to-Date

1,164 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 935    (peak 2.229 April 23)

41,979  New Cases
> 7-day average  39,319

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Sept. 1: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 1, 2020

187,215  Deaths-to-Date

455 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 938    (peak 2.229 April 23)

35,860  New Cases
> 7-day average  38,891

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Aug. 31: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 31, 2020

187,215  Deaths-to-Date

362 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 944    (peak 2.229 April 23)

32,709  New Cases
> 7-day average  39,689

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Aug. 30: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 30, 2020

186,789  Deaths-to-Date

888 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 945    (peak 2.229 April 23)

39,656  New Cases
> 7-day average  39,671

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Aug. 29: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 29, 2020

185,865  Deaths-to-Date

1,069 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 952    (peak 2.229 April 23)

47,560  New Cases
> 7-day average  40,287

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Aug. 28: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 28, 2020

184,433  Deaths-to-Date

780 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,001    (peak 2.229 April 23)

36,713  New Cases
> 7-day average  40,700

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Aug. 27: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 27, 2020

183,533  Deaths-to-Date

1169 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,028    (peak 2.229 April 23)

40718  New Cases
> 7-day average  41933

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Aug. 26: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 26, 2020

182,348  Deaths-to-Date

1,235 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,040    (peak 2.229 April 23)

39,021  New Cases
> 7-day average  42,538


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Aug. 25: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 25, 2020

181,113  Deaths-to-Date

509 Daily New Deaths     (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,057    (peak 2.229 April 23)

41,448  New Cases
> 7-day average  43,236


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Aug. 24: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 24, 2020

180,604  Deaths-to-Date

430 Daily New Deaths     (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,068    (peak 2.229 April 23)

32,718  New Cases
> 7-day average  43,117


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Aug. 23: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 23, 2020

180,174  Deaths-to-Date

974 Daily New Deaths     (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,081    (peak 2.229 April 23)

43,829  New Cases
> 7-day average  43,706


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Aug. 22: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 22, 2020

179,200  Deaths-to-Date

1,170 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,101    (peak 2.229 April 23)

50,455  New Cases
> 7-day average  45091
(below 14-day average since July 26)
> 14-day average    50,810


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Let’s end the week on a high note…

August 21, 2020

B of A says “the Coronavirus is rolling over”.
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If you’ve been following our Daily C-19 Data Dashboard, you’ve undoubtedly noticed that the 7-day moving average of confirmed cases has fallen by over 30% since its peak on July 23.

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That’s good news but the case counts– as we oft repeat —  are a very fuzzy-math number since they are impacted by the number and mix of people being tested.

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Positivity Rate

Dr. Birx says to watch the percentage of people testing positive — the so-called “positivity rate”.

It’s currently at 6.5% — about 1/3 of the rate during the NY-area outbreak.

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That’s also good news but, again, “positivity” is an equivocal metric since it’s impacted by the mix of people being tested.

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So, the B of A analysts say to focus on hospitalization rates.

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Aug. 21: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 21, 2020

177,424  Deaths-to-Date

1,090 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,009    (peak 2.229 April 23)

45,341  New Cases
> 7-day average  46,442
(below 14-day average since July 26)
> 14-day average    50,810


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Aug. 20: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 20, 2020

176,337  Deaths-to-Date

1,283 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,031    (peak 2.229 April 23)

44,957  New Cases
>  7-day average     47,701  (below 14-day average since July 26)
> 14-day average    50,810


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About Cuomo’s “beautiful” response to the coronavirus…

August 19, 2020

Hardly a model of “flattening the curve”
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Talk about Chutzpah…

NY has amassed over 30,000 covid-related deaths (about 20% of the US total) … and, almost 1,700 deaths per million residents (2nd only to NJ’s 1,800; almost quadruple Florida’s 455).

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Cuomo was bold enough to commemorate New York’s death toll (chart above) on an anatomically accurate “Victory Poster” (image below). Note the shape of the deaths’ curve.

Today, I want to make a very simple (and irrefutable point)….

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Aug. 19: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 19, 2020

175,065  Deaths-to-Date

1,349 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,072    (peak 2.229 April 23)

43,906  New Cases
> 7-day average    48,988

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Aug. 18: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 18, 2020

173,716  Deaths-to-Date

589 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,079    (peak 2.229 April 23)

40,612  New Cases
> 7-day average    50,222

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Aug. 17: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 17, 2020

173,128  Deaths-to-Date

522 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,073    (peak 2.229 April 23)

36,843  New Cases
> 7-day average    51,410

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Aug. 16: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 16, 2020

172,606  Deaths-to-Date

1,071 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,077    (peak 2.229 April 23)

53,523  New Cases
> 7-day average    52,983

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Aug. 15: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 15, 2020

171,496  Deaths-to-Date

1,081 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,060    (peak 2.229 April 23)

59,915  New Cases
> 7-day average    53,079

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Aug. 14: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 14, 2020

170,360  Deaths-to-Date

1,229 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,079    (peak 2.229 April 23)

54,148  New Cases
> 7-day average    53,454

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Aug. 13: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 13, 2020

169,121  Deaths-to-Date

1,376 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,074    (peak 2.229 April 23)

53,972  New Cases
> 7-day average    54,092

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Aug. 12: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 12, 2020

167,562  Deaths-to-Date

1,370 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,050    (peak 2.229 April 23)

52,539  New Cases
> 7-day average    54,403

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Aug. 11: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 11, 2020

166,161  Deaths-to-Date

538 Daily New Deaths     (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,025    (peak 2.229 April 23)

48,932  New Cases
> 7-day average    54,344

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The good C-19 news that the MSM will likely ignore…

August 10, 2020

Data indicates that the worst may be behind us … at least for now.
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The 7-day average for new cases has been trending down for more than two weeks, from more than 67,000 on July 22 to 47,849 on Sunday.

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There are 49,039 Covid-related patients currently hospitalized.  Hospitalizations are trending down and are below the 60,000 peaks reached on April 21 and July 27.

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The 7-day average for new reported deaths has also apparently peaked., trending from 1,246 on July 31 to the current 1,036, which is less than half of the peak reached on April 23 (2,229).

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The arrows are pointing in the right direction!

Aug. 10: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 10, 2020

165,617  Deaths-to-Date

535 Daily New Deaths     (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,036    (peak 2.229 April 23)

47,849  New Cases
> 7-day average    54,289

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Aug. 9: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 9, 2020

165,070  Deaths-to-Date

980 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,025    (peak 2.229 April 23)

54.199  New Cases
> 7-day average    54,459

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Aug. 8: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 8, 2020

164,076  Deaths-to-Date

1,272 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,047    (peak 2.229 April 23)

62,541  New Cases
> 7-day average    55,063

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How many people are walking around infected with Covid-19?

August 7, 2020

Finally, some C-19 “prevalence” estimates…
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Loyal readers know that I’ve been frustrated by the lack of practical, personally-relevant data that the public health “experts” have been gathering, analyzing and disseminating.

For example, I’d like to know how likely I am to bump into a person who is infected with C-19 if I leave my house.

Reasonable question, right?

In infectious disease speak, that number is called the “prevalence rate” … the percentage of people in an area who are infectious-likely at a specific point in time.

Current testing procedures don’t answer the question (see: Why is COVID testing still so haphazard?) … so, the “experts” fixate on metrics that are muddled and potentially misleading (see: Birx: “Key metric that I watch is the positivity rate”).

Finally, I’ve stumbled on some “machine learning” analyses that take a stab at answering my question: What’s the Covid prevalence rate?

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OK, let’s get to work…

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Aug. 7: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 7, 2020

162,804  Deaths-to-Date

1,203 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,074    (peak 2.229 April 23)

58,611  New Cases
> 7-day average    56,258

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C-19: State-level Cases, Deaths, Rates

August 6, 2020

Today, let’s drill down for some perspective…
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First, as oft-reported, NY & NJ lead the list for total deaths … the 2 states represent about 30% of the US total.

The Top 10 states account for 2/3’s of the US total.

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Let’s dig deeper…

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Aug. 6: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 6, 2020

161,601  Deaths-to-Date

1,319 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,109    (peak 2.229 April 23)

56,148  New Cases
> 7-day average    57,681

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Gov. Cuomo says to follow the data, so…

August 5, 2020

Let’s compare NY (and its North East neighbors) to the spiking  Sun Belt states. 
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According to Gov. Cuomo, the fawning  MSM and  Dr. Anthony “First Pitch” Fauci:

Gov. Cuomo did a stellar job managing the covid crisis … and, all of the Sun Belt governors (except CA’s Gov. Newsome) are reckless dufasses.

Really?

I hate to ruin a good narrative with data, but since Gov. Cuomo says to follow the numbers…

Below is a current Covid recap for 4 North East states (NY, NJ, MA, CT) … 4 Sun Belt states (TX, FL, AZ, GA) … and California.

click to enlarge chart
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Here are a couple of takeaways….

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Aug. 5: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 5, 2020

160,215  Deaths-to-Date

1,287 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,128    (peak 2.229 April 23)

52,055  New Cases
> 7-day average    59,220

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Aug. 4: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 4, 2020

158,929  Deaths-to-Date

568 Daily New Deaths    (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,131   (peak 2.229 April 23)

48,622  New Cases
> 7-day average    61,030

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Have Covid cases peaked?

August 3, 2020

Let’s drill down on some numbers today…
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For the past 2 or 3 weeks, the number of new cases reported each day seems to have peaked … maybe plateaued, maybe turned the corner and is starting to decline.

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Over the same time period, the daily death rate has trended up from its previous trough … or, as the MSM media likes to say “in recent weeks, the daily death rate has catastrophically doubled from 500 per day to over 1,000 per day”.

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Putting those numbers into context, the daily case counts have more than doubled since the prior peak in mid-April … while daily deaths have hovered around 50% of their mid-April level.

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In numbers: New cases were running at about 30,000 per day in mid-April … and there were over 2,000 new deaths each day … a ratio of deaths to cases of about 6.7%.

During the recent spike, cases have been running at about 60,000 per day … and  new deaths each day have been averaging about 1,000  … a ratio of deaths to cases of about 1.7%.

That’s a 75% drop in the deaths to cases rate.

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Keep a watchful eye on the daily death rate …

Aug.3: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 3, 2020

158,365  Deaths-to-Date

467 Daily New Deaths    (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,126   (peak 2.229 April 23)

49,038  New Cases
> 7-day average    62,880

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Aug. 2: C-19 Data Dashboard

August 2, 2020

157,898  Deaths-to-Date

1,151 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,124   (peak 2.229 April 23)

58,429  New Cases
> 7-day average    63,893

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Aug.1 C-19 Data Dashboard

August 1, 2020

156,747  Deaths-to-Date

1,462 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,089  (peak 2.229 April 23)

70,904  New Cases
> 7-day average    65,177

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July 31: C-19 Data Dashboard

July 31, 2020

155,285  Deaths-to-Date

1,465 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,051  (peak 2.229 April 23)

68,569  New Cases
> 7-day average    66,192

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July 30: C-19 Data Dashboard

July 30, 2020

153,840  Deaths-to-Date

1,520 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,004  (peak 2.229 April 23)

66,921  New Cases
> 7-day average    66,850

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July 29: C-19 Data Dashboard

July 29, 2020

152,320  Deaths-to-Date

1,245 Daily New Deaths
> 7-day average 964

64,729  New Cases
> 7-day average    66,871

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July 28: C-19 Data Dashboard

July 28, 2020

150,444  Deaths-to-Date

595 Daily New Deaths
> 7-day average 946

61,571  New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    69,186

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July 27: C-19 Data Dashboard

July 27, 2020

149,849  Deaths-to-Date Worldometer

451 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 93&2

56,130 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    68,341

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Data Source: Worldometer 
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July 26: C-19 Data Dashboard

July 26, 2020

149,398  Deaths-to-Date Worldometer

906 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 932

67,413 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    68,648

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Data Source: Worldometer 
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July 25: C-19 Data Dashboard

July 25, 2020

149,490  Deaths-to-Date Worldometer

1,193 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 914

78,009 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    68,054

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Data Source: Worldometer 
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Birx: “Key metric that I watch is the positivity rate”

July 24, 2020

In yesterday’s post, I indicated that I was very disappointed with Dr. Brix’s answers  in a TV interview with Bret Baer.

One particular question & answer still has me scratching my head:

What is the key statistic that you track?

Birx’s answer: Test positivity (i.e. ratio of positive test results to total tests). It’s the most sensitive indicator and best early warning.

With all due respect, I think that Dr. Birx is confusing “positivity” with “prevalence”.

I’m way more interested in the latter prevalence: the percentage of the population that is currently infected with the virus.

Prevalence indicates how widespread the virus is at any point in time in a selected locale.

That gives me a sense of how safe it is to leave my house: How many people am I likely to run into who have the virus and may be contagious.

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Determining prevalence requires periodic random sampling of the population.

That’s not what’s being done now.

A representative sample of the local populations is not being tested.

Why is that a problem?

The positivity rate (Birx’s key metric) is a function of who shows up to be tested.

If only people with covid-like symptoms are being tested, then of course, the positivity rate will be high.

If there’s a groundswell of asymptomatic people, the positivity rate will likely be relatively low.

My hunch: The testing “sample” is skewed to people with symptoms.

In a prior post, we reported that “Asymptomatics” are not rushing to get tested and provided some subjective reasons why that might be (e.g. no doctor referral, high hassle factor, privacy concerns).

So, positivity is, at best, a very crude measure of prevalence.

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To that point, keep in mind…

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July 24: C-19 Data Dashboard

July 24, 2020

147,297  Deaths-to-Date Worldometer

1,114 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 882

68,278 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    67,623

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Data Source: Worldometer 
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Details below…

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July 23: C-19 Data Dashboard

July 23, 2020

146,183  Deaths-to-Date Worldometer

1,239 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 860

71,907 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    68,353

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Data Source: Worldometer 
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Details below…

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