Archive for the ‘COVID-19 Tracking’ Category

July 7: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

July 7, 2020

414 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 517

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States reporting more than 25 New Deaths:
CA 76, TX 63, FL 46

===============
Cumulative Deaths 
132,979 Worldometer
===============

Confirmed Cases

> 50,586 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    48,172
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point  17,414

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WSJ

July 6: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

July 6, 2020

263 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 591

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States reporting more than 20 New Deaths:
NY 33, FL 29, TX 27, NJ 22

===============
Cumulative Deaths 
132,571 Worldometer
===============

Confirmed Cases

> 44.530 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    46,675
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414

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WSJ

July 4: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

July 4, 2020

688 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 643

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Cumulative Deaths 
132,101 Worldometer

Confirmed Cases

> 54,904 New Cases
> 7-day average 46,409 



July 3: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

July 3, 2020

> 56,939 New Cases
> 7-day average 44,276 

==============

688 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 643

image

============

Cumulative Deaths 
131,477 Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
175,168 by Oct 1 DOWN 3,938 on June 29

=============

Key States Data

> 10 states reporting 22 or more new deaths 

> Note high per capita DNDs in MA, LA & AZ

click to enlarge table
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July 2: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

July 2, 2020

> 44,766 New Cases
> 7-day average 41118 

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WSJ

Confirmed cases have spiked upwards, mostly in Southern & Western states. The majority of the uptick is in the under 45 age group.  Some of the under 45s require hospitalization, but relatively few die (compared to the elderly death rate).

==============

680 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 628

image

============

Cumulative Deaths 
130,789 Worldometer


IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
175,168 by Oct 1 DOWN 3,938 on June 29

=============

Key States Data

> 10 states reporting 23 or more new deaths 

> Note high per capita DNDs in AZ and SC

click to enlarge table
image



July 1: Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

July 1, 2020

> 41,556 New Cases
> 7-day average 39,750 

image
WSJ

Confirmed cases have spiked upwards, mostly in Southern & Western states. The majority of the uptick is in the under 45 age group.  Some of the under 45s require hospitalization, but relatively few die (compared to the elderly death rate).

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751 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 646
> Peaked on April 21

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============

Cumulative Deaths 
130,109 Worldometer
190,187 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
175,168 by Oct 1 DOWN 3,938 on June 29

=============

Key States Data

> 10 states reporting 23 or more new deaths 

> Note high per capita DNDs in NJ, AZ and LA

click to enlarge table
image



June 30: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 30, 2020

> 38,845 New Cases
> 7-day average 38,192 

image
WSJ

Confirmed cases have spiked upwards, mostly in Southern & Western states. The majority of the uptick is in the under 45 age group.  Some of the under 45s require hospitalization, but relatively few die (compared to the elderly death rate).

==============

351 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 581
> Peaked on April 21

image

============

Cumulative Deaths 
128,788 Worldometer
183,407 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
175,168 by Oct 1 DOWN 3,938 on June 29

=============

Key States Data

> 9 states reporting more than 10 new deaths 

> Note high per capita DNDs in RI, MS and MA

click to enlarge table
image



June 29: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 29, 2020

299 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 583
> Peaked on April 21

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============

Cumulative Deaths 
128,437 Worldometer
183,808 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
179,106 by Oct 1 UP 22,023 on June 25

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table
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None of the Bottom 39 states reported 25 or more New Deaths

June 28: Key NATIONAL Data

June 28, 2020

Confirmed cases have spiked upwards, partially due to increased testing of asymptomatics. Most of the uptick is in the under 45 age group.  Some of the under 45s require hospitalization, but relatively few die (compared to the elderly death rate).

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WSJ

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498 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 578
> Peaked on April 21

image

==============

Cumulative Deaths 
128,138 Worldometer includes upward reporting adjustment

Projection: 183,599 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
179,106 by Oct 1 UP 22,023 on June 25

June 27: Key NATIONAL Data

June 27, 2020

IMPORTANT: Data reporting criteria have changed! Details below…
==============

Confirmed cases have spiked upwards, partially due to increased testing of asymptomatics. Most of the uptick is in the under 45 age group.  Some of the under 45s require hospitalization, but relatively few die (compared to the elderly death rate).

image
WSJ

=============

663 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 591
> Peaked on April 21

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WSJ     See: Changes in Reporting

IMPORTANT NOTE: The June 25 spike in Daily New Deaths is attributable to changes in the criteria that some states are using to count Covid deaths. The June 25 number includes 2.111 in cumulative adjustment based on the revised criteria.

Below is our usual chart … that neutralizes the new reporting

image

==============

Cumulative Deaths 
127,640 Worldometer includes upward reporting adjustment

Projection: 184,967 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
179,106 by Oct 1 UP 22,023 on June 25

June 26: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 26, 2020

585 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 597
> Peaked on April 21

image

============

Cumulative Deaths 
124,866 Worldometer
183,358 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
179,106 by Oct 1 UP 22,023 on June 25

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table
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Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
GA (47)  TX (41)  AZ (27)

June 25: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 25, 2020

805 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 620
> Peaked on April 21

image

============

Cumulative Deaths 
124,281 Worldometer
185,661 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
AZ (79)  TX (42)  AL (27)

June 24: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 24, 2020

866 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 621
> Peaked on April 21

image

============

Cumulative Deaths 
123,476 Worldometer
185,533 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
Delaware (68)  AZ (42)  GA (46)  TX(33)

June 20: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 20, 2020

704 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 653
> Peaked on April 21

image

============

Cumulative Deaths 
121,392 Worldometer
189,987 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
AZ (41)  GA (31)  TX (27)  IN (25)

June 19: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 19, 2020

747 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 666
> Peaked on April 21

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============

Cumulative Deaths 
120,688 Worldometer
193,231 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
NC (54)  TX (37)  AZ (32)  GA (30)

June 18: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 18, 2020

829 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 687
> Peaked on April 21

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============

Cumulative Deaths 
119,941 Worldometer
193,481 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
GA (46) TX (43)  IN (28)

June 17: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 17, 2020

849 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 711
> Peaked on April 21

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============

Cumulative Deaths 
119,132 Worldometer
195,935 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15
759 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
TX (46) GA (35) NC (29) AZ (25)

June 16: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 16, 2020

430 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 746
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
118,283 Worldometer
199,597 by Oct 1ug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15
760 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table
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39 states with 25 or more New Deaths: GA (43)

June 15: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 15, 2020

327 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 879
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
117,863 Worldometer
208,320 by Oct 1ug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
169,890 by Oct 1 <= NEW END DATE
472 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table
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No Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths

June 14: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 14, 2020

707 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 879
> Peaked on April 21

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============

Cumulative Deaths 
117,526 Worldometer
215,079 by Oct 1ug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
169,890 by Oct 1 <= NEW END DATE
472 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

=============

Key States Data
FL moved up from #11 to #10 in total deaths

click to enlarge table
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Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
AZ (39) GA (28)

June 13: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 13, 2020

Note: IHME has extended its forecast period from Aug 3 to Oct 1. Details below,

790 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 949
> Peaked on April 21

image

============

Cumulative Deaths 
116,819
Worldometer
223,155 by Oct 1ug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
169,890 by Oct 1 <= NEW END DATE
474 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

=============

Key States Data
IL moved up to #4 in total deaths

click to enlarge table
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Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
GA (47), TN (27), MN (25)

click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

June 12: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 12, 2020

Note: IHME has extended its forecast period from Aug 3 to Oct 1. Details below,

899 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 984
> Peaked on April 21

image

============

Cumulative Deaths 
116,028
Worldometer
227,205 by Oct 1ug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
169,890 by Oct 1 <= NEW END DATE
476 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
GA (46), AZ (32), OH (25), TX (25), in (25)

click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

June 11: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 11, 2020

976 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,010
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
115,130
Worldometer
171,598 by Aug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
140,496 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 5,387 6/6
417 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

Bottom 39 states with 25 or  more New Deaths:
GA (44), MN (39), TX (28), AZ (25)

click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

Update: 2/3s of C-19 deaths have been 65 and over…

June 10, 2020

Not exactly new news, but for the record …

  • About 1 in 4 C-19 deaths have been folks over 85.
  • About 2 in 3 have been over 65
  • Practically no deaths for those under 35.

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Source: WSJ, CDC

June 10: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 10, 2020

Caution: 6 states (none in top 12) didn’t report any deaths
… either no new deaths to report or report just wasn’t submitted

1,093 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,033
> Peaked on April 21

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============

Cumulative Deaths 
114,154
Worldometer
173,019 by Aug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
140,496 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 5,387 6/6
462 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

Bottom 39 states with more than 25 New Deaths:
GA (77), TX (27), NC (27)

click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

June 9: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 9, 2020

Caution: 16 states (none in top 12) didn’t report any deaths
… either no new deaths to report or report just wasn’t submitted

965 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 984
> Peaked on April 21

image

============

Cumulative Deaths 
113,061
Worldometer
169,951 by Aug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
140,496 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 5,387 6/6
473 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

Bottom 39 states with more than 20 New Deaths:
GA (27), RI (26), AL (23)

click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

June 8: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATE Data

June 8, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends;
several states (none in top 12) didn’t report on Sunday.

375 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 897
> Peaked on April 21

image
REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

============

Cumulative Deaths 
112,471
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
140,496 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 5,387 6/6
481 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

June 7: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 7, 2020

727 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 938
> Peaked on April 21

image
REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

============

Cumulative Deaths 
112,101
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
140,496 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 5,387 6/6
481 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

June 6: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 6, 2020

1,201 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 976
> Peaked on April 21

image_thumb5
REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

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Cumulative Deaths 
111,374
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
135,109 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 3,142 6/2
396 = Req’d Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

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Key States Data
Michigan DNDs spike; MI moves ahead of IL

click to enlarge table
image

click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

June 5: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 5, 2020

1,031 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 977 1st time < 1,000
> Peaked on April 21

image
REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

============

Cumulative Deaths 
110,173
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
135,109 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 3,142 6/2
368 = Req’d Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

June 4: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 4, 2020

1,083 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,005
> Peaked on April 21

image
REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

============

Cumulative Deaths 
109,142
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
135,109 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 3,142 6/2
368 = Req’d Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,005 = Current 7-day moving average

171,452 = Aug 4 total @ current run rate

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

 

UPDATE: Almost half of C-19 deaths in nursing homes.

June 3, 2020

It’s now crystal clear that one of the great fails of the C-19 response was not recognizing that nursing homes would be underprepared hot spots … and, rather than taking all-out action to contain the carnage, some states directed Covid patients back to nursing homes, inflaming the outbreak.

How bad has the carnage been?

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) issued a survey  this week reporting 25,923 nursing home death tied to Covid-19 and a death rate of 2.7% (the ratio of deaths to  the number of nursing home residents).

But, …

  • CMS only surveyed federally regulated nursing homes … slightly more than 1/2 of the total number of nursing homes in the US
  • Only 80% of the surveyed nursing homes replied to the survey
  • The survey only asked for death after May 6 (huh?)
  • Other LTC (long-term-care) facilities — e.g. assisted living, veterans homes — were not surveyed.
  • Only That’s about 25% of all Covid-related deaths — a big number that comes with a couple of big “buts” — it didn’t cover long-term-care (LTC) facilities except for nursing homes, only 80% of nursing homes replied to the CMS survey … and the survey only asked about deaths after May 6 (huh?).

Bottom line: Bottom line: The CMS survey way understates the number of LTC deaths..

Red shading indicates nursing home hot spots
image

USA total pegs the number of deaths at 40,600.

A WSJ tally of state data totals more than 42,000 Covid-19-associated deaths in long-term-care facilities.

And, the WSJ says that its count  “likely undercounts the full impact of the outbreak because of reporting lags and incomplete information from some states”.

How much is the undercount?

(more…)

June 3: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

June 3, 2020

1,134 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,062
> Peaked on April 21

image
REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
108,059
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
380 = Req’d Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,062 = Current 7-day moving average

174,965 = Aug 4 total @ current run rate

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click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

June 3: C-19 Key STATES Data

June 3, 2020

Total US Deaths = 108,059 327 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 46,221  43% of US Total
   NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 84,281 78% of US Total
  Top 12 Average = 516 Deaths per Million
  Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 139 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge
image

C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

June 2: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

June 2, 2020

Apparently due to weekend turmoil, many states did not report weekend COVID data.

730 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,017
> Peaked on April 21

111 NY+NJ+CT 15% of US Total

image_thumb2
REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
106,925
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
391 = Req’d Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,014 = Current 7-day moving average

172,022 = Aug 4 total @ current run rate

=============
click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

June 1: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

June 1, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends, “catching-up” on Mon & Tues

Apparently due to weekend turmoil, many states did not report weekend COVID data.

638 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,073
> Peaked on April 21

195 NY+NJ+CT 30% of US Total

image
REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
106,195
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
396 = Req’d Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,078 = Current 7-day moving average

175,949 = Aug 4 total @ current run rate

=============
click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

May 31: Key NATIONAL Data

May 31, 2020

1,015 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,131
> Peaked on April 21

223 NY+NJ+CT 22% of US Total

image_thumb2
REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
105,557
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
400 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,131 = Current 7-day moving average

180,203 = Aug 4 total @ current run rate

=============
click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

May 30: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 30, 2020

1,208 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,168
> Peaked on April 21

320 NY+NJ+CT 21% of US Total

image
REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
104,542
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
403 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,168 = Current 7-day moving average

183,966 = Implied Aug 4 total @ current run rate

=============
click to see C-19 Key STATES DataC-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

May 30: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 30, 2020

Total US Deaths = 104,542 317 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 45,424  44% of US Total
   NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 81,961 78% of US Total
  Top 12 Average = 516 Deaths per Million
  Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 132 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

=============
State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge
image

C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May 29: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 29, 2020

1,227 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,202
> Peaked on April 21

255 NY+NJ+CT 21% of US Total

image
REFERENCE: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
103,334
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
414 = Implied Daily New Deaths average until Aug 4

Benchmark Cume US Death Projections
1,227 = Current 7-day moving average

188,000 = Implied Aug 4 total @ current run rate

=============
click to see C-19 Key STATES DataC-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

May 29: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 29, 2020

Total US Deaths = 103,334 313 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 45,104  44% of US Total
   NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 81,200 79% of US Total
  Top 12 Average = 511 Deaths per Million
  Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 129 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

=============
State-by-State Data – Top 12
PA up to #4 surpassing MICH

click chart to enlarge
image

C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

 

I tested negative, so I’m not infected, right?

May 28, 2020

Yesterday, we reached into our toolkit and pulled out behavioral economics and Bayesian Inference.

Our big conclusion in that post was that if C-19 tests are 90% accurate and 5% of the people in our reference group are walking around infected, then roughly 2/3’s of all people who get positive test results are not infected … they’re so-called false positives.

Now, let’s change one of our assumptions.

In the prior post, we assumed that we were asymptomatic, have been sheltering-in-place (i.e. minimal social contacts outside of our homes) and don’t work in a COVID-prevalent environment … and we used 5% as our base rate (of virus prevalence among our reference group).

Now, let’s assume that the reference group we’re working with is elderly, has a comorbid medical history of respiratory and heart problems and is experiencing COVID-like symptoms (high fever, persistent cough), have had contact with an infected person.  That’s essentially the only group that initially qualified for coronavirus testing.  Lets, assume that 75% of the people in that reference group are, in fact, infected with the virus.

Here’s the Bayesian results chart would look like:

image

The question: what is the likelihood that the people who fit this profile are correctly diagnosed as having the virus (or not)?

(more…)

May 28: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 28, 2020

Media reports Memorial Day spikes in cases … stay focused on Daily New Deaths. This post explains why…

MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

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1,482 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,225
> Peaked on April 21

349 NY+NJ+CT 24% of US Total

image

Cumulative Deaths 
102,107
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
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click to see C-19 Key STATES DataC-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

May 28: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 28, 2020

Total US Deaths = 102,107 3309 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 44,500  44% of US Total
   NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 80,429 79% of US Total
  Top 12 Average = 523 Deaths per Million
  Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 123 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge 
image 

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May 27: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 27, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends, “catching-up” on Mon & Tues

Media reports Memorial Day spikes in cases … stay focused on Daily New Deaths.  This post explains why…

MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

=============

820 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,234
> Peaked on April 21

226 NY+NJ+CT 28% of US Total

image

Cumulative Deaths 
100,625
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
131,967 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 11,390 5/25
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click to see C-19 Key STATES DataC-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

May 27: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 27, 2020

Total US Deaths = 100,625 305 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 44,500  44% of US Total
   NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 79,430 79% of US Total
  Top 12 Average = 516 Deaths per Million
  Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 120 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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State-by-State Data – Top 12
Ohio replaced Indiana in the Top 12 on May 25

click chart to enlarge 
image 

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 26, 2020

Stay focused on the number of Daily New Deaths!
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Cutting to the chase, I’ve concluded that the most reliable number being reported is the number of COVID-19 related “Daily New Deaths”.

According to Worldometers – the best data aggregation site that I’ve found so far – there have been almost 100,000 COVID-19  related deaths in the U.S. so far.

image

Keep in mind that “COVID-related” means “COVID present”, not necessarily “COVID caused” … and that, along the way, “present” was redefined from “confirmed” to “presumed”

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From an analytical perspective, the chart of total deaths will, by definition, never crest and turn down. It’s rate of growth will eventually slow down, though, but that’s hard to read that from a chart.

So, I think it’s more useful to look at “Daily New Deaths” …. if that number keeps going up then, by definition, we haven’t turned the corner.

When Daily New Deaths start trending down then, by definition, we have turned the corner.

Here’s our charting of what Worldometers has reported since the first coronavirus cases were identified.

image

The dotted line is the 7-day moving average which smooths some of the day-to-day “noise” in the data.

Based on the 7-day moving average, it appears that the rate of growth of COVID-19 deaths trended downward since about April 21.

Bottom line: If you want to know if we’re starting to turn the corner, keep your eye on the number of COVID-19 related “Daily New Deaths”.

Choose the level of aggregation based on your specific interest … world, nation or state.

Note: I’ll be focusing on the U.S. national number … and the national number less the 3 state hot spots: NY, NJ, CT

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More specifically, why “Daily New Deaths”?

(more…)

May 26: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 26, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends, “catching-up” on Mon & Tues

Media reports Memorial Day spikes in cases … stay focused on Daily New Deaths.  This post explains why…

MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

=============

1,112 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,261
> Peaked on April 21

193 NY+NJ+CT 31% of US Total

image

Cumulative Deaths 
99,805
Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18
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click to see C-19 Key STATES DataC-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

May 26: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 26, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Total US Deaths = 99,805 302 per Million

NY+NJ+CT = 44,274  44% of US Total
   NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population

Top 12 Total = 78,972 79% of US Total
  Top 12 Average = 513 Deaths per Million
  Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population

Bottom 39 Average = 118 Deaths/Million
For details see Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

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State-by-State Data – Top 12
Ohio replaces Indiana in the Top 12

click chart to enlarge 
image 

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Our slant on last week’s COVID news…

May 25, 2020

Here are links … just in case you missed any posts
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Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39
Which are the ones to watch?

UPDATE: Here we go again … “Science” takes still another u-turn.
It’s a bigger deal than whether we need to wipe down our counters and packages.

Shocker: “Asymptomatics” not rushing to get tested.

Would I take HCQ like Trump is doing?

NYU: Hydroxychloroquine cocktail cuts death rate 44%

COVID’s Impact: Geographically concentrated in only 30 US counties…
Great analysis from the researchers at the Heritage Foundation

Our slant on the prior week’s COVID-19 news … week of May 10