Archive for the ‘COVID-19 Tracking’ Category
May 7, 2020
2,524 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,881 trending down
> 3-day trend 2,066 DOWNWARD
1,117 NY+NJ+CT 44% of US Total
NY “found” 1,700 “presumed” cases.
See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?
Cumulative Deaths
74,799 Worldometer
37,246 NY+NJ+CT 50% of US Total
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<
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click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
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Related Posts:
Flattening the COVID-19 curve
About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths
Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | Leave a Comment »
May 6, 2020
In mid-April, we pointed out the obvious: the operative projection at the time (60,000 deaths by Aug. 4) — which was modeled by IHME, touted by Pres. Trump, and head-nodded by Drs. Fauci & Birx — was arithmetically unlikely.
Our simple logic: At the time, the US had already had about 40,000 deaths and was running at a rate of about 2,000 new deaths each day. To stay under 60,000, the average daily death rate would need to drop to 200. That didn’t seem likely.
And, we pointed out that IHME routinely reported a wide confidence interval (aka. zone of uncertainty) that ranged up to 140,000.
The new 134.475 projection falls within that confidence level.
Add to the mix some data mumbo-jumbo: There have been some definitional and procedural changes that have boosted the reported number of deaths.
(more…)
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May 6, 2020
Consecutive 5-day down streak ENDED
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2,350 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,875 trending down
> 3-day trend 1,858 DOWNWARD
678 NY+NJ+CT 29% of US Total
346 Pennsylvania
See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?
Cumulative Deaths
72,275 Worldometer
33,573 NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<
Now, IHME forecasts for the US are based on a new hybrid model.
(The original model) is now combined with a disease transmission model.
The latest US forecasts are based on four key determinants estimated from data: mobility, population density, testing, and temperature.
The new model captures the impact of changes in social distancing mandates, changes in mobility, and the impact of testing and contact tracing.
It enables predicting a resurgence when social distancing mandates are relaxed.
Source: IHME
Note: The revised forecast implies that new deaths average ~ 650 per day from now until Aug. 4. Current 7-day moving average is 1,875; 3-day moving average is 1,381.
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click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:
Flattening the COVID-19 curve
About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths
Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | Leave a Comment »
May 5, 2020
Major upward revision of IHME forecast
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1,324 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> DOWN for 5 consecutive days
> 7-day trend 1,875 trending down
> 3-day trend 1,383 DOWNWARD
442 NY+NJ+CT 33% of US Total
See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?
Cumulative Deaths
69,925 Worldometer
35,451 NY+NJ+CT 51% of US Total
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<
Starting today, IHME forecasts for the US are based on a new hybrid model.
(The original model) is now combined with a disease transmission model.
The latest US forecasts are based on four key determinants estimated from data: mobility, population density, testing, and temperature.
The new model captures the impact of changes in social distancing mandates, changes in mobility, and the impact of testing and contact tracing.
It enables predicting a resurgence when social distancing mandates are relaxed.
Source: IHME
Note: The revised forecast implies that new deaths average ~ 650 per day from now until Aug. 4. Current 7-day moving average is 1,875; 3-day moving average is 1,381.
=============
click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:
Flattening the COVID-19 curve
About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths
Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | 1 Comment »
May 4, 2020
Tests, Confirmed Cases, Deaths
Cumulative Totals and Key Ratios
Data as of May 3, 2020
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Now that we seem to be heading down the backside of “the curve” and are starting to re-open the economy … I thought it would be a good time to heatmap where states stand relative to each other along the key variables: number of tests, confirmed cases and deaths … and, to “normalize” the data by adding some key ratios.
For example, here are the 10 states with the highest number of deaths per million … and the 10 with the lowest number of deaths per million:
>> Click for a PDF that displays all of the data <<
The reference guide includes sections sorted by:
- State name (alphabetical)
- Tests per million (population)
- Confirmed cases per million (population)
- Ratio: confirmed (positive) cases to the total number of tests
- Total deaths to date
- Deaths per million
- Ratio:deaths per confirmed (positive) test
All data is sourced from Worldometer as of May 3 2020.
Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19, COVID-19 Tracking | 48 Comments »
April 24, 2020
Today’s Headlines
Death toll over 50,000
2,562 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
IHME forecast 67,641 by Aug. 4
Must Read: About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths…
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KEY CHART: Daily New Deaths (DNDs)
2,562 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 2,229
967 in NY+NJ+CT 38% of US
Cumulative U.S. Deaths
50,243 Worldometer
49,963 JHU
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
67,641 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 1,665 on 4/22
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STATE DEATHS Worldometer
Summary
- NY+NJ+CT = 27,928 56% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
- Top 12 Total = 42,376 84% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 268 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 46 Deaths/Million
- Maryland 748 +50
State-by-State Data – Top 12
(more…)
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April 23, 2020
Today’s Headlines
2,338 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
IHME forecast UPPED to 67,641
Maryland into Top 12; Washington out
Must Read: About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths…
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KEY CHART: Daily New Deaths (DNDs)
2,338 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 2,174
1,092 in NY+NJ+CT 47% of US
Cumulative U.S. Deaths
47,681 Worldometer
46,785 JHU
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
67,641 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 1,665 on 4/22
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STATE DEATHS Worldometer
Summary
- NY+NJ+CT = 26,961 57% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
- Top 12 Total = 40,548 85% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 257 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 39 Deaths/Million
- Maryland into Top 12; Washington out
State-by-State Data – Top 12
(more…)
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April 22, 2020
A very bad day…
> Highest Daily Deaths toll so far
> IHME forecast UPPED to 65,976
Must Read: About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths…
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Today’s Headline
DNDs UP from prior day
IHME forecast UP to 65,976
KEY CHART: Daily New Deaths (DNDs)
2,824 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> UP from prior days
> Highest DNDs total so far
> 7-day average 2,214
1,232 in NY+NJ+CT 44% of US
> UP 44% from prior day
Cumulative U.S. Deaths
45,343 Worldometer
45,075 JHU
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
65,976 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 5,668 on 4/21
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STATE DEATHS Worldometer
Summary
- NY+NJ+CT = 25,869 57% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
- Top 12 Total = 38,682 85% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 242 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 39 Deaths/Million
- MD 562 Total Deaths +46 DNDs
State-by-State Data – Top 12
(more…)
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April 21, 2020
Must Read: About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths…
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Today’s Headline
DNDs UP from prior day
7-day moving average 2,156 DND
KEY CHART: Daily New Deaths (DNDs)
1,954 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
856 in NY+NJ+CT 44% of US
Cumulative U.S. Deaths
42,513 Worldometer
42,364 JHU
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,308 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 8,533 on 4/16
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STATE DEATHS Worldometer
Summary
- NY+NJ+CT = 24,553 58% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
- Top 12 Total = 36,416 86% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 228 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 36 Deaths/Million
- MD 516 Total Deaths +30 DNDs
State-by-State Data – Top 12
(more…)
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April 20, 2020
Trending: WaPo: “A glaring scientific breakdown at the CDC”
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Today’s Headline
DNDs down 16% from prior day
3-day moving average DOWN
KEY CHART: Daily New Deaths (DNDs)
1,550 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
800 in NY+NJ+CT 52% of Total US
DOWN significantly 2 days in a row
Cumulative U.S. Deaths
40,565 Worldometer
40,689 JHU
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,308 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 8,533 on 4/16
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STATE DEATHS Worldometer
Summary
- NY+NJ+CT = 23,627 59% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
- Top 12 Total = 34,821 86% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 218 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 34 Deaths/Million
- MD 486 Total Deaths +23 DNDs
State-by-State Data – Top 12
(more…)
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April 19, 2020
DNDs down 27% from prior day
3-day moving average DOWN
KEY CHART: Daily New Deaths (DNDs)
1,867 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
1,347 in NY+NJ+CT 53% of Total US
DOWN significantly from prior day
Cumulative U.S. Deaths
39,015 Worldometer
39,090 JHU
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,308 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 8,533 on 4/16
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STATE DEATHS Worldometer
Summary
- NY+NJ+CT = 22,827 59% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
- Top 12 Total = 33,520 86% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 210 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
Bottom 39 Average = 32 Deaths/Million
- MD 463 Total Deaths +38 DNDs
State-by-State Data – Top 12
(more…)
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April 18, 2020
KEY CHART: Daily New Deaths
2,535 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
UP slightly from prior day; level w/ prior 3
1,347 in NY+NJ+CT 53% of Total US
UP slightly from prior day
Cumulative U.S. Deaths
37.175 Worldometer
37,079 JHU
Note: Both Worldometer and JHU have “absorbed” the NY addition of “presumed” C-19 deaths. So, there is a step increase in cumulative deaths (starting on April 16). Daily New Death counts are not effected.
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,308 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 8,533 on 4/16
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STATE DEATHS Worldometer
Summary
- NY+NJ+CT = 22,007 58% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
- Top 12 Total = 31,996 86% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 201 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
- MD 425 Total Deaths +76 DNDs
State-by-State Data – Top 12
(more…)
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April 17, 2020
This morning, the WSJ reported that — based on their analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University:
In the 24 hours ending at 8 p.m. Eastern time Thursday, 4,591 people have died from Covid-19,
The prior record was 2,569 on Wednesday.
Worldometer – my primary source for C-19 fatality numbers – reported 2,179 Daily New Deaths.
So, based on 2 credible sources, C-19 deaths yesterday either increased by 2,022 (to 4.591) … or, they decreased by 390 (to 2,179).
That difference between estimates certainly falls into the category of “statistically significant” … especially hours after a government plan is announced to re-open the country for commerce.
I have greater confidence in Worldometer’s data analysis, so I’m going with their 2,179 DND number (with more explanation of the black bar to follow later):
My conclusion: Yesterday’s Daily New Deaths declined slightly from the prior day. … but the 3-day moving average is trending up slightly.
But, there’s a looming question:
What the hell is going on?
(more…)
Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | 2 Comments »
April 16, 2020
KEY CHART: Daily New Deaths
2,490 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
Level from prior day
1,103 in NY+NJ+CT 46% of Total US
DOWN slightly from prior day
Cumulative U.S. Deaths
28,554 Worldometer
30,985 JHU
Note: NYC added 3,700 “presumed” covid cases. It appears that JHU has added (some of) those deaths to their numbers, but that Worldometer has not (to preserve continuity with prior data). We’re trying to unscramble the impact on the historical comparisons. For now, we’re just going with the Worldometer data.
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
68,841 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 8,436 on 4/13
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STATE DEATHS Worldometer
Summary
- NY+NJ+CT = 15,610 55% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
- Top 12 Total = 24,115 85% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 151 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
- MD 349 Total Deaths +47 DNDs
State-by-State Data – Top 12
(more…)
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April 13, 2020
Recommended Reading:
Flattening the COVID-19 curve
How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?
Remember when Cuomo (and the media) trashed Trump for not believing the models?
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TODAY”S DATA
1,635 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
2 Consecutive decreasing days
1,055 in NY+NJ+CT 65% of Total US
Pivotal question: Past the apex?
IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
1,983 on April 10 Prior forecast 2,212
Cumulative U.S. Deaths
22,215 Worldometer
22,109 JHU
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,415 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 130 on 4/12
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STATE DEATHS Worldometer
Summary
- NY+NJ+CT = 12,289 55% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
- Top 12 Total = 18,745 84% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 117 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
- MD 235 Total Deaths 29 DNDs
State-by-State Data – Top 12
(more…)
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April 12, 2020
Recommended Reading:
How strictly are you complying to stop the spread?
What you need to know about the IHME Model…
Why have the model’s forecasts dropped so much?
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TODAY”S DATA
1,819 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
5 Consecutive days ~ 2,000 DND
1,,077 in NY+NJ+CT 59% of Total US
Pivotal question: An apex or a plateau?
IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
2,212 on April 12 Revised DOWN 918 on 4/7
Cumulative U.S. Deaths
20,580 Worldometer
20,608 JHU
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,415 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 21,351 on 4/7
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STATE DEATHS Worldometer
Summary
- NY+NJ+CT = 11,304 55% of US Total
NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
- Top 12 Total = 17,371 84% of US Total
Top 12 Average = 109 Deaths per Million
Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
- MA, IL moving up in ranking
- Indiana is #13 with 330 Deaths +30 DND
- MD 206 Total Deaths 35 DNDs
State-by-State Data – Top 12
(more…)
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April 8, 2020
Cumulative U.S. Deaths
12,857 Worldometer
12,911 JHU
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,415 by Aug. 4 Rev. DOWN 21,351 on 4/7
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1,970 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
See technical note at end of post
Big spike up in DNDs
1,031 in NY+NJ+CT
IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
2,212 on April 12 Revised DOWN 918 on 4/7
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State-by-State Detail
(more…)
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April 7, 2020
We opted for a “doctor supervised off-label test” instead of a randomized control test. Here’s why.
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Dr. Fauci has consistently dissed the use of hydroxychloroquine because there hasn’t been a large-scale, double-blind control test proving its efficacy.
There are plenty of field reports, patient testimonials and doctors prescribing the drug “off-label” (or even using it themselves as a prophylactic).
But, Dr. Fauci advises that we all just chill for a year or so until the “proper” scientific testing is done.
That point-of-view hits close to home.
Here’s a very personal story…
(more…)
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April 6, 2020
Cumulative U.S. Deaths
9,620 Worldometer
9,648 JHU
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
93,531 by August 4
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1,166 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
See technical note below chart
IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
2,644 on April 16
Dotted red line is 3-day moving average
Technical note: Worldometer’s calculation of DNDs sometimes falls out of sync with their reporting of Total Deaths. Probably due to reporting issues on granular state data. We are validity check the Worldometer Total Deaths against the JHU reporting … and do our own calculation of DNDs by comparing day-to-day Total Death numbers.
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State-by-State Data
(more…)
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April 5, 2020
Cumulative U.S. Deaths
8,454 Worldometer
8,503 JHU
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
93,531 by August 4
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1,051 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
See technical note below chart
IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
2,644 on April 16
Technical note: Worldometer’s calculation of DNDs has fallen out of sync with their reporting of Total Deaths. Probably due to reporting issues on granular state data. Starting today, we are validity checking the Worldometer Total Deaths against the JHU reporting … and doing our own calculation of DNDs by comparing day-to-day Total Death numbers.
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State-by-State Data
(more…)
Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | 1 Comment »
