Taking a stress-reduction break … back next week.
Bethany Beach, Delaware
============
Follow on Twitter @KenHoma
#HomaFiles
Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category
Beach Week …
June 20, 2022Dilbert asks: "Who wants a bully in the White House?"
March 14, 2022Is it really better to have a groveler-in-chief dealing with our adversaries?
============
Over the weekend, Bill Maher made news by asking a simple question:
Maher’s question reminded me of the above headlined post from the HomaFiles archives, circa 2016 …
=============
During the 2016 Presidential campaign, cartoonist Scott Adams hit the nail on the head on his Dilbert blog …
Adams observed that, during the campaign, Hillary’s constant refrain was that we can’t have a loose cannon bully in the White House.
Of course, Dems and their media friends kept that notion front-burnered during the campaign.
======
Adams cut to the chase on on “Dangerous Trump”:
MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned a COVID-19 corner?
January 6, 2022Stay focused on the number of Daily New Deaths!
==============
This is a relevant excerpt from a long ago prior post (May 2020)
==============
From the begining of the Covid pandemic, I’ve focused on Daily New Deaths (DND) as my key metric.
Why is that?
First, saving lives is our paramount objective, right? If yes, caused fatalities should be our focus metric.
Second, I think that most other metrics that are being bandied about are quite problematic.
Counting deaths — while a bit macabre — is a more reliable process than counting, say, the number of infected people.
Sure, I’d like to know the number of people infected with COVID-19.
But, unless everybody — or at least a large statistical sample — is tested, the number of confirmed cases is subject to disqualifying statistical issues.
Most notably, who is being tested and who isn’t? What about the asymptomatic “hidden carriers”? What are the criteria for confirming a COVID infection? What about false positives (and false negatives)? How to standardize the reporting processes across states? How to keep governmental units from fudging the numbers?
Importantly, if testing increases, then confirmed cases goes up.
Is that an indication of more virus spread or just a reflection of more testing?
I sure can’t tell … and, I doubt that anybody else can with any degree of reliability.
=============
Again, counting fatalities is probably the most reliable metric.
Fatalities are discrete events – so they’re countable.
Still, even deaths may have some counting imperfections.
For example, many non-hospitalized people die and are buried without autopsies. Some may be uncounted COVID victims.
On the other hand, some people may die and be diagnosed with COVID infections. That doesn’t necessarily mean that COVID killed them. That’s especially true with COVID since it’s most deadly for people with other health problems.
And, as we stated above, the definition of COVID deaths has changed over the course of the pandemic:
COVID-related” means “COVID present”, not necessarily “COVID caused” … and , along the way, “present” was redefined from “confirmed” to “presumed”
Further, COVID deaths are a function of two drivers: the incidence of the virus … and, the nature, level and timing of therapeutic healthcare.
Said differently, more effective therapeutic healthcare will dampen the death toll.
==============
Bottom line: “Daily New Deaths” is the number we should be watching.
If it shows a consistent downward trend, then we’ll know we’ve turned the corner.
If it stays stable (at a high level) or turns upward, we’ll know that we’re in deep yogurt.
===============
Next up: So, how are we doing?
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January 1, 2022Happy Thanksgiving !
November 25, 2021It has been a tough couple of years.
So, it’s a good time to focus on the many reasons we still have to be thankful.
Does America have a “moderate middle” any more?
November 10, 2021Maybe my sample isn’t projectable…
===============
I recently had a very encouraging experience when I went to one of my granddaughter’s cross-country running meets.
There were 20 Baltimore area teams … about 400 runners … most of whom had family & friends there to root them on … a very diverse group.
Everybody seemed to be having good family time … most adults were encouraging all the runners … regardless of their team affiliation, their speed and position or their race … no chatter about CRT or any other political hot buttons.
Everything seemed so normal.
When I told my story to some friends, they opined that there’s still a big group of people “in the middle” … far away from the loud extremist positions … more concerned about family life and community than political scuffling.
That meshed with my cross country experience but, of course, I had to get analytical …
==============
The Pew Research Center has tracked party identity and ideology for decades.
One way they do it is by scoring the Republicans and Democrats on a 10-item scale of political values … more liberal values sort to the left … more conservative values sort to the right.
Here’s how America looked about 15 years ago … in 2004.
Democrats clustered to the left (the light blue hump), Republicans clustered to the right (the red hump ).
The dark blue hump in the middle is the moderate middle … consisting of both Democrats and Republicans who shar similar values.
Back in 2004, both the Democratic and Republican humps peaked relatively close to the middle … and the moderate middle was sizable.
==============
Now, fast forward to 2017 — the latest Pew survey.
Democrats cluster further to the left, Republicans cluster further to the right.
The distance between the peak in the Dem’ hump and the peak in the GOP’s hump widened.
Less than 10 percent in each party overlaps ideologically with the other side.
So, the moderate middle substantially shrank.
=============
What has happened since 2017?
While Pew hasn’t published a directly comparable study since 2017, they did run a poll that asked whether the country is more or less divided before and after the pandemic.
The bottom line: Most people believe their society is now more divided than before the pandemic.
Said differently, the moderate middle is continuing to shrink … and is being swamped by the the increasingly distanced partisan groups.
Apparently, my real life sample isn’t projectable.
That’s sad.
Maybe some day.
Hopefully sooner rather than later.
===============
Click here to see the complete evolution in the Pew graphic from 2004 to 2017 … with some situational commentary.
.
Dilbert asks: “Who wants a bully in the White House?”
August 24, 2021Is it really better to have a groveler-in-chief dealing with our adversaries?
=============
Watching Biden Biden grovel to (1) the Taliban, asking them to please let Americans leave Afghanistan after his botched troop draw down, (2) Putin, asking for permission to establish air bases in Asia … and being told to pond sand, (3) OPEC, asking them to boost oil production to offset the forced cut in U.S. oil production and ease gas pump inflation, I recalled a prior (and once again on-point and timely) HomaFiles post.
=============
During the 2016 Presidential campaign, cartoonist Scott Adams hit the nail on the head on his Dilbert blog, …
Adams observed that, during the campaign, Hillary’s constant refrain was that we can’t have a loose cannon bully in the White House.
Of course, Dems and their media friends kept that notion front-burnered during the campaign.
======
Adams cut to the chase on on “Dangerous Trump”:
On this Memorial Day …
May 30, 2021 Remember all who gave their lives on our behalf
… and thank those who are serving us now.
America’s political polarization in 4 charts …
April 29, 2021It’s no secret that American politics has become increasingly – and maybe, irreversibly – polarized.
Biden lays it all off on Trump … totally ignoring the role that he and Obama played.
Let’s look at some inconvenient facts and put them in perspective…
=========
Way back in 2014, Meet the Press host Chuck Todd observed:
Polarization is no longer just polluting the system — it’s paralyzing it.
The deepening divide between the right and the left has largely hollowed out the center of American politics.
Gone are the politicians who once occupied the large “middle” and the voters who once gravitated to them.
Todd’s observations were true then, and they’re true now.
=========
The Pew Research Center has tracked party identity and ideology for decades.
One way they do it is by scoring the Republicans and Democrats on a 10-item scale of political values.
Based on the latest Pew data (from 2017), here’s where we stand:
=========
What the chart means …
Democrats cluster to the left, Republicans cluster to the right.
Less than 10 percent in each party overlaps ideologically with the other side.
That’s where we are.
How did we get here?
How will we know when we’re near-normal again?
April 13, 2021Stay focused on the number of Daily New Deaths!
==============
Now that the country is getting vaccinated at a rapid clip, everybody is asking the same question: When can we resume “normal” life again?
The verbiage from the political-scientists and pundits ranges from ‘pretty soon’ to ‘probably never’.
Thanks guys.
Is herd immunity within reach or asymptotically impossible because of ”vaccine hesitancy”?
How many covid survivors now have “natural immunity”?
How long does natural or vaccine immunity last? Weeks? Month? Years?
Case counts spike then drop like a rock … with “scientific” explanations mimicking financial analysts’ head-scratching rationales for why the market went up (or down) each day.
My advice from the get-go has been — in the words of Nate Silver — to ignore the noise and focus on the signal … the covid-related death count.
Back in Jan.-Feb. 2020, Dr. Fauci was saying:
This not a major threat for the people of the United States, and this is not something that the citizens of the United States right now should be worried about.
I bought in to Fauci’s read of the situation, but said that I’d start worrying when daily covid deaths surpassed those of a a bad flu year.
The were about 80,000 flu-related fatalities in worst recent flu year. Source
Spread across the entire year, that works out to about 250 deaths per day; spread across the usual 4 month flu season, that’s about 750 deaths per day.
Of course, we blew past those numbers … and stayed at sky-high levels for most of the past year.
Now, we’re coming back down … with enough people vaccinated or naturally immune that the trend and levels are likely to stick.
So, my advice: Take case counts with a grain of salt, be encouraged by vaccination rates and stay focused on the averaged number of daily new deaths (DNDs).
Based on the flu benchmark, when the weekly average of DNDs drops below 750, we’re probably near-normal … when it drops below 250, then giddyup … we’re there!
===============
For more detail. see: MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned a COVID-19 corner?
MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned a COVID-19 corner?
April 13, 2021Stay focused on the number of Daily New Deaths!
==============
This is a relevant excerpt from a long ago prior post (May 2020)
==============
Why have I centered on Daily New Deaths (DND) as my key metric?
First, saving lives is our paramount objective, right? If yes, it should be our focus metric.
Second, I think that most other metrics that are being bandied about are quite problematic.
Counting deaths — while a bit macabre — is a more reliable process than counting, say, the number of infected people.
Sure, I’d like to know the number of people infected with COVID-19.
But, unless everybody — or at least a large statistical sample — is tested, the number of confirmed cases is subject to lots of statistical issues.
Most notably, who is being tested and who isn’t? What about the asymptomatic “hidden carriers”? What are the criteria for confirming a COVID infection? What about false positives (and false negatives)? How to standardize the reporting processes across states? How to keep governmental units from fudging the numbers?
Importantly, if testing increases, then confirmed cases goes up.
Is that an indication of more virus spread or just a reflection of more testing?
I sure can’t tell.
=============
Again, counting fatalities is probably the most reliable metric.
Fatalities are discrete events – so they’re countable.
Still, even deaths may have some counting imperfections.
For example, many non-hospitalized people die and are buried without autopsies. Some may be uncounted COVID victims.
On the other hand, some people may die and be diagnosed with COVID infections. That doesn’t necessarily mean that COVID killed them. That’s especially true with COVID since it’s most deadly for people with other health problems.
And, as we stated above, the definition of COVID deaths has changed:
COVID-related” means “COVID present”, not necessarily “COVID caused” … and that, along the way, “present” was redefined from “confirmed” to “presumed”
Further, COVID deaths are a function of two drivers: the incidence of the virus … and, the nature, level and timing of therapeutic healthcare.
Said differently, more effective therapeutic healthcare will dampen the death toll.
==============
Bottom line: “Daily New Deaths” is the number we should be watching.
If it shows a consistent downward trend, then we’ll know we’ve turned the corner.
If it stays stable (at a high level) or turns upward, we’ll know that we’re in deep yogurt.
How much have students fallen behind during the school’s shutdown?
March 5, 2021Spring 2020 Forecast: The COVID schools’ shutdown compounded by the inevitable “summer slide”.
=============
Originally posted on July 20, 2020 … and relevant today!
In his 2008 bestseller Outliers: The Story of Success, Malcolm Gladwell popularized the notion of an educational “summer slide”.
Referencing a tracking study of Baltimore City Public School students, Gladwell highlighted evidence that students’ standardized test scores in the fall were generally lower than their scores in the prior spring.
His observation: “Between school years, students’ accumulated learning is diminished”.
In other words, there is a statistically significant “forget factor” if learning isn’t reinforced and edged forward with summer enrichment activities (think: summer school, educational camps, field trips, parental tutoring).
The summer slide is most pronounced for poor students who lack summer enrichment opportunities … and for all students in math.
The black line below illustrates the math score drop-off for typical 3rd, 4th and 5th graders. On average, the typical summer slide in math skills is about 2%. That is, students are 2% less proficient in math after their summer vacations.
Source: WSJ
To make matters worse, note the red line on the chart … it illustrates the projected drop-off due to this year’s virus-induced school closings.
It’s estimated that students will be about 5% less proficient in math than they were when the schools closed … the combined effect of lesser learning during the schools’ shut-down period and an extended summer slide (with many schools declaring no mas in early June) .
More specifically…
How much have students fallen behind during the school’s shutdown?
February 26, 2021Spring 2020 Forecast: The COVID schools’ shutdown compounded by the inevitable “summer slide”.
=============
Originally posted on July 20, 2020 … and relevant today!
In his 2008 bestseller Outliers: The Story of Success, Malcolm Gladwell popularized the notion of an educational “summer slide”.
Referencing a tracking study of Baltimore City Public School students, Gladwell highlighted evidence that students’ standardized test scores in the fall were generally lower than their scores in the prior spring.
His observation: “Between school years, students’ accumulated learning is diminished”.
In other words, there is a statistically significant “forget factor” if learning isn’t reinforced and edged forward with summer enrichment activities (think: summer school, educational camps, field trips, parental tutoring).
The summer slide is most pronounced for poor students who lack summer enrichment opportunities … and for all students in math.
The black line below illustrates the math score drop-off for typical 3rd, 4th and 5th graders. On average, the typical summer slide in math skills is about 2%. That is, students are 2% less proficient in math after their summer vacations.
Source: WSJ
To make matters worse, note the red line on the chart … it illustrates the projected drop-off due to this year’s virus-induced school closings.
It’s estimated that students will be about 5% less proficient in math than they were when the schools closed … the combined effect of lesser learning during the schools’ shut-down period and an extended summer slide (with many schools declaring no mas in early June) .
More specifically…
MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned a COVID-19 corner?
February 18, 2021Stay focused on the number of Daily New Deaths!
==============
This is a relevant excerpt from a long ago prior post (May 2020)
==============
Why have I centered on Daily New Deaths (DND) as my key metric?
First, saving lives is our paramount objective, right? If yes, it should be our focus metric.
Second, I think that most other metrics that are being bandied about are quite problematic.
Counting deaths — while a bit macabre — is a more reliable process than counting, say, the number of infected people.
Sure, I’d like to know the number of people infected with COVID-19.
But, unless everybody — or at lest a large statistical sample — is tested, the number of confirmed cases is subject to lots of statistical issues.
Most notably, who is being tested and who isn’t? What about the asymptomatic “hidden carriers”? What are the criteria for confirming a COVID infection? What about false positives (and false negatives)? How to standardize the reporting processes across states? How to keep governmental units from fudging the numbers?
Importantly, if testing increases, then confirmed cases goes up.
Is that an indication of more virus spread or just a reflection of more testing?
I sure can’t tell.
=============
Again, counting fatalities is probably the most reliable metric.
Fatalities are discrete events – so they’re countable.
Still, even deaths may have some counting imperfections.
For example, many non-hospitalized people die and are buried without autopsies. Some may be uncounted COVID victims.
On the other hand, some people may die and be diagnosed with COVID infections. That doesn’t necessarily mean that COVID killed them. That’s especially true with COVID since it’s most deadly for people with other health problems.
And, as we stated above, the definition of COVID deaths has changed:
COVID-related” means “COVID present”, not necessarily “COVID caused” … and that, along the way, “present” was redefined from “confirmed” to “presumed”
Further, COVID deaths are a function of two drivers: the incidence of the virus … and, the nature, level and timing of therapeutic healthcare.
Said differently, more effective therapeutic healthcare will dampen the death toll.
==============
Bottom line: “Daily New Deaths” is the number we should be watching.
If it shows a consistent downward trend, then we’ll know we’ve turned the corner.
If it stays stable (at a high level) or turns upward, we’ll know that we’re in deep yogurt.
Happy Thanksgiving !
November 26, 2020It has been a tough year.
So, it’s a good time to focus on the many reasons we still have to be thankful.
* * * * *
Follow on Twitter @KenHoma
#HomaFiles
Nums: A historical perspective on race relations in the U.S….
October 22, 2020Controversial topic, but since Obama raised it yesterday while campaigning for Biden, let’s see what the data says.
=============
On the Biden campaign trail, Obama says that he (and Biden) eased the racial divide … and that Trump is blew the gap wide open.
What do the numbers day?
click graph to enlarge
Well, according to Gallup, that’s only partially right…
America’s political polarization in 4 charts …
October 21, 2020It’s no secret that American politics has become increasingly – and maybe, irreversibly – polarized.
Obama is hitting the campaign trail for Biden.
I expect that Obama will lay blame for the political polarization on Trump and his band of ignorant deplorables.
In anticipation, let’s look at some inconvenient facts and put them in perspective…
=========
Way back in 2014, Meet the Press host Chuck Todd observed:
Polarization is no longer just polluting the system — it’s paralyzing it.
The deepening divide between the right and the left has largely hollowed out the center of American politics.
Gone are the politicians who once occupied the large “middle” and the voters who once gravitated to them.
Todd’s observations were true then, and they’re true now.
=========
The Pew Research Center has tracked party identity and ideology for decades.
One way they do it is by scoring the Republicans and Democrats on a 10-item scale of political values.
Based on the latest Pew data (from 2017), here’s where we stand:
=========
What the chart means …
Democrats cluster to the left, Republicans cluster to the right.
Less than 10 percent in each party overlaps ideologically with the other side.
That’s where we are.
How did we get here?
“Confirmed cases” skyrocketed … how many were false positives?
September 16, 2020One answer to why there wasn’t a commensurate high spike in deaths.
=============
COVID tests yielding “false positive” results have been hitting the news again.
A couple of weeks ago, Ohio governor Mike DeWine tested positive, missed an event with President Trump and was subsequently re-tested (twice) and found to be negative.
See Ohio Gov. DeWine tests negative … after testing positive.
This week, it was reported that several nursing homes have experienced numerous cases of false positives.
False-positive test results are a particularly significant risk in nursing homes, because a resident wrongly believed to have Covid-19 could be placed in an area dedicated to infected patients, potentially exposing an uninfected person to the coronavirus.
And, there is a growing number of reports that re-opened schools are being shut-down when a single student or faculty member tested positive. Locally, I know of 3 such instances.
Bottom line: false positives are very likely and have significant consequences to patients and institutions.
The IHME estimates that less than 1% of Americans are currently infected.
Given the low prevalence of COVID (i.e. percentage currently infected) … and low but statistically significant testing errors … the likelihood of false positives is very high!
Here’s my logic…
In my strategic business analytics course, I used to teach something called Bayesian Inference … a way to calculate probabilities by combining contextual information (called “base rates” or “priors”) with case-specific observations (think: testing or witnessing).
Today, we’ll apply Bayesian Inference to the COVID testing situation…
Nums: A historical perspective on race relations in the U.S….
September 1, 2020The “summer slide” meets the coronavirus…
July 30, 2020How much “dislearning” have children experienced during the schools’ shut down?
=============
In his 2008 bestseller Outliers: The Story of Success, Malcolm Gladwell popularized the notion of an educational “summer slide”.
Referencing a tracking study of Baltimore City Public School students, Gladwell highlighted evidence that students’ standardized test scores in the fall were generally lower than their scores in the prior spring.
His observation: “Between school years, students’ accumulated learning is diminished”.
In other words, there is a statistically significant “forget factor” if learning isn’t reinforced and edged forward with summer enrichment activities (think: summer school, educational camps, field trips, parental tutoring).
The summer slide is most pronounced for poor students who lack summer enrichment opportunities … and for all students in math.
The black line below illustrates the math score drop-off for typical 3rd, 4th and 5th graders. On average, the typical summer slide in math skills is about 2%. That is, students are 2% less proficient in math after their summer vacations.
Source: WSJ
To make matters worse, note the red line on the chart … it illustrates the projected drop-off due to this year’s virus-induced school closings.
It’s estimated that students will be about 5% less proficient in math than they were when the schools closed … the combined effect of lesser learning during the schools’ shut-down period and an extended summer slide (with many schools declaring no mas in early June) .
More specifically…
“Confirmed cases” are skyrocketing … how many are false positives?
July 28, 2020The answer is likely to surprise you!
=============
In my strategic business analytics course, I used to teach something called Bayesian Inference … a way to calculate probabilities by combining contextual information (called “base rates” or “priors”) with case-specific observations (think: testing or witnessing).
Today, we’ll apply Bayesian Inference to the COVID testing situation…
Why is COVID testing still so haphazard?
July 27, 2020Test results come too late for therapeutic decisions … and “the science” still can’t answer basic questions.
==============
Let’s dig into some numbers today…
Based on some back-of-the envelop arithmetic, I estimate that about 13 million Covid tests have been administered in the 3 weeks ending July 13
Note: The time period is strictly arbitrary. And, since I don’t have all of the daily data series, I just derived rough estimates off the charts. I doubt conclusions would change much with a different time period or more precise numbers
Now, let’s drill down on those numbers….
Happy 4th of July !
July 4, 2020Take a moment to remember how lucky we are …
June 22: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data
June 22, 2020263 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 628
> Peaked on April 21
============
Cumulative Deaths
122,246 Worldometer
186,258 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.
IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15
MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?
May 26, 2020Stay focused on the number of Daily New Deaths!
==============
Cutting to the chase, I’ve concluded that the most reliable number being reported is the number of COVID-19 related “Daily New Deaths”.
According to Worldometers – the best data aggregation site that I’ve found so far – there have been almost 100,000 COVID-19 related deaths in the U.S. so far.
Keep in mind that “COVID-related” means “COVID present”, not necessarily “COVID caused” … and that, along the way, “present” was redefined from “confirmed” to “presumed”
=============
From an analytical perspective, the chart of total deaths will, by definition, never crest and turn down. It’s rate of growth will eventually slow down, though, but that’s hard to read that from a chart.
So, I think it’s more useful to look at “Daily New Deaths” …. if that number keeps going up then, by definition, we haven’t turned the corner.
When Daily New Deaths start trending down then, by definition, we have turned the corner.
Here’s our charting of what Worldometers has reported since the first coronavirus cases were identified.
The dotted line is the 7-day moving average which smooths some of the day-to-day “noise” in the data.
Based on the 7-day moving average, it appears that the rate of growth of COVID-19 deaths trended downward since about April 21.
Bottom line: If you want to know if we’re starting to turn the corner, keep your eye on the number of COVID-19 related “Daily New Deaths”.
Choose the level of aggregation based on your specific interest … world, nation or state.
Note: I’ll be focusing on the U.S. national number … and the national number less the 3 state hot spots: NY, NJ, CT
=============
More specifically, why “Daily New Deaths”?
On this Memorial Day …
May 25, 2020 Remember all who gave their lives on our behalf
… and thank those who are serving us now.
=======
#HomaFiles
Follow on Twitter @KenHoma >> Latest Posts
=======
A very weird data point…
May 3, 2020Below is the current list of the Top 10 HomaFiles posts.
WordPress — the blogging platform that I use — auto-generates the list based on total views since posting and which posts are trending.
Which is the goose among the ducks?
- $$$: How much house can you buy for $1,000 per month?
- May 2: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data
- May 2: C-19 Key STATES Data
- May 3: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data
- How long do you wait in line to checkout at the supermarket?
- How many doctors are there in the U.S.?
- Help Wanted: Vice President of Contact Tracing & Testing
- How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?
- About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths…
- State-by-state COVID19 Deaths – Total and Per Capita
Yep, #1, the “How much house?” post.
It’s the all-time leader in cumulative views (by a lot), so it’s a near-permanent topic in the top 10 … but it’s usually buried in the middle of the list.
My hypothesis: The post gets a lot of “over the transom” views from folks who don’t follow the HomaFiles … mostly because the question in the title of the post sorts high on Google searches.
Over time, I’ve noticed that the housing post sorts higher on the list when the housing market heats up (e.g. when there’s a significant cut in mortgage rates). That makes sense.
Maybe the current coronavirus situation (i.e. some spots are particularly hot; everybody spending more time at home) has a lot of folks thinking about moving.
Hmmm.
=============
P.S. You can click on the links above if you’ve missed any of the trending posts.
Let’s make COVID testing actionable…
April 21, 2020We might be testing the wrong people.
===============
An earlier version was posted on March 22
COVID-19 testing has been getting a lot of attention recently since availability of test kits has been late and slow.
- TV pundit-doctors complain that they can’t get tests done on their patients.
- Some people are anxious to know if they have been infected.
- Scientists are dismayed that they don’t have enough data to accurately calibrate the problem.
The current answer: Prioritize diagnostic testing to sick people who have COVID symptoms (and want to be tested)…
My question: Is that the right answer?
I think not…
The power of anecdotes…
March 24, 2020Trump & Cuomo have jumped aboard the Hydroxychloroquine train, spurred on by pop-docs like Dr. Oz.
Dr. Fauci is “hesitant” because there haven’t been scientifically-pure randomized controlled clinical studies … just “anecdotal evidence”.
Memo to Dr. Fauci: Don’t underestimate the “power of anecdotes” in shaping decision-making and public opinion.
=========
In my Business Analytics course, I had students read a couple of excerpts from a book called Think Twice: The Power of Counter-intuition by Michael Mauboussin.
In a chapter called “The Outside View” the author reports findings from a medical study that investigated the relative importance of hard data and anecdotal evidence when patients select from among treatment options for serious health conditions.
Patients were given the hard scientific data about a treatment‘s success rates and an anecdote about a case history.
Some anecdotes were positive (the treatment was a success), some were negative (the treatment failed or had complications), and some were neutral (neither a clear success nor a dramatic failure).
Below is an extract of the study’s results summarizing the percentage of respondents selecting a treatment given the hard data on its success rate and a related anecdote of a specific case’s outcome.
Let’s drill down …
Trump: “Maybe I shoulda been a doctor”
March 9, 2020Let’s start the week on a high note.
Last week, President Trump visited the CDC in Atlanta.
Answering reporters’ questions, he felt the need to substantiate his credentials to be overseeing the COVID-19 response.
His answer — paraphrased above — is classic Trump … this 1-minute video is a ‘must see’.
For skeptics: His Uncle John Trump was a professor at the MIT, a recipient of U.S. President Reagan’s National Medal of Science and a member of the National Academy of Engineering. Uncle John was noted for developing rotational radiation therapy. He was the paternal uncle of Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States. Source
Logical inference: This science stuff is just in his genes.
Case closed.
==============
P.S. But, I’m not ready to have the guy operate on me.
==============
Follow on Twitter @KenHoma
#HomaFiles
The day the music died for Sen. Warren ….
March 6, 2020Welp, she called it a day … declaring some victory of sorts and pulling out of the presidential race.
She insinuates gender bias, some pundits opine that she was totally inauthentic – having been caught in a couple of whoppers, and some say that her policy ideas were just too radical for mainstream America.
In my opinion, the demise of Warren’s campaign can be traced to a single incident that went viral…
Has ObamaCare provided more healthcare?
February 19, 2020Not really: it just covered more people with health insurance?
Since Dems are making ObamaCare an election issue, let’s flashback to a prior post and inject some facts…
=========
In my consulting / problem-solving class, I always emphasized asking the right question before starting to gather data, doing analyses, drawing conclusions and making recommendations.
Makes sense, doesn’t it?
Then, would someone please explain to me why the politcos (on both sides) obsess over health insurance coverage (how many people are covered) and largely ignore the quantity & quality healthcare that Americans are getting?
Source: AAMC
My conclusion: More Americans now have health insurance, but healthcare hasn’t increased … it has just been re-distributed.
Remember how healthcare costs were going to drop by $2,500 for every family?
February 18, 2020The Dem presidential candidates are making a big deal out of “fixing the healthcare system” … and “cutting healthcare costs”.
That’s noble, but raises a question that’s been bugging me …
Wasn’t Obamacare supposed to do that?
Specifically, Obama — who never lied according to the MSM — told us that every family’s healthcare costs would go down by $2,500.
So what happened?
In 2016 (Obama’s last year in office), employees paid $11,000 out-of-pocket for healthcare … up $2,500 since 2012.
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Milliman – a well-regarded actuarial consulting” firm – has published an annual recap of healthcare spending since 2001.
The Milliman Medical Index tracks the total costs of providing health care to an average family of four covered by an employer-sponsored “preferred provider plan” … that’s about 155 million employees and their dependents.
The total includes the health insurance premiums paid by both the employer and the employee, as well as the actual expenditures for health care paid by the insurance plan and out of pocket by the insured family.
The big news: In 2016, the average healthcare costs for a family of 4 surpassed $25,000 for the first time … the $25,826 is triple the cost to provide health care for the same family in 2001 … and up about $5,000 since 2012.
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The bad(est) news is the increased proportion of the healthcare costs being shouldered by individual employees …
Reprise: How Beef-Loving Voters Can End Up WithTofu
February 7, 2020Was Biden a victim of the process or simply an awful candidate?
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This is from the HomaFiles archives – one of my favs.
The original WSJ article was inspired by Clinton’s win over elder Bush (the Perot factor), younger Bush’s win over Gore (the Nader factor), and Jesse Ventura’s gov win in Minnesota.
But, the analysis has current relevancy given the Iowa (partial) results.
Let’s look at how election processes influence results…
Reading minds to discern intentions…
January 30, 2020OK, Trump delayed aid to Ukraine and encouraged Zelensky to look into the Biden’s million dollar fauz-job scheme.
But, did he delay aid it because (1) he didn’t think other countries — more dependent on peace in Ukraine — were paying their fair share, or (2) he thought that a VP taking a million dollar bribe — albeit disguised — was corrupt, or (3) he was shaking at the prospects of facing Sleepy Joe in the election and wanted to kneecap him, or (4) some combination of the above.
The question boils down to how can you discern a person’s intentions?
An opinion piece by Sharyl Attkisson in The Hill titled “Democrats can read minds” crystalized something that’s been bothering me for awhile.
Remember when IG Horowitz outlined 17 (or more) mega-errors in the FBI FISA process.
Though all of the miscues were material and in the direction of securing warrants to surveil Trump campaigners, Horowitz asserted that he didn’t have testimonial or evidential proof (i.e. “smoking guns”) that the “mistakes” were the result of political bias.
Said differently, Horowitz refused to draw a conclusion re: motivation because “I can’t read minds”.
Fair enough.
The FBI / FISA situation was reminiscent of Comey’s press conference re: Hillary’s transgressions…
Psych 101: The one thing that I remember…
January 10, 2020Long ago, one of my students observed that students remember, at most, one or two things from any course they take.
At the time, I would have bet the over on that one … at least for my courses!
Over time, I’ve concluded that he was more right than wrong and that I would have lost the bet.
Partial evidence: I sometimes self-test on what I remember from courses that I took long ago in college and grad school.
Fast forward to today.
One of my friend’s daughters is graduating today with an degree in psychology.
That prompted me to think back to my undergrad Psychology 101 course.
Here’s what’s stored in my long-term memory…
Jeopardy Math: What’s the most money that the a contestant can win on one show?
January 9, 2020Here’s the solution to yesterday’s question.
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Note: Refer back to yesterdays post if you need a refresher on the question and the Jeopardy game essentials
See Jeopardy Math: What’s the most money that a contestant can win on one show?
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OK, let’s get started with the Jeopardy round’s gameboard:
For starters, assume that our contestant first-buzzes and correctly answers all of the gameboard’s questions.
Each category has questions totaling $3,000 … and there are 6 categories … so the gameboard has an “displayed total value” of $18,000.
That’s not the most that a contestant can win in that round because it doesn’t consider the impact of the hidden Daily Double square.
Jeopardy Math: What’s the most money that a contestant can win on one show?
January 8, 2020You don’t need to be a Jeopardy fan to solve this math problem. Try it!
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Last night, Jeopardy stated running a special tournament head-to-head matching former super-champs Ken Jennings (longest winning streak – 74 games), Brad Rutter (most winnings including special tournaments) and James Holzhauer.
James Holzhauer – a professional gambler – won $2,714,416 in his 33 appearances. His $82,255 average daily winnings uber-eclipsed other Jeopardy contestants.
See our prior post How a “professional sports gambler” is disrupting Jeopardy for a recap of his strategy
I was chatting with a friend who is a Jeopardy fan and former insurance industry exec. The question on the table was whether Jeopardy has an insurance policy to cover a runaway daily winner like Holzhauer. If yes, what’s the insurance risk?
Analytically, that led to today’s math problem: What’s the most that a contestant can win on one show?
For reference, Holzhauer won more than $100,000 five times … his best day ($131,127) is an all time Jeopardy record. A typical Jeopardy winner hauls in about $25,000 per show.
Today, I’ll set-up the problem. Again, you don’t have to be a Jeopardy fan or know the rules. I’ll tell you all that you need to know to solve the problem.
The perils of long-term financial planning…
December 24, 2019A couple of months ago, we alerted readers that Congress was targeting frugal estate planner by considering an end to so-called “stretch” IRAs.
Well they did it.
While folks were fixated on a shiny object, Congress passed a massive spending bill … with some of the outrageous spending being funded by limiting IRA benefits..
Why’s that important?
Here’s our original post, in case your memory needs a jogging…
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According to a WSJ recap…
Conventional financial planning wisdom has been to put as much money as possible into IRAs and 401Ks … starting early, maxing plan contributions, benefiting from company matches, growing accounts tax-free … and, if you don’t end up spending all of the dough in retirement, pass anything left in the pot to heirs.
While that basic logic still holds, Congress is moving to throw a monkey wrench into the works by substantially increasing the tax burden on heirs.
Here’s what’s going on…
Ken’s UEI (Ultimate Economic Indicator) … the real gauge of the economy.
December 16, 2019Recently, I placed an Amazon order for a pair of shoes … checked ‘free shipping’ (not Prime) … and it took 10 days for the order to arrive on my doorstep.
Why is that important”
There are a lot of indicators bandied about to ‘prove’ how well or poorly the economy is doing.
There’s GDP, unemployment, CPI, and many, many other metrics.
Sometimes they provide a consistent view of the economy … sometimes they contradict.
Well, I now rely on my Ultimate Economic Indicator (UEI). An indisputable measure of economic activity …
Happy Thanksgiving !
November 27, 2019Flashback: Obama schools Romney that “Russia isn’t a threat”
November 25, 2019Watching the Impeachment Inquiry last week I was struck by Dem witnesses’ hyperbolic concern about Russia.
Just a minute guys…
Remember the 2012 Presidential debates?
A key moment was when President Obama ridiculed Gov. Romney’s knowledge of foreign affairs.
Given the current hysteria over Russia, the clip is a classic … try to stay calm when you watch it
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Here’s more that’ll should make you scream …
Before climate change, there was the “Population Bomb”.
November 21, 2019And, there are remarkable similarities.
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Recently, in one of her articulated streams of consciousness, AOC warned that we all would be toast in 12 years if global warming wasn’t arrested.
Time to metal-cube our SUVs and mass-slaughter the bovine-methane creatures, right?
Well, not so fast.
While AOC’s warning may come to fruition, I’m betting the over on the 12 years … in part, because it fits a pattern of hysterical unrealized doomsday predictions.
For example, circa. 1970, Prof. Paul Ehrlich (Stanford University) wrote Malthusian-inspired book: The Population Bomb. The book became a runaway “scientific” best-seller.
Ehrlich warned that because of unchecked population growth:
The battle to feed all of humanity is over.
Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death.
All of us will face mass starvation on a dying planet.
While their were some deniers, demographers agreed almost unanimously with Ehrlich’s doomsday prediction ….
More: Have colleges watered down their curriculums?
November 15, 2019A survey of 700 schools answers the question.
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In a prior post, we outlined the criteria and method that the American Council of Trustees and Alumni (ACTA) used to assess whether students are learning the “essential skills and knowledge” for work and for life.
In a nutshell, ACTA researchers culled through over 700 schools’ course catalogs and web sites to determine what courses were being offered and, more important, which courses were required of all students.
Specifically, they investigated whether undergraduates are gaining a reasonable college-level introduction in seven core subject areas:
- Composition & argumentation
- Literature and critical thinking
- Foreign language & culture
- U.S. government & history
- Economics: Macro, micro, behavioral
- Mathematics, logic & computer science
- Science & scientific experimentation.
Here’s what they found …
Have colleges watered down their curriculums?
November 14, 2019A survey seeks to answer that question.
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In a prior post, we reported that employers think that most college graduates are poorly prepared for the work force in such areas as critical thinking, communication and problem solving.
See A bigger college scandal than the recent admissions bruhaha…
Let’s dig a little deeper on that sentiment.
The American Council of Trustees and Alumni (ACTA) conducted a survey of “Core Requirements at our Nation’s Colleges and Universities” to determine what students are really learning in college.
Specifically, the ACTA survey focused on the courses that a student is required to take outside the major.
These courses — commonly called general education classes or the school’s core curriculum — are, according to the ACTA, “ the foundation of a school’s academic program”.
They are the courses “generally designed to equip students with essential skills and knowledge” for work and for life.
Here is specifically what ACTA was looking for…
More: Have colleges watered down their curriculums?
November 12, 2019A survey of 700 schools answers the question.
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In a prior post, we outlined the criteria and method that the American Council of Trustees and Alumni (ACTA) used to assess whether students are learning the “essential skills and knowledge” for work and for life.
In a nutshell, ACTA researchers culled through over 700 schools’ course catalogs and web sites to determine what courses were being offered and, more important, which courses were required of all students.
Specifically, they investigated whether undergraduates are gaining a reasonable college-level introduction in seven core subject areas:
- Composition & argumentation
- Literature and critical thinking
- Foreign language & culture
- U.S. government & history
- Economics: Macro, micro, behavioral
- Mathematics, logic & computer science
- Science & scientific experimentation.
Here’s what they found …
What are your chances of dying from ___ ?
November 8, 2019Yesterday, we posted that men are 9 times more likely than women to be attacked by sharks … and 6 times more likely to be struck by lightning.
Continuing in that vein, here’s a test for you …
Rank the the following by the odds that somebody who is in the group or who is exposed to the risk is likely to die.
Make #1 the highest risk of dying in the next year; make #7 the lowest risk circumstance
- For women giving birth
- For anyone thirty-five to forty-four years old
- From asbestos in schools
- For anyone for any reason
- From lightning
- For police on the job
- From airplane crashes
And the answer is …
The degree-earning gender gap…
November 6, 2019An interesting analysis done by economist Mark Perry concludes:
Since 1982, women have earned 13 million more college degrees than men.
Let’s drill down on those numbers…
Do students really learn what’s taught?
November 5, 2019Though I’ve retired from the practice, I’m still very engaged on education issues … especially whether our students (at all levels) are being adequately schooled to compete in the real world.
So, one of my summer reads is “What Schools Could Be” by Ted Dinterersmith – a well credentialed, experience-deep educator.
In a nutshell, author Ted Dintersmith spent a year visiting schools across the nation to identify outstanding teachers and catalog their secret sauces.
One of the anecdotes that he recounts in the book hit one of my longstanding questions: Do students really learn what they’re being taught?
The Homa Files 