The percentage of infections resulting in hospitalization or death has declined, but…
…. as I used to preach to students: a little number times a very, very large number is a large number.
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In prior posts, I’ve encouraged readers to stay focused on the number of Daily New Deaths DNDs).
MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned a COVID-19 corner?
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It’s not news that the number of covid cases has skyrocketed.
These days, everybody knows somebody who has tested positive for covid … or, has suffered covid-like symptoms without a confirming covid test.
Our personal observations are captured in the reported aggregate numbers.
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There’s a tendency to characterize the spike in cases as low severity annoyances … minimizing the reality that covid-related deaths are still accumulating at the pandemic’s average rate.
Specifically, we’re currently averaging about 1,250 covid-related deaths per day.
Let’s put the 1,250 in perspective …
> Since the start of the pandemic in early 2020, there have been about 850,000 covid-counted deaths … that averages out to 1,300 daily deaths.
> At the 2 prior peaks — April 2020 and January 2021 — the daily death rate reached about 2,250 and 3,500, respectively.
> Historically, the number of flu-related deaths averages about 250 per day during the flu season.
So, while the current daily death count is less than half of the count during the prior peak periods, it’s 5 times the average number of in-season flu deaths.
And, the numbers add up.
Since the prior trough in July 2021, there have been about 225,000 covid-related deaths … that’s about 1/4 of the total covid-related deaths to date.
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Bottom line: We’re not out of the woods yet, folks.
Stay focused on the daily death counts.
Postpone any victory celebrations until we get down to the 250 flu-related deaths benchmark … and stay at or below that number.
The Homa Files 
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