The Homa Files

One flattened the curve, the other didn’t … which is which might surprise you.
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Let’s start with the basic concept that has been the basis for the slow-the-spread lockdown and other covid mitigation initiatives: flattening the curve.

The concept is simple and intuitively appealing: Try to contain the spread of the virus so that the hospital system isn’t overwhelmed … and to “buy time” for the development of vaccines and other therapeutic drugs and treatment protocols.

Makes sense, right?

OK, so let’s throw some actual data against the problem and see what we get…

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Below is an illustration of the actual covid experience in two states.

The source charts are displayed below.  I’ve just freehanded them on the same scale.

Question: Which of the states — A or B — appears to have successfully flattened the covid curve?

Obvious answer: State B

State A — the one that didn’t flatten the curve — is New York.

I know what you’re thinking: “That can’t be.”

After all, Gov. Cuomo has himself declared that “it’s an undeniable fact” that NY — under his savant leadership — flattened the curve.

He even published a victory lap poster memorializing the achievement …

…  and, no less than Dr. Anthony “Wide Left” Fauci praised Cuomo’s efforts for flattening the curve.

Say, what?

Glance back at the above charts — including the steep mountain on Cuomo’s poster — and ask yourself: “Is that what flattening looks like?”

Answer: No!

Now glance at State B’s curve in the illustration above — the state that appears to have flattened the curve.

That’s Florida … under oft-maligned Gov. DeSantis.

You know, the guy that let college kids enjoy Spring Break, who re-opened the state way too early and is now advocating a quick re-opening of the schools.

Hmm…

NY 19.5 million) and FL (21.5 million) have roughly the same population.

To date, NY has accumulated 32,781 covid-related deaths; FL has had 8,257.

The IHME forecast is that NY will have accumulated 33,258 by Nov.1; FL is projected to have had 16,452 deaths over the same time period — half as many as NY.

Tell me again why how Cuomo is a genius and DeSantis is a duffass…

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Source charts from IHME

This entry was posted on August 12, 2020 at 10:00 am and is filed under Coronavirus - Covid 19. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.