A covid tale of two states…

One flattened the curve, the other didn’t … which is which might surprise you.
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Let’s start with the basic concept that has been the basis for the slow-the-spread lockdown and other covid mitigation initiatives: flattening the curve.

The concept is simple and intuitively appealing: Try to contain the spread of the virus so that the hospital system isn’t overwhelmed … and to “buy time” for the development of vaccines and other therapeutic drugs and treatment protocols.

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Makes sense, right?

OK, so let’s throw some actual data against the problem and see what we get…

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Below is an illustration of the actual covid experience in two states.

The source charts are displayed below.  I’ve just freehanded them on the same scale.

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Question: Which of the states — A or B — appears to have successfully flattened the covid curve?

Obvious answer: State B

State A — the one that didn’t flatten the curve — is New York.

I know what you’re thinking: “That can’t be.”

After all, Gov. Cuomo has himself declared that “it’s an undeniable fact” that NY — under his savant leadership — flattened the curve.

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He even published a victory lap poster memorializing the achievement …

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…  and, no less than Dr. Anthony “Wide Left” Fauci praised Cuomo’s efforts for flattening the curve.

Say, what?

Glance back at the above charts — including the steep mountain on Cuomo’s poster — and ask yourself: “Is that what flattening looks like?”

Answer: No!

Now glance at State B’s curve in the illustration above — the state that appears to have flattened the curve.

That’s Florida … under oft-maligned Gov. DeSantis.

You know, the guy that let college kids enjoy Spring Break, who re-opened the state way too early and is now advocating a quick re-opening of the schools.

Hmm…

NY 19.5 million) and FL (21.5 million) have roughly the same population.

To date, NY has accumulated 32,781 covid-related deaths; FL has had 8,257.

The IHME forecast is that NY will have accumulated 33,258 by Nov.1; FL is projected to have had 16,452 deaths over the same time period — half as many as NY.

Tell me again why how Cuomo is a genius and DeSantis is a duffass…

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Source charts from IHME

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