The Homa Files

Now that I’m officially “qualified” to get the COVID-vaccine, I’m a lot more interested in the details.

And, the more I dig deep, the more confused I get.

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Let’s start with the Biden Plan which. I guess, kicks off officially tomorrow.

I commend Biden for elevating the priority of “shots in arms” … and buy-in to ideas like mass distribution sites, community clinics, mobile distribution sites, accelerated retail distribution (drug stores, grocery chains, Costco).

I especially like the nudge that’s legitimizing over 65ers (i.e. me) for vaccinations.

But…

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What’s the goal?

I like the specific goal of “100 million in 100 days”, but gotta ask: 100 million what?

Reading the recaps of weekend interviews this weekend, Biden’s spokespeople seem to be a bit squishy on whether the target is 100 doses or 100 people fully vaccinated (i.e. having gotten both doses).

This may sound like nit-picky semantics, but it’s a big difference.

If it’s 100 million doses, it’s a lay-up.

Last week, we were hovering around 1 million shots per der day … best day was over 1 million; 7-day average was 775k per day.

Threshold reached, trend positive … especially, in marketing-speak,  with a wider target market and and broader retail distribution.

Simple math: 1 million doses per day times 100 days equals, drum roll, 100 million “shots in arms”.

But having 100 million people fully vaccinated (i.e. both doses) is a long 3-point shot (from about mid-court).

My back-of-envelope estimate is that 100 million doses in 100 days would translate to about 70 million people fully vaccinated (since many folks will be taking 2 bits of the apple).

That’s a big difference … but still a commendable goal (especially if my wife & I are among the 70 million!).

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What about vaccine supply?

This is the big weekend surprise…

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Team Biden made a big splash when it announced that it would release the stockpile of doses that was being held as safety stock to ensure 2nd doses for all people who get first-dosed.

The apparent implication: an huge surge in supply going to the states (to the counties to the hospitals to the patients).

But, HHS Secretary Azar revealed over the weekend that the stockpile had already been released — save for some small dribbles still in process — so there wouldn’t be a bonanza of doses going to the states … just current receipts being allocated and distributed.

The swing factor is about 30 million doses … which puts a whole new paint job on the 100-in-100 challenge.

Only thing that is for sure: at the “retail” level no hospital or other distribution point has any idea how many doses they’ll have available this week … let alone over the next couple months.

That makes scheduling a tad difficult, for sure.

More on that tomorrow.

This entry was posted on January 18, 2021 at 10:00 am and is filed under COVID - vaccine. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.