Uh-oh: If you haven’t already scored your 1st vax shot…

… the 2nd dose aftershock effect™ may clog schedules and make you wait until March.

Caution: Keep in mind that we’re frustrated that we haven’t been able to get vaccinated even though we’re officially “vulnerable”.

Earlier this week, the obvious became evident to me.

The chart below displays the number of vax doses administered in our home county.

What pops out at you?


Yep, the blue section of the bars is getting proportionately bigger from week-to-week.

If you answered: “the 2 bars in the middle are pretty small”, you’re right, too. 

The obvious explanation: National emergencies are only fought Monday thru Friday (preferably 9 to 5)

So, what’s the blue section?

It’s the number of vax doses given as 2nd shots.

Two weeks ago, 2nd shots accounted for about 15% of the total.

Last week, that proportion jumped to over 1/3 … and, is continuing to increase.

That’s completely understandable.

Since January was essentially the first month of vaccinations … and, both Pfizer and Moderna have 2-shot regiments … all of those January 1st shots are coming due for their follow-up 2nd shots.

What’s the practical implication?

BOOM ! The predictable headline:


While we’re not directly impacted by Baltimore City’s policy, it foreshadows what we can expect to see in my home county (see chart above).

And, the 2nd dose aftershock effect™  is likely to make it to a neighborhood near all folks waiting for first shots.

Case in point: Following Baltimore City’s lead, Maryland’s state health secretary told health care providers that they should” hold in reserve enough COVID-19 vaccine to administer second doses to people who have already received one shot — rather than using their supply to give more people their first inoculation.” Source

The good news: it’s likely to be an alternating month dynamic.

Since there will be proportionately fewer 1st shots in February, there won’t be as many pent-up 2nd shots in March … so, we eager un-vaxed people should a pretty good shot in March (<= pun intended).

And, hopefully, Fauci & Friends won’t drag out the J&J vax approval … which could potentially open the vax floodgates in March.


P.S. There are some health policy changes that could also mitigate the 2nd dose aftershock effect™

We’ll save those for subsequent posts.


One Response to “Uh-oh: If you haven’t already scored your 1st vax shot…”

  1. VAX: Breaking thru the vaccination bottlenecks… | The Homa Files Says:

    […] See: F.D.A.’s guidelines for second doses is misguided. and CDC updates guidance re: 2nd shots… and Uh-oh: If you haven’t already scored your 1st vax shot… […]

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