The Homa Files

Data says it’s OK to wait 6 weeks
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In yesterday’s post  we channeled two  infectious diseases doctors who advocate that all highly vulnerable people get a 1st dose of vaccine before anybody gets a 2nd dose.

Simplified, their logic is that it’s better to quickly have more highly vulnerable people protected 70% than it is to have a much smaller number of people (some consequentially vulnerable, some not) protected 95%.

To folks who are queued up for their 2nd dose, the idea of delaying 2nd shots is sheer nonsense.

But, to frustrated vax hunters (like me) the idea of pushing out 2nd shots has obvious (selfish) appeal.

So, what does “the science” and the data say?

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The CDC continues to recommend that people get their second dose of COVID-19 vaccine as close to the recommended interval as possible (3 weeks for Pfizer and 4 weeks for Moderna).

But…

Based on data from clinical trials, the CDC released updated guidance that allows for 2nd dose administration up to 6 weeks (42 days) after the first.

While the CDC is explicit that it  is not advocating for people to delay getting their second dose, they do greenlight it in cases when  it is not feasible to adhere to the recommended interval.

Hmmm.

So, “the science” says, based on the data, that it’s ok to stretch the 2nd dose interval to 6 weeks.

Would a 2 week delay statistically significant to overall vaccination rates in the race to protect the most vulnerable … and race towards herd immunity.

The apparent answer: you bet!

Keep in mind that there’s a national inventory of “doses distributed but not administered” that’s hovering around 20 million doses.

Much of it is being held by CVS & Walgreens — leftover from the program to vaccinate nursing homes.

Another big chunk is the reserve inventory that’s designated for 2nd doses.

For details, see: Some of the unused vaccine inventory has been found!

Imagine if that inventory were to be released for 1st doses.

That would certainly accelerate the 1st dose vaccination rate — protecting a lot of people up to 70% protection.

Then, when the J&J 1-dose vax is approved, all of the new Pfizer-Moderna production could be designated to catch-up on 2nd doses.

A radical strategy, but just might work…

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DISCLAIMER: I’m not a medical professional or scientist — just a curious, self-interested guy.  So, don’t take anything that I say or write as medical advice. Get that from your doctor!

This entry was posted on February 10, 2021 at 10:00 am and is filed under COVID - vaccine. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.