The Homa Files

Not “real” wages, Joe!
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Yesterday, we data-tested Biden’s claim that he “created 6 million new jobs — more jobs in one year than any time before.”

The fundamental conclusion: They’re not new jobs.  They’re just old jobs that are being re-filled as lockdowns end and the economy re-opens.

The fun conclusion: By Biden’s measure of job creation, Trump, in his last 6 months,  “created” jobs at a rate 4 times Biden’s rate.

The metric to watch: How many people are employed … and, we’re still 3.7 million jobs below pre-Covid employment levels.

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Wage Gains

Today, let’s look at Biden 2nd most touted claim: “Workers are getting raises. Wages are (finally) going up.”

Let’s unpack that claim…

According WaPo, channeling BLS numbers, nominal average hourly wages did rise  4.7% last year.

But, “real” wages — adjusted for inflation, fell 2.4%.

Note that:

> During the Obama years, nominal wages (the blue line) were flat … and real wages dipped below the “stay-even” with inflation line

> During the Trump years, nominal wages increased at a slow but steady rate … and real wages stayed above the stay-even line.

> During Biden’s year, nominal wages did increase (by 4.7%), but raging (non-transitory!) inflation more than ate up the gain … so real rages dropped far below the stay-even line (by 2.4%)

So what?

In plain English, according to an NBC poll, over 60% of Americans do not think that their family income is keeping up with the cost of living.

Also, according to the NBC poll:

“Overwhelming majorities of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.”

Coincidence?

This entry was posted on January 25, 2022 at 7:27 am and is filed under Biden, Joe, Bidenomics, Trump, President Donald J.. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.