Adapted from the Washington Post WonkBlog:
The below chart represents a network of the entire population of a fictional and very small town.
Each circle represents a person. Two people who know each other are connected by a line. People who are not connected by a line have never met.
The day’s political issue: whether baseball caps are fashionable. Each circle is colored to indicate that person’s stance on the issue. Blue circles think caps are fashionable. Orange circles think that caps are not fashionable. (On this issue, everyone has an opinion.)
The town will be voting on whether to officially consider baseball caps fashionable.
A polling firm recently asked whether each person thought that the town would vote to deem baseball caps fashionable.
Assume each person polled based their prediction solely on how the majority of people they know felt about baseball caps (excluding his or her own view).
Did the polling firm find the measure was expected to pass or fail?
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