If so many people want hybrid cars … how come ?

May 12, 2009

Ken’s Take: Both GM and Chrysler will be pushed by Team Obama to make the itsy-bitsy hybrids that “everybody wants.”

According to the WSJ: hybrids still  aren’t getting any traction in the market and, now, Toyota is beefing up the Prius with more size and more power.

Hmmmm.

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 Excerpted from WSJ: “Hybrids Battle for Green”, May 11, 2009

With sales of hybrid vehicles sinking, … Toyota,is rolling out a major U.S. ad push for its 2010 Prius, the third generation of the world’s top-selling hybrid vehicle.

Toyota’s new ad for its third-generation Prius shows a planet in harmony, with humanized clouds, fields and flowers bursting into song.

Some experts believe that price should be a big factor in the campaigns; hybrids typically cost thousands of dollars more than comparable gas-burning models. “They need to emphasize not only the social benefits of hybrids but also the economics … one of the big hang-ups with these cars is that they cost more.”

The allure of hybrids has waned with the decline in oil prices. Prius sales have fallen about 50% from Jan. 1 to April 30. F or all their earth-friendly cachet, hybrid cars represent only 2% of the light-vehicle market.

“It’s stunning … despite all the successes of the Prius and the emphasis on global warming, we can’t get significant hybrid penetration.”

“The big barrier for mass consumers is they worried that the Prius was underpowered and small …  the newly remodeled Prius is slightly bigger, with more horsepower.

The initial Prius advertising largely targeted the early adopter and the tree-hugging crowd, while the second generation of the vehicle was seen as the family’s second or commuter car. This campaign is about the “mainstreaming of the product.”

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124199018707904593.html

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Innovators’ success formula … don’t listen to users

May 12, 2009

Excerpted from HBS Working Knowledge, “Radical Design, Radical Results” by Julia Hanna, February 19, 2009

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When furniture designer Herman Miller presented a prototype of its sleek, mesh Aeron chair to a consumer focus group, many asked if they could see a finished, upholstered version.

Innovative product design can be a risky proposition. Yet as consumer purchases become increasingly driven by emotion, the competitive advantage gained by how a product “speaks” to a customer is clear. Just think about how Apple began its resurrection in 1998 with the unthinkable design of computers made of translucent blue, orange, and pink plastic, the original iMac.

Despite the importance of industrial design, little theory exists on how companies might go about creating a successful design strategy.

“Researchers have been investigating technological innovation for decades, but we know almost nothing about how companies manage design innovation.” .

For a study, Profs. Verganti and Dell’Era focused on the Italian furniture industry… they also divided the corresponding sample of 100 manufacturers into innovators and imitators.

Verganti says that design innovation often involves a high degree of uncertainty in terms of market success. “It’s very hard to understand what people want,” he says. “If I make a car that can brake in 10 yards instead of 50, that’s a quantifiable advantage that is easy to understand. But if I decide to create a computer out of translucent, colored plastic, it’s much more subjective. People will love it, or they won’t.”

Focus groups and market research can help to define a product, of course, but Verganti has found that design-driven innovation is not user-centered. Instead, it comes from within the organization. “Rather than being pulled by user requirements,” he wrote recently, “design-driven innovation is pushed by a firm’s vision about possible new product meanings … that could diffuse in society.”

“Apple is a company that is pushed by a vision,” Verganti says. “Steve Jobs has said that the market doesn’t always know what it wants. Companies that do radical innovation do not listen to users; they eventually value market feedback, but first they propose things to the users.”

In the face of this market uncertainty, Verganti has found that companies adopt one of three different strategies:

  1. Launch and see. The company launches a variety of products, and then measures market reaction to each, relying on the selective capability of consumers to determine which products to focus on.
  2. See and launch. The company employs some sort of research process and then launches products based on its findings.
  3. Wait and see. The company allows others to experiment with various products, observes what is most successful, and reacts accordingly.

In Verganti’s study of the Italian furniture industry, one would expect those who wait and see to have the least amount of variety in their product line. After all, if the imitators decide to stand back and observe what is most successful, wouldn’t they choose to copy just a few, choice products? Conversely, it would seem that the innovative companies would probably have higher levels of variety in their products because of the experiments they conduct.

Instead, the results showed just the opposite.

While the cost of experimentation in the furniture industry is relatively low, Verganti and his colleague found that the innovator companies actually used a see and launch strategy, conducting research in order to understand what sort of product language might be most successful. (This research is less of the focus-group variety and more of a broad-based assessment of cultural trends and scenario building.)

“Innovators avoid proposing a wide range of product signs and languages as a way to protect brand identity,” says Verganti. “They tend to adopt strategies that allow customers to easily reconnect specific product signs to their brands.”

In contrast, imitators show a greater variety in their product portfolio. They observe what innovators do and how the market reacts. But the feedback they receive is initially so ambiguous, with several languages coexisting, that they eventually imitate everything.

“The confusion that this creates in the market is called semiotic pollution,” Verganti says. “Imitators can be successful if they wait four or five years to determine what they should produce. But in the beginning it’s not clear which product is the winner. So when it comes to product languages, imitation is a very expensive strategy.”

Do these findings have implications beyond the design-heavy world of the Italian furniture industry? Regardless of the product in question, Verganti believes that companies need to consider the importance of design.

“In every industry, sooner or later, there is a radical change in the language of its products,” he says. “So the point for companies is, do they want to lead the change, or do they want to suffer the change?”

Edit by NRV

Full article:http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/5850.html

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Words that Work … Rebranding ‘Global Warming’

May 11, 2009

Ken’s Take: While contexted around the global warming debate, there’s an important lesson re: ,essaging using “words that work.”

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According to the NY Times:

Environmental issues consistently rate near the bottom of public worry, according to many public opinion polls. A Pew Research Center poll released in January found global warming last among 20 voter concerns; it trailed issues like addressing moral decline and decreasing the influence of lobbyists.

Why? Well, the problem with global warming, some environmentalists believe, is “global warming.”

The term turns people off, fostering images of shaggy-haired liberals, economic sacrifice and complex scientific disputes

According to the messaging group EcoAmerica; “We know why it’s lowest … When someone thinks of global warming, they think of a politicized, polarized argument. When you say ‘global warming,’ a certain group of Americans think that’s a code word for progressive liberals, gay marriage and other such issues.”

The answer … is to speak in TALKING POINTS aspirational language about shared American ideals, like freedom, prosperity, independence and self-sufficiency while avoiding jargon and details about policy, science, economics or technologyis …  and to  reframe the issue using different language.

For example:

Global Warming becomes Climate Crisis or Deteriorating Atmosphere

Cap & Trade becomes Pollution Reduction Refund

Carbon becomes Pollution

From: “Seeking to Save the Planet, With a Thesaurus”,
May 2, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/02/us/politics/02enviro.html?_r=1&sq=EcoAmerica%20&st=cse&scp=1&pagewanted=print

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If you thought the bridge to nowhere was a bad idea …

May 8, 2009

… then sit down (absolutely necessary) and watch the attached 3-minute video clip which presents the John Murtha AIrport in Johnston, PA.

The highlights:

$150 million of government pork invested

Almost $1 million of stimulus funds

3 flights per day a.. to / from DC

20 passengers per day

These guys have absolutely no conscience …

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ABC TV video
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?cl=13140642

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Price Only One Part of the Value Proposition …So Say Companies Trying to Raise Prices

May 8, 2009

Excerpted from New York Times, “With Shoppers Pinching Pennies, Some Big Retailers Get the Message”, by Stuart Elliott, April 13, 2009

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As shoppers remain reluctant to open their wallets, stores are still scrambling to adjust advertising and marketing strategies to play up the value aspects of what they sell. Even as retail sales data for March suggested improving results at some chains, consumers are hesitating to buy much beyond groceries, gasoline, vitamins and candy.

Much of the focus on value defines the term in a way that will resonate with choosy shoppers. Value can mean more than low prices, but with unemployment high — and consumer confidence low — many are fixating on cost.

* * * * *

That is reflected by a change in approach at Home Depot, which introduced a campaign that carries the theme “More saving. More doing.” The theme replaced one used since 2003, “You can do it. We can help.”

J. C. Penney, whose campaign carries the theme “Every day matters,” recently added phrases to its ads like “Style, quality and price matter.”

Whole Foods Market is promoting the lower prices of its private-label brand, 365 Everyday Value, in regional ads with headlines like “Sticker shock, but in a good way” and “No wallets were harmed in the buying of our 365 Everyday Value products.”

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Target, the discount retailer, began running a value campaign on April 5 in newspapers in 19 major markets. The headlines asked, “Why pay more for more?” The campaign seeks to explain the value proposition within the longtime ad theme, “Expect more. Pay less.”

In May, Target plans to advertise with “a whole new articulation” of the promise inherent in the “Expect more. Pay less” theme.

Before the recession, Target “fell into a trap,” and was “not doing as much as we should have been doing” with the “Pay less” part of the theme.

As the principal Target rival, Wal-Mart Stores, made hay with ads carrying the theme “Save money. Live better,” ads for Target played up the stylishness of merchandise or featured the designers behind its apparel and home furnishings.

“‘Expect more’ is the true differentiating play for Target if Wal-Mart owns price. The right price is only the beginning of the conversation.

Edit by DAF

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Full article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/13/business/media/13adcol.html?ref=media&pagewanted=print

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Employees Are Becoming the Newest TV Stars

May 8, 2009

Excerpted from Forbes, “Forget Celebrities. Employees Make Compelling Ad Stars In Tough Times” By Helen Coster, Apr 17, 2009

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A few employees who haven’t lost their jobs suddenly have a new one: advertising.

At a time when consumers are distrustful of big companies and their leaders, marketers are putting employees in ads in an effort to make their brands seem more transparent and trustworthy. These ads, from companies like Ford Motor, ExxonMobil, and Alabama Power, among others, are geared to make customers and employees feel better about these companies. Honda Motor Co. features at least 30 employees, including Chief Executive Takeo Fukui, and a few luminaries, including race car driver Danica Patrick, in three seven-and-a-half minute online films dubbed “Dream the Impossible” …

Nationwide Insurance is taking a similar approach with its new TV, print and radio campaign called “I Am On Your Side.” The TV ads feature Nationwide claims adjusters and customer service representatives talking about their experiences on the job. In one spot, property claims representative Terry Medley talks about how people prepare for a “prize fight” before they talk to an insurance adjuster. “We wanted to come across as authentic and genuine,” says Nationwide spokesman Michael Switzer …

[T]he TV spots … mark a sharp departure from the company’s previous ad effort. Themed “Life Comes at You Fast,” it featured celebrities such as Kevin Federline and Fabio showing the bad things that can happen to people when they aren’t prepared.

In some cases, marketers hope to demonstrate that by treating employees well, they will do good things for customers too. A current print ad from Verizon Wireless talks up innovation by touting its training programs for employees, including Philip Morisky, who is pictured teaching his son how to ride a bike. The tagline: “Our people. Our network.”

Companies tend to trot out employees as spokespeople when the economy or the company is in trouble. “Because of the financial crisis, there’s a growing anger about big companies in particular … People think that CEOs are overpaid, that big companies don’t respect the environment. … This is the natural reaction of some companies to say: “We’re on the consumers’ side. We’re not the enemy.”

Will people really buy more cars if they relate to the Average Joe in a Honda ad? “I think in the long term [they will],” says Honda’s Center. “It’s always controversial when you do institutional advertising but, as a marketer, you have to be able to juggle a couple of balls. One of them is to sell products and generate revenue in near term while continuing to build the foundation your house is standing on. That’s why we’re doing these things, even in these tough times.”

Edit by SAC

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Full Article:
http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/17/honda-nationwide-ads-cmo-network-employee-ads.html?feed=rss_leadership_cmonetwork

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G.M. Seeking Stake in Fiat … huh ?

May 7, 2009

Ken’s Take: Let me be sure that I got this right: Chrysler is bankrupt and in bankruptcy proceedings.  GM is bankrupt but is trying to duck bankruptcy proceedings. Fiat gets a part of Chrysler without paying a dime for it.  GM snags a part of Fiat.  So, one bankrupt company is bailing another, using an Italian auto juggernaut as the conduit.

I must be missing something

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From the NY Times:

Four years after paying $2 billion to extricate itself from a partnership with Fiat, General Motors is seeking a stake in the Italian automaker …

G.M., despite its precarious financial position, now feels it has a bargaining chip with its Latin American unit, and is negotiating with Fiat over what it might get in return. G.M. executives are holding out for at least 30 percent of the Fiat Auto Group.

Fiat and G.M. frequently clashed during their five-year partnership, which began in 2000. Fiat engineers said G.M. was too cautious and unwilling to embrace new technology that would have created cleaner, more fuel-efficient engines. In Germany, meanwhile, Opel engineers became convinced that Fiat didn’t share its focus on detail or quality standards.

Full article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/07/business/global/07auto.html?scp=1&sq=gm%20fiat&st=cse

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The Next Big Thing … Ping Pong?

May 7, 2009

Excerpted from WSJ, “Anheiser Gets Set to Play a Whole New Game,” By Matthew Futterman, Apr 27, 2009

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A group of sports and entertainment marketers is betting ping pong will be the next game to sweep the nation, and Anheuser-Busch InBev’s U.S. unit is getting into the action.

Anheuser-Busch … has signed on as the lead sponsor of the Bud Light Hard Bat Ping Pong Tournament, which started last month.

The big brewer is backing Robert Friedman, president of media and entertainment for New York commercial-production company @Radical Media, and several major partners, who think ping pong could be the next Texas Hold ‘Em, the card game featured in the highly successful World Series of Poker.

The nostalgia factor, made keener by the recession, is one reason they are confident of ping pong’s appeal. “This is about the residual goodwill we all feel for the better times we grew up with,” says Mr. Friedman. “This conjures up family.”

As the idea for the new tourney began to jell, Anheuser-Busch was re-evaluating, and even shedding, several longtime deals with athletes and major sports teams … In came ping pong. With exclusive sponsorships for mainstream teams and sports becoming ever more expensive, Anheuser-Busch needed to strike a balance …

The organizers know they have to come up with an innovative approach to televising a game that in the past has been hard to follow because of the speed and the size of the ball. Even if they can, could this really be the next poker?

Poker already had a long-established mystique, built on images of high rollers in deluxe Las Vegas hotel suites, before Internet gambling and the World Series of Poker inspired a wider appreciation of the mental calculations taking place around the table behind low-brimmed caps and sunglasses.

Ping pong, by contrast, is more closely associated with suburban basements and harsh fluorescent lights. Even so, the International Olympic Committee says table tennis is the world’s leading participation sport, with 40 million competitive players world-wide and tens of millions more playing for fun …

Competition started in March, with local Anheuser-Busch distributors supplying Bud Light-branded ping pong tables to some 4,600 bars where regional competitions are under way. Winners can land an invitation to the tournament finals and play for the $100,000 prize in Las Vegas in late June …

That event, which will also include professionals, will be the focus of a two-hour television special that the organizers plan to air on Walt Disney’s ESPN in September.

Mr. Friedman and Jordan Wynn, executive of Mark Gordon Co., say they noticed ping pong re-emerging in popular culture over the past year. The posse on the HBO series “Entourage” played during an episode, for example, and hip-hop star 50 Cent had a ping-pong theme at his birthday party.

“The question was could we take this game out of the basement and the cluttered garages,” says Mr. Friedman. “We think the timing is just right.”

Mr. Wynn goes so far as to suggest ping pong has sex appeal. “It’s taking on this cool cultural space of short-shorts and retro headbands, and it’s kind of goofy, but it’s also got people who take it very seriously,” Mr. Wynn says. “It’s poker eight years ago.”

Edit by SAC

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Full Article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124078190514657141.html

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Twitter Loses Touch … Fritters Away SUbscribers

May 7, 2009

Excerpted from Ad Age, “Why Twitter’s Reach Is Limited” By Abbey Klaassen, April 28, 2009

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Over the past few weeks we’ve seen countless stories about the “Oprah effect” on Twitter — TechCrunch suggested more than one million people signed up and many a blog linked to Hitwise data that suggested the talk-show doyenne’s endorsement of the service led to a 43% spike in Twitter traffic.

While those numbers are important, the breathless reports have not accounted for what people do after they sign up for a Twitter account. Creating a Twitter account doesn’t equal becoming an uber-user, or even a casual user, of the micro-blogging site. Nielsen Online data suggest more than 60% of people who sign up for Twitter abandon the service.

David Martin, VP-primary research at Nielsen Online, posted the data on the company’s blog, noting that Twitter’s retention rate — the percentage of a given month’s audience that comes back the following month — hovers around 40%. So that means only 40% of the people who visited Twitter last month will come back this month. However, that number is slightly higher than the 30% retention rate Twitter saw before Oprah Winfrey’s endorsement

One problem, Mr. Martin noted, is that it’s very hard to grow reach when that much of your audience fails to return month after month. He plotted the reach and retention rates of the major websites Nielsen follows and came up with an audience curve that suggests that at Twitter’s current retention rate, it will only reach about 10% of online consumers …

“Twitter has really big hype — it’s the hype that much bigger sites like MySpace or Facebook had when they were coming up … But it’s just not going to live up to that hype in the long run, audience-wise, if it can’t get retention up.”

He also looked at MySpace and Facebook’s retention in their first few years, when their reach looked more like Twitter’s current reach. Even then, the two larger social networks had steadily growing retention rates of more than 40%, which moved closer to 60% as time went on. Twitter’s retention rates, on the other hand, have fluctuated without passing 40%.

Twitter’s user interface can be confusing to people who aren’t familiar with the service, from the hard-to-follow conversation threads to the codes for direct messaging, “retweeting” and “hashtags.” … On the flip side, said Mr. Martin, to “keep people engaged there has to be interesting content. And Oprah, to a large number of Americans, is interesting content. If people continue to stay engaged and are compelled to stay on the site, there’s no reason that engagement shouldn’t go up. But it’s yet to be seen.”

Edit by SAC

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Full Article:
http://adage.com/digital/article?article_id=136318

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Does anybody really think that Chrysler will survive?

May 6, 2009

Ken’s Take: Let’s see …. a union controlled company, run by Italian automakers, cranking out inherently unprofitable clown cars.  Does that sound like a formula for success to you?  Call me cynical, but I’m betting under on this one.

Great editorial in WSJ today titled “Return of Le Car”.   Worth reading.  Hear are a few of the highlights.

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Last week Pres. Obama said that he hoped you would buy an “American car” — though apparently not one built in a red state in a plant owned by Japanese or German investors. He meant a car built by a company headquartered in Detroit, even if the car itself is assembled in Mexico or Canada. How confusing.

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Chrysler would be in deep yogurt in any case amid the market collapse, but its other problem is a decent franchise in Jeeps, muscle cars, minivans and pickups — and nothing to meet Congress’s stiff new “corporate average” fuel economy rules, and nobody to supply the billions to develop such vehicles and (inevitably) bribe customers to drive them off the lots.

Daimler, its previous parent, certainly had no desire to fund such profitless extravagance. The Germans took a lot of guff but they’re the ones laughing now. They sold their majority stake in Chrysler just months after Democrats took over Congress, and just weeks after President Bush began blathering about “oil addiction” and echoing Democratic demands for stringent new fuel-mileage rules (after opposing them for years).

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Not since Renault teamed up with AMC to bring you Le Car has an odder pairing been seen — or a less promising one.

Credulous media accounts insist the only challenge now is whether Chrysler can hang on for two years until Fiat begins churning out U.S. versions of its popular European models in U.S. factories. Goodness.  Unless gasoline prices go to $5 a gallon,no one can be so foolish as  to believe making and selling teensy eurocars in the U.S. is anybody’s route to salvation. Even in Europe…  a move to bigger, more powerful cars is underway. Motorists are getting fatter and older — and unwilling to contort themselves to get in and out of a car … which ought to caution against any hope that the pixie car will sell particularly well in the U.S.

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Trying to beat Toyota at its own game is a nonstarter. Toyota sets a standard of quality and technology that all must meet — that’s the price of admission. But “what we have that Toyota does not have ?”

Some [Obama auto] task force members acknowledge that the drive for profitability is likely to collide with Mr. Obama’s fuel-efficiency and low-emission goals.”

When will Team Obama explain exactly how Chrysler is supposed to make money building the “green cars” Mr. Obama wants it to build.   You already know the answer: You, the taxpayer, have not finished chipping in to keep Fiat-Chrysler alive.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124157578117190427.html

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Some Brands Never Die: Liquidators License Bankrupt Brand Names

May 6, 2009

Excerpted from New York Times, “Brand Names Live After Stores Close”, by Amy Zipkin, April 14, 2009

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In the last year, a string of retailers have gone into bankruptcy — Sharper Image, Linens ’n Things, Circuit City and Fortunoff among them. But while the stores have disappeared, their names live on.

And the companies that have breathed new life into these brand names are, paradoxically, some of the same ones that had led the stores through their dying days — the liquidators.

Liquidators have bought the rights to use the names of Sharper Image, Linens ’n Things and Bombay, the onetime furniture retailer. The liquidators — who prefer to be known as asset recovery specialists — have also expressed an interest in buying the Circuit City and Fortunoff names.

Already, new merchandise with the Sharper Image name is available at retailers like Macy’s, J. C. Penney and Bed, Bath & Beyond. A new Web site for the Linens ’n Things brand, lnt.com, is up and running. In addition to the bedding and bath products the chain was known for, the site also carries toys, pet products and baby accouterments.

Liquidators spent about $175 million to acquire the Sharper Image, Linens ’n Things and Bombay names and predict a billion dollars a year in sales for Sharper Image and Linens ’n Things in each of the next five years.

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The value of brand names is being redefined, as “the liquidators are taking the definition of assets and extending them to the brands themselves.” 

The liquidators say they see themselves as brand licensing experts who will receive royalties for the products without the need to pay rent or a sales staff. “It’s not a capital-intensive business. It’s a royalty-driven business. It’s like an annuity.”

Those familiar with intellectual property rights say there is no guarantee that a revived brand will be successful after a retailer has gone under. The brands will compete with others that do not have troubled histories.  Still, with the recession continuing, merchandise with a familiar name may prove attractive to consumers.

Edit by DAF

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Full article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/14/business/14liquidate.html?ref=business&pagewanted=print

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Making Money in Magazines: Is It Time for a New Pricing Model?

May 6, 2009

Excerpted from New York Times, “In Switch, Magazines Think About Raising Prices”, by Stephanie Clifford, April 13, 2009

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Most big magazines’ subscriptions cost on average little more than a dollar an issue. But now, as they consider the decline in advertising and the success of magazines that have increased prices recently, some publishers are wondering whether they can raise their prices without losing subscribers.

“We’re realizing that the product is undervalued,” said the chief marketing officer of Hearst Magazines, which raised cover prices on more than half of its magazines last year and plans to raise subscription prices this year.

Publishers have long set low subscription prices and have even lost money doing so, assuming that the real money came from ads. Subscription revenue was gravy.

It is a “model where magazines essentially try to gain as many subscribers as they can and allow advertising to pay the bills.”

* * * * *

“Think about the cost of a movie ticket. Think about the cost of your subscription for cable television. Think about the cost of going to a sporting event,” Mr. Clinton, the Hearst marketing chief, said. Those industries, he said, “have kept pace in passing on more of the cost to the consumer, and the consumer’s willing to pay for it.”

The Economist is leading the charge on expensive subscriptions, and its success is one reason publishers are rethinking their approaches. It is a news magazine with an extraordinarily high cover price — raised to $6.99 late last year — and subscription price, about $100 a year on average.

Even though The Economist is relatively expensive, its circulation has increased sharply in the last four years. Subscriptions are up 60 percent since 2004, and newsstand sales have risen 50 percent, according to the audit bureau.

“We get more money out of our readers than advertisers, and that’s a very different model,” said senior vice president for marketing in the Americas at the Economist Group. “We’ll never discount the kind of content we have.”

* * * * *

The Economist’s readers, it could be argued, are professionals who can afford price increases. But one of the most popular and expensive mass magazines, People, has also been raising its prices without losing readers.

The subscription price for People has risen about 5 percent, to $104 a year, in the last four years. The cover price has risen 21 percent, to an average of $4.09 . In that time, People’s subscription and newsstand sales have both increased slightly.

“Our strategy right now is to maintain a premium price on both sides of the equation,” said the president and group publisher of Time Inc.’s (People’s) style and entertainment group.

* * * * *

Interestingly, whether consumers pay $5 or $50 for a subscription does not affect their perception of the magazine, according to a study conducted four years ago by the media consultant Rebecca McPheters.

Given those findings, the price a consumer pays should not matter to advertisers, since it does not affect the reader’s attitude toward the magazine–“the fact is, the pricing comes as a result of what the consumer is willing to pay.”

Given the economy, it may not be “a propitious moment to launch this,” said Victor S. Navasky, chairman of The Columbia Journalism Review, but “to the extent that the publication is aimed at a segment of the population that can afford it, why not?”

Edit by DAF

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Full article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/13/business/media/13circ.html?ref=media&pagewanted=print

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School choice: kids or unions … don’t bet on the kids

May 5, 2009

I’m a big fan of charter schools and vouchers … the latter giving motivated families to send their children to provably better schools. 

Congress — with Obama approval —  is about to kill the demonstrably successful DC voucher program.  Why? Because kids don’t vote but union members do.  Pretty sad.

There are a sprinkling of articles today on the hypocrisy of government reps on the subject.  They boil down to this fundamental argument:

“Some hypocrisies are apparently more equal than others. If, for example, you are a politician who preaches “traditional values” and you get caught in a hotel with a woman who is not your wife, the press is going to have a field day with your tartuffery.

If, however, you are a pol who piously tells inner-city families that public schools are the answer — and you do this while safely ensconcing your own kids in some private haven — the press corps mostly winks.

As strong as the outright opposition may be, perhaps the biggest problem faced by these parents is the Beltway’s complicity in a smarmy double standard. Two weeks ago, the Heritage Foundation highlighted this double standard with the release of a new study showing that members of Congress are sending or have sent their children to private schools …  at a rate that’s more than three times the rate for rest of America.

For Democrats especially, their choice of a private school for their own families tends to make them opponents of choice for others. The bargain the teachers unions offer is this: We won’t fuss about private or parochial schools for your children, provided you don’t help any other kid get the same chance.”

From the Wall Street Journal
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124147923132785121.html

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Goldman to Repay TARP Funds…but Feds May Not Let Them!

May 5, 2009

The TARP saga continues …

Excerpted from New York Times, “Goldman Using Share Sale to Return Bailout Funds”, by Louise Story, April 15, 2009

Six months after accepting a financial lifeline from Washington, a newly profitable Goldman Sachs is pushing to return the billions of taxpayer dollars that it received in an effort to extricate itself from heightened government control.

If successful, Goldman would become the first major bank to return funds received under the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. Such a step would probably enable Goldman — long one of the most lucrative places to work on Wall Street — to free itself from government-imposed restrictions on compensation.

It is unclear how quickly Goldman might be allowed to return the $10 billion it accepted last October. Goldman is not allowed to return the money without the approval of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve, which both declined to comment on Monday.

One analyst comments, “Goldman can walk the halls of Congress waving a check, but is it in the best interest of the marketplace for them to pay it back?”

* * * * *

Goldman said on Monday that it would seek to raise $5 billion by selling new common stock and use the proceeds, along with other funds, to repay the government.

“We just think that operating our business without the government capital would be an easier thing to do.  We’d be under less scrutiny, and under less pressure.”

Edit by DAF

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Full article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/15/business/15goldman.html?ref=business&pagewanted=print

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Call it a push after 100 Days … the stock market, that is.

May 4, 2009

OK, so where do we stand in the market after 100 days of change & hope.

The bad news: right where we started .

The good news: right where we started.

Obama inherited a Dow that was hovering around 8,500 … higher around election time … lower after th election … then hanging in a narrow range.

After a sell-off to under 7,000  – the market has fought it’s way back into the range between 8,000 and 8,500.

So, I’ve got to stop saying that Obam killed the market (he did, but I don’t have the proof yet) … and other folks have to quit talking about an Obama rally. 

Fair enough ?

image

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Is it too soon to think about marketing AFTER the recession?

May 4, 2009

Excerpted from HBS Working Knowledge, “Marketing After the Recession”, John Quelch March 18, 2009

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Congratulations. Your business is surviving the recession. You made the necessary adjustments, weeded out under-performing distributors, shed unprofitable or unreliable customers, deleted poor-selling products from your portfolio, and concentrated your marketing dollars on media and channels that you could prove delivered a strong return on investment. You may have downsized, voluntarily or involuntarily, since the recession began; but at least you’re still in business.

Now, you are waiting for the recovery, the chance to again have some fun and make some money. Here are my seven top recommendations for marketers looking to plan ahead:

Focus on high-potential customers. Make sure you focus on building relationships with ambitious customers in growth industries where pent-up demand is going to be unleashed once the economy turns the corner. If you’re running a B2C business, focus on cash-rich or long-term-oriented consumers to lead you into recovery. But don’t forget to stock up to take advantage of the pent-up demand that will be unleashed once other consumers get their confidence back.

Don’t assume a return to normal. The longer and deeper the recession, the more likely consumers will adjust their attitudes and behaviors permanently. Their coping mechanisms may become ingrained and define a new normal. In addition, the competitive landscape will have changed. A competitive shakeout along with new product launches may mean consumers are looking at your products and services through new lenses. Listen closely to your customers and revise your market segmentation assumptions.

Assess your target customers’ trust in your brand. Clearly, trust in financial services brands has taken a beating. Many well-known brands like Merrill Lynch will simply never win back consumer confidence; if you are working for such a brand, dust off your CV and move on. But bad behavior in the financial services sector has bruised trust in all corporate brands. Confirm that your target customers still trust you but plan to add service support and hold their hand more firmly in the short term, even though your service quality, measured objectively, has remained constant.

Stay focused on costs. Many manufacturing industries (as opposed to services industries) are plagued by global overcapacity, relative even to pre-recession demand. Combined with excess inventories in the supply chain, especially in consumer durables, the result will be continuing downward pressure on prices. Economic recovery will not allow producers to let up on tightening cost controls and improving productivity.

Know your lead indicators. Every good marketer knows the specific indicators, macro or micro, that predict demand for his or her product in the next period. Use common sense. If the Wal-Mart parking lot looks less crowded, some consumers are probably migrating back to Target and vice versa.

Develop scenarios. How long the current recession will last is widely debated. And whether the eventual economic recovery will be gradual or dramatic is equally unknown. Marketers planning for 2009 and 2010 should bear in mind Peter Drucker’s wise advice: “A strategy is a sense of direction around which to improvise.” Know how you can source supplies and expand distribution in a hurry if demand suddenly spikes. Don’t wait for permission. Most companies will not begin reinvesting until the Wall Street Journal or Ben Bernanke officially declare the recovery underway. Get ahead of the crowd. Craft your recovery plan now, and pull the trigger when your lead indicators say go.

Smart hedging has outweighed smart marketing. The current recession has not been kind to marketers. In many multinationals, the positive financial impacts of recession-busting marketing plans have been obliterated by commodity price volatility and weaker-than-expected overseas earnings due to the unexpected strengthening of the dollar. Economic recovery will bring greater commodity price and exchange rate predictability. Marketing will again come to the fore as a differentiator between successful businesses and also-rans.

Edit by NRV
Full article:
http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/6139.html

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Is the honeymoon over for FREE user-generated content?

May 4, 2009

Excerpted from Slate, “Do You Think Bandwidth Grows on Trees” by Farhad Manjoo, April 14, 2009

* * * * *

The darlings of the the Internet…websites built on user-generated content, might seem like an extension of the “Long Tail” concept (all you need are a website and users, right?), but this article points out that these ventures aren’t as profitable as you may think.  The large amount of storage and bandwidth needed for content means that companies need to find a way to cover this high storage and distribution cost if they plan to make a profit (or at least break-even).   Since services are typically free, they rely on advertising to cover these costs, but it doesn’t seem like that is enough.

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Everyone knows that print newspapers are our generation’s horse-and-buggy; in the most wired cities, they’ve been pummeled by competition from the Web. But it might surprise you to learn that one of the largest and most-celebrated new-media ventures is burning through cash at a rate that makes newspapers look like wise investments. It’s called YouTube: According a recent report by analysts at the financial-services company Credit Suisse, Google will lose $470 million on the video-sharing site this year alone. To put it another way, the Boston Globe, which is on track to lose $85 million in 2009, is five times more profitable—or, rather, less unprofitable—than YouTube. All so you can watch this helium-voiced oddball whenever you want.

YouTube’s troubles are surprisingly similar to those faced by newspapers. Just like your local daily, the company is struggling to sell enough in advertising to cover the enormous costs of storing and distributing its content. Newspapers have to pay to publish and deliver dead trees; YouTube has to pay for a gargantuan Internet connection to send videos to your computer and the millions of others who are demanding the most recent Dramatic Chipmunk mash-up. Google doesn’t break out YouTube’s profits and losses on its earnings statements, and of course it’s possible that Credit Suisse’s estimates are off. But if the analysts are at all close, YouTube, which Google bought in 2006, is in big trouble.

There’s a simple reason for this: Advertisers don’t like paying very much to support homemade photos and videos. As a result, the economics of user-generated sites are even more crushing than those of the newspaper business. At least newspapers see a proportional relationship between circulation and revenues—when the paper publishes great stories, it attracts more readers, and, in time, more advertisers. At YouTube, the relationship can be backward: The videos that get the most clicks—and are thus most expensive for YouTube to carry—trend toward the sort of lewd or random flavor that doesn’t sit well with advertisers. 

…YouTube sells ads on fewer than 10 percent of its videos. Credit Suisse estimates that 375 million people around the world will play about 75 billion YouTube videos this year. To serve up all these streams, the company has to pay for a broadband connection capable of hurtling data at the equivalent of 30 million megabits-per-second—about 6 million times as fast as your home Internet connection. All this bandwidth costs Google $360 million a year, the analysts estimate. Then there’s the cost of the videos themselves: Even though many of the site’s most popular content is uploaded for free from users, Credit Suisse says YouTube spends about $250 million a year to acquire licenses to broadcast professionally produced videos. Add in all other expenses, and the cost of running YouTube for one year exceeds $700 million. But the company makes only a fraction of that back in advertising—about $240 million in revenues for 2009, according to the report.

YouTube isn’t alone in Poor House 2.0. Yahoo bought the popular photo-sharing site Flickr in 2005, and though the service might be marginally profitable, it certainly hasn’t added appreciably to Yahoo’s bottom line. (Yahoo similarly doesn’t break out Flickr’s financials.) Facebook provides an even better example. The social network is running up a huge tab to store and serve up all the photos, videos, and other junk you stuff into your profile. Last year, TechCrunch reported that Facebook spends $1 million a month on electricity, $500,000 a month on bandwidth, and up to $2 million per week on new servers to keep up with its users’ insatiable photo-uploading needs. (Members post nearly a billion photos every month.) But Facebook gets relatively little in return for storing all your memories. Ad rates on its network are terribly low, the company doesn’t make a profit, and it hasn’t shed any light on how it will make good on investments that valued the company at $15 billion.

For all the frenzy surrounding citizen-produced media, the content that seems to do best online is the same stuff that did well offline—content produced by professionals. My colleague Jack Shafer recently listed the many services that people are willing to pay for online. They include music from iTunes, game videos from MLB.TV, reviews from Consumer Reports, and articles from the Wall Street Journal—and nothing made on some dude’s cell phone. Or look at Hulu, the video site that shows TV shows and movies. It attracts far less traffic than YouTube does (and thus pays far less for bandwidth). But because advertisers are willing to pay much more to be featured on its videos, Hulu is on track to match YouTube’s revenues and with much lower overhead.

YouTube has been trying to catch up to Hulu in the non-user-generated video business. It has signed content-licensing deals with several Hollywood studios and recording companies in the hopes that it can attract an audience—and advertisers—for the kind of quality programming we now run to Hulu for. But as Benjamin Wayne points out, those deals won’t solve YouTube’s fundamental problem; even if it does begin to make respectable profits from, say, showing old feature films, it’ll still have to keep paying huge infrastructure costs to host the world’s home videos. It’s possible that over the next few years, Google’s engineers could find a way to reduce dramatically the costs of hosting such a service. (They’re capable of amazing things.) But that proposition is iffy. As Wayne argues, there’s a very real possibility that YouTube as we know it is doomed. The company may have to institute restrictions to keep its bandwidth in check, or it could unveil any number of pay-per-use schemes (as some other video sites have done). Then the video free-for-all that we’ve grown to love will come to an end.

That would be unfortunate. Time wasn’t wrong: YouTube and its fellow user-contributed sites really did change the world. Too bad nobody could find a way to pay for it.

Edit by NRV
Full article
:http://www.slate.com/id/2216162/pagenum/all/#p2

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"If Japanese automakers can make a profitable hybid, why can't American automakers?"

May 1, 2009

That’s the question that President Obama posed in his 100 day press conference.

The answer: According to the Washington Post, they (the Japanese) can’t make a profitable hybrid — even the Prius loses money!  So, add on a few UAW work rules and legacy costs and you get a mega loss generator … probably supported by extensive government subsidies.

P.S. to President Obama — we didn’t invent the auto — the Germans did (ever hear of Mercedes Benz ?)

P.P.S. to Pres. Obama — hire a fact-checker

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Excerpted from Washington Post, “The Car of the Future — but at What Cost?”, Steven Mufson, November 25, 2008

Hybrid Vehicles Are Popular, but Making Them Profitable Is a Challenge

Sen. Charles E. Schumer said last week. “We need a business model based on cars of the future, and we already know what that future is: the plug-in hybrid electric car. ”But the car company Schumer and other lawmakers envision for the future could turn out to be a money-losing operation, not part of a “sustainable U.S. auto industry.”

That’s because car manufacturers still haven’t figured out how to produce hybrid and plug-in vehicles cheaply enough to make money on them.

After a decade of relative success with its hybrid Prius, Toyota has sold about a million of the cars and is still widely believed by analysts to be losing money on each one sold.

U.S. lawmakers want the companies to produce automobiles of the future, using advanced technologies and featuring hybrid or plug-in vehicles. But there’s no guarantee that the new business model would be any more viable than the current one.

Automobile experts estimate that the battery in a plug-in vehicle could add at least $8,000 to the cost of a car, maybe considerably more. Most Americans will be unwilling to pay the extra price, especially if gasoline prices languish around $2 a gallon.

GM will have to stake its future on Malibus, the Chevy Cruze, and much more conventional technologies.

“Do you bet on lighter, smaller, more fuel efficient but ultimately less profitable cars or do you hold back a little on technology development and look at new versions of existing cars.

”Many experts say that gas guzzlers will not fade away as long as Congress fails to impose higher taxes on gasoline to steer people toward fuel-efficient cars.

GM and other car companies, while preparing plug-in vehicles, are more likely to live or die based on the sales of conventional cars that get better fuel efficiency through improved transmissions, reduced weight or hybrid technology.

”There’s fluff and there’s reality … The fluff is the Chevy Volt . . . That’s not going to save GM in the next five years. What will save GM is more small sedans and more crossovers. That’s what people are going to be buying.”

Full article:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/24/AR2008112403211.html?wpisrc=newsletter

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One for the good guys who pay their mortgages … Senate blocks mortgage "cramdowns"

May 1, 2009

As loyal readers know, I’ve been opposed to mortgage cramdowns from the get-go. 

In essence, cramdowns reduce the principal owed on a mortgage based on a borrower’s ability to pay.  That is, if a guy took on a mortgage that he couldn’t afford and stops paying, then the lender would have to reduce the amount owed to fit the deadbeat’s budget.  A fundamentally wacky idea for lots or reasons.  Most notably, if lenders had to absorb principal risk on all mortgages, they would naturally just up the interest rates on all mortgages in order to cover the added risk.  In other words, good borrowers would end up subsidizing the deadbeats.

Team Obama was pushing aggressively for cramdowns — to slow foreclosures and spread the wealth (by having good borrowers subsidize bad borrowers).

According to the WSJ:

“Senate Republicans defeated the budget bankruptcy “cramdown” bill …that had easily passed the House and was one of President Obama’s housing priorities.

The cramdown would have allowed bankruptcy judges to rewrite contracts to reduce the amount that people owe on their mortgages. But a bipartisan majority understood that relief for today’s troubled borrowers would be paid with higher rates on the next generation of homeowners, as lenders priced the added risk into mortgage contracts.

Speaking for millions of renters and nondelinquent borrowers, Mr. McConnell said that the vote “ensures that homeowners who pay their bills and follow the rules won’t see an interest-rate hike at the whim of a bankruptcy judge.”

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124113493922575179.html

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iTunes Price Strategy Shifts … Oh no, please don’t make me pay for the (bleep) tracks on the album.

May 1, 2009

Excerpted from WSJ, “Music Labels Push Extras with iTunes Pass” By Ethan Smith, Apr 15, 2009

* * * * *

Record companies, weary of scraping by on 99-cent song downloads and dwindling CD sales, are trying to dress up and reimagine their most profitable product — the album — to woo music fans on Apple Inc.’s iTunes Store.

On Tuesday, Sony Corp.’s Epic Records plans to release a $17 iTunes “pass” for pop band the Fray. The pass delivers songs, video footage and photos, but spaces out the offering over several weeks in the hope of holding consumers’ attention and justifying the premium price …

Apple plans several more subscription-style passes in the coming weeks.The offer is part of a broader strategy among record labels as they try to adapt to a retail landscape now dominated by the iTunes Store, which has become the world’s largest music retailer.

While iTunes has thrown the music industry a lifeline by getting listeners to pay for a product that many had been getting free via illegal file-sharing, it also has created a new set of problems for record labels. The vast majority of iTunes sales are for single-song downloads, while higher-priced album sales have dwindled. Record companies are desperate to find ways, including re-pricing songs, to hook consumers on bigger-ticket products that deliver higher margins.

The release of the Fray’s iTunes pass comes the same day that song prices on the iTunes Store are set for an overhaul. Instead of the longstanding across-the-board price of 99 cents, songs will be priced on a three-tiered system, with new releases or hits costing $1.29, and older tunes at 69 cents. Those occupying the middle ground will still cost 99 cents.

The four major-label groups have been calling for such a shift so they can make more money on their most sought-after releases. But even so, many in the recorded-music industry view consumers’ gravitation to song-by-song downloads as a major economic problem. Among other things, major labels can’t sustain their global marketing and physical distribution infrastructures with transactions that net them pennies apiece …

Though CD sales still account for around 80% of retail music sales in the U.S., they have fallen 20.3% this year alone … Adding in digitally downloaded albums, sales are down 13.5%, compounding a 45% decline in album sales since 2000 …

One downside to the pass idea: It’s something of a grab bag. Fans don’t know exactly what they’ll get. Still, the price isn’t that much more than the cost of many full albums …

Apple has begun offering fans other incentives to trade up from individual songs to full albums. A feature introduced in 2007 called “complete my album” allows a buyer to apply money spent on individual songs toward the cost of the full album it came from …

Eddy Cue, the Apple VP who oversees iTunes, says that “once [an album] gets out the door, you can’t update it, you can’t refresh it, you can’t do anything to it.” But the add-ons allow music companies to keep it new for a longer period.

Edit by SAC

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Full Article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123906011712694965.html

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Nintendo Striking Back at iTunes … It’s No Game !

May 1, 2009

Excerpted from Washington Post, “Nintendo, Biting Back at iTunes”, by Mike Musgrove, April 5, 2009

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Open up the latest portable game gadget from Nintendo, the DSi, and you’ll be able to log onto a new online store carrying a small catalogue of software titles. If you see one that grabs your interest, you can buy and download it to your device on the spot, with prices starting at $2.

This type of purchase probably doesn’t seem exotic any more, thanks largely to Apple. Apple’s App Store, which offers software for its iPhone and iPod Touch, has had 800 million downloads since it opened last summer. Now, other mobile gadgets like Nintendo’s DSi are quickly creating their own retail outlets on the Web.

* * * * *

Some see Apple’s online software store as having hit close to home for Nintendo, which has long dominated the mobile gaming market. The most popular category in Apple’s software store, after all, is entertainment-related software.

DSiWare is “basically a direct response to iTunes . . . Apple definitely came up and bit these guys on the rear end, and this is Nintendo striking back.”

In terms of downloadable content, Apple’s store offers almost 7,000 games. Nintendo’s DSi store launches today with five titles, not including a free Web browser that DSi users can download to their device.

Nintendo says the company has adopted a different strategy than the competition. Just about anybody who pays a fee and passes an inspection by Apple reviewers can sell his software on the iTunes store, but that’s not how Nintendo has approached this market. The roster of titles Nintendo approves for sale on the DSi store will be “more like the content you’ll find at a film festival”, as opposed to its competitors’ catalogues, which are “more akin to YouTube.”

Edit by DAF

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Full article:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/04/AR2009040400098_pf.html 

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Would you rather buy a car from a bankrupt automaker, or from ….

April 30, 2009

An automaker majority owned by the UAW, or …

The United Auto Workers union would eventually own 55% of the stock in a restructured Chrysler LLC under the deal reached by the union and the automaker.

Fiat SpA “eventually” will own 35%, and the U.S. government and Chrysler’s secured lenders together will end up owning 10% of the company once it is reorganized.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124087751929461535.html

An automaker majority owned by the Federal government, with the  UAW owning most of the rest, or …

General Motors outlined a new turnaround plan that would leave the U.S. government controlling the auto maker.

Under the plan, GM is asking for an additional $11.6 billion in government loans, on top of the $15.4 billion it has already received. It envisions giving the government at least half ownership of the company as payment for half of the loans.

At the same time, GM said it would use stock instead of cash to pay off half the $20.4 billion it owes a United Auto Workers fund to cover retiree health care. That stock would leave the union owning about 39% of GM.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124083476254259049.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB124083476254259049.html

Buy a Lexus, BMW, Mercedes, or …

Hmmmm … let me think about that one for a moment

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Easy come, easy go … about that buck-a-day "Making Work Pay" program.

April 29, 2009

Obama’s signature tax cut to “95% of families” was supposed to be a $500 refundable credit (per worker) and $1,000 per household (with more than 1 worker).

Congress pared the plan to $400 per worker — a whopping buck-a-day — and stuck it in the stimulus package.

As recently as yesterday, Obama economist Austan Goolsbee was touting it as “a generous tax break for 95% of workers”.

Uh-oh.

As part of the budget blueprint that will be passed this week (on a party line vote, for sure), Congress will let Obama’s “Making Work Pay” tax credit expire at the end of next year — along with the evil Bush tax breaks for the wealthiest Americans.

Let’s see: a couple of weeks ago, a buck-a-day was a generous tax break that would stimulate the economy; now, according to some Dems, it’s a pittance that will barely be missed.  Which is it ?

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Reported on many sources, including:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/first100days/2009/03/24/senate-democrats-let-obamas-tax-credit-expire-budget-blueprint/

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Worked then, so it should work now. Right? … Big Brands Go for “Nostalgia Marketing”

April 29, 2009

Excerpted from New York Times, “Warm and Fuzzy Makes a Comeback”, by Stuart Elliott, April 7, 2009

* * * * *

As the recession continues taking its toll, marketers are trying to tap into fond memories to help sell what few products shoppers are still buying. The time-machine tactics are primarily evoking four decades — the 1950s through the 1980s.

For instance, on April 20 a beverage unit of PepsiCo will begin an eight-week campaign for “throwback” versions of two soft drinks, Pepsi-Cola and Mountain Dew. The packages and formulas, along with advertising and promotions, will evoke the ’60s and ’70s.

The hope is that warm, fuzzy feelings about the past will help make people feel better about the present and future.

“In a time of anxiety, people are seeking out brands they’re comfortable with and they can trust.”

Those taking part in the trend acknowledge a potential pitfall of nostalgic pitches: They could lead consumers to believe a brand or product is outdated and therefore not for them.

* * * * *

Hard times have frequently inspired fond looks in the rear-view mirror. There was a nostalgia boom during World War II, as evidenced by movies like “Meet Me in St. Louis” and songs like “Long Ago and Far Away.”

In the ’60s, the American Tobacco Company, now part of Reynolds American, introduced a filtered version of one of its first national cigarette brands, Sweet Caporal.

In the economic turbulence of the ’70s, there was a fad for nostalgia for the ’50s. The ’60s made a comeback in the ’80s and the ’70s were revived in the ’90s.

Edit by DAF

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Full article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/07/business/media/07adco.html?ref=media&pagewanted=print

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Getting Readers to Pay for Online News: A New Business Model for a Battered Industry

April 29, 2009

Ken’s Take: Didn’t AOL live (and die) by trying to charge folks for largely undifferentiated content?  Didn’t work for them, and won’t work for these guys.

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Excerpted from New York Times, “They Pay for Cable, Music and Extra Bags. How About News?”, by Richard Perez-Pena and Tim Arango, April 8, 2009

Just a year ago, most media companies believed the formula for Internet success was to offer free content, build an audience and rake in advertising dollars. Now, with the recession battering advertising online, in print and on television, media executives are contemplating a tougher trick: making the consumer pay.

Publishers like Hearst Newspapers, The New York Times and Time Inc.are drawing up plans for possible Internet fees.

“People reading news for free on the Web, that’s got to change,” Rupert Murdoch said last week at a cable industry conference in Washington.

Only a few publishers have tried such a transition, with mixed results. The Los Angeles Times and The New York Times each tried charging for access to some content online, then dropped the requirement because it cost them audience and advertising revenue.

But from networks selling downloads of TV shows, to music companies trying to curb file-sharing, to struggling newspapers and magazines, the make-or-break question is this: How do you get consumers to pay for something they have grown used to getting free?

* * * * *

Some industries have pulled it off. Coca-Cola took tap water, filtered it and called it Dasani, and makes millions of dollars a year. People who used to ask why anyone would pay for television now subscribe to cable and TiVo. Airlines charge for luggage, meals, even pillows. And some music fans who have downloaded pirated songs are also patrons of iTunes.

All of these success stories offered the consumer something extra, even if it was just convenience.

* * * * *

“With newspapers and magazines, there have to be features you can’t get anywhere else, and maybe part of what you would pay for is the privilege of helping the business survive, but that is more of a difficult sell.”

By adding free features like e-mail alerts, blogs, discussion forums and video, news organizations are trying to persuade readers that they provide something more valuable than the aggregators and blogs that attract news readers online.

“You have to expect that at first, most of your customers won’t go along,” said a professor at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. “You have to train people — the academic word is ‘educate’ — to expect to pay, and unfortunately for media companies, they’ve trained people to expect the opposite.”

Edit by DAF

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Full article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/08/business/media/08pay.html?ref=media&pagewanted=print

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A Milli Vanilli moment …

April 28, 2009

You’ve probably asked yourself: “What if the teleprompter goes awry?”

Here’s a recap from Politico, and a link to the video:

“President Obama’s speech at the National Academy of Sciences Monday morning hit a brief snag when Obama got ahead of his script.

Laying his plan for a President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, Obama began to name the members of PCAST listed in his prepared remarks – before realizing he’d already introduced them, earlier in his speech.

“In addition to John – sorry, the – I just noticed I jumped the gun here,” Obama said, pausing for several seconds as he looked at the prompter. “Go ahead. Move it up. I had already introduced all you guys.”

The audience, which gave the president a warm reception, responded with a quiet laugh.”

Video:
http://www.politico.com/politico44/perm/0409/obama_gets_ahead_of_prompter_3813cbcb-1e4a-44c6-b1e7-26017e7b70c2.html

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When you hear the word "value", grab your wallet !

April 28, 2009

Ken’s Take: I often say in class that “value” is the most over-used and mis-used word in marketing.  Glad to see that somebody else has noticed, too.

Excerpted from Brandweek “Enough With the Value Messages Already,” By Todd Wasserman, Apr 11, 2009

Perhaps no word in the marketing lexicon has been abused as much …  as “value.”Marketing messages of this stripe are one strategy for addressing the fact that consumers are loath to open their wallets these days. But they’re also only one alternative to cutting prices. It seems like marketers aren’t exploring others.

An alternative way to go at it, for instance … is to create a “fighter brand” like Procter & Gamble did in 1976 with its Luvs diapers, which were meant to be a hedge against store brands while Pampers held down the high end of the market.

Still another tactic—and, lately, a more common one—is what some are calling “value brands.” Paradoxically, though, value brands may be the most expensive solution to the problem, which is why you don’t see a lot of them kicked off these days. Marketers who have the wherewithal to launch a value brand in this climate would probably be rewarded. But in case not, there are still many other ways of attacking the problem.

One of the biggest proponents of value brands is Martin Bishop, director of brand strategy for Landor Associates … Bishop differentiates value brands from fighter brands this way: “Unlike defensive fighter brands, value brands respond proactively and aggressively to opportunities in the value market. Instead of defending the flagship brand, these brands take advantage of a clear value opportunity. Their purpose is not to defend the status quo, but to take advantage of a new market opportunity” …

Red Bicyclette from E&J Gallo, for instance, “built an identity that is entirely separate from that of its parent company’s brand.” The brand is cheap wine with an adventurous and fun attitude—which is a different thing, Bishop says, from just cheap wine …

If you had to pull out one thing that separates a value brand from a fighter brand then, it would be that the brand has more going for it than just price. It’s also got some attitude in there as well …

In Bishop’s view, a value brand is a much better proposition, but … in this climate it’s probably too expensive an option for most marketers. In other words, it’s something that would have been nice to have launched two or three years ago, but is off the table today …

Luckily, marketers have other weapons in their arsenal. Bishop pointed out that when Nescafé wanted to grow sales in the Philippines, the company was very conscious about cheapening its brands, so it addressed another variable—portion sizes—and came out with single-serve packets that didn’t skimp on quality …

Unfortunately, right now such solutions (just like disposable income) seem to be in short supply. Instead of experimenting with value brands, fighter brands, portion sizes and portfolios, marketers are simply hurling the word “value” at consumers and hoping it’ll mean something to them. As everyone humps the same tune, all that expensive messaging could turn out to have no value at all.

Edit by SAC

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Full Article:
http://www.brandweek.com/bw/content_display/news-and-features/direct/e3id54466e9215cc2baf2a798becbda167a

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School reform means doing what’s best for kids … unless the unions object, that is.

April 27, 2009

Ken’s Take: I haven’t bought into the line that Pres Obama surrounds himself with good people.  Consider Biden, Geithner, Napolitano for starters.  But, I was enthusiatic re: Arnie Duncan — Obama’s pick for Sec. of Education.  That is, enthusiastic until his first official action: bowing to the teacher’s union and killing the Washington DC school voucher program.  Read on …

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Arnie Duncan,  U.S. secretary of education, in a WSJ op-ed:

“When parents recognize which schools are failing to educate their children, they will demand more effective options for their kids.

The only open question is whether or not we have the collective political will to face the hard facts about American education. We must close the achievement gap by pursuing what works best for kids, regardless of ideology. In the path to a better education system, that’s the only test that really matters.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124035679795740971.html

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From the Heritage Foundation Daily Wire:

Earlier this month, Duncan sent letters to 200 District of Columbia low-income families informing them that he was taking back the $7,500 in scholarship vouchers that the D.C. Opportunity Scholarship program had previously awarded them.

The evidence is in. The D.C. Opportunity Scholarship program works.

A Department of Education study showed the students in the scholarship program the longest performed at reading level approximately 1.5 to 2 full school years ahead of students who applied but were not lucky enough to be admitted to the program. But instead of “pursuing what works best for kids, regardless of ideology” Duncan did the exact opposite. He moved to kill the program by sending the rescission letters mentioned above.

The Washington Post explained why:

“It’s clear, though, from how the destruction of the program is being orchestrated, that issues such as parents’ needs, student performance and program effectiveness don’t matter next to the political demands of teachers’ unions.”

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High-speed trains: Faster than a car … and just about as profitable.

April 27, 2009

Business Week says:

“By committing $13 billion to high-speed train travel, the Obama Administration is giving long-dormant projects a boost

A priority is a line that would whiz passengers 520 miles from Anaheim to San Francisco in less than three hours and upgrades of Amtrak service in New England and the Midwest to reach speeds of up to 150 mph.”

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The article also notes:

(1) U.S. government analysts concede that it’s impossible to run these hugely expensive networks profitably.

(2) Among the interested investors: Japan Railway, Bombardier, Kawasaki, and Siemens. (Notice anything “interesting” about the list?)

The article glosses over our national success running Amtrak.

That sucking sound you hear is more of money leaving your wallet (assuming that you’re in the half of Americans who pay income taxes)

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Full article: Business Week, “U.S. High-Speed Train Projects Get a Push”, April 23, 2009
http://www.businessweek.com/print/magazine/content/09_18/b4129029604145.htm

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Looks like a car, drives like a car … according to Nissan, it’s a "Mobile Device"

April 27, 2009

Excerpted from New York Times, “With the Car Industry in Trouble, Nissan Rolls Out the Mobile Device”, by Stuart Elliott, April 5, 2009

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Nissan Motors is betting an estimated $20 million that a spirited campaign can get drivers to purchase the Nissan Cube–a cute, smallish car scheduled to go on sale on May 5.

And scratch the word “car,” for the campaign to introduce the Cube in the United States refers to the vehicle as a “mobile device.”

* * * * *

The phrase, borrowed from the digital domain, signals that the intended market for the Cube is younger drivers. It also signals the focus of the campaign: presenting the Cube as a part of a fun, busy life that can be customized and personalized as easily as a cellphone ring tone or a Facebook page.

To underscore all that, the campaign borrows terms from technology like “search engine,” “browse,” “storage capacity,” “add friends” and “set preferences” to describe features of the Cube. And the media mix skews decidedly toward nontraditional elements like iPhone games, wallpapers, text messaging, the Internet and MP3 downloads.

* * * * *

The Cube is entering a crowded category of the depressed auto market composed of niche models meant as emotional purchases rather than rational. Such cars are intended to attract attention for unusual design rather than horsepower, bling or fuel economy.

Nissan comments, “This is a tough time to bring anything out, whether a car or a new TV. So we decided we wouldn’t think about it as a car,” he added, but rather “position it as designed to bring young people together — like every mobile device they have.”

Edit by DAF

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Full article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/06/business/media/06adco.html?ref=media&pagewanted=print

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The Law of Small Numbers … Measuring your MySpace ROI

April 27, 2009

Excerpted from Ad Age, “Study: ROI May Be Measurable in Facebook, MySpace After All” By Jack Neff, Apr 13, 2009

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Package-goods brands are still cautious about social media, figuring that the return on investment can’t be accurately measured. After all, marketing on Facebook or MySpace might generate a conversation but not necessarily a sale. Now, however, a method is emerging to relate one to the other, potentially eliminating a major impediment.

Recent research from ComScore, MySpace and Dunnhumby … suggests that even relatively small outlays on social networks by package-goods brands can result in offline sales impact and deliver positive return on investment.

Generally, the ROI tool of choice for consumer package goods — marketing-mix models that rely on econometric analysis of changes in retail scanner data — can’t pick up the impact of the relatively small five- and six-figure outlays package-goods brands make on digital media.

To overcome that, MySpace teamed with ComScore, which uses a panel of more than 1 million people in the U.S. to track internet usage, and Dunnhumby, which runs loyalty programs for supermarket retailers and has access to loyalty-card purchase data from 59 million people in the U.S. …

One of the first studies was for an unnamed personal-care brand that ran a $1 million campaign on MySpace last year, including a contest in which members submitted videos of themselves and friends for others in the network to vote on … The program also included online couponing.

By the standards marketers sometimes use to measure digital-ad effectiveness, the MySpace effort wasn’t overwhelming. Of 76.9 million people exposed to the campaign … fewer than 1%, visited an advertiser page on MySpace, though roughly half who did (358,000) visited the advertiser’s website.

But by the measure that matters most, sales, the campaign appeared to pay off nicely. It produced $1.28 million in offline sales, as measured by Dunnhumby, which compared purchases among shoppers not exposed to the campaign with purchases among those who were. That amounted to a 28% return on investment, not counting returns from repeat sales among consumers the brand won via the campaign …

Particularly by package-goods standards, that $1 million digital outlay with one site was large … While a campaign that reaches nearly 77 million people is certainly large enough to generate a read in marketing-mix models, the combination of the ComScore and Dunnhumby panels into a single-source database … holds promise for more-accurately measuring many smaller efforts …

The bigger question is whether the ROI will hold up for bigger efforts, he said, justifying budgets similar to what consumer-package-goods brands spend on TV and magazines.

Digital is “incredibly efficient, because the cost per thousand is low … But it’s just not moving a lot of volume yet. And, of course, what you always grapple with is if they suddenly went [from $1 million] to $10 million in digital, would the return stay where it is? … I think the answer is no.” But it’s also a question he said no CPG brand appears to have tried to answer yet.

Edit by SAC

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Full Article:
http://adage.com/digital/article?article_id=135940

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Feds Hire BCG to Advise Detroit … so, what’s new ?

April 25, 2009

Ken’s Take: For years,  Detroit has been a huge cash cow for consultants.  Some things don’t change, I guess.

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The government will pay the Boston Consulting Group as much as $7 million to advise General Motors and Chrysler as they work to pare costs and overhaul operations, according to a federal award notice. G.M., which received $13.4 billion in federal money, is trying to avoid a potential June 1 bankruptcy. Chrysler, which received $4 billion, has an April 30 deadline to pare debt and complete an alliance with Fiat.

“A very significant portion” of Boston Consulting’s work will be to analyze G.M.’s restructuring plan and Chrysler’s proposed alliance with Fiat, according to the notice posted on a government procurement site.

Edit by DAF

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Excerpted from New York Times, “U.S. Hires Boston Consulting to Advise Carmakers”, from Bloomberg News, April 11, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/11/business/11bizbriefs-USHIRESBOSTO_BRF.html?ref=business&pagewanted=print

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The folks who don’t pay income taxes think they pay their fair share … huh ?

April 24, 2009

52% of U.S. voters now believe they pay more than their fair share of taxes.  The split:  61% of Republicans, 48% of Democrats and 48% of independents.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/taxes/most_voters_say_they_pay_more_than_their_share_of_taxes_political_class_disagrees

Ken’s Translation: The half of the population that actually pays income taxes thinks that it pays too much; the half that pays no income taxes thinks that it pays about the right amount.  Surprise, surprise, surprise.

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51% of Americans have a favorable view of the “tea parties” held nationwide last week; 33%  view the events unfavorably; 15% hadn’t even heard about the tea parties (since they get their news exclusively from the NY Times)..  

The tea parties were viewed favorably by 83% of Republicans, 49% of unaffiliated Americans, and 28% of Democrats.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics2/51_view_tea_parties_favorably_political_class_strongly_disagrees

Ken’s Take: So, when and where will the folks who favor high taxes and out-of-control spending hold their rallies ?

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What are Your Friends Worth? … New Research Puts a Price Tag on Your Network

April 24, 2009

Excerpted from BusinessWeek, “Putting a Price on Social Connections”, by Stephen Baker, April 8, 2009

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Workers who have strong communication ties with their managers tend to bring in more money than those who steer clear of the boss, according to a new analysis of social networks in the workplace by IBM and Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

The research even assigns a dollar value to e-mail interaction with an employee’s managers. Among the group studied, several thousand consultants at IBM, those with strong links to a manager produced an average of $588 of revenue per month over the norm.

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The results represent an early attempt to understand the value of the broadening variety of personal connections afforded by the Web. Users of social media rack up LinkedIn contacts, Facebook friends, and Twitter followers by the hundreds, if not thousands. But figuring out how big a difference all those contacts make in a person’s life, financial or otherwise, is a far murkier matter.

That’s why leading tech companies are hiring economists, anthropologists, and other social scientists to map and classify new types of friendships—and put a value on them.

For example, researchers found that the average e-mail contact was worth $948 in revenue. Using mathematical formulas to analyze the e-mail traffic, address books, and buddy lists of 2,600 IBM consultants over the course of a year, they compared the communication patterns with performance, as measured by billable hours.

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In another study, an IBM team analyzes company methods to introduce employees to colleagues they haven’t yet met. The idea is to create new connections within the global workforce and to encourage employees to share knowledge.

One key is to alert people to potential friends and allies at the company. Much the way companies like Netflix and Amazon study past Web-surfing patterns to recommend books and movies, Geyer and his team are digging for signs of shared interests and behaviors among their colleagues.

* * * * *

Research into the networked behavior of employees promises insights about teamwork, innovation, and the transmission of knowledge and ideas within a given company.

The research is at an early stage. But as the economy struggles, more companies are sure to study the company we keep—and even attempt to calculate how much each friendship is worth.

Edit by DAF

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Full article:
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/apr2009/tc2009047_031301.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_dialogue+with+readers

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Marketers Step Up Promotions … What Does it Cost the Brand?

April 24, 2009

Excerpted from AdAge, “Deal or No Deal? Cheap Prices Can Maim Your Brand” By Jack Neff, April 06, 2009

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Google searches for the term “coupons” last month for the first time surpassed those for “Britney Spears.”

That simple fact drives home what a lot of package-goods marketers already know: What consumers want now is promotion.

But as the industry increasingly gives in to that wish … the question becomes how much marketers can discount without doing permanent damage to their brands …

For sure, the recession  is creating a huge consumer appetite for deals … Package-goods companies seem to be complying. After relative restraint on trade spending in 2008, marketers appear to have stepped on the gas in February. The percentage of volume sold on promotion was up 5.6 percentage points to 38.4%  …

Much as consumers and retailers may want deals, conventional wisdom is they pose a threat to brand health. Numerous studies have shown price promotion erodes brand equity by permanently making consumers more price-sensitive.

Mmarketers will resist cutting prices permanently as long as possible in favor of stepped-up promotion, because temporary deals erode margins less than permanent price cuts.

Promotion can play a positive role for brands in a recession … Promotion that wins a place on retailers’ circulars becomes more important when more consumers are planning purchases at home, as they are now … Realistically, that usually comes at the expense of a temporary price reduction.

Circulars are used about 45% of the time to create shopping lists … “If I’m a marketer, I want to make sure I’m in context of where the list is being made, because right now about 11% of the shopping list is by brand name, and when it is, there’s an 85% chance [the shopper] is going to buy it.”

Edit by SAC

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Full Article:
http://adage.com/article?article_id=135800

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Nobody is watching Fox News any more !

April 23, 2009

Just kidding, of course.  Below are Nielsen Ratings for the past month.  Interesting numbers (I think).

Primetime Average Viewers
FOXNEWS     3,390,000
MSNBC         1,210,000
CNN             1,070,000
CNN HDLN      909,000

image

Note:

(1) The WWE, Spnngebob, and repeats of NCIS and Law & Order beat all of the above

(2) Chris “Tingly Leg” Matthews and Lou “The World Isn’t Flat” Dobbs don’t even make the list

For demo detail:
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/04/17/cable-news-ratings-for-thursday-april-16/16968

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Old Airlines Struggle To Close the Cost Gap

April 23, 2009

Excerpted from WSJ, “Costs of Old Age Trip Up Airlines” By Scott McCartney, Apr 7, 2009

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Bankruptcies, restructurings, pay cuts and radical changes in airplane fleets and schedules were supposed to lower costs at older airlines so they could afford to match the cheap fares offered by upstart low-cost carriers. It hasn’t turned out that way. The “cost gap” between so-called legacy airlines that have been around for decades and younger low-fare carriers has remained …

[L]ow-cost carriers have been able to reduce their costs even more as their rivals tried to catch up. They maintained an advantage over bigger airlines in productivity, allowing them to fly seats at lower cost than rivals … For consumers, the aggressive cost-cutting at airlines has produced a prolonged period of very low fares. By slashing costs and improving efficiency, airlines have positioned themselves to better weather the recession … Layering on fees for everything from checking bags to redeeming frequent-flier tickets has helped, too.

That could change because of the persistent cost gap … For the past several years, strong business travel and demand for premium tickets on international routes gave higher-cost airlines enough revenue to overcome the cost gap. But the recession has drained high-dollar business travel, leaving higher-cost airlines to compete more directly with discounters for cheap-fare passengers …

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Airlines measure unit costs and revenue by spreading it over seat miles — each seat flown one mile … last year, when fuel prices were still high, revenue generated by American, Delta, Continental, Northwest, United and US Airways averaged 12.46 cents per seat mile … while costs were 14.68 cents per seat mile on average. On each seat mile, those airlines were losing money.

The average for AirTran Holdings Inc., JetBlue Airways Corp. and Southwest Airlines Co. showed how the low-cost airlines fared better. Average revenue per seat mile was 10.92 cents, just above average costs of 10.87 cents per seat mile.

Average costs of the legacy airlines last year were 35% higher than average unit costs of the low-cost carriers Some of the cost gap is unavoidable. Big international operations bring with them higher costs (but also higher revenue). Big hub operations are labor- and equipment-intensive and not nearly as efficient … Low-cost airlines typically avoid connecting scads of customers through big hubs and often empty and refill airplanes on the ground much faster.

The payoff for higher-cost airlines is supposed to be higher revenue. Lots of international flights attract high-dollar corporate fliers, for example, and extensive networks create more opportunity to connect more passengers. That has worked well for airlines when the economy is strong and business travelers are paying top-dollar for tickets.

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David Barger, chief executive of JetBlue Airways, says high oil prices last year overwhelmed airlines and made all carriers high-cost carriers … The key to keep costs low, he says, is growth — another area where the low-cost carriers have an edge. Airlines that grow add new airplanes that don’t yet have lots of maintenance costs or reliability issues … Conversely, airlines that are shrinking have a harder time reducing unit costs …

Low-cost carriers have been steadily capturing a bigger percentage of domestic air travel, carrying 26% of domestic passengers in 2003 and 31% by 2007 … Legacy airlines dropped from 56% of passengers in 2003 to 48% in 2007.

Edit by SAC

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Full Article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123905461687894541.html

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Diageo Pushes Pricey Pods For Chilled Beer Displays

April 23, 2009

Excerpted from WSJ, “Diageo Serves Up New Campaign Aimed at Shoppers” By Aaron O. Patrick, Apr 7, 2009

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With people going out less often amid the recession and drinking more at home, Diageo is adding a twist to its marketing.

The company, whose brands include Johnnie Walker scotch and Guinness beer, is developing in-store displays to encourage shoppers to buy more of its products in supermarkets and liquor stores. Central to its approach is a plan to roll out big refrigeration units so stores can sell their beer chilled.

The idea is to create a partially enclosed, refrigerated beer zone within a supermarket aisle, using a design Diageo calls “the pod.” The refrigeration units, which will cost retailers roughly €10,000 ($13,000) each, are intended to hold all kinds of beer, not just Diageo’s brands, in an attempt to boost beer sales overall.

No retailer has yet bought the pod … But Diageo says it is working with Spar, a European food chain, to install a smaller version this spring.

The effort is part of a strategy by Chief Executive Paul Walsh to make Diageo, the world’s biggest alcoholic-beverage company by revenue, better at working with supermarket chains, an increasingly important outlets for alcohol sales …

Diageo is installing computer screens in liquor stores to help people plan parties. Customers type in the cocktails they want to serve and the number of guests they are expecting, and the computer prints out a list of ingredients and quantities, including ice. The machines, which the company says are in 500 liquor stores in 38 U.S. states, can also send cocktail recipes via email …

Analysts say Diageo’s retail push seems to be working. Sales of its Smirnoff vodka grew 2.2% in the U.S. in January, twice the rate of the spirits market as a whole … while sales of most big spirits brands fell … In Europe, Diageo’s Irish unit has emerged as a leader in the supermarket strategy. In the past few years it has given away 600 display stands that hold spirits, mixers and condiments …

Spirits account for most of London-based Diageo’s profit, but beer is especially important to it in Ireland, where it brews Guinness as well as such brands as Budweiser and Carlsberg. Diageo Ireland learned that 78% of those who buy beer in Ireland drink it within three hours, says Henry Dummer, the company’s head of customer marketing in Ireland. Many Irish supermarkets don’t sell chilled beer, missing out on sales, he says.

Now, Spar has agreed to install Diageo-designed beer refrigerators in all 50 of its Irish Eurospar stores over the next two years, says Declan Ralph, Spar Ireland’s retail-development director … Diageo is in talks with other retailers about the pod.

Edit by SAC

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Full Article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123906172693095137.html

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Piling on … more quips on Obama's $100 million cost-cutting directive.

April 22, 2009

Extracted from IBD, “Fiscal Nanosurgery”, April 21, 2009

When President Obama directed his Cabinet to cut $100 million out of the budget … he talked about earning the public’s trust on spending. Apparently, he thinks people put a low value on trust.

Perhaps the president is counting on taxpayers not being able to tell the difference between millions, billions and trillions. They all seem like such big numbers.

So to get a real sense of just how little is being asked of his Cabinet, consider:

• If Obama were your dietician, you’d only have to give up an apple a year to abide by his diet plan.

• If he wanted you to cut your gasoline consumption, you’d have to drive just one-third of a mile less in a year.

• And if he wanted you to waste less water, you’d only have to reduce the time you spend in the shower on one day of the year by 30 seconds.

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=325206654263630

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Piling on … more quips on Obama’s $100 million cost-cutting directive.

April 22, 2009

Extracted from IBD, “Fiscal Nanosurgery”, April 21, 2009

When President Obama directed his Cabinet to cut $100 million out of the budget … he talked about earning the public’s trust on spending. Apparently, he thinks people put a low value on trust.

Perhaps the president is counting on taxpayers not being able to tell the difference between millions, billions and trillions. They all seem like such big numbers.

So to get a real sense of just how little is being asked of his Cabinet, consider:

• If Obama were your dietician, you’d only have to give up an apple a year to abide by his diet plan.

• If he wanted you to cut your gasoline consumption, you’d have to drive just one-third of a mile less in a year.

• And if he wanted you to waste less water, you’d only have to reduce the time you spend in the shower on one day of the year by 30 seconds.

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=325206654263630

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A car company that knows how to create value …. hint: not based in Detroit

April 22, 2009

Ken’s Take: In marketing, there’s a concept know as “product augmentation” —  adding features and services to a “core product” in order to deliver more differentiating benefits to target customers.  Hyundai seems to have hit the target with its assurance program.

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Excerpted from Brandchannel, “Marketing Strategies that Build Value” by Barry Silverstein, April 6, 2009

Value building is not a new concept. In good times and bad, smart brand marketers have always recognized the need to build value and differentiate—to make their brands a little better than competitors by adding a new feature, creating a special promotion or forging a unique alliance with another brand.

What’s different today is the targeted relevance of value building. Faced with a protracted global economic recession, established brands are searching for ways to add maximum value without cheapening their image or undermining profits. Some brands are out-smarting and out-performing their competitors because of value-building strategies.

One breakthrough example of value building is occurring in, of all places, the automotive industry. While most car manufacturers and dealers are slashing prices and offering deep discounts, one car maker is leveraging the impact of the economy on consumers by offering something simple yet powerful and timely: peace of mind.

In early 2009, the Korean auto company Hyundai introduced a program called Hyundai Assurance in the US market. It made a bold promise: “Finance or lease any new Hyundai, and if in the next year you lose your income, we’ll let you return it.” Hyundai recently enhanced the offer, renamed Hyundai Assurance Plus: “If you lose your income, we’ll make your payments for 3 months while you get back on your feet, and if that’s not enough time to work things out, you can return the car with no impact on your credit.”

Hyundai built additional value into Hyundai Assurance by broadly defining the ways in which loss of income might occur. Hyundai included the following “life-changing events” in its promise: involuntary unemployment, physical disability, loss of driver’s license due to medical impairment, international employment transfer, self-employed personal bankruptcy and accidental death. Obviously the company thought carefully about the current economic environment and consumers’ potential misfortunes.

Ironically, when Hyundai cars first entered the marketplace, they were not well regarded; in fact, Hyundai was perceived as a lower-quality brand in its early days. But following in the footsteps of the Japanese automakers, Hyundai kept making its cars better and better. Ten years ago, Hyundai stunned the industry by introducing the best automobile warranty in the US—a “safety net” that gave customers the confidence they needed to purchase a vehicle from Hyundai. Hyundai Assurance is essentially a thoughtful extension of that original value-building strategy.

In January 2009, after the introduction of Hyundai Assurance, Hyundai’s sales were up more than 14 percent over January 2008. “Hyundai had the largest sales increase of any automaker, and it was one of only three with any increase at all,” reported CNNMoney.com. 

In March 2009, Hyundai started offering low-rate loans on three car brands, in addition to cash-back incentives. Dave Zuchowski, vice president of sales for Hyundai Motor America, told Automotive News, “We’re looking for [Hyundai] Assurance to drive traffic and then the new rebates to help close the deals” (“Hyundai Piles On Incentives,” March 9, 2009).

Another way brands can practice value building is to promote exclusivity and offer consumers something of unique value for a limited time. The recent introduction of the 70th Anniversary Platinum Edition of the Disney movie Pinocchio typifies the category.

The Pinocchio release is just the latest in a series of Disney Platinum Editions—part of a larger value-building strategy by Disney to release original movies from the “Disney vault” for limited time periods, thus increasing their perceived value. 

Disney is already one of the world’s most recognized brands, so why do they need to issue Platinum Editions? Because Platinum Editions reinforce the image of the brand. Once the limited-release time period is over, the Platinum Edition movies are no longer available through traditional retail channels—they become “out of print” collector’s editions—and the Disney brand maintains its aura of exclusivity.

A third path to value building is more conventional but just as effective: using add-ons that enhance the value of a brand and reinforce the brand purchase decision. Apple’s iPhone stands out in this area. While it was a legitimate breakthrough brand in its own right, the iPhone was high priced and, by some standards, a risky and unproven technology. Apple rapidly overcame those early objections by opening up the iPhone to developers. The result was an iPhone “App Store” with thousands of applications for the iPhone, some of them free. In March 2008, more than 100,000 developers had downloaded the iPhone Software Development Kit in a period of just four days. By the end of 2008, Apple had recorded over 100 million application downloads.

Still, Apple succeeded in demonstrating that it was once again a pioneering technology brand, and that the iPhone was an added-value platform—one that could provide a mind-numbing quantity of applications unlike any other communications device on the market. 

These brand marketers know that value building is an important means of keeping their brands fit—and creating strong bonds with customers who are seeking the best value…especially in these economic times.

Edit by NRV
Full article:
http://www.brandchannel.com/start1.asp?fa_id=472

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Coke Makes An Innocent Investment

April 22, 2009

Excerpted from WSJ, “Coke Teams Up with Socially Focused Smoothie” By Aaron Patrick and Valerie Bauerlein, Apr 8, 2009

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Coca-Cola’s investment in British smoothie maker Innocent not only connects the beverage giant to a fast-growing product but also to a company known for good social and environmental behavior.

Coke said this week it will take a minority stake in London-based Innocent, which has quickly become one of Britain’s top brands by marketing its healthy ingredients and social commitment. By giving 10% of its profits to charity and using recycled bottles, Innocent was one of the first consumer brands launched in Britain to develop a big following through ethical marketing.

The investment … speaks to Coke’s continued interest in expanding beyond soft drinks and in owning small stakes in innovative companies … Founded 10 years ago, [Innocent] now has 82% of the U.K. smoothie market …

Innocent cuts a quirky public figure. Some of its trucks are covered in fake grass and daisies. Those trucks are mounted on hydraulics that make them appear to dance, with drop-down windows for giving away samples … The deal’s structure should allow Innocent to keep its funky attitude rather than risk being assimilated into a vast corporate culture whose focus remains carbonated soft drinks. Coca-Cola won’t have any management control over Innocent, but Innocent will share its expertise with the Atlanta-based beverage company …

The Coca-Cola money will be used to expand Innocent’s operations in Europe, where only 25% of European supermarkets sell smoothies … The money will be used to pay for distribution, stocking fees, sales staff and advertising …

While Innocent has run TV- and newspaper-ad campaigns, it has also specialized in less-traditional advertising. One of its ad agencies, Albion, created a board game for schools promoting the health benefits of fruit and vegetables. Some 200,000 people turned up to a Innocent musical concert in London named Fruitstock in 2006 …

Innocent’s charitable giving is also interactive. Volunteers knitted more than 506,000 little hats for smoothie bottles last year, which were then sold, raising £250,000 in proceeds to provide meals, blankets and other help for older people during the winter.

To be sure, Coke has been sporting its good deeds, expanding its recycling plants, reducing water consumption and using environmentally friendly coolants in vending machines and coolers But the 123-year-old company has been known to kill ads that were deemed too edgy and is vastly bigger and more buttoned-up than a closely held newcomer such as Innocent.

Coke appears to be embracing the model of taking a stake rather than buying outright, after previously struggling to integrate niche nonsoda companies … Coke has had more success with its 2001 purchase of Odwalla Inc., a maker of premium refrigerated fruit and vegetable juices whose product line is closest to Innocent’s line.

Innocent’s success helped drive all smoothie sales in the U.K. From 2003 to 2007, smoothie sales in the U.K. rose more than fivefold to £241 million …

Edit by SAC

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Full Article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123913675734598167.html

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"Puny","Trivial", "Insulting" … Remember when $100 million was a lot of money?

April 21, 2009

President Obama announced plans to cut $100 million from the federal budget, and department heads will have to make the cuts within 90 days. For example, Homeland Security is going to start buying office supplies in bulk instead one at a time.  That’s some out of the box thinking for you …

While the initiative was treated by most media as a big deal.  A few observers — left & right — have tried to put the $100 million in perspective. Here are a couple of my favorites:

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From Tom Bemis at Marketwatch:

“To get a handle on how insultingly trivial the announcement is, one need only compare the targeted cuts to the administration’s spending plan for 2010.
With cuts in federal spending by $100 million, the government will save roughly 1/36,000 of the $3.6 trillion it expects to spend next year.

Put another way, if the budget were a yardstick, the administration would be proposing to shorten it by about half the width of a human hair.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Obama-makes-puny-effort-budget/story.aspx?guid={AF7E28F0-CEBA-426D-AC0A-448537C5A627}&dist=hplatest

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From Paul Krugman of the NY Times:

” Let’s say the administration finds $100 million in efficiencies every working day for the rest of the Obama administration’s first term. That’s still around $80 billion, or around 2% of one year’s federal spending.

OK, politics is theater. But you could argue that the president shouldn’t feed the bogus claim that we can close fiscal gaps by eliminating a bit of waste.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/

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From economics guru Greg Minkow’s blog:

Just to be clear: $100 million represents .003 percent of $3.5 trillion.

To put those numbers in perspective, imagine that the head of a household …  called everyone in the family together to deal with a $34,000 budget shortfall. How much would he or she announce that spending had be cut?

By $3 over the course of the year–approximately the cost of one latte at Starbucks.

The other $33,997?  We can put that on the family credit card and worry about it next year.
http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/

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Thanks to Tags for the heads-up

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Retrofitting Gas Guzzlers with Batteries … hmmm, interesting idea, Mr. Grove

April 21, 2009

Ken’s Take: The conventional plan has been to make small hybrids — that few outside metroplexes are interested in, and which stand no chance of generating profits for auto companies.  I like that this plan tries to transforn SUVs and pick-ups into socially responsible rides..

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Excerpted from the McKinsey Quarterly, “An Electric Plan for Energy Resilience”, by Andy Grove and Robert Burgelman, December 2008

Every president since Richard Nixon has vowed to reduce the United States’ dependence on foreign oil. None has succeeded. Imports—and thus America’s vulnerability to disruptions—have increased to where now they supply two-thirds of consumption.

Our aim should not be total independence from foreign sources of petroleum. That is neither practical nor necessary in a world of interdependent economies. Instead, the objective should be developing a sufficient degree of resilience against disruptions in imports. Think of resilience as the ability to absorb a significant disruption, bigger than what could be managed by drawing down the strategic oil reserve.

The best alternative to oil? Electricity. The means? Convert petroleum-driven miles to electric ones.

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What would it take to build enough plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) to make a significant dent in oil consumption?

Revamping the fleet of automobiles already on the road through production of new automobiles would take far too long for comfort. If ten automobile manufacturers each introduced a new PEV now and increased its production as fast as Toyota did with its highly successful Prius, the vehicles would still account for less than 5 percent of the 250 million vehicles on US roads a decade from now.

We believe the United States should consider accelerating this movement by creating an industry of after-market retrofitters.

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We estimate the price tag of such a pilot project to be around $10 billion, owing to the present high cost of batteries, which are around $10,000 each.

Assuming an average gas price of $3 per gallon, the payback period to the owner of a retrofitted vehicle is at least ten years, not a strong economic incentive.

But the benefits of this program—testing and validating a key approach to energy resilience—accrue to the well-being of the United States at large. As the general population is the predominant beneficiary, economic assistance flowing from everyone to vehicle owners, in the form of tax incentives, is justified.

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There are different approaches to retrofitting vehicles. We favor GM’s Volt design, in which the car is directly driven by an electric motor. To simplify the retrofitting task, we would limit the scope of the program to six to ten U.S. models, selected on the basis of two criteria: low fuel efficiency and large numbers of vehicles on the road. Most of these vehicles would be SUVs, pick-ups, and vans.

Further, we propose targeting fleets of automobiles owned by corporations or government entities. That way, many retrofits could be performed at just a few locations.

Given the current difficult economic conditions, auto dealers and garage operators may well be attracted by this potential new source of revenue and be eager to participate, helping the program in its early stages.

* * * * *

The biggest problem, however, is the availability of batteries. The most suitable battery technology, which offers both a sufficient range and enough power to provide the acceleration required by today’s drivers, is the lithium-ion battery system. Making the batteries required for one million vehicles would mean doubling current manufacturing output.

There is another issue we need to consider. While there are many sources of the batteries’ raw materials—such as lithium and cobalt—battery manufacturing is almost exclusively based in China, Japan, and Korea. To avoid battery manufacturing becoming the next source of dependency, we have to build domestic technical and manufacturing capability.

Another important goal is to improve the cost and quality of battery technology.

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We are approaching the inevitable decline of oil availability which gives the United States the opportunity to move into a more desirable strategic position. Today, we compete with countries whose richer natural resources give them a strategic advantage. If we shift transportation towards electric miles, we gain an opportunity to employ our own resources: newly energized governmental leadership, a tradition of high-volume manufacturing, and a culture of technological innovation.

These capabilities and skills have served the United States well in the past, and the drive toward electric miles may help revitalize them. That result is every bit as important as the electric miles themselves.

Edit by DAF

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Full article:
http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Energy_Resources_Materials/Environment/An_electric_plan_for_energy_resilience_2276

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Tropicana’s Tale of Rebranding Gone Wrong

April 21, 2009

Excerpted from Ad Age, “Tropicana Line’s Sales Plunge 20% Post-Rebranding” By Natalie Zmuda, April 02, 2009

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Tropicana’s rebranding debacle did more than create a customer-relations fiasco. It hit the brand in the wallet.

After its package redesign, sales of the Tropicana Pure Premium line plummeted 20% between Jan. 1 and Feb. 22, costing the brand tens of millions of dollars. On Feb. 23, the company announced it would bow to consumer demand and scrap the new packaging … It had been on the market less than two months …

Moreover, several of Tropicana’s competitors appear to have benefited from the misstep, notably Minute Maid, Florida’s Natural and Tree Ripe. Varieties within each of those brands posted double-digit unit sales increases during the period …  As the leader in the category, it makes little sense that Tropicana Pure Premium would see such a drastic sales decline while the category remained relatively flat, industry experts said …

A spokeswoman for Tropicana in an e-mail said, “No dots to connect here.” The company did not respond to further requests for comment.

“It surprises me that their performance is so different from the rest of the category,” said Gary Hemphill … at Beverage Marketing Corp. “It’s a little tough to draw conclusions over such a short period of time. But I would say that’s unusual.”

Mr. Hemphill said typically when a beverage brand undergoes a rebranding it signals increased marketing expenditures and leads to improved performance, at least in the short term. “It gets people to look at the brand again and brings some kind of news and excitement around the brand,” he added.

Tropicana had certainly sought to create excitement around the Pure Premium rebrand, announcing Jan. 8 a “historic integrated-marketing and advertising campaign … designed to reinforce the brand and product attributes, rejuvenate the category and help consumers rediscover the health benefits they get from drinking America’s iconic orange-juice brand.”

Beverage experts were hard pressed to think of another major brand that had pulled the plug on such a sweeping redesign as swiftly as Tropicana. “It’s a black eye when you have to backtrack that quickly … There must be [another example] but nothing comes to mind. [Tropicana] is a big brand, and it was a big restage. This is something that I’m sure they were not happy about.”

While it’s impossible to say whether Tropicana has permanently lost share, as a result of the blunder, competitors are likely taking note. “We think the Minute Maid brand has opportunity for growth, and we’re working hard to make that happen,” said Ray Crockett, a Coca-Cola spokesman.

Edit by SAC

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Full Article:
http://adage.com/article?article_id=135735

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Glimmers of Nope ….

April 20, 2009

Consider the following:

(1) Last week, it was broadly reported that foreclosures have continued at a brisk and increasing rate since Team Obama’s mortgage rescue plan was announced.

According to USA Today: “Foreclosure filings in February jumped nearly 6% from January, despite foreclosure moratoriums and prevention programs … Foreclosure filings were up almost 30% from February 2008, … one in every 440 U.S. homes received a foreclosure filing in February.”
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2009-03-11-higher-housing-foreclosures_N.htm

(2) The WSJ reports that lending has been declining at banks that have received TARP funds

“Lending at the biggest U.S. banks has fallen sharply … despite government efforts to pump billions of dollars into the financial sector.

The biggest recipients of taxpayer aid made or refinanced 23% less in new loans in February …  than in October, the month the Treasury kicked off the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

The total dollar amount of new loans declined in three of the last  four months …  All but three of the 19 largest TARP recipients … originated fewer loans in February than they did at the time they received federal infusions.” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124019360346233883.html#mod=testMod

(3 Most banks have been reporting better than expected Q1 earnings making rosy projections, and moving to pay back TARP funds.

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Ken’s Take:

Sure, Wall Streeters and the banks blundered big time in the mortgage mess.  Still, they are a shrewd bunch.  Obama’s Team of career government bureaucrats and academics are no match for the big league finance sharks.  The Administration’s haphazard programs are easily exploited.  The banks can take the near-free money and generous processing cost subsidies and simply drop them down to their bottom lines without doing much differently that they otherwise would.  For the bank’s, it’s like taking candy from a baby …

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Fixed Fee Flexibility – Firms Change Pricing Strategies

April 20, 2009

Excerpted from WSJ, “Firms Try Alternative to Hourly Fees” By Simona Covel, Apr 2, 2009

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For decades, marketing firms, accountants and other professional-service companies have all billed nearly the same way — by the hour, or, on occasion, with long-term contracts. But the recession is chipping away at that tradition, with companies forced to adopt performance-based pay and fixed prices in an effort to retain and attract clients.

The billing changes affect a broad swath of businesses, including marketing, advertising, accounting and recruiting. Even a few law firms have recently begun to talk about moving away from the billable hour, a hallmark of the legal-fee structure.

In recent months, advertising and communications company Button Worldwide began offering its clients an alternative to its regular billing after a few clients requested that the company cut monthly retainers for continuing work … Instead of a retainer, Button clients could use a pay-for-performance model where the company earns money only if it secures publicity for a client …

As the economy wavered this past summer, clients of Geary Interactive Inc. began balking at the $100 to $135 hourly rates charged by the digital marketing agency. To please clients and attract new ones, the agency started reducing its fees on a case-by-case basis — with a twist. 

The reduced fees are now approximately $80 per hour, but Geary added a contractual bonus to be paid at the end of a certain time period if its marketing campaigns met or exceeded a client’s goalsThe move also has meant a shift for a staff often accustomed to thinking about longer-term goals such as brand development. “There’s a higher sense of urgency,” Mr. Roell says …  

Edit by SAC
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Full Article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123862458936679977.html

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Caution: 535 backseat drivers onboard … (all unlicensed)

April 17, 2009

Ken’s Take

Many banks were forced to take TARP funds even though they didn’t need or want them.  Why?  So that banks that did need the money wouldn’t be stigmatized and to get more money into the economy.

Now, “industry officials have been expressing growing concern about Washington changing TARP terms, as Congress did last month on rules for executive compensation … That creates uncertainty and disincentives for companies in TARP. You have 535 backseat drivers in Congress. ”

“Think about it: If Rick Wagoner can be fired and compact cars can be mandated, why can’t a bank with a vault full of TARP money be told where to lend? And since politics drives this administration, why can’t special loans and terms be offered to favored constituents, favored industries, or even favored regions? Our prosperity has never been based on the political allocation of credit — until now. ”

Unfortunately (for TARP holders), Team Obama is rejecting attempts to repay the loans … and dodge encumbering Congressional control.

I guess backseat driving is way too much fun … especially when it comes with no accountability.

Source article:
http://foxbusiness.proteus.com/content.html?contentId=29318

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In praise of tax code simplification …

April 17, 2009

Ken’s Take:

(1) Of course a simpler tax code makes sense, but it’ll never happen.  Why?  Because the complicated tax code is Congress’ source of power.  It allows them to pick winners & losers — among people, ideas and, oh yeah, contributors.

(2) I’d add a 7th principle: Everybody has to have some skin in the game.

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Excerpted from WSJ, “We Need a Simpler Tax Code”. April 10, 2009

As the national taxpayer advocate, I am required to report to Congress each year on the most serious problems facing U.S. taxpayers. With April 15 fast approaching, it will come as no surprise to many frustrated taxpayers that the complexity of the tax code tops my list.

The law should be plain enough that most people can compute their own liabilities on a single form.

In developing a comprehensive tax reform blueprint, I recommend that emphasis be given to six core principles.

First, the tax system should not be so complex as to create traps for the unwary.

Second, the tax laws should be simple enough so that most taxpayers can prepare their own returns and compute their tax liabilities on a single form, and simple enough so that IRS telephone assistors can accurately answer taxpayers’ questions.

Third, the tax laws should anticipate the largest areas of noncompliance and minimize the opportunities for such noncompliance.

Fourth, the tax laws should provide some choices, but not too many, since choices are confusing and can lead to taxpayer error.

Fifth, where the tax laws provide for refundable credits, they should be designed in a way that is minimally burdensome both for the taxpayers claiming the credits and for the IRS in administering them.

Sixth, the tax system should incorporate a periodic review of the tax code — a sanity check to guard against complexity creep.

Tax simplification would benefit all Americans, regardless of political party.

Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123933106888707793.html

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Hollywood’s Newest Concern? A Big Red Vending-Machine

April 17, 2009

Excerpted from LA Times, “Redbox’s $1 vending-machine video rentals worry movie studios” By Dawn C. Chmielewski, March 30, 2009

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The hottest thing in movie rentals is as old as the Coke machine — and just as red. Redbox movie kiosks are popping up by the thousands in supermarkets, drugstores, restaurants and convenience stores around the country. The kiosks stock DVDs that rent for $1 a day, a remainder-bin price that is less than a cup of coffee at Starbucks.

For all the talk about the Internet, Wi-Fi and cellphones becoming the new gateways to watch movies and wiping out the corner Blockbuster, a ubiquitous vending machine the size of a refrigerator is becoming a growing concern to Hollywood.

Consumers are pulling DVDs out of the Redbox kiosks in record numbers, undermining longtime economics that have propped up the movie business — and in the process triggered a backlash from a major studio that sought to cut off Redbox’s supply of hot new DVDs …

Redbox operates nearly 12,900 kiosks throughout the U.S. — four times as many locations as Blockbuster — and plans to introduce 7,100 more by the end of the year … Consumers rent a DVD from the machine using their credit or debit cards, which enables Redbox to charge an additional day’s rental if the DVD is not returned within a 24-hour period. A typical kiosk can earn significant coin: about $50,000 annually in revenue per machine in operation after three years.

Blockbuster … started rolling out its own DVD-vending kiosks last summer … “We have been watching very carefully as they have progressed … We think it is very consistent with what Blockbuster does, which is to provide convenient access” to home entertainment.

The discount DVD rental business worries Hollywood movie studios because of fears that it is undercutting DVD sales, which dropped 13% in the fourth quarter … DVD sales historically have been how the studios earn a profit on movies, because ticket sales are barely enough to offset production and marketing costs. Some studios believe that consumers will forgo buying DVDs if they have a cheap option to rent movies …

The kiosks caught on, especially in supermarkets, where they catch customers’ eyes as they push their grocery carts through the checkout counters.

The combination of errands to fill the cupboard and rent movies, as well as the consistent flow of customers, turned out to be advantageous … “It’s a regularity of traffic, and the biggest single place people are going after the supermarket is to their homes,” Redbox’s Kaplan said. “Consumers tend not to rent DVDs when they’re not going home” …

Video industry analyst Adams estimates that the kiosk rental market, which totaled $519 million last year, will reach $1.4 billion in five years — or about one-fourth of Blockbuster’s 2008 revenue.

“You could view that as directly competitive” with Blockbuster, Adams said. “It’s a cheaper option, and during a recession people embrace it.”

Edit by SAC

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Full Article:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cotown-redbox30-2009mar30,0,3496501.story?track=rss

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