Archive for October 2nd, 2008

Paying the piper …

October 2, 2008

Excerpted from WSJ: “Bailing Out Ourselves – Bankers weren’t the only ones who enjoyed the credit mania”, October 2, 2008

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“If banks, in spite of every precaution, are sometimes betrayed into giving a false credit to the persons described, they more frequently enable honest and industrious men of small and perhaps of no capital to undertake and prosecute business with advantage to themselves and to the community.”

So wrote Alexander Hamilton in 1790, amid an earlier populist backlash against American bankers. Hamilton didn’t hesitate to use the powers of the Treasury to calm markets amid a speculative panic for the good of the larger community. The U.S. is at another Hamiltonian moment, if Congress has the nerve to act in the national interest.

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We are told this is a “bailout for Wall Street.” But if Americans are honest with themselves, they will admit that bankers are far from the only cause of our current predicament.

The U.S. is living through the aftermath of a classic credit mania, one that all of us enjoyed while it lasted. We don’t remember many protests when home prices were rising by 15% a year, or when interest rates stayed at 1% for a year and real interest rates were negative for far longer.

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Our point isn’t to absolve Wall Street or Washington — far from it. The point is that credit manias are by their very nature societal, which is why the panics that follow can do so much damage to Americans outside the financial arena. They are part of a larger psychology that sweeps everyone up in euphoria for a time, only to send everyone into a defensive crouch when the credit stops.

The challenge at such a moment is to prevent a panic from becoming a crash that does far more extensive damage. This is where we are now, and this is why the House should pass the bill that passed the Senate last night, even with its flaws. The government needs the power to use public capital to defend and stabilize the financial system. In that sense, we are really bailing out ourselves.

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Credit markets are ceasing to function by any normal standard, with banks refusing even to lend to one another, much less to credit-worthy borrowers on Main Street.

Yesterday, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index reported its largest one-month drop in 24 years. While at 43.5 the index remains above the recession level of 41, the credit vise may soon guarantee one.

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Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac … those two government-sponsored enterprises did so much to turbocharge the credit mania. By providing subsidized rates of return to global investors, they helped fuel the bubble in housing and mortgage-backed securities that is now haunting so many financial institutions.

The Bush Administration was on the right side of this debate for eight years, as was the late Clinton Treasury. This was a scandal in plain sight that all but a few ignored.

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The Paulson plan isn’t what we would have drawn up. It will not by itself inject capital into troubled banks, and it carries risks in how Treasury will price toxic assets when it buys them. But it is one more policy tool at a time when something needs to be done, and it is the only one currently up for a vote. Passing it won’t by itself revive the banking system, but defeating it will guarantee far more damage to far more Americans.

In this sense, too, the votes this week in Congress are about bailing out our political class from its own embarrassing performance. Americans are anxious, even frightened, about the financial system. They are looking for leaders who will act to defend it.

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Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122292003161497455.html

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Ken’s POV:

The bailout simply closes a loop.  The government ‘encouraged’ lower mortgage loan qualifying criteria with the Dem’s Community Reinvestment initiatives and Bush’e Ownership push.  Now, the government will be stuck holding the bad paper that it thought it was feisting off on the banks.  It would be poetic justice if the government weren’t playing with our money.

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Sticking with Your Strategy

October 2, 2008

Excerpted from Harvard Business Online, “Why the Mortgage Meltdown Hasn’t Burned These ‘Square’ Lenders”, by Bill Taylor, September 11, 2008

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How do you keep your head when all those around you are losing theirs? This has become a defining challenge for leaders in an age of technology bubbles, private-equity overreach, and, most recently, the mania (and meltdown) in the mortgage market.

What can we learn from this heartache and misery? The most valuable insights come from those few leaders who refused to be seduced by the promises of fast growth and easy profits.

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One case in point is Hudson City Bancorp, a 140-year-old company based in Paramus, New Jersey that has managed to avoid the mortgage meltdown and continues to post tremendous results. Business journalists have discovered this quiet little outfit and marveled at its strategic insights. Its shares are up 50 percent since last August, when the credit crisis really kicked in. (A leading index of bank stocks is down 40 percent over the same period).

“Hudson City banks the old-fashioned way,” Newsweek marveled. “It takes deposits and makes mortgages to people who buy homes in which they plan to live. And then it hangs on to” the mortgages, rather than sell them in the secondary market.

Imagine the brilliance! Take deposits. Make sensible loans. Repeat over and over again, until your market cap approaches $10 billion.

The New York Times tried to unpack the secrets of Hudson’s success and offered this analysis: “The bank carefully screened loan applicants to ensure they would be able both to afford a new house and reside there, rather than flip it. And the bank demanded hefty down payments…as a cushion against any sharp drop in home prices, because it planned to hang on to the loans.”

What a formula! Make sure borrowers can afford their loans. Insist that they make a big down payment. Favor owners over speculators.

Hudson City’s mindful approach to banking only looks remarkable because so many established banks lost their minds. ING Direct, a cutting-edge banking innovator, also managed to avoid the march of folly in its industry. The bank avoided the subprime meltdown because it stuck to simple, plain-vanilla mortgages rather than exotic instruments that sounded too good to be true (and were). The bank has written 100,000 mortgages worth $26 billion and has a grand total of 15 foreclosures. Not 15 percent, just 15 mortgages out of 100,000.

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These successes speak to one of the unappreciated elements of strategy and creativity:

Sometimes, the most important form of leadership is resisting an innovation that takes hold in your field when that innovation, no matter how popular with your rivals, is at odds with your long-term point of view. The most determined innovators are as conservative as they are unique. They make big strategic bets for the long term and don’t hedge their bets when strategic fashions change.

Edit by DAF

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Full article:
http://discussionleader.hbsp.com/taylor/2008/09/why_the_mortgage_meltdown_hasn.html?cm_mmc=npv-_-WEEKLY_HOTLIST-_-SEPT_2008-_-HOTLIST0929

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Building Better Customer Loyalty

October 2, 2008

Excerpted from Wall Street Journal “Rewards that Reward” by Jean Halliday September 17, 2008

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Used by businesses for more than 25 years, loyalty programs aim to entice consumers to make repeat purchases by offering them rewards — things like discounts on future purchases or points toward free airline tickets.

Since companies continue to expand them, one would think loyalty programs are powerful tools for boosting market share. Our research indicates many aren’t, at least not as designed.

The biggest problem with loyalty programs, we would argue, is that most retailers adopt a one-size-fits-all approach: They use monetary rewards to encourage repeat purchases. But product discounts won’t change buying behavior in the long run in shoppers who value things like personalized service, convenience or shopping pleasure more. These types of consumers may change their behavior to access the price promotion, but they likely will revert back to their regular brands or buying habits shortly thereafter, resulting in, at best, a temporary change in sales and market share.

Loyalty programs also seem to be mainly of interest to existing customers — the heavier, more frequent, more loyal buyers of the store, who tend to live closer to it…

A more effective way to woo customers and maintain their patronage is to offer them individualized rewards, based on what they value. By offering different types of rewards to different groups of shoppers, companies set themselves apart and give people a reason to keep coming back…

Here is how to build a loyalty program with the best chance of paying off:

Group customers according to purchase motivations…

Increase intrinsic rewards; decrease extrinsic ones…

Determine if customers perceive a loyalty program’s rewards to be valuable…

Weigh other factors that may influence the effectiveness of reward types…

Edit by SAC

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Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122160028857244783.html

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Krispy Kreme doubles down … huh?

October 2, 2008

Excerpted from Chicago Tribune, “Krispy Kreme looking for hot sales in smaller stores, ice cream in latest turnaround plan”, by Lauren Shepard, September 21, 2008

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Krispy Kreme’s signature glazed doughnuts may be best hot, but its sales have been anything but in recent years. Now the chain is hoping that going cold — with its new soft-serve ice cream — will be the catalyst it needs.

The company has been trying to revive its sales for nearly three years, amid a health craze that made its glazed doughnuts an indulgence that many just couldn’t stomach.

Now industry watchers say Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc.’s latest turnaround plan — which includes launching the new ice cream as well as opening smaller stores and expanding overseas — still may not be enough to help the chain climb out of its hole.

“They’re trying to reposition themselves as more of a treat concept” that offers consumers desserts and indulgences, said Bob Goldin, executive vice president at food industry research firm Technomic. But “it’ll be hard to argue it’s a growth business” given trends toward eating healthier, he said.

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Krispy Kreme will begin opening smaller locations that are less expensive to build than its older “factory store” model that allowed consumers to watch the doughnuts being made.

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Another key part of the plan is the company’s new Kool Kreme soft serve, which will be featured with a toppings bar.

Whether the new offering will boost sales remains to be seen, but analysts have yet to be impressed — especially as Krispy Kreme’s competitors are trying to attract health-conscious customers with egg-white sandwiches and whole-grain pastries.

“There’s no question that Americans are changing their attitude about health as a way to add good things to your diet,” said Harry Balzer, vice president of consumer research firm NPD Group.

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Regardless of whether it speaks to consumers’ desires, ice cream may not be different enough from other products already on the market. McDonald’s Corp., for example, sells a soft serve treat for less than a dollar in some areas.

“I’m not saying it won’t work, but how are you going to compete against that?” Bob Goldin, executive vice president at food industry research firm Technomic, said. “I just don’t think that’s a product that’s going to carry that well.”

Still, he said, “they’ve got to do something.”

Edit by DAF

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Full article:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-krispy-creme-ice-cream-sep22,0,5045476.story

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