Archive for November, 2008

Sirius XM reports subscriber gains (and big losses)

November 12, 2008

Excerpted from AP, “Sirius XM Radio posts $4.88B loss”,  11.11.08

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Sirius XM Radio Inc. said its losses totaled $4.88 billion in the third quarter …  revenue gained 16 percent to $612.8 million, from $529.2 million last year.

“Sirius XM third quarter results demonstrate strong revenue growth, solid cost control and most importantly a clear path to positive cash flow,” said Chief Executive Mel Karmazin. He noted that self-pay monthly customer churn remained flat from last year at 1.7 percent.

“In the first 60 days following the merger, Sirius XM is operationally very close to breakeven,” he said.

Sirius ended the quarter with 18.9 million subscribers, a 17 percent gain over its 16.2 million subscribers at the end of last year’s third quarter … and projected that it will end 2008 with 19.1 million subscribers and end 2009 with 20.6 million subscribers.

Sirius XM said the difficult economic environment, particularly a dramatic slowdown in auto sales, have hurt subscriber growth for 2008 and 2009. The company generates many of its new customers through sales of cars that have its radios installed at the factory.

Full article:
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/11/11/ap5676861.html?partner=alerts

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The biggest real estate blunders ever …

November 12, 2008

Excerpted from Forbes.com, “Worst Business Blunders” Nov. 11, 2008

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Ken’s Take: As we all lick our wounds with home prices down, consider these …

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Blunder: The sale of Manhattan island
Blunderer: The Canarsees
Size Of Blunder: $1 trillion

In 1626, Canarsee natives traded for trinkets a now rather stylish plot: Manhattan (then called New Amsterdam). The 23 square miles many New Yorkers consider “the center of the universe” is now valued at a cool $1 trillion.

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Blunderer: Napoleon, On Behalf Of France
Blunder: The sale of the Louisiana Territory
Size Of Blunder: $750 billion

In 1803, Napoleon was struggling to defend all the land France had acquired in the New World, specifically Haiti, which was in the midst of a slave revolt. With his army stretched thin, and unwilling to relinquish Haiti, Napoleon offered to sell the entire territory of Louisiana, rather than just the port of New Orleans, as had previously been discussed. The offer: $15 million–3 cents per acre–or about $284 million today. The current value of that land (now including portions of 15 U.S. states and two Canadian provinces): around $750 billion.

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Blunder: Sale of Alaska
Blunderer: Czar Alexander II, On Behalf Of Russia
Size Of Blunder: $100 billion 

Fearing he would lose Alaska by force, Czar Alexander II advised Russian minister Eduard de Stoeckl to offer a 586,412 square mile ice block–Alaska–for sale to the U.S. Following an all-night negotiation, the agreement was signed March 30, 1867. The U.S. paid $7.2 million–1.9 cents per acre–for a land rich in oil and gold, currently valued at $100 billion, At the time of the sale, famed journalist Horace Greeley of the New York Tribune called the purchase both “inconvenient” and “dangerous” for the U.S., as the territory offered “nothing of value but furbearing animals.”

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Full article:
http://www.forbes.com/2008/03/10/ford-microsoft-xerox-ent-manage-cx_ml_0310blunder_slide.html?thisSpeed=20000

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Keeping score: a promise made is a promise kept … right?

November 11, 2008

Excerpted from IBD, “A Checklist Of Obama’s Many Promises”. November 10, 2008

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Few presidential candidates have made more specific promises to American voters than Barack Obama. They came fast and furious.    So as a public service, IBD put together a handy checklist of some of the biggest Obama promises — culled from his “Blueprint for Change,” his campaign speeches and advertisements. 

Ken’s favorites are bolded. 

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Taxes

• Give a tax break to 95% of Americans.

• Restore Clinton-era tax rates on top income earners.

• “If you make under $250,000, you will not see your taxes increase by a single dime. Not your income taxes, not your payroll taxes, not your capital gains taxes. Nothing.”

• Dramatically simplify tax filings so that millions of Americans will be able to do their taxes in less than five minutes.

• Give American businesses a $3,000 tax credit for every job they create in the U.S.

• Eliminate capital gains taxes for small business and startup companies.

• Eliminate income taxes for seniors making under $50,000.

• Expand the child and dependent care tax credit.

• Expand the earned income tax credit.

• Create a universal mortgage credit.

• Create a small business health tax credit.

Provide a $500 “make work pay” tax credit.

• Provide a $1,000 emergency energy rebate to families.

Energy

• Spend $15 billion a year on renewable sources of energy.

• Eliminate oil imports from the Middle East in 10 years.

• Increase fuel economy standards by 4% a year.

• Weatherize 1 million homes annually.

• Ensure that 10% of our electricity comes from renewable sources by 2012.

Environment

• Create 5 million green jobs.

• Implement a cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

• Get 1 million plug-in hybrids on the road by 2015.

Labor

• Sign a fair pay restoration act, which would overturn the Supreme Court’s pay discrimination ruling.

• Sign into law an employee free choice act — aka card check — [that eliminate secret ballots in union elections] 

• Make employers offer seven paid sick days per year.

• Increase the minimum wage to $9.50 an hour by 2009.

National security

• Remove troops from Iraq by the summer of 2010.

• Cut spending on unproven missile defense systems.

• No more homeless veterans.

• Stop spending $10 billion a month in Iraq.

• Finish the fight against  the al-Qaida terrorists; [and capture Osama bin Laden ]

Social Security

• Work in a “bipartisan way to preserve Social Security for future generations.”

• Impose a Social Security payroll tax on incomes above $250,000.

• Match 50% of retirement savings up to $1,000 for families earning less than $75,000.

Education

• Demand higher standards and more accountability from our teachers.

Spending

• Go through the budget, line by line, ending programs we don’t need and making the ones we do need work better and cost less.

• Slash earmarks.

Health care

• Lower health care costs for the typical family by $2,500 a year.

• Let the uninsured get the same kind of health insurance that members of Congress get.

• Stop insurance companies from discriminating against those who are sick and need care the most.

• Spend $10 billion over five years on health care information technology.

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Full article:
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=311212244872396 

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Chopping the Long Tail down to size …

November 11, 2008

Excerpted from The Register, “Chopping the Long Tail down to size”, Andrew Orlowski, Nov. 7, 2008

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The most comprehensive empirical study of digital music sales ever conducted has some bad news for Californian technology utopians. Since 2004, WiReD magazine editor Chris Anderson has been hawking his “Long Tail” proposition around the world: blockbusters will matter less, and businesses will “sell less of more”.

Examining tens of millions of transactions from a large digital music provider, economist Will Page with Mblox founder Andrew Bud  … discovered that instead of following a Pareto or “power law” curve, as Anderson suggested, digital song sales follow a classic Log Normal distribution. 80 per cent of the digital inventory sold no copies at all – and the ‘head’ was far more concentrated than the economists expected.

In another surprise, 80 per cent of the revenue came from 52,000 songs. What’s eye-catching about the number? Well, the typical inventory of a conventional high street record store was around 4,000 CDs. Or … around 52,000 songs.

This really isn’t the upbeat fairy tale message Anderson has spent four years selling on the conference circuit.  The Long Tail helped bolster netsters’ morale – although its success owed much to sloppy thinking – and in particular, metaphorical logic.

Following the WiReD Way of Business as a matter of faith could be catastrophic for your business and investment decisions.

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Full article:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/11/07/long_tail_debunked/

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A flagrant act of nutritional disobedience …

November 11, 2008

Excerpted from NY Times, “Bake Sales Fall Victim to Push for Healthier Foods”, November 10, 2008

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Members of the Piedmont High School boys water polo team never expected to find themselves running through school in their Speedos to promote a bake sale across the street. But times have been tough since the school banned homemade brownies and cupcakes.

The old-fashioned school bake sale, once as American as apple pie, is fast becoming obsolete in California, a result of strict new state nutrition standards for public schools that regulate the types of food that can be sold to students. The guidelines  … require that snacks sold during the school day contain no more than 35 percent sugar by weight and derive no more than 35 percent of their calories from fat and no more than 10 percent of their calories from saturated fat.

The Piedmont High water polo team falls woefully short of these standards, selling cupcakes, caramel apples and lemon bars off campus in a flagrant act of nutritional disobedience.

The ban on bake sales has not been met with universal enthusiasm. The Piedmont Highlander, the school newspaper, editorialized about “birthday cakes turned into contraband” and homemade goodies snatched from students “by the long arm and hungry mouth of the law. You shouldn’t stop a kid from buying a cookie.”

The idea is that policy interventions to reduce consumption “will do for junk food what smoking bans and taxes did for tobacco.”

Full article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/us/10bake.html

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Ken’s Take: Yeah, worked pretty well on smokes … 

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Some tax changes … for sure !

November 10, 2008

Excerpted from WSJ, “Taxes for 2009 Already Set to Rise and Fall “, Nov. 9, 2008

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While nobody knows what will happen to taxes next year, most taxpayers can count on getting at least a small dose of relief because of inflation adjustments. Because of annual inflation adjustments, many tax provisions, such as the basic standard deduction and personal-exemption amounts, increase each year.

For example, the basic standard deduction will rise to $11,400 for married couples filing jointly, up $500 from 2008. For most singles and married people filing separately, it will be $5,700, up $250.

Tax-bracket income thresholds will rise for each filing status. For joint filers, for example, the taxable-income threshold separating the 15% bracket from the 25% bracket will be $67,900, up from $65,100 in 2008.

The annual gift-tax exclusion will increase in 2009 to $13,000 from $12,000 this year. That means you will be able to give away as much as $13,000 next year to anyone you wish — and to each of as many people as you want — without having to worry about taxes. Moreover, you can pay for someone’s tuition or medical bills, and the payments won’t count toward the annual exclusion. Just be sure to make those payments directly to the educational or medical institution.

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But millions of high-income workers will get hit by higher Social Security taxes.

The maximum amount of earnings subject to the Social Security tax in 2009 will rise to $106,800 from $102,000 in 2008. Of the estimated 164 million workers who will pay Social Security taxes next year, about 11 million will pay higher taxes because of this increase.

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Ken’s Take: The federal income tax code can be– and has been — modified RETROACTIVELY to the date that legislation is introduced (but not, as I understand it to a “closed” tax year).  Expect Obama’s tax changes to be introduced in the House (which has responsibility for initiating tax bills) soon after Obama’s inauguration — if for no other reason than to to set the retroactivity date.

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Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122619877179711425.html

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Men at Work …. where ?

November 10, 2008

Let  me set the scene: you’re driving around the DC beltway or on practically any interstate highway in the U.S.  Traffic is slowing to a crawl and you see this sign.

image

Then, you drive for a couple of miles flanked by orange cones. 

How often have you actually seen ‘men working’ before you pass the sign that says “End of Work Zone.  Resume Normal Speed”.

Every time you hear the words: “Infrastructure Rebuilding Program”, just close your eyes and replay the above scene in your imagination.  It’s your money (or your kid’s money) at work …  or, not at work.

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HD Radio Struggles To Find Its Groove

November 10, 2008

Excerpted from the Wall Street Journal “Weak Signals: Can HD Radio Find Listeners” by Sarah McBride, November 4, 2008

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The radio industry’s answer to the Internet, iPods and satellite radio has been slow to make waves with consumers.Called HD Radio, the technology allows radio stations to transmit a digital signal  … extra stations … and a wider range of programming in a static-free medium. And listeners don’t have to pay subscription fees charged for satellite radio.

But four years after the first HD radios hit the marketplace, the new service hasn’t gained traction with consumers.

The signal can be heard only through special digital radio receivers, with prices that start at about $80. The digital signal typically doesn’t reach as far as the same station’s analog signal, so in many cities, the signal comes and goes as listeners drive around town…

About 600,000 HD radios are expected to sell this year. Many say that rate is too slow, considering that satellite radio now has 19 million subscribers and that Apple will sell about 33 million iPods in the U.S. this year…

Despite millions of dollars spent developing and marketing HD radio, consumers’ awareness and enthusiasm for the new technology is hard to gauge. An industry-backed survey…says three out of four radio listeners know about the technology. But an independent study…says only about one in four had heard or read “anything recently about HD Radio.”

On the retail side, some consumers report walking into big electronics stores, asking for HD radio receivers and being led instead to the section for satellite radio...For the technology to really catch on with offline listeners, radio veterans say … the HD radios must be  widely available in cars…Next year, for example, HD Radio will be standard in new Volvos.  

Edit by SAC

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Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122575904804195337.html

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No Surprise, Best Marketers Wal-Mart, P&G

November 7, 2008

Excerpted from Promo Magazine “Wal-Mart, P&G Still Tops for Marketing Strength: Survey” November 3, 2008

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Wal-Mart and Procter & Gamble still hold the top spots in the 2008 Cannondale Associates’ annual PoweRanking survey of both manufacturers and retailers. But their ratings…were lower than last year.

Respondents were asked to rate companies for their retail marketing competence on criteria, including clear company strategy, most innovative consumer marketing, and best store branding.

For the tenth year, Wal-Mart stood head and shoulders above the others… Among other Top Ten retailers only Kroger showed appreciable gains, boosting its rank by almost 5% to move into third place, behind Wal-Mart and Target… Walgreens hiked its composite ranking by 2.8% this year and filled out the Top Ten, right behind rival health and beauty vendor CVS…“This suggests that Wal-Mart’s low price strategy is resonating with consumers and manufacturers…It also suggests that Kroger’s strong showing in targeting its shoppers and shopper segments is paying dividends. Also, drug retailers CVS and Walgreens are effectively targeting consumers and delivering on programs.”

On the manufacturer side, four of the Top Ten moved up in standing this year, while…ConAgra, dropped out of the first rank altogether.Traditional  leaders P&G, Kraft and PepsiCo all saw their scores fall off this year. P&G’s popular vote dropped 4.2 points, although it still held the Number One slot. Kraft’s score drop of 0.3 points wasn’t enough to move it from the second slot…General Mills saw its score increase to grab the fourth spot. Meanwhile Nestle built its ranking up…and Clorox re-joined first-tier manufacturers after a two-year absence with a score increase of 1.7 percentage points.“General Mills has been given great credit for a re-focus on customer initiatives and wholly embracing the concept of working collaboratively with retailers to better develop business,’ …Nestle is being given credit for focusing on a health and wellness message that starts at the top.”“Retailers that excelled…have completed their own customer segmentation and begun to develop alternative store formats and merchandising platforms to address newly identified needs”…

Edit by SAC

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Full article:
http://promomagazine.com/retail/news/1103-walmart-pg-tops-marketing/

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Of age and race, which mattered most ?

November 7, 2008

Excerpted from
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/04/exit.polls/

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While Obama will be the nation’s first black president, John McCain would have been the oldest person ever elected to the nation’s highest office.

Race played less of a role in the election than age

The only age group where McCain prevailed was 65 and over, and that by just a 10-percentage-point margin, 54 percent to 44 percent, the exit polls showed.

Minorities went heavily into the Obama camp. Blacks, 96 percent Obama to 3 percent McCain; Latinos, 67 percent Obama to 30 percent McCain;

Obama did well with Latinos because they appear to disapprove of President Bush’s job performance more than the rest of the country,

About 80 percent of Latinos give Bush negative marks, while 72 percent of all Americans do, exit polling showed.

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Ken’s Take:

(1) Interesting that 93% of blacks voted for Obama because he was — on his record and positions — the better candidate.  But, 54% of old people voted for McCain just because he was old.  Huh ?

(2) McCain put his political career on the line pushing for comprehensive immigration reform (i.e. amnesty).  Which, incidentally, Bush supported.  Obama stayed out of the fray.  Yet, Hispanics rejected McCain 2 to 1.  Gotta feel a bit sorry for the guy.

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Things are tough all over … Wall Street bonuses fall

November 7, 2008

Excerpted from WSJ, “On Street, the Incredible Shrinking Bonus”, Nov. 4, 2008

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Ken’s Qs:

(1) Is it just my imagination or is the market down about 1/3 with most firms crumbled to the ground ?

(2) Wonder why there’s backlash against the top 5% ?

(3) How do these guys sleep at night ?

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Among investment bankers who maintain contact with corporate clients but don’t make trading decisions, managing directors could see their bonus fall 50% to between $900,000 and $1.1 million.

Managing directors (who make trading decisions) could see their bonus fall 50% to $750,000 to $950,000. Their base pay is about $200,000 a year.

Bonuses will shrink less in businesses that have held up relatively well. In foreign-exchange trading, a managing director could expect a 15% drop in bonus to $1 million to $1.5 million

Vice presidents with three years of experience could expect a 55% cut in bonus to $200,000 to $250,000, on top of a base of $130,000 to $150,000.

In commodities, where prices surged and then fell, a managing director could see a 25% drop to a bonus of $3.5 million to $4 million.

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But at Citigroup.’s Phibro commodities-trading unit, where results topped last year’s performance, Andrew Hall, who runs the unit, is slated to receive compensation for fiscal 2008 topping $125 million, according to people familiar with the firm. Other employees of Phibro, of Westport, Conn., also are getting big payments, these people said.

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Source:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122593559284203785.html

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McCain: Hoisted on his own pitard?

November 6, 2008

Note: I love that expression.  See below for what it means.

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Ken’s Take:

(1) McCain took on enormous political risk when he pushed campaign funding reform (McCain-Finegold).  Wonder how he’s feeling about that today?

(2) In rough numbers, Obama spent about $6 per vote ; McCain spent about $1.50 per vote.

(3) Next election: it’ll cost $1 billion to ante in.

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Excerpted from McClatchy Newspapers, “Obama spent $250 million on TV ads in general election”, Nov. 6, 2008

Beginning in early June, Obama amassed about $364 million for the fall campaign, Federal Election Commission records show. Obama’s campaign reports already show that he raised a record-shattering $668 million since entering the race last year, with some donations yet to be disclosed.

In contrast, McCain was limited to $84.1 million in public money beginning in early September.

Flush with a tidal wave of campaign donations, Barack Obama spent $250 million on television ads … outspending John McCain and the Republican Party combined by as much as $80 million [i.e. over 40% more].  McCain’s campaign spent about $135 million on TV ads, and the RNC kicked in more than $40 million for coordinated or independently produced pro-McCain or anti-Obama television ads. Obama’s ad spending smashed President Bush’s 2004 record of $188 million on TV ads.

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Obama’s decision takes away any incentive for congressional Democrats to pass legislation strengthening the public financing law. Any Republican seeking to challenge Obama in four years will have to ask the question, ‘Can I raise $600 million?”  Federal funding “will remain as a safety net for underfunded ‘populist’ candidates,” but won’t be an option for those who want a serious chance of winning.

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Full artcile:
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/AP/story/758740.html

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Hoisted on his own pitard

From Yahoo Answers:
“The word is really”petard”.  A  petard was a bell shaped metal container filled with explosives. It was used to blow in gates or breach walls. It was lit with a slowly burning fuse, but there was always the danger of a premature explosion – the chance that you would be hoisted (lifted) by your own petard. It comes from Shakespeare and I think the quote is actually “hoist with his own petar.” (Not “on” – that’s just become the common parlance.) Some sources cite petard as deriving from the French word for “fart.” A different kind of explosion!”

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20070815011415AA667i9

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The fine difference between a loss and a landslide …

November 6, 2008

Ken’s Take: Does 52-46 really constitute a “landslide” ? 

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“Obama ran four points better nationally than John Kerry did in 2004 and 2.5 points better than Al Gore did in 2000. These small changes on the margin meant all the difference between winning and losing [by a “landslide’].

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Source: WSJ, “How the President-Elect Did It”, Rove, Nov.  6, 2008
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122593304225103509.html

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Oh, those exit polls …

November 6, 2008

Excerpted from WSJ, “How the President-Elect Did It”, Rove, Nov.  6, 2008

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For the third election in a row the exit polls were trash.

The raw exit poll numbers forecast an 18-point Obama win.

On average, news organizations (who underwrote the poll) arbitrarily dialed it down to a 10-point Obama edge.

The actual margin was six.

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Full article”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122593304225103509.html

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$1.6 billion well spent ?

November 5, 2008

Excerpted from Tech Ticker, Nov. 4, 2008

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According to the Center for Responsive Politics, a record $1.6 billion was raised by all Presidential candidates during this interminably long campaign. (The New York Times says the figure could go as high as $2 billion by Election Day.)

What else could $1.6 billion buy ?

  • Health insurance for over 130,000 families of four for one year (based on average cost of $12,000 per family per year, National Coalition on Health Care)
  • Food for 145,000 families of four for one year (based on moderate cost of $9,500 per family per year, USDA)
  • 8 million laptops for the One Laptop Per Child initiative (at $200 each, OLPC)
  • Fill the gas tank of an average car 40 million times (based on car with a 15-gallon tank with gas at $2.60/gallon)
  • Provide a great cable package for 1.3 million households for one year (Time Warner NYC cable/Internet with one premium channel)

Looking at those stats, you’d think there’d be no debate about whether the $1.6 billion was money well spent.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/105994/Most-Expensive-Campaign-Ever-What-Else-Could-1.6B-Have-Bought?tickers=%5Edji,%5Egspc,%5Eixic,SPY,DIA,QQQQ,TLTI

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For the Record: Ken’s Election Predictions

November 4, 2008

OK, here’s what I think is going to happen.  What do you think ?  Post your predictions.

The Election

  1. The popular vote will be fairly close — at most a 3 point differential  — probably 51% Obama to 48% McCain, with 1% to the nuisance candidates.
  2. Of course, the electoral college will be determined in the battleground states.  I think one of two “all or nothing” scenarios are likely : (1) McCain comes up an inch short in most battlegrounds and Obama wins by a landslide, or (2) McCain eeks out wins in all battlegrounds — excluding Colorado, but including Pennsylvania — and McCain wins it. On Saturday Nov.1, I was leaning towards scenaio (1) — an electoral landslide for Obama. Today I’m officially declaring that I think scenario (2) will materialize and McCain will win an upset victory. Why ? Last week’s mini-rally eased some of the Wall Street angst, Catholics are breaking for McCain, “bankrupt the coal industry” woke up Pennsylvania and Ohio, Obama’s Hispanic lead is big but dissipating some,  rurals and white men are coming out of the woodwork, both the NRA and Chamber of Commerce are rallying troops under the radar for McCain, and the GOP’s well-honed micro-marketing turnout machine is quietly at work. 
  3. Dems will get to 57 Senate seats. Al Franken & Elizabeth Dole will both lose.  Ted Stevens will win.

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The Stock Market

  1. If McCain wins, the Dow will close over 10,000 on Wednesday. 
  2. If Obama wins and the Dems reach 60 Senate seats, the Dow will fall more than 1,000 points on Wednesday — the largest 1-day stock market drop in history — closing below 8,000.
  3. If Obama wins, and the Dems fail to reach a 60 in the Senate, the Dow will close Wednesday below 9,000 — will hit 7,500 before the end of the year — will fight back to around 10,000 — and will hover around 10,000 for a long, long time.

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Sure Shots 
  1. If McCain wins, the World will shake its collective head in disgust and  liberals will claim racism, pointing to McCain’s 60% of the white vote while conveniently ignoring Obama’s 90% of the black vote.
  2. If Obama wins, the World will rejoice and the GOP will claim ACORN-induced voter fraud
  3. Regardless who wins, the country will be split down the middle and political  rancor will run high.
  4. Regardless who wins, they’ll claim that Bush left an even worse economic mess than they expected and will start watering down campaign promises.
  5. Regardless who wins, government spending will continue unabated, the deficit will loom large, and the national debt will continue to grow by leaps and bounds.
  6. Regardless who wins, all U.S. combat forces will be out of Iraq by the end of 2009; Afghanistan will be an escalating quagmire ; Osama Bin Laden will not be captured (though he may die of old age).
  7. Regardless who wins, Warren Buffett  will pay a lower tax rate than his secretary in 2009.

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Random Stuff

  1. If Obama wins, the IOC will give the 2016 Olympics to Chicago.  (thanks to Jamie Estrada, MSB MBA alum for the tip)
  2. If Obama wins, Hillary Clinton will get her coveted Supreme Court seat; if he loses, she’ll be the 2012 Dem candidate for President and win it all.
  3. If Obama loses, Bill Richardson will move to Mexico.
  4. Ted Stevens will resign his Senate post in a plea deal, and — if McCain loses — Gov. Palin will self-appoint to the Senate after punishing the folks who thought  trooper-gate was a clever campaign tactic.
  5. Joe the Plumber will make more that $250,000 — just off his book rights and TV deal.
  6. The 2012 campaign will start tomorrow …

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Poor old Warren Buffett

November 4, 2008

Excerpted from AP, “CEOs, famous investors hit hard by market plunge”, Nov. 2, 2008

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The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index, has lost about 36 percent since January, with every single sector – including once thriving energy and utilities – seeing declines of about 20 percent or more.

Such losses in the last year have wiped out an estimated $2 trillion in equity value from 401(k) and individual retirement accounts, nearly half the holdings in those plans. Similar losses are seen in the portfolios of private and public pension plans, which have lost $1.9 trillion, the researchers found.

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Here’s something that might provide a bit of solace amid the plunging values in your retirement accounts: Warren Buffett is losing lots of money, too. So are Kirk Kerkorian, Carl Icahn and Sumner Redstone.

And they can’t just blame the market’s downdraft – some did themselves in with badly timed stock purchases or margin calls on shares bought with loans.

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The average year-to-date decline is 49 percent for the corporate stock holdings of CEOs .

Topping that list is Buffett, who has seen the value of equity in his company, Berkshire Hathaway, fall by about $13.6 billion, or 22 percent, so far this year, to leave his holdings valued at $48.1 billion.

Oracle founder and CEO Larry Ellison has seen his equity stake fall by $6.2 billion, or about 24 percent, to $20.1 billion.

Rounding out the top five in that study were Microsoft’s Steve Ballmer, whose company equity fell by $5.1 billion to $9.4 billion; Amazon.com’s Jeff Bezos, whose equity fell by $3.6 billion to $5.7 billion; and News Corp.’s Rupert Murdoch, with a $4 billion contraction to $3 billion.

* * * * *

“Fishing isn’t called catching, and investing isn’t just called making money,” Hansen said. “We have to remember that things can go down by a lot.”

* * * * *

Full article:
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/11/02/ap5636866.html?partner=alerts

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An Oprah Endorsement ROI – Kindle Gets a Bump

November 4, 2008

Excerpted from Ad Age “Kindle Offers Glimpse of ROI on Oprah” by Abbey Klaasen, November 3, 2008 

* * * * *

Since Amazon launched the Kindle, its electronic reader, a year ago, it has created a swarm of dedicated customer advocates. But on Oct. 24 it snagged the most important evangelist in Oprah Winfrey, who said, “I’m telling you, it’s absolutely my new favorite thing in the world.”

Oprah’s Midas touch when it comes to selling books is well-documented, so it seems reasonable that the same would be true for Kindle.

6%: The amount Amazon’s visits were up the day Oprah endorsed Kindle on her show…Amazon is a top-20 internet site — so a 6% bump can translate into hundreds of thousands of visitors.

3.1 MIL: The number of unique visitors to Oprah.com in September, according to Compete. The Kindle endorsement also drove traffic to her site.. 

80%: The percentage of blog posts about Kindle since Oct. 23 that have mentioned Oprah’s endorsement, according to BuzzLogic. About half mentioned the discount Amazon was offering until Nov. 1 — the discount code being oprahwinfrey.  

479%: The bump in search traffic for the word “kindle” the day Oprah threw her support behind the product, according to Google Insights. 

15,458%: The bump in U.S. web traffic from Oprah.com to Amazon.com, per Hitwise, between Oct. 23 and Oct. 24. 

$35.90: How much an Amazon affiliate can earn per Kindle sale, if it is part of the program that shares revenue when a consumer clicks through those links and buys on Amazon. That’s 10% of the purchase price. Oprah could be making a pretty penny on Kindles if she was part of the affiliate program — but she isn’t.  

Edit by SAC  

* * * * *
Full article:
http://adage.com/digital/article?article_id=132194

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An election trend to watch before declaring victory or conceding defeat …

November 3, 2008

I was about to concede on behalf of John McCain today (Sunday).  Then, a number caught my eye.  With other polls hovering around  a 5 or 6 point Obama lead, the IBD-TIPP poll (the most accurate in 2004) showed a continuing closing of the gap — to 2 points.

So, I dug down into the ‘internals’ of the poll.  Lo and behold here’s what I found.

Way back on October 22, I posted “5 Factors to Watch as the Campaigns Close”
https://kenhoma.wordpress.com/2008/10/22/for-the-record-5-factors-to-watch-as-the-campaigns-close/

* * * * *

Catholics were at the top of the list on Oct. 22 :

Catholics

According to IBD/TIPP (the most accurate poll in the 2004 election), Catholics are currently favoring Obama over McCain 47% to 43%
http://ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309299583450546

Ken’s Take: Watch this shift as Catholic bishops remind church goers that the sanctity of life is a fundamental tenet of the Church.  The abortion debate has been back-burnered, watch it heat up

* * * * *

Well, look what’s happened in the past week:

image

Bottom line: According to IBD-TIPP, McCain has gained 7 points among Catholics; Obama is down 6 in the past week and down 9 from his high water mark of 47%.  So, the current gap is 13 and the trend appears to be in McCain’s favor. And, there are still 10% undecideds.

That’s probably why McCain has been spending a lot of time in Pennsylvania — a state with a lot of rural voters who support him and a lot of Catholics who seem to be swinging his way.

How can the trend be explained?  Well, many Catholic bishops have been explicitly clarifying the Church’s standing on some pivotal issues, and a 527 called the GOP Trust has been blanketing swing states with a hard-hitting Rev. Wright TV spot. To view it:  http://nationalrepublicantrust.com/ 

It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out on Tuesday..

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Bankrupt the coal industry ?

November 3, 2008

Sourced from Newsbusters.com, Nov.2, 2008.  Well-traveled on right-leaning stations and sites this weekend.

* * * * *

Ken’s Take

McCain’s persistence in Pennsylvania has had me scratching my head.  I think the code was broken this weekend. In another post lthis morning, I recount data that seems to indicate a shift in Catholic voters towards McCain (Obama had been leading).  Perhaps even more significant is an audio clip of an interview that Obama gave saying that his energy policy will “bankrupt the coal industry”.  That may be the right answer environmentally, but the wrong answer politically in some swing states that rely on coal for jobs and energy.

Hearing the words is way more powerful than reading the transcript (which is below).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hdi4onAQBWQ

* * * * *

From Newsbusters

Barack Obama actually flat out told the San Francisco Chronicle (SF Gate) that he was willing to see the coal industry go bankrupt in a January 17, 2008 interview.

The result? Nothing. This audio interview has been hidden from the public…until now. Here is the transcript of Obama’s statement about bankrupting the coal industry:

Obama: ” Let me sort of describe my overall policy.

What I’ve said is that we would put a cap and trade system in place that is as aggressive, if not more aggressive, than anybody else’s out there.

I was the first to call for a 100% auction on the cap and trade system, which means that every unit of carbon or greenhouse gases emitted would be charged to the polluter. That will create a market in which whatever technologies are out there that are being presented, whatever power plants that are being built, that they would have to meet the rigors of that market and the ratcheted down caps that are being placed, imposed every year.

So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can; it’s just that it will bankrupt them because they’re going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that’s being emitted.”

Article source:
http://newsbusters.org/node/25829?q=blogs/p-j-gladnick/2008/11/02/hidden-audio-obama-tells-sf-chronicle-he-will-bankrupt-coal-industry

Audio link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hdi4onAQBWQ

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Where McCain & Obama stand on economic issues

November 3, 2008

Source: CNNMoney.com , Oct. 31, 2008
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/106069/Your-Money:-McCain-vs.-Obama#1

* * * * *

The best recap I’ve found — gives Obama some ‘benefits of doubt’, but is generally a factual and balanced presentation of the candidates’ positions.  It’s long, but it’s required reading for responsible voters

* * * * *

Budget Deficit

Now that the government has committed over $1 trillion to stabilize the financial system and economic growth is expected to slow, the country’s growing deficits aren’t something the next president can ignore. Yet neither candidate has adequately addressed what changes he would make to accommodate the new fiscal reality. Both men speak of the need to restore fiscal responsibility while in the same breath promising more tax cuts and proposing spending cuts that are hard to achieve.

Obama

Enforce budget rules that would require that new spending be paid for by cuts to other programs or new revenue.
Reduce spending on earmarks to no greater than 2001 levels and require more transparency on such spending.
Help pay for new proposals by drawing down troops in Iraq war, raising taxes on high-income filers and cutting certain corporate loopholes.
“Once we get through this economic crisis … we’re not going to be able to go back to our profligate ways. We’re going to have to embrace a culture and an ethic of responsibility, all of us, corporations, the federal government, and individuals out there who may be living beyond their means.”

McCain

Originally pledged to balance budget by 2013. But McCain adviser now says it will take longer.
Slow growth in Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid spending.
Eliminate funds for pet projects, known as earmarks.
Help pay for tax cuts by creating new jobs in the clean energy sector and developing new automotive technologies, which in turn will boost economic growth.
“Government spending has gone completely out of control; $10 trillion dollar debt we’re giving to our kids, a half-a-trillion dollars we owe China. I know how to save billions of dollars in defense spending. I know how to eliminate programs.”

* * * * *

Economic Crisis Response

Both candidates have proposed measures to help Americans cope with the economic downturn and stock market collapse. McCain’s proposals focus on helping seniors and investors. Obama wants to let savers tap into the retirement plans without early-withdrawal penalties.

Obama

Temporarily allow penalty-free early withdrawals from IRAs and 401(k)s of up to 15% of the balance but not more than $10,000.
Temporarily suspend rule that seniors age 70 1/2 take required annual distribution from retirement account.
Give temporary tax credit of $3,000 in 2009 and 2010 to companies for each new full-time employee it hires in the United States.
Temporarily eliminate taxes on unemployment benefits.
Require financial institutions participating in bailout to put a 90-day moratorium on foreclosures for homeowners “acting in good faith.”
Let federal government lend to state and municipal governments to help counter the budget crunch faced by states due to the mortgage crisis.
“We must move forward, quickly and aggressively, with a middle-class rescue plan that will create jobs, provide relief to families, help homeowners and restore our financial system.”

McCain

Temporarily suspend rule that seniors age 70 1/2 take required annual distribution from retirement account.
Tax withdrawals of up to $50,000 from IRAs and 401(k)s at 10% in 2008 and 2009.
Reduce capital gains tax to 7.5% from 15% for two years.
Increase amount of capital losses that may be used to offset ordinary income to $15,000 from $3,000 for 2008 and 2009.
Temporarily eliminate taxes on unemployment benefits.
Buy bad mortgages and renegotiate loan terms based on current value of home.
Convert failing mortgages into low-interest, FHA-insured loans.
“…I will help to create jobs for Americans in the most effective way a president can do this — with tax cuts that are directed specifically to create jobs, and protect your life savings.”

* * * * *

Wall Street

In the wake of the credit crisis, both candidates have stressed the need for greater transparency and imposing capital requirements on financial institutions.

Obama

Impose liquidity and capital requirements on investment banks.
Streamline regulatory framework of the financial services sector.
Create an oversight commission that would advise the president, Congress and regulators on the health of and risks facing financial markets.
Give Federal Reserve supervisory power over any bank that borrows from it.
“Let me be clear: the American economy does not stand still, and neither should the rules that govern it. The evolution of industries often warrants regulatory reform…”

McCain

Increase capital requirements on financial institutions.
Remove some of the regulatory, accounting and tax impediments to raising capital.
Examine how banks and other firms value assets that exacerbated the credit crunch.
Increase transparency of complex financial instruments.
“Capital markets work best when there is both accountability and transparency. In the case of our current [credit] crisis, both were lacking.”

* * * * *

Mortgage Giant Rescue

Both candidates supported the federal government takeover of the mortgage insurance giants since they’re central to the housing market.

Obama

Wants to void any inappropriate windfall payments to outgoing CEOs and senior management.
Says shareholders should not benefit in takeover.
Had said companies should either operate as goverment agencies or as private businesses.
“I recognize that intervention is necessary to maintain liquidity for the housing market so that homeowners can continue to get affordable mortgages and homes can be bought and sold in neighborhoods across the country.”

McCain

Called for reform of corruption at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac two years ago.
Wants to clarify and unify regulatory authority of financial institutions, including the mortgage insurers.
“These quasi-public corporations lead our housing system down a path where quick profit was placed before sound finance…And now, as ever, the American taxpayers are left to pay the price for Washington’s failure.

* * * * *

Mortgage Fraud

Both candidates say they want to go after predatory lenders. Obama introduced the STOP FRAUD Act in the Senate and now it’s a part of his platform. McCain called for creating a task force to investigate criminal wrongdoing in the mortgage lending and securitization industry.

Obama

Boost funding for law enforcement programs aimed at housing fraud by $40 million.
Establish new federal criminal penalties for mortgage professionals found guilty of fraud.
Require lending professionals to report suspicious or fraudulent activity.
Establish a database of censured or debarred mortgage professionals, so borrowers can easily check the credentials of lenders.
Establish a standardized estimate of the total annualized cost of a mortgage loan to make it easier for borrowers to compare different loans.
“We must establish stiff penalties to deter fraud and protect consumers against abusive lending practices.”

McCain

Create a Justice Department task force that punishes individuals or firms that defrauded innocent homeowners or forged loan application documents.
Task force would also assist state attorneys general investigating abusive lending practices.
Improve transparency in the lending process so that borrowers know exactly what they are agreeing to.
“Lenders who initiate loans should be held accountable for the quality and performance of those loans and strict standards should be required in the lending process.”

* * * * *

Jobs and Wages

McCain’s plan for turning around the economy focuses on corporate tax policy, while Obama would take a more activist role that includes increasing wages and spending on public works.

Obama

Fund federal workforce training programs and direct these programs to incorporate “green” technologies training.
Raise minimum wage to $9.50 an hour by 2011 and tie future rises to inflation.
Double federal funding for basic research and make R&D tax credit permanent.
Set up $60 billion infrastructure investment bank to help fund public works. Also, create a $25 billion emergency Jobs and Growth Fund to fund other infrastructure projects.
Establish tax credit for companies that maintain or increase the number of full-time workers in America relative to those outside the U.S.
Give a temporary tax credit of $3,000 in 2009 and 2010 to companies for each new full-time employee it hires in the United States.
Temporarily eliminate taxes on unemployment benefits.
Advocate for stronger unionization.
“We will provide incentives to businesses and consumers to save energy and make buildings more efficient. That’s how we’re going to create jobs that pay well and can’t be outsourced.”

McCain

Spur economy and job growth by cutting corporate tax rate and temporarily lowering current rates on dividends and capital gains.
Leave minimum wage at $7.25 an hour, which is where current law will take it to by 2009. Opposed to tying future hikes to inflation rate.
Create tax credit equal to 10% of wages spent on R&D.
Consolidate federal unemployment programs and reform training programs for job seekers.
Temporarily eliminate taxes on unemployment benefits.
“We will build a new system, using the unemployment-insurance taxes to build for each worker a buffer account against a sudden loss of income — so that in times of need they’re not just told to fill out forms and take a number.”

* * * * *

Savings

Obama wants the government to augment low- and middle-income workers’ savings. McCain would help retirees keep their savings.

Obama

Require employers that don’t offer retirement plans to set up IRA-type accounts.
Require companies to automatically enroll their employees in 401(k)s or IRAs.
Provide a federally funded match on retirement savings for families earning below $75,000.
Temporarily suspend mandatory withdrawals from retirements accounts for senior citizens age 70 1/2 and older.
“Personal saving is at an all-time low. A part of the American dream is at risk.”

McCain

Require companies to automatically enroll their employees in retirement plans they offer.
Encourage saving by keeping investment taxes low.
Temporarily suspend mandatory withdrawals from retirements accounts for senior citizens age 70 1/2 and older.
“As president, I intend to act quickly and decisively to promote growth and opportunity. I intend to keep the current low income and investment tax rates.”

* * * * *

Driving

Both candidates want to make every gallon count. Government prizes are pivotal to McCain’s plan, while Obama wants to place more stringent requirements on automakers.

Obama

Double fuel economy standards within 18 years while maintaining current flexibility.
Offer $7,000 tax credit to buyers of plug-in hybrids.
Mandate all new cars be flex-fuel capable.
Provide $4 billion in retooling credits and loans to help domestic manufacturers switch to more fuel-efficient cars.
Aim to get 1 million 150 mile-per-gallon plug-in hybrids on the roads within six years.
Support creation of more transit-friendly communities and level employer commuting assistance for driving and public transit.
“I have a plan to raise the fuel standards in our cars and trucks with technology we have on the shelf today — technology that will make sure we get more miles to the gallon.”

McCain

Raise penalties car companies pay for violating Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards.
Offer $5,000 tax credit for every customer who buys a zero-emission car.
Speed introduction of “flex-fuel vehicles” that can run on ethanol blends and gasoline.
Remove or reduce tariffs on imported ethanol.
Award $300 million prize to the company that can produce a plug-in hybrid battery technology at 30% of current costs, allowing commercial development of plug-in hybrid cars.
“…Our government has thrown around enough money subsidizing special interests and excusing failure. From now on, we will encourage heroic efforts in engineering, and we will reward the greatest success.”

* * * * *

Gas Prices

The candidates agree that consumers need help with sky-high fuel bills, but they have different plans for offering relief.

Obama

Keep gas tax in place.
Keep ethanol tariff to protect domestic industry.
Tax oil profits and use the money to help fund $1,000 rebate checks for consumers hit by high energy costs.
Eliminate oil and gas loopholes.
“I realize that gimmicks like the gas tax holiday and offshore drilling might poll well these days. But I’m not running for president to do what polls well…”

McCain

Repeal the 54-cents-a-gallon tariff on imported ethanol.
Eliminate a current tax break for oil companies, but lower corporate taxes across the board.
“The effect [of a gas tax holiday] will be an immediate economic stimulus — taking a few dollars off the price of a tank of gas every time a family, a farmer, or trucker stops to fill up.”

* * * * *

Fighting Foreclosure

Obama wants the government to step in to help homeowners facing foreclosure. McCain unveiled rescue plan in October debate.

Obama

Allow troubled homeowners to refinance to a loan insured by the Federal Housing Administration.
Require any financial institution participating in Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program to put a 90-day moratorium on foreclosures for homeowners “acting in good faith.”
Create a 10% tax credit for homeowners who do not itemize their taxes.
Create a $10 billion fund to help victims of predatory loans.
Create a separate $10 billion fund to help state and local governments maintain critical infrastructure.
Authorize bankruptcy judges to reduce mortgage principal.
“…If the government can bail out investment banks on Wall Street, then we can extend a hand to folks who are struggling on Main Street.”

McCain

Buy bad mortgages and renegotiate loan terms based on current value of home. Convert failing mortgages into low-interest, FHA-insured loans.
Offer of financial assistance to borrowers contingent upon lending reform.
Provide more funding for community development groups so they can expand their home rescue efforts.
“The United States government will support the refinancing of distressed mortgages for homeowners and replace them with manageable mortgages.”

* * * * *

Personal Taxes

Both candidates favor keeping some or all of the Bush tax cuts in place. Wealthy taxpayers win out under McCain’s plan, while lower-income earners benefit more under Obama’s proposals.

Obama

Leave all tax cuts in place for everyone except couples making more than $250,000 and single filers making more than $200,000. Those high-income groups would see their top two income tax rates revert to 36% and 39.6% from 33% and 35% respectively.
Provide $1,000 tax cut for working couples making less than $250,000.
Introduce other tax breaks for lower and middle-income households.
“We shouldn’t be distorting our tax code to benefit a few powerful interests — we should be insisting that everyone pays their fair share, and when I’m president, they will.”

McCain

Make 2001 and 2003 tax cuts permanent for everyone.
Permanently repeal the Alternative Minimum Tax, the so-called “wealth tax” that threatens the middle class.
“I will…propose…a middle-class tax cut — a phase-out of the Alternative Minimum Tax to save more than 25 million middle-class families as much as $2,000 in a single year.”

* * * * *

Taxing Wealth

McCain would apply a lighter hand to taxes paid by the wealthy than would Obama, who wants to make the tax code more progressive.

Obama

Tax carried interest as ordinary income rather than as an investment gain, thereby subjecting it to much higher tax rates than 15%.
Freeze the exemption amount of estates free from the estate tax at $3.5 million — where it will be in 2009.
Freeze top estate tax rate at 45%.
Raise capital gains and dividend tax rates to 20% from 15% for couples making more than $250,000 and singles making more than $200,000.
“We’ve lost the balance between work and wealth. I will close the carried interest loophole, and adjust the top dividends and capital gains rate…”

McCain

Preserve the 15% tax rate on carried interest – the cut that private equity and hedge fund managers take when the funds they manage make a profit.
Increase the amount of money exempt from the estate tax to $5 million.
Reduce the top estate tax rate to 15% from 55% – where it otherwise will be in 2011 under current law.
Reduce long-term capital gains rate to 7.5% for 2009 and 2010. Keep short-term capital gains and dividend tax rates where they are.
Increase the amount of capital losses which can be used in tax years 2008 and 2009 to offset ordinary income from $3,000 to $15,000.
“Sharply raising taxes on investment is a step in the wrong direction for the competitiveness of U.S. capital markets.”

* * * * *

Taxing Business

McCain is generally considered to be more friendly to Corporate America than is Obama, who wants to increase some companies’ tax bite in a few ways.

Obama

Consider reducing the corporate tax rate in conjunction with closing corporate tax loopholes.
Make R&D credit permanent.
Impose windfall profits tax on oil and gas companies.
Exempt investors from the capital gains tax on their investments in small businesses and startups if they made their investment when a small company was valued below a certain threshold. That threshold has yet to be defined.
Make renewable production credit permanent.
Require companies to verify transactions that have benefits other than their tax benefits.
“…We can’t just focus on preserving existing industries. We have to be in the business of encouraging new ones — and that means science, research and technology.”

McCain

Reduce corporate tax rate to 25% from 35%.
Make R&D credit permanent, but change formula.
Repeal several oil company tax breaks.
Accelerate business expense deductions.
Broaden corporate base.
“Serious reform is needed to help American companies compete in international markets. I have proposed a reduction in the corporate tax rate from the second highest in the world to one on par with our trading partners.”

* * * * *

Small Business

While both candidates promise to help entrepreneurs with friendly tax policies, they differ sharply on how much of the tab for employees’ health insurance and other benefits they expect fledgling businesses to pick up.

Obama

Expand the SBA’s direct-lending Disaster Loan Program to extend loans to companies affected by the economic downturn and credit crunch.
Temporarily eliminate fees and increase the amount guaranteed by the government through the SBA’s 7(a) and 504 programs, which insure lenders against defaults on small business loans.
Extend the stimulus act’s Section 179 tax deduction, which increased the amount businesses can write off on their taxes for capital investments in new equipment, through 2009.
Exempt investors from the capital gains tax on their investments in small businesses and startups if they made their investment when a small company was valued below a certain threshold. That threshold has yet to be defined.
Offer a 50% refundable credit for employee health insurance premiums paid by the employer.
Freeze estate tax rate at 45% and increase exemption to $3.5 million.
“We’ll work, at every juncture, to remove bureaucratic barriers for small and startup businesses.”

McCain

Allow small businesses first-year expensing of new equipment and technology purchases.
Establish a permanent tax credit equal to 10% of what a business spends on wages for research and development.
Issue tax credits to allow individuals to purchase personal, portable health insurance that can move with them from job to job.
Reduce the corporate income tax rate to 25% from 35%.
Cut estate tax rate to 15% and increase exemption to $5 million.
“…I will pursue tax reform that supports the wage-earners and job creators who make this economy run, and help them to succeed in a global economy.”

* * * * *

Free Trade

Both McCain and Obama say they are in favor of free trade. McCain has been a stronger defender of free trade agreements, while Obama has been a more vocal critic.

Obama

Work to renegotiate NAFTA, the free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico.
Opposes the free trade agreements with South Korea and Colombia.
Use trade agreements to spread good labor and environmental standards around the world.
Supports steep tariffs on imports from China if the Chinese keep their currency from rising.
Increase and expand assistance offered to workers who lose jobs due to trade and create flexible education accounts to help workers retrain.
“Allowing subsidized and unfairly traded products to flood our markets is not free trade and it’s not fair. We cannot let foreign regulatory policies exclude American products. We cannot let enforcement of existing trade agreements take a backseat to the negotiation of new ones.”

McCain

Back additional trade agreements and engage in multilateral, regional and bilateral efforts to reduce barriers to trade.
Supports the free trade agreements negotiated with South Korea and Colombia which are now awaiting Senate approval.
Would not threaten to impose tariffs on Chinese imports here if China does not allow the value of its currency, the yuan, to rise against the dollar.
Improve efforts to provide retraining for those who lose their jobs due to imports.
“If I am elected president, this country will honor its international agreements, including NAFTA, and we will expect the same of others. And in a time of uncertainty for American workers, we will not undo the gains of years in trade agreements now awaiting final approval.”

* * * **

Energy Security

The candidates agree on the need to reduce dependence on foreign oil and cut greenhouse gases. Both support a carbon “cap-and-trade” system where companies either pay to pollute or invest in cleaner technology.

Obama

Work to reduce carbon emissions 80% below 1990 levels by 2050.
Invest $150 billion in renewable energy over the next 10 years.
Allow limited amount of offshore drilling.
Require that 10% of nation’s energy comes from renewable sources by 2013.
Aim to reduce nation’s demand for electricity 15% by 2020.
“To bring about real change, we’re going to have to make long-term investments in clean energy and energy efficiency.”

McCain

Work to reduce carbon emissions 60% below 1990 levels by 2050.
Use mix of free market, government incentives and a lower corporate tax rate to foster renewable energy.
Lift ban on offshore drilling.
Commit $2 billion annually to advance clean coal technologies.
Construct 45 new reactors by 2030 as part of a push to expand nuclear power production.
“…When it comes to energy, what we really need is to produce more, use less, and find new sources of power.”

* * * * *

Health Care

McCain would rely most heavily on individuals and the free market to lower costs, while Obama would rely more on government and mandates to make coverage affordable.

Obama

Coverage would be mandatory for children.
Offer an income-based federal subsidy for people who don’t get insurance from an employer or qualify for government plans like Medicaid.
Create a national network of public and private plans for those without other access to insurance.
Require employers to either offer a plan, help pay for employee costs or pay into a national health care network.
“…We need to pass a plan that lowers every family’s premiums, and gives every uninsured American the same kind of coverage that members of Congress give themselves.”

McCain

Coverage would not be mandatory for anyone.
Change how health care subsidies are taxed.
Offer refundable tax credit for anyone who buys health insurance.
Create a federally subsidized state-administered program to offer coverage for low-income people.
“I’ve made it very clear that what I want is for families to make decisions about their health care, not government…”

* * * * *

Medicare

Rising health care costs are pushing Medicare toward an unsustainable long-term deficit nearly 5 times that of Social Security. Both candidates say their efforts to reduce health care costs will help stabilize Medicare. What few Medicare proposals they’ve made aren’t sufficient to address the shortfall, health care experts say.

Obama

Would let government negotiate for Part D drug prices.
Would increase use of generic drugs in Medicare.
Wants to close the coverage gap known as the “doughnut” hole in Part D for reimbursement of prescription drugs.
Favors eliminating subsidies paid to private Medicare Advantage plans.
Wants to legalize importation of some prescription drugs.
“As president, I will reduce costs in the Medicare program by enacting reforms to lower the price of prescription drugs, ending the subsidies for private insurers in the Medicare Advantage program and focusing resources on prevention and effective chronic disease management.”

McCain

Wants wealthy people who are enrolled in the Part D drug coverage program to pay more.
Wants to reform the payment system so health care providers don’t get paid when medical errors or mismanagement occurs.
Favors importing low-cost prescription drugs from Canada.
“People like Bill Gates and Warren Buffett don’t need their prescriptions underwritten by taxpayers. Those who can afford to buy their own prescription drugs should be expected to do so.”

* * * * *

Social Security

To help shore up the system, McCain favors individual accounts and reducing benefit growth. Obama prefers to raise taxes.

Obama

Opposes individual investment accounts.
Against raising retirement age.
Favors increasing the amount that workers making $250,000 or more pay into the system. Considering plan to tax income over $250,000 at between 2% and 4% – half of which would be paid for by the employee and half by the employer.
“We will not privatize Social Security, we will not raise the retirement age, and we will save Social Security for future generations by asking the wealthiest Americans to pay their fair share.”

McCain

Supplement Social Security benefits with individual investment accounts.
Prefers slowing the growth in benefits to raising taxes.
“…You have to go to the American people and say…we won’t raise your taxes. We need personal savings accounts, but we [have] got to fix this system.”

* * * * *

Bankruptcy

Obama wants to reform the bankruptcy process and has proposed changes to help those in financial distress. As a Senator, McCain voted in favor of legislation aimed at curbing the growing number of bankruptcy filings.

Obama

Fast-track bankruptcy process for military families.
Help seniors facing bankruptcy keep their home.
Put pension promises higher on list of debts a bankrupt employer must pay.
Amend bankruptcy laws to protect people trapped in predatory home loans.
“I fought against a bankruptcy reform bill in the Senate that did more to protect credit card companies and banks than to help working people. I’ll continue the fight for good bankruptcy laws as President.”

McCain

Backed 2005 legislation that imposed new costs on those seeking bankruptcy protection.
The law, which Obama opposed, passed the Senate with Democratic support in 2005.

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Marketing – Destroying Starbuck’s Brand Value

November 3, 2008

Excerpted from: “Starbucks: How Growth Destroyed Brand Value” by Prof. John Quelch, HBS Online / BusinessWeek Online

Founder and CEO Howard Schultz had a great concept, and it worked for a while. But too many new stores and diverse products changed the experience … Schultz recognized (that) … “Stores no longer have the soul of the past and reflect a chain of stores vs. the warm feeling of a neighborhood store.”

(Now) Starbucks is a mass brand attempting to command a premium price for an experience that is no longer special. Either you have to cut price (and that implies a commensurate cut in the cost structure) or you have to cut distribution to restore the exclusivity of the brand … Sometimes, in the world of marketing, less is more … Growth targets undermined the Starbucks brand in three ways.

First, the early adopters who valued the club-like atmosphere of relaxing over a quality cup of coffee found themselves in a minority. To grow, Starbucks increasingly appealed to grab and go customers for whom service meant speed of order delivery rather than recognition by and conversation with a barista … many Starbucks veterans have now switched to Peets, Caribou and other more exclusive brands.

Second, Starbucks introduced many new products to broaden its appeal. These new products undercut the integrity of the Starbucks brand for coffee purists. They also challenged the baristas who had to wrestle with an ever-more-complicated menu of drinks. With over half of customers customizing their drinks, baristas hired for their social skills and passion for coffee, no longer had time to dialogue with customers. The brand experience declined as waiting times increased. Moreover, the price premium for a Starbucks coffee seemed less justifiable for grab and go customers as McDonald’s and Dunkin Donuts improved their coffee offerings at much lower prices.

Third, opening new stores and launching a blizzard of new products create only superficial growth … Eventually, the point of saturation is reached and cannibalization of existing store sales undermines not just brand health but also manager morale.

None of this need have happened if Starbucks had stayed private and grown at a more controlled pace. To continue to be a premium-priced brand while trading as a public company is very challenging. Tiffany faces a similar problem. That’s why many luxury brands like Prada remain family businesses or are controlled by private investors. They can stay small, exclusive and premium-priced by limiting their distribution to selected stores in the major international cities. ”

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Ken’s Take:

1. Nice synopsis of Starbuck’s current position and challenges.

2. The issue is strategic discipline — not private vs. public ownership.

3. Eventually, you run out of folks who are willing (and able) to shell out $5 for a cup of coffee that keeps losing taste tests to both Mickey D and Dunkin’ Donuts. And, as budgets tighten, brand panache starts to look like wateful spending.

4. Things are likely to go from bad to worse as stores close and Barista “partners” confront job insecutity — so much for kumbaya.

5. Still, you have to hand it to these guys for their spectacular run.

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Note: Prof. Quelch wrote a series of cases on Black & Decker marketing, including the classic “B&D Brand Transition”

Source: BusinessWeek Online / Harvard Business Online,
July 9, 2008         For full article:
http://businessweek.com/managing/content/jul2008/ca2008079_888377.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_news+%2B+analysis

Thanks to MSB-MBA alum Suhrud Atre for the heads-up on the article

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