Archive for February 10th, 2009

Save Elkart … buy an RV

February 10, 2009

Pres Obama brought tears to people’s eyes last night reporting back from his touch-and-go photo op in Elkart, Indiana.

Portraying Elkhart as Anytown, U.S.A., Obama emphasized that Elkhart’s unemployment rate has soared to over 15% and implied that the pork-laden stimulus package would fix that fast.

No reporter asked how that might happen.

You see, Elkart is a one or two industry town — depending on whether you count “manufactured housing” (i.e. trailers) and RVs (think Winnebago) as one industry or two.

Since many trailer park folks miss “prime” by a couple of points, the credit crunch is a problem.  Since RVs get about 5 MPG, high gas prices tends to dampen demand.

Does Pres Obama plan to breathe life back into credit-risky trailers and eco-unfriendly RVs? Or, does he plan on the laid off unionized factory workers picking up shovels to work on road crews?

It’ll be fun following Elkhart’s revival over the next couple of months.

For the record, I’m betting under on this one.

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“Up to 4 million jobs created or saved”

February 10, 2009

Call me cynical, but Pres Obama’s promise of  “up to 4 million jobs created or saved” sounds like a pretty soft metric to me.

First, there’s the “up to” part.  So, if the final answer is, say 2 million, the metric is made.

But, the real weasle room is in the “created or saved”.  What exactly is a saved job?  How do you know one when you see it?

My bet: For the next year or two, we’ll be hearing that Bush’s failed policies left the economy in even worse shape than anyone imagined and we’ll get bombarded with TARP-like claims that things would have been even worse without the added spending.  Jobs will continue to evaporate, but at a slower rate than some made up “what if” number.

For sure, we’ll have saved up to 4 million jobs.

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Follow the money from DC … to Detroit … to Sao Paulo.

February 10, 2009

Ken’s Take: You have to hand it to the  Detroit automakers … for their transparency … and their  humongous stones.

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Excerpted from Latin American Herald Tribune, “General Motors to Invest $1 Billion in Brazil Operations — Money to Come from U.S. Rescue Program”, Feb. 9, 2009 

General Motors plans to invest $1 billion in Brazil to avoid the kind of problems the U.S. automaker is facing in its home market, said the beleaguered car maker.

According to the president of GM Brazil-Mercosur, Jaime Ardila, the funding will come from the package of financial aid that the manufacturer will receive from the U.S. government and will be used to “complete the renovation of the line of products up to 2012.”

“It wouldn’t be logical to withdraw the investment from where we’re growing, and our goal is to protect investments in emerging markets,” he said in a statement published by the business daily Gazeta Mercantil.

Full article:
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?CategoryId=12396&ArticleId=320909 

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Luxury brands get Sak'ed …

February 10, 2009

Excerpted from WSJ, “Saks Upends Luxury Market With Strategy to Slash Prices” By V. O’Connell and R. Dodes, Feb 9, 2009

* * * * *
When Saks Fifth Avenue slashed prices by 70% on designer clothes before the holiday season even began, shoppers stampeded …
Saks’s deep, mid-November markdowns were the first tug on a thread that’s now unraveling long-established rules of the luxury-goods industry. The changes are bankrupting some firms, toppling longstanding agreements on pricing and distribution, and destroying the very air of exclusivity that designers are trying to sell.

The problem Saks faced last November is one that haunts the U.S. economy as a whole: From car makers to home builders, companies are stuck with inventories that are far too fat.  Saks’s risky price-cut strategy was to be one of the first to discount deeply, rather than one of the last. Managing high-fashion inventory is tricky. Clothing can go out of style in just months, so stores don’t want to keep it around. But cut prices too soon or too deeply, and shoppers start to expect it …

Pressured by Saks, and hit by the worst holiday season in almost 40 years, rivals including Neiman Marcus Group Inc. and Barneys New York slashed prices, too. They cut much more deeply and aggressively than usual … That, in turn, clobbered smaller boutiques …

Saks’s maneuver marked an open abandonment of the longstanding unwritten pact between retailers and designers over when, and to what extent, to cut prices. Those old rules boiled down to this: Leave the goods at full price at least two months, and don’t do markdowns until the very end of the season.

That worked fine in the good times. Demand was high, and so were everyone’s profit margins. But Saks’s surprise discounting forced companies and brands that have their own retail operations … to follow suit or forfeit sales. Giving designers a heads-up wasn’t an option, Saks says, without risking that rival department stores get wind of its strategy …

* * * * *

Perhaps the biggest consequence is that customers are now questioning the entire premise of luxury goods: Why pay top dollar today if big markdowns could be coming tomorrow? … Designers are starting to fight back … Some are thinking about splitting their product lines or withholding some top items from department stores in order to feature them in their own stores … Diane von Furstenberg says another solution might involve producers leasing space in department stores

Mr. Sadove [Sak’s CEO] says he’s working on damage control with designers … Still, he and Mr. Frasch, defend their actions, saying they needed to swiftly fix a big problem that no one saw coming … The change happened “over as short a period of time as you can possibly imagine” … The result: a huge disconnect between Saks’s inventory and shoppers’ appetite …

So [Sadove] floated the idea of deep price cuts. Some colleagues urged drawing the line at 50%. But Mr. Frasch felt strongly that wouldn’t be enough … Their decision: A 70%-off sale would be used, but only in a worst-case scenario, if sales kept declining and shoppers remained bored by less eye-popping 40% rollbacks.

Extreme discounting of luxury goods is perilous. Not only does it potentially leave your best customers feeling duped for paying full price, it also erases fat profit margins of 50% or more … Part of the problem is the designers’ own fault. Over the past 15 years, their products have become so ubiquitous — Gucci is sold in airport, Hermes has mall shops — it’s undermining the image of exclusivity. In a January survey of rich shoppers … roughly half of high-net-worth consumers said luxury brands are becoming commoditized; 64% said they were overpriced …

In hindsight, Saks executives say they may have cut too much in some areas. “We didn’t need to do what we did in accessories” … High-end shoes and handbags would probably have sold out, even at higher prices, because shoppers see them as more practical wardrobe updates than another new outfit …

This year, Saks is spending about 20% less on merchandise to keep inventories lower, but Mr. Frasch acknowledges the number is only a guess. The luxury-goods business is “absolutely flying blind,” … Mr. Sadove, agrees. “One of the big questions that people are asking,” he says, is: “Will people ever buy at full price again?”

Edit by SAC

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Full Article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123413532486761389.html?mod=testMod

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Luxury brands get Sak’ed …

February 10, 2009

Excerpted from WSJ, “Saks Upends Luxury Market With Strategy to Slash Prices” By V. O’Connell and R. Dodes, Feb 9, 2009

* * * * *
When Saks Fifth Avenue slashed prices by 70% on designer clothes before the holiday season even began, shoppers stampeded …
Saks’s deep, mid-November markdowns were the first tug on a thread that’s now unraveling long-established rules of the luxury-goods industry. The changes are bankrupting some firms, toppling longstanding agreements on pricing and distribution, and destroying the very air of exclusivity that designers are trying to sell.

The problem Saks faced last November is one that haunts the U.S. economy as a whole: From car makers to home builders, companies are stuck with inventories that are far too fat.  Saks’s risky price-cut strategy was to be one of the first to discount deeply, rather than one of the last. Managing high-fashion inventory is tricky. Clothing can go out of style in just months, so stores don’t want to keep it around. But cut prices too soon or too deeply, and shoppers start to expect it …

Pressured by Saks, and hit by the worst holiday season in almost 40 years, rivals including Neiman Marcus Group Inc. and Barneys New York slashed prices, too. They cut much more deeply and aggressively than usual … That, in turn, clobbered smaller boutiques …

Saks’s maneuver marked an open abandonment of the longstanding unwritten pact between retailers and designers over when, and to what extent, to cut prices. Those old rules boiled down to this: Leave the goods at full price at least two months, and don’t do markdowns until the very end of the season.

That worked fine in the good times. Demand was high, and so were everyone’s profit margins. But Saks’s surprise discounting forced companies and brands that have their own retail operations … to follow suit or forfeit sales. Giving designers a heads-up wasn’t an option, Saks says, without risking that rival department stores get wind of its strategy …

* * * * *

Perhaps the biggest consequence is that customers are now questioning the entire premise of luxury goods: Why pay top dollar today if big markdowns could be coming tomorrow? … Designers are starting to fight back … Some are thinking about splitting their product lines or withholding some top items from department stores in order to feature them in their own stores … Diane von Furstenberg says another solution might involve producers leasing space in department stores

Mr. Sadove [Sak’s CEO] says he’s working on damage control with designers … Still, he and Mr. Frasch, defend their actions, saying they needed to swiftly fix a big problem that no one saw coming … The change happened “over as short a period of time as you can possibly imagine” … The result: a huge disconnect between Saks’s inventory and shoppers’ appetite …

So [Sadove] floated the idea of deep price cuts. Some colleagues urged drawing the line at 50%. But Mr. Frasch felt strongly that wouldn’t be enough … Their decision: A 70%-off sale would be used, but only in a worst-case scenario, if sales kept declining and shoppers remained bored by less eye-popping 40% rollbacks.

Extreme discounting of luxury goods is perilous. Not only does it potentially leave your best customers feeling duped for paying full price, it also erases fat profit margins of 50% or more … Part of the problem is the designers’ own fault. Over the past 15 years, their products have become so ubiquitous — Gucci is sold in airport, Hermes has mall shops — it’s undermining the image of exclusivity. In a January survey of rich shoppers … roughly half of high-net-worth consumers said luxury brands are becoming commoditized; 64% said they were overpriced …

In hindsight, Saks executives say they may have cut too much in some areas. “We didn’t need to do what we did in accessories” … High-end shoes and handbags would probably have sold out, even at higher prices, because shoppers see them as more practical wardrobe updates than another new outfit …

This year, Saks is spending about 20% less on merchandise to keep inventories lower, but Mr. Frasch acknowledges the number is only a guess. The luxury-goods business is “absolutely flying blind,” … Mr. Sadove, agrees. “One of the big questions that people are asking,” he says, is: “Will people ever buy at full price again?”

Edit by SAC

* * * * *

Full Article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123413532486761389.html?mod=testMod

* * * * *

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Burgers for buddies … everybody has their price

February 10, 2009

Excerpted from the New York Times, “The Value of a Facebook Friend? About 37 Cents”, by Jenna Wortham, January 9, 2009

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You may not be able to get a coupon for a digital TV converter box, but if you’re experiencing a bit of bloat on your Facebook friend list, you can snag a free burger by dropping 10 of your Facebook friends, courtesy of Burger King.

That’s the gist of Whopper Sacrifice, an advertising campaign from Burger King to promote a new version of the company’s flagship sandwich called the Angry Whopper. To earn their free burger, users download the Whopper Sacrifice Facebook application and dump 10 unlucky friends deemed to be unworthy of their weight in beef. After completing the purge, users are prompted to enter their addresses and the coupons are sent out via snail mail.

The application sends a note to each of the banished friends, bluntly alerting them that they were abandoned for a free hamburger.

* * * * *

It may seem like a counterintuitive marketing strategy, but the agency behind the stunt said it’s a way to use the Web to capture a lot more attention for the same advertising dollars.

“Choosing 10 people can take a lot of time. There’s at least an hour’s worth of people’s eyes on your brand. Maybe you can’t quantify those numbers, but they do add up.”

Besides, “we aren’t giving the burgers away -– you have to sacrifice. You are paying for it but the currency is different.”

* * * * *

What price is Burger King placing on a Facebook friendship? At a suggested retail price of $3.69 for the Angry Whopper sandwich, customers are trading each deleted friend for about 37 cents’ worth of bun and beef.

Since the application became available in late December, nearly 200,000 Facebookers have been de-friended for the sake of a hamburger. That amounts to more than 20,000 coupons for free Whoppers.

Edit by DAF

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Full article:
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/09/are-facebook-friends-worth-their-weight-in-beef/

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